International poverty estimates for countries in Africa commonly rely on national consumer price indexes to adjust trends in nominal consumption over time for changes in the cost of living. However, the consumer price index is subject to various types of measurement bias. This paper uses Engel curve estimations to assess bias in the consumer price index and its implications for estimated poverty trends. The results suggest that in 13 of 16 Sub-Saharan African countries in this study, poverty reduction may be understated because of consumer price index bias. With correction of consumer price index bias, poverty in these countries could fall between 0.4 and 5.2 percentage points per year faster than currently thought. For two countries, however, the paper finds the opposite trend. There is no statistically significant change in poverty patterns after adjusting for consumer price index bias for only one country.

The Data for Policy (D4P) initiative (D4P) is a new World Bank engagement to improve National Statistical Systems (NSS) by enhancing the availability, timeliness, quality, and relevance of key data for evidence-based decision making. Working at national and regional levels, the D4P ‘package’ includes production of a core set of economic, social, and sustainability statistics essential for monitoring and evaluating public policies and programs. Good quality, timely, and relevant statistics are crucial to monitor social and human development outcomes. They can also help identify what policies work, and which do not, in promoting inclusive growth and eradicating poverty. Having reliable, timely data is particularly important for poor countries to allow them to allocate limited resources most efficiently. At the same time, the World Bank’s support for countries’ statistical capacity has become even more critical as the world strives to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

This paper presents a simple simulation framework for understanding and analyzing vulnerability to stunting. We utilize Demographic and Health Surveys merged with satellite data on climatic shocks. Children aged 0-5 years are grouped into three categories: consistently stunted, vulnerable, and non-vulnerable. The first group constitutes those who are stunted and will also be stunted in any hypothetical period. Non-vulnerable are those whose likelihood to be stunted is zero. The vulnerable face a probability between 0 and 1 of being stunted. The probability is calculated as the share of years in which the child would be stunted, given the village level distribution of weather shocks over the period 2000-2013. We provide estimates of vulnerability to stunting in Burkina Faso, Northern Ghana, Mali, Northern Nigeria, and Senegal by aggregating over villages, districts and countries.

This paper examines the effect of the intensity, timing, and persistence of personal history of mobility on individual support for redistribution. Using both rounds of Life in Transition Survey, we build measures of downward mobility for about 57 thousand individuals from 27 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. We find that more intensive, recent, and persistent downward mobility increases support for redistribution. Accounting for systematic bias in perceived mobility experience and omitted variable bias and considering alternative definition of redistributive preferences do not alter the basic results. JEL Classification Codes: D31, D63,

Background Maternal and reproductive health services are far from universalization and important gaps exist in their distribution across groups of women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The aim of this study is to determine the magnitude of this unequal distribution of maternal and reproductive health-related opportunities and outcomes and to identify the major sources of inequality. Methods Demographic and Health Surveys data were used to analyse 15 opportunities for women of reproductive age (15-49), pregnant women and older adolescent girls (15-19), across 29 SSA countries. The tool employed is the Human Opportunity Index (HOI), a composite indicator that combines the availability of an opportunity (the coverage rate) with a measure of how equitably it is distributed among groups of women with different characteristics (or circumstances). Decompositions are used to assess the contribution of each individual circumstance to inequality. Results The maternity care package of services is found to have lowest average HOI (26%), while exclusive breastfeeding among children aged 0-6 months has the highest HOI (77%). The other indicators show low HOIs, sometimes lower than 50%, indicating low coverage and/or high inequality. Wealth, education and area of residence are the main contributors to inequality for women of reproductive age. Among adolescent girls, marital status is the major contributor. Conclusions Reproductive and maternal health opportunities for women in SSA are scarce and far from reaching the global goals set by the post 2015 agenda. Further progress in improving women’s and adolescents’ health and well-being can only be achieved by a strong expansion of coverage to produce a more equitable and efficient distribution of health care. Failure to do so will compromise the likelihood of achieving the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). New metrics such as the HOI allows better understanding of the nature of challenges to achieving equity in perinatal and reproductive health, and offers a tool for monitoring progress in implementing a strong equity agenda as a part of the SDG initiative.

Absent actual panel household survey data, we construct for the first time synthetic panel data for more than 20 countries accounting for two-thirds of the population in sub-Saharan Africa. We employ in this process repeated cross sections that span, on average, a six-year period for each country. Our analysis suggests that all these countries as a whole have had pro-poor growth. In particular, one third of the poor population escaped poverty during the studied period, which is larger than the proportion of the population that fell into poverty in the same period. The region also saw a 28 per cent increase in the size of the middle class. Chronic poverty, however, remains high and a considerable proportion of the population is vulnerable to falling into poverty.

Ghana is experiencing its third gold rush, and this paper sheds light on the socioeconomic impacts of this rapid expansion in industrial production. The paper uses a rich data set consisting of geocoded household data combined with detailed information on gold mining activities, and conducts two types of difference-in-differences estimations that provide complementary evidence. The first is a local-level analysis that identifies an economic footprint area very close to a mine; the second is a district-level analysis that captures the fiscal channel. The results indicate that men are more likely to benefit from direct employment as miners and that women are more likely to gain from indirect employment opportunities in services, although these results are imprecisely measured. Long-established households gain access to infrastructure, such as electricity and radios. Migrants living close to mines are less likely to have access to electricity and the incidence of diarrheal diseases is higher among migrant children. Overall, however, infant mortality rates decrease significantly in mining communities.

The Nigerian government uses food import prohibition as part of policies that seeks to protect existing domestic producers and reduce the country's dependence on imports. This paper argues that such policies have negative effects on net consumers of such products due to higher prices. With 70 percent of poor households' budget spent on food, and about 13 percent of the total budget devoted to products subject to import bans, poor households are vulnerable to such trade policies. Prices of some import prohibited food products are found to be higher than what they would be in the absence of such bans. The elimination of import bans is estimated to reduce national poverty rates by as much as 2.6 percentage points.

Proposes a set of policy options to improve the living conditions of Malawi's rural population, which calls for policies that create foundations for sustainable and inclusive growth, increase productivity and efficiency in the economy, and protect the vulnerable. Malawi remains unlikely to meet the Sustainable Development Goal of eliminating extreme poverty. Reducing rural poverty will require (1) stabilizing growth that proves consistent and strong; (2) raising labor incomes of the poor by increasing the productivity of agriculture and facilitating movement into new, more remunerative nonfarm activities; (3) giving larger and well-directed transfers to the poor by reforming existing safety net programs to help them to protect their incomes and assets against shocks; and (4) expanding female secondary education and family planning to adolescents to reduce child marriage and early childbearing, in order to hasten the transition to smaller family size, and generate the conditions for harnessing the income gains achieved through the other policies.

No AccessStand Alone Books11 Apr 2017La pauvreté dans une Afrique en essorAuthors/Editors: Kathleen Beegle, Luc Christiaensen, Andrew Dabalen, Isis GaddisKathleen Beegle, Luc Christiaensen, Andrew Dabalen, Isis Gaddishttps://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0965-1SectionsAboutPDF (35.7 MB)Other FormatsePUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareFacebookTwitterLinked In Abstract: L'idée que l'on se fait de l'Afrique a radicalement changé. Encore considéré comme le continent des guerres, des famines et de la pauvreté chronique à la fin des années 90, le continent africain est maintenant évoqué sous l'angle de « l'Afrique qui monte » et du « XXIe siècle africain ». Deux décennies de croissance économique sans précédent devaient en principe améliorer sensiblement le bien-être des populations africaines. Il est toutefois difficile de dire si c'est effectivement le cas en raison de la médiocre qualité des données, de la nature du processus de croissance (s'agissant notamment du rôle des ressources naturelles), des conflits qui sévissent dans une partie la région et de la forte expansion démographique. Poverty in a Rising Africa décrit les problèmes de données et analyse systématiquement les informations disponibles sur la pauvreté et les inégalités dans une perspective tant monétaire que non monétaire. Le premier chapitre évalue la disponibilité et la qualité des données nécessaires pour cerner la pauvreté monétaire, examine les mécanismes de gouvernance et les processus politiques qui sous-tendent la production statistique et propose quelques méthodes pour combler le déficit de données. Le chapitre 2 évalue la robustesse des estimations sur la pauvreté en Afrique et brosse à grands traits le profil de ce fléau. Selon les auteurs, la réduction de la pauvreté en Afrique est peut-être légèrement supérieure à ce que les estimations traditionnelles portent à croire. Pour autant, même les estimations les plus optimistes indiquent que davantage de personnes vivaient dans la pauvreté en 2012 qu'en 1990. Le troisième chapitre considère la pauvreté dans une perspective élargie en prenant en compte les dimensions non monétaires du bien-être, telles que l'éducation, la santé et la liberté, en utilisant la méthode d'Amartya Sen (1985) axée sur les notions de capabilities et de functionings. Des progrès ont certes été accomplis dans plusieurs de ces domaines, mais les niveaux de résultats restent obstinément bas. Enfin, le chapitre 4 examine les données relatives aux inégalités en Afrique en analysant non seulement les types d'inégalités monétaires, mais aussi d'autres aspects tels que l'inégalité des chances, la mobilité intergénérationnelle dans le travail et l'éducation et l'extrême richesse. FiguresreferencesRecommendeddetails View Published: February 2017ISBN: 978-1-4648-0965-1e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0966-8 Copyright & Permissions Related RegionsAfricaRelated TopicsMacroeconomics and Economic GrowthPoverty ReductionSocial Development KeywordsFRENCH TRANSLATIONCONFLICTSINEQUALITYPOVERTYCHRONIC POVERTYHEALTHMOBILITYMULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTYRURAL POVERTYVIOLENCE PDF DownloadLoading ...

Absent actual panel household survey data, we construct for the first time synthetic panel data for more than twenty countries accounting for two-thirds of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa. We employ in this process repeated cross sections that span, on average, a six-year period for each country. Our analysis suggests that all these countries as a whole have had pro-poor growth. In particular, one third of the poor population escaped poverty during the studied period, which is larger than the proportion of the population that fell into poverty in the same period. The region also saw a nine-percent reduction in poverty and a 28-percent increase in the size of the middle class. Chronic poverty, however, remains high and a considerable proportion of the population are vulnerable to falling into poverty. JEL: C15, D31, I31, O10, O57

Provides an overview of agriculture in Malawi by (1) examining the relationship between agriculture productivity growth and poverty reduction using household panel data for 2010–2013; (2) discussing the recent performance of different crop yields; (3) analyzing the key factors commonly thought to affect agricultural productivity across poverty categories and gender status; (4) highlighting the inefficiencies in the Farm Input Subsidy Program; and (4) discussing the constraints faced by the rural poor in entering and obtaining higher returns in food markets, including poor roads, inadequate transportation, and limited market opportunities. While the Farm Input Subsidy Program continues to account for more than half of agricultural public expenditures, it has limited impact, and crowds out complementary public investments needed to improve productivity. The path toward sustainably improving agricultural productivity and reducing rural poverty requires spending not only on farm subsidies but also on core public goods that prove crucial for long-term sustainable productivity growth.

Reviews trends in growth, poverty, and shared prosperity in rural Malawi between 2004 and 2013 by (1) providing a synopsis of recent trends in growth and the distribution of growth across population segments; (2) highlighting the progress in nonmonetary dimensions of wellbeing achieved and the ongoing challenges rural populations face in terms of poverty, inequality, food insecurity, and a lack of access to basic opportunities and services; and (3) proposing a framework for understanding rural poverty and describing the data sources used. Rural lives improved only modestly in most dimensions, and between 2004 and 2010, poverty remained unchanged in rural areas (at around 56 percent), with the share of extreme poor rising from 24 to 28 percent. Pockets of progress include steady gains in access to primary education, children malnutrition and under-five mortality, but many of those indicators remain critically high, especially for the rural poor.

Examines whether the expansion of nonfarm activities and diversification of income prove evident in rural Malawi by going back to1998 to examine the long-term economic transformation—and focusing on the latest period, 2010–13—in order to assess whether structural transformation has occurred over time then assessing this transformation by looking at the prevalence and nature of nonfarm activities in rural areas, placing particular emphasis on (1) nonfarm self-employment (NFSE) activities,; (2) the amount of income these activities generate and for which types of households; (3) the importance of self-employment for consumption growth and poverty; and (4) the performance of NFSEs across different socioeconomic groups (poor and nonpoor, urban and rural). Overall, increased participation of some of the poor in NFSEs has driven income growth and poverty reduction, but diversification and returns have remained lower in rural than in urban areas and for the poor than for the nonpoor, leaving room for improvement.

Reviews the current system of social protection (SP) in Malawi, and explores ways to strengthen and expand it, by (1) sketching the current SP framework and reviewing its budget and performance at reaching the poor; (2) assessing whether two of its main programs—the Malawi Social Action Fund-Public Works Program (MASAF-PWP) and the Social Cash Transfer Program (SCTP)—have managed to protect welfare; (3) highlighting the main MASAF-PWP shortcomings; and (4) comparing MASAF-PWP with similar programs in other developing countries to identify lessons for improving its performance. Malawi's SP programs have low overall budgets relative to international standards, limited coverage of the poor, and a high inclusion rate of the nonpoor (leakage). The MASAF-PWP has the potential to represent a key safety net for households, but has failed so far to realize its protective role on food security due to a combination of rationing, poor targeting performance and low transfers amounts.

Appendix A illustrates the gross official development assistance to Malawi and the distribution of government expenditures by sector. Appendix B depicts the average caloric intake per capita in rural areas in 2004, 2010, and 2013. Appendix C presents the correlation between price inflation of maize and food insecurity among persons without access to farmland or credit. Appendix D compares the variability of food staple prices in Malawi to comparator countries. Appendix E provides tables showing (1) agricultural productivity in Malawi and select other countries in 2013; (2) shares of agriculture public spending in Malawi, 2007–11; and (3) contribution of investments and subsidies to agricultural growth and poverty reduction in India, 1960–2000. Appendix F presents a household fixed-effects model used to account for household-specific unobservables, with agricultural productivity measured as quantity of maize produced per hectare. Appendix G provides a table showing select characteristics of the rural poor and nonpoor in Malawi (2010 and 1013), including access to credit, wealth index, distance to road, and distance to population center. Appendix H provides the characteristics of public work programs in select developing countries. Appendix I uses tables to illustrate the facts about the participation and effects of the food input subsidy program in Malawi. Appendix J provides cross-country decompositions on sectoral employment and productivity across Africa. Appendix K discusses the history of Malawi's farm input subsidy program. Appendix L discusses the history of Malawi's farm input subsidy program.