Paleofire records represent a valuable resource for understanding long-term changes in biomass burning and fire activity, as well as their drivers. Furthermore, they offer a way to assess fire models under climatic conditions that differ from those prevalent in the contemporary era. However, further calibration studies are needed to refine the link between paleofire records and more detailed characteristics of paleofire regimes. In order to enhance our understanding of the charcoal proxy, we analysed microscopic charcoal abundance and morphology in 277 marine surface sediment samples from the eastern Atlantic Ocean off the Iberian Peninsula and the western Mediterranean Sea, and investigated their link with fire regime characteristics, climate and fuel over adjacent land in the Western Mediterranean region. Our results show that squared microscopic charcoal particles are correlated with forest fires, while elongated microscopic charcoal particles are associated with the combustion of open and mixed vegetation, so that tree vs grass burning can be inferred by the relative changes in mean microscopic charcoal elongation ratios. Microscopic charcoal concentrations are a function of fuel type, climate, fire frequency and burned areas.

Data on paleofire activity in southeastern France during the Holocene are still lacking thus limiting our capability to anticipate fire regime shifts under climate change. Here, we present a 8.2 ky-long high-resolution time-series of microscopic charcoal (microcharcoal) particles from a marine sediment core retrieved from the Rhone prodelta, in the Gulf of Lions (NW Mediterranean Sea). Fire frequency, episodes, size and types of burnt vegetation were determined by quantifying microcharcoal and analysing its morphometry. Our results indicate an increase in biomass burning and fire frequency combined with a decrease in the mean elongation ratio from the Northgrippian (8.2–4.2 ka) to the Meghalayan (4.2–0 ka) stage. This pattern is interpreted as reflecting a shift from the burning of graminoids in closed mesophytic forests during the Northgrippian to the burning of shrub communities in open Mediterranean habitats during the Meghalayan. We also identified 20 fire episodes over the past 8.2 ka, occasionally coinciding with human occupations. Large fires occurred during cold events and summer droughts conditions of the Northgrippian. We relate this finding to negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and increased fuel load under wet winter conditions and fuel flammability under dry and strong summer winds. Besides climate and vegetation, human activity is likely to be an additional driver of fire during the Meghalayan. Southeastern France is currently identified as a region with a high wind-driven fire risk, although its fire regime analysis is biased by intensive fire suppression. We suggest that wind-driven large fires is an inherent element of fire and weather patterns in this area rather than the result of fire suppression strategies leading to uncontrollable large fires.

Vegetation and fire activity have dynamically changed in response to past variations in global and regional climate. Here we investigate these responses across the Neotropics based on the analysis of modern vegetation distribution and fire activity in relation to modern climate patterns, and a compilation of 255 vegetation records and 131 charcoal records encompassing the last 21 000 years before present (ka) in relation to past climate changes. Our analyses on the dynamics of past tree cover and fire activity focus on seven subregions: (1) northern Neotropics (NNeo); (2) tropical Andes (TrAn); (3) Amazonia; (4) northeastern Brazil (NEB); (5) central-eastern Brazil (CEB); (6) southeastern South America (SESA); and (7) extratropical Andes (ExTrAn). The regionalized assessment unveils spatial heterogeneity in the timing and controls of vegetation and fire dynamics. Temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and precipitation exhibit distinct and alternating roles as primary drivers of tree cover and fire regime changes with additional impacts from human activity. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, here covering 21-19 ka), arboreal growth in high elevation sites (TrAn) and in sub- and extra-tropical latitudes (SESA and ExTrAn) was mainly limited by low temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, while fuel-limited conditions restrained fire activity. In warmer tropical regions (NNeo, Amazonia, CEB), moisture availability was likely the main controlling factor of both vegetation and fire, with the effects of low CO2 amplifying these constraints. Throughout the deglacial phase (19-11.7 ka), progressive warming and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations fostered a gradual biomass expansion, and together these changes led to intensified fire activity in the sub- and extra-tropical temperature-limited regions. Meanwhile, increased (decreased) precipitation associated with millennial-scale events favored increases (decreases) in tree cover in regions such as CEB and NEB (NNeo). Between 14-13 ka, most southern latitude subregions (Amazonia, CEB, SESA, ExTrAn) saw a rise in fire activity coeval with a second rapid warming, contrary to decreased fire activity in NNeo amid relatively wetter conditions. Throughout the Holocene, when temperature and atmospheric CO2 fluctuations were lower, shifts in precipitation became the primary driver of vegetation and fire dynamics across all the Neotropics. Changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and gradual intensification of the South American Summer Monsoon throughout the Holocene favored a continuous increase in tree cover over Amazonia, CEB, and SESA, but led to a forest cover decrease in NNeo and NEB. From the early- to the mid-Holocene, the strengthening of the Southern Westerly Winds promoted vegetation expansion and fire regime weakening in ExTrAn. In the late Holocene, human impacts became more pronounced, with a clearer effect on regional tree cover and fire activity, particularly in NNeo and TrAn.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon forest are viewed as connected tipping elements in a warming climate system. If global warming exceeds a critical threshold, the AMOC may slow down substantially, changing atmospheric circulation and leading to Amazonia becoming drier in the north and wetter in the south. Yet, the impact of an AMOC slowdown on Amazon vegetation is still not well constrained. Here we use pollen and microcharcoal data from a marine sediment core to assess changes in Amazon vegetation from 25,000 to 12,500 years ago. Additionally, we model vegetation responses to an AMOC slowdown under both glacial and pre-industrial conditions. During a past AMOC slowdown (Heinrich Stadial 1-18,000 to 14,800 years ago), pollen data evidence a decline in cold- and moist-affinity elements, coupled with a rise in seasonal tropical vegetation. This pattern is consistent with the decline in suitability of northern Amazon moist forests in a model with an imposed 50% AMOC weakening under glacial conditions. Our modelling results suggest similar changes for a comparable AMOC slowdown under pre-industrial conditions. Combined with current disturbances such as deforestation and wildfires elsewhere in the basin, an AMOC slowdown may exert a systemic impact on the Amazon forest. A slower Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich Stadial 1 led to the spread of seasonal tropical vegetation in northern Amazonia, a pattern that may repeat in a warming climate, according to proxy records combined with modelling.

Background The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Results Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. Conclusion The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities.

Fires in Africa account for more than half of global fire-carbon emissions but the long-term evolution of fire activity and its link to global climate change remains elusive. Paleofire records provide descriptive information about fire changes through time, going beyond the range of satellite observations, although fire regime characteristics are challenging to reconstruct. To address this conceptual gap, we report here the abundance and morphometric data for a large set of microscopic charcoal samples ( n = 128) recovered from surface ocean sediments offshore Africa. We show that in subtropical Southern Africa, large and intense fires prevailing in open savanna-grassland ecosystems produce a high abundance of small and elongated microcharcoal particles. In contrast, in the forest ecosystems of equatorial and tropical regions of western and central Africa, low-intensity fires dominate, producing low amounts of squared microcharcoal particles. Microcharcoal concentration and morphotype in marine sediment records off Africa are thus indicative of fire regime characteristics. Applied to down-core marine charcoal records, these findings reveal that at orbital time-scale intense and large, open grassland-savanna fires occurred during wet periods in the sub-tropical areas. A strong contribution of fire carbon emissions during periods of precession and summer insolation maxima in the geological record is thus expected.

While the influence of precession on monsoon at low latitudes through insolation forcing is well-known, the role of obliquity is still debated since its influence on the distribution of incoming solar radiation is small in these regions. In southern Africa, long marine and terrestrial sedimentary records attest of a precessional influence on the South African monsoon at orbital time scale. The obliquity signal is occasionally observed in the geological records although modeling results suggest an influence of precession and obliquity on summer monsoon. Here, we present a record of microscopic charcoal from core MD96-2098 located off Namibia covering the past 184,000 years. Our record of fire activity reveals cyclic changes at frequencies of 23, 58 and 12 kyr−1 and lacks the obliquity signal at 41 kyr−1. Changes in fire over southern Africa are interpreted as shifts in large and intense fires spreading in open-grassland savanna as a result of orbitally-driven changes in rainfall intensity associated with the South African monsoon. We show that, despite the absence of a 41 kyr obliquity imprint, the presence of 23, 58 and 12 kyr−1 frequencies likely stems from a nonlinear response of fire to precipitation controlled by a combination of precession and obliquity frequencies, supporting the influence of obliquity on the South African monsoon.

Fire is a pervasive component of almost every terrestrial ecosystem, but the African continent is rather unique, holding the most vulnerable ecosystems to fire which account for most of the global burned area and for more than half of fire-carbon emissions. Fire has a significant role in ecosystem functioning though our understanding of this complex process is still limited which hinders our ability to model and predict fire. Paleofire records go beyond the short instrumental records of the last decades and can provide long-term information about fire, but only at a descriptive scale and with difficulties in relating it to the fire regime. To address these limitations, we attempt to develop a quantitative calibration model based on the examination of micro-charcoal from 137 surface sediment samples collected offshore the African continent in conjunction with a set of fire parameters (burnt perimeter, fire radiative power, fire spread) derived from satellite data, environmental information (hydrographic basins, vegetation cover, climatic parameters) and a wind dispersal particle model. Our results show that changes in charcoal concentration and morphometry are linked with fire regime and the type of burnt vegetation on the adjacent continent. In (sub)tropical settings, elongated micro-charcoal particles in high concentrations relate to rare but intense fires spreading in graminoid-mixed ecosystems whereas squared particles in low concentrations are typical for frequent but low intensity fires, characteristic for tree-dominated ecosystems. This work provides the first calibration model of micro-charcoal in marine sediments which can be applied to long marine charcoal records to help reconstruct past fire regimes. This investigation addresses a key issue in unlocking specific methodological and theoretical problems related to fire research; it provides a better understanding of the local to regional processes that govern the fire signal and contextualize current and past environmental changes.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events yield precipitation deficits and ensuing droughts, often damaging regional forests, in many parts of the world. The relative roles of ENSO, other natural climate changes, and anthropogenic factors on the forest clearing of Easter Island over the last millennium are still debated. Here, we analyze Easter Island precipitation changes using in situ, satellite‐derived and reanalysis products spanning the last 4–7 decades, and 46 monthly 156‐year‐long (1850–2014) simulations derived from 25 CMIP5 and 21 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6) General Circulation Models. Our analysis shows that La Niña events, the cold phases of ENSO, cause precipitation deficits of −0.2 to −0.3 standard deviation (relative to long‐term mean) in all analyzed data types. ENSO‐like events are further examined over the last millennium (850–1981). A new multiproxy reconstruction of the NINO3.4 index based on proxy records from the Past Global Changes 2k database and Random Forest method is produced. Our reconstruction reveals unusual high recurrences of La Niña‐like situations during the fifteenth to seventeenth centuries, which likely induced significant precipitation deficits on the island. These situations are compared to published vegetation reconstructions based on pollen analyses derived from sedimentary cores collected in three island sites. We conclude the environmental consequences of cumulative precipitation deficits over long‐lasting La Niña‐like situations reconstructed here over the fifteenth to seventeenth centuries were likely favoring drought and forest flammability. La Niña events should be better accounted for among the causes of forest clearing on Easter Island.

Abstract. Sedimentary charcoal records are widely used to reconstruct regional changes in fire regimes through time in the geological past. Existing global compilations are not geographically comprehensive and do not provide consistent metadata for all sites. Furthermore, the age models provided for these records are not harmonised and many are based on older calibrations of the radiocarbon ages. These issues limit the use of existing compilations for research into past fire regimes. Here, we present an expanded database of charcoal records, accompanied by new age models based on recalibration of radiocarbon ages using INTCAL2020 and Bayesian age-modelling software. We document the structure and contents of the database, the construction of the age models, and the quality control measures applied. We also record the expansion of geographical coverage relative to previous charcoal compilations and the expansion of metadata that can be used to inform analyses. This first version of the Reading Palaeofire Database contains 1681 records (entities) from 1477 sites worldwide. The database (DOI: 10.17864/1947.319) is available from https://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/319.

The Mediterranean region is strongly impacted by fires at present day. Projected warming scenarios suggest increase fire risk in the Mediterranean region (Pechony et Shindell, 2010). However, models based on modern-day statistical relationships do not consider interactions between climate, vegetation, and fire. In addition, process-based models must be tested not only against modern observations but also against climate observations different from today to cover the range of climate variability projected for the next centuries. Here, we present a new biomass burning record for the last 8,500 years in southeastern France with a mean temporal resolution of 45 years based on a marine sedimentary microcharcoal from the Gulf of Lion, located in the Rhone River prodelta. Periodicities of 500 and 1,100 years emerge from this record. Most of the peaks coincide with cold and dry periods of several century duration reflecting enhanced burning of open evergreen sclerophyllous Mediterranean forests. Among the 15 peaks of biomass burning, 7 are associated with negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase, 8 with cold events, and 13 with low solar activity. We suggest that cold and wet conditions during negative NAO led to the accumulation of biomass while dry and cold winds during negative East Atlantic (EA) phase favored fuel flammability resulting in peaks in biomass burning. Today, large fires in southeastern France occur during negative NAO or during the Atlantic Ridge weather regime, the latter being similar to the EA (Ruffault et al. 2017). The frequency of heat-induced fire-weather favoring the largest wildfires observed in recent years in the Mediterranean region is projected to increase under global warming (Ruffault et al., 2020). Our study suggests also that the French Mediterranean region might be affected by large wind-driven fires developing in the event of negative NAO and EA modes. References Ruffault et al., 2017 Daily synoptic conditions associated with large fire occurrence in Mediterranean France: evidence for a wind-driven fire regime. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0559-5 Ruffault et al., 2020. Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.09.896878 Pechony et Shindell, 2010. Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1003669107

Fire is a worldwide terrestrial process and has shaped the ecosystems and life on Earth over millions of years. Today, fire regime metrics such as burned area, intensity and frequency, depend on a set of climatic and environmental variables, but under anticipated climate warming scenarios, it is projected that fire characteristics will change, posing great threats to the environment and society. Large uncertainties remain in better understanding this complex process, integrating it in Earth system global models and better forecasting the response of fire to future climate changes. Paleofire records from marine sediments capture information about regional-scale relative changes in biomass burning over long timescale and can help understanding the relationships between climate change and fire activity. We still lack, though, what a change in biomass burning in the paleorecord means in terms of fire regimes. The present study aims at exploring the link between charcoal accumulation in marine surface sediment samples of modern ages from about 150 sites across the African coast and fire regimes on land. It is based on an integrated approach using fire proxy, climate, environmental and historical information, and satellite data. Exploratory in character, this study is designed to investigate this link among different biomes, describing latitudinal and longitudinal transects, and to test the influence of different physical site-specific variables (climate, vegetation, size of the source area etc.) on land and transport-deposition processes into the marine realm. This study aims to provide a novel sediment-based proxy for a key physical parameter unlocking specific technical and theoretical problems related to fire research; it may also help to better understand local to regional processes controlling the fire signal and contextualize current and past environmental changes.

Nowadays, the Mediterranean region is strongly impacted by fires. Projected warming scenarios suggest increasing fire risk in this region considered as hot-spot of the climate change (Liu et al., 2010; Pechony and Shindell, 2010). However, models based on modern-day statistical relationships do not properly account for interactions between climate, vegetation, and fire. In addition, process-based models must be tested not only against modern observations but also under different past climate conditions reflecting the range of climate variability projected for the next centuries (Hantson et al. 2016). Marine sediments are a major source of fire history of nearby land masses. Here, we present a unique 8,500 yr long record of biomass burning changes from southeastern France based on a marine microcharcoal sedimentary record from the Gulf of Lion, located in the subaqueous Rhone river delta. Sediment delivery to the Gulf of Lion comes mainly from the Rhône River draining a large watershed in southeast France (ca.100,000 km2). Due to the direction of dominant winds blowing from the North-North-West (Mistral and Tramontane) and carrying fine particles from the land to the sea, the microcharcoal record likely reflects the biomass burning in the Rhone watershed and South-East of France. Our results show multi-centennial to millennial changes in biomass burning with a periodicity of 1000 years for the full record and between 500 and 700 years before 5,000 cal BP and after 3,000 cal BP. Large peaks of biomass burning are associated with marked dry periods observed in the region. Burning of biomass is higher when the region is dominated by xerophytic vegetation than when mesophyte vegetation dominates. The trend and periodicity of the biomass burning record suggest a predominant climatic control of fire occurrences since 8,500 cal BP in this region.

Marine microcharcoal records provide invaluable information to understand changes in biomass burning and its drivers over multiple glacial and interglacial cycles and to evaluate fire models under warmer climates than today. However, quantitative reconstructions of burnt area, fire intensity and frequency from these records need calibration studies of the current fire-microcharcoal relationship. Here, we present the analysis of microcharcoal concentration and morphology in 102 core-top sediment samples collected in the Iberian margin and the Gulf of Cádiz. We show that microcharcoal concentrations are influenced by the water depth or the distance from the river mouth. At regional scale, the mean microcharcoal concentrations and microcharcoal elongation (length to width ratio) show a marked latitudinal variation in their distribution, primarily controlled by the type of burnt vegetation in the adjacent continent. High microcharcoal concentrations in marine sediments represent rare, large and intense fires in open Mediterranean woodlands. Based on these results, the increasing trend of microcharcoal concentrations recorded since 8 ka in the well-known marine sedimentary core MD95-2042 off the Iberian margin indicates the occurrence of large and infrequent fires of high intensity due to the progressive degradation of the Mediterranean forest and the expansion of shrublands.

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol‐radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol‐driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed‐phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of ‐1.6 to ‐0.6 W m −2 , or ‐2.0 to ‐0.4 W m −2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial‐era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

We analysed changes in mean annual air temperature (MAAT), vegetation and biomass burning on a long and continuous lake-peat sediment record from the Colônia basin, southeastern Brazil, examining the responses of a wet tropical rainforest over the last 180 ka. Stronger southern atmospheric circulation up to the latitude of Colônia was found for the penultimate glacial with lower temperatures than during the last glacial, while strengthening of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) circulation started during the last interglacial and progressively enhanced a longer wet summer season from 95 ka until the present. Past MAAT variations and fire history were possibly modulated by eccentricity, although with signatures which differ in average and in amplitude between the last 180 ka. Vegetation responses were driven by the interplay between the SASM and southern circulation linked to Antarctic ice volume, inferred by the presence of a cool mixed evergreen forest from 180 to 45 ka progressively replaced by a rainforest. We report cooler temperatures during the marine isotope stage 3 (MIS 3: 57-29 ka) than during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 23–19 ka). Our findings show that tropical forest dynamics display different patterns than mid-latitude during the last 180 ka.

Fire-vegetation relationships are critical to understand transient mountain ecosystems and their long-term landscape dynamics, which is essential for alpine forest conservation. In this paper we aim to (1) reconstruct the Holocene fire history at high altitudes of the southern Central Pyrenees, (2) add evidence to the debate on fire origin, naturally or anthropogenically produced, (3) determine the importance of fire as a disturbance agent for sub-alpine and alpine vegetation, in comparison with the plant community internal dynamics applying conditional inference trees. We present and compare microcharcoal and pollen data series, from two lacustrine sedimentary sequences in the Central Pyrenees: Basa de la Mora (BSM), within the treeline ecotone at the subalpine belt (1914 m a.s.l.) and Marbore Lake, above the treeline at the alpine belt (2612 m a.s.l.). We evidence that, fire activity was not the most important factor in driving vegetation dynamics regionally. Our results suggest that spatially, the fire signal might be site-dependent while over time, climate exerted a strong influence on fire activity during the early-to-mid Holocene, showing more fires during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) (ca. 7000-6000 cal yr BP) whereas fire activity decreased with the cold Neoglacial period. At ca. 3700 cal yr BP, fire activity increased coinciding with a regional landscape opening, suggesting that human activities may have strengthened the importance of fire. Fire activity remained low over the last two millennia but a remarkable Holocene maximum for the last centuries in both sequences is observed, likely related to increasing human pressure.