The development of fault-tolerant quantum computers (FTQCs) is receiving increasing attention within the quantum computing community. Like conventional digital computers, FTQCs, which utilize error correction and millions of physical qubits, have the potential to address some of humanity’s grand challenges. However, accurate estimates of the tangible scale of future FTQCs, based on transparent assumptions, are uncommon. How many physical qubits are necessary to solve a practical problem intractable for classical hardware? What costs arise from distributing quantum computation across multiple machines? This paper presents an architectural model of a potential FTQC based on superconducting qubits, divided into discrete modules and interconnected via coherent links. We employ a resource-estimation framework and software tool to assess the physical resources required to execute specific quantum algorithms compiled into their graph-state form and arranged onto a modular superconducting hardware architecture. Our tool can predict the size, power consumption, and execution time of these algorithms based on explicit assumptions about the physical layout, thermal load, and modular connectivity of the system. We assess the resources needed for quantum computation examples that serve as building blocks of proposed applications, quantifying the architectural bottlenecks and trade-offs that remain to be addressed to deliver utility.

Over the past decade, research in quantum computing has tended to fall into one of two camps: near-term intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) and fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). Yet, a growing body of work has been investigating how to use quantum computers in transition between these two eras. This envisions operating with tens of thousands to millions of physical qubits, able to support fault-tolerant protocols, though operating close to the fault-tolerant threshold. Two challenges emerge from this picture: how to model the performance of devices that are continually improving and how to design algorithms to make the most use of these devices? In this work we develop a model for the performance of early fault-tolerant quantum computing (EFTQC) architectures and use this model to elucidate the regimes in which algorithms suited to such architectures are advantageous. As a concrete example, we show that, for the canonical task of phase estimation, in a regime of moderate scalability and using just over one million physical qubits, the ``reach'' of the quantum computer can be extended (compared to the standard approach) from 90-qubit instances to over 130-qubit instances using a simple early fault-tolerant quantum algorithm, which reduces the number of operations per circuit by a factor of 100 and increases the number of circuit repetitions by a factor of 10,000. This clarifies the role that such algorithms might play in the era of limited-scalability quantum computing.

Understanding the physics of strongly correlated materials is one of the grand challenge problems for physics today. A large class of scientifically interesting materials, from high-T_c superconductors to spin liquids, involve medium to strong correlations, and building a holistic understanding of these materials is critical. Doing so is hindered by the competition between the kinetic energy and Coulomb repulsion, which renders both analytic and numerical methods unsatisfactory for describing interacting materials. Fault-tolerant quantum computers have been proposed as a path forward to overcome these difficulties, but this potential capability has not yet been fully assessed. Here, using the multi-orbital Fermi-Hubbard model as a representative model and a source of scalable problem specifications, we estimate the resource costs needed to use fault-tolerant quantum computers for obtaining experimentally relevant quantities such as correlation function estimation. We find that advances in quantum algorithms and hardware will be needed in order to reduce quantum resources and feasibly address utility-scale problem instances.