Spatio-temporally heterogeneous environments may lead to unexpected population dynamics. Knowledge is needed on local properties favouring population resilience at large scale. For pathogen vectors, such as tsetse flies transmitting human and animal African trypanosomosis, this is crucial to target management strategies. We developed a mechanistic spatio-temporal model of the age-structured population dynamics of tsetse flies, parametrized with field and laboratory data. It accounts for density- and temperature-dependence. The studied environment is heterogeneous, fragmented and dispersal is suitability-driven. We confirmed that temperature and adult mortality have a strong impact on tsetse populations. When homogeneously increasing adult mortality, control was less effective and induced faster population recovery in the coldest and temperature-stable locations, creating refuges. To optimally select locations to control, we assessed the potential impact of treating them and their contribution to the whole population. This heterogeneous control induced a similar population decrease, with more dispersed individuals. Control efficacy was no longer related to temperature. Dispersal was responsible for refuges at the interface between controlled and uncontrolled zones, where resurgence after control was very high. The early identification of refuges, which could jeopardize control efforts, is crucial. We recommend baseline data collection to characterize the ecosystem before implementing any measures.

A spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment may lead to unexpected population dynamics, and knowledge still is needed on which of the local environment properties favour population maintenance at larger scale. As regards pathogen vectors, such as tsetse flies transmitting human and animal African trypanosomosis, such a knowledge is crucial for proposing relevant management strategy. We developed an original mechanistic spatio-temporal model of tsetse fly population dynamics, accounting for combined effects of spatial complexity, density-dependence, and temperature on the age-structured population, and parametrized with field and laboratory data. We confirmed the strong impact of temperature and adult mortality on tsetse populations. We showed that patches with the lowest mean temperatures and lowest variations act as refuges when adult mortality is homogeneously increased. Our results highlighted the importance of baseline data collection to characterize the targeted ecosystem before any control measure is implemented to maximize its efficiency.

BACKGROUND:Tsetse flies are the cyclical vectors of African trypanosomosis that constitute a major constraint to development in Africa. Their control is an important component of the integrated management of these diseases, and among the techniques available, the sterile insect technique (SIT) is the sole that is efficient at low densities. The government of Burkina Faso has embarked on a tsetse eradication programme in the framework of the PATTEC, where SIT is an important component. The project plans to use flies from a Glossina palpalis gambiensis colony that has been maintained for about 40 years at the Centre International de Recherche-Développement sur l'Elevage en zone Subhumide (CIRDES). It was thus necessary to test the competitiveness of the sterile males originating from this colony.METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:During the period January-February 2010, 16,000 sterile male G. p. gambiensis were released along a tributary of the Mouhoun river. The study revealed that with a mean sterile to wild male ratio of 1.16 (s.d. 0.38), the abortion rate of the wild female flies was significantly higher than before (p = 0.026) and after (p = 0.019) the release period. The estimated competitiveness of the sterile males (Fried index) was 0.07 (s.d. 0.02), indicating that a sterile to wild male ratio of 14.4 would be necessary to obtain nearly complete induced sterility in the female population. The aggregation patterns of sterile and wild male flies were similar. The survival rate of the released sterile male flies was similar to that observed in 1983-1985 for the same colony.CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:We conclude that gamma sterilised male G. p. gambiensis derived from the CIRDES colony have a competitiveness that is comparable to their competitiveness obtained 35 years ago and can still be used for an area-wide integrated pest management campaign with a sterile insect component in Burkina Faso.