Background Sub-Saharan countries bear a disproportionate percentage of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths despite the efforts to strengthen HIV prevention and treatments services, including ART. It is important to demonstrate how these services have contributed to reducing the epidemic using available population data. Methods We estimated the prevalence and incidence rates from a cohort running over 23 years in Magu District, Mwanza Region-North West Tanzania. Adults 15 years and over who were residents of the Kisesa observational HIV cohort study between 2006 and 2016 were eligible for inclusion. Survival analysis was used to calculate person-time at risk, incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Cox regression models were used for the risk factor analyses disaggregated by sex and age group. Results The HIV prevalence in the sero-surveys decreased from 7.2% in 2006/07 to 6.6% in 2016, with a notable decrease of over 50% for both men and women aged 15–24 years. The incidence rate for HIV was estimated to be 5.5 (95% CI 4.6–6.6) per 1,000 person-years in women compared to 4.6 (95% CI 3.5–5.8) in men, with a decrease over time. Despite the availability of ART services, the uptake is still small. Conclusions New infections are still occurring, with high HIV incidence in individuals aged below 45 years. With new guidelines and the 95-95-95 UNAIDS target, prevalence and incidence must be adequately assessed. In addition, there is a need for additional efforts to assess the impact of HIV/AIDS prevention programmes and intervention services, especially in these areas where resources are limited.

HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés. Trends and patterns in Marriage and time spent single and sexually active in Sub Saharan Africa, a comparative analysis of six community based cohort studies. Milly Marston, Emma Slaymaker, Ide Cremin, Nuala Mcgrath, Sian Floyd, Ivan Kasamba, Makandwe Nyirenda, Tom Lutalo, Anthony Ndyanabo, Zivai Mupambireyi, et al.

The HIV response is hampered by many obstacles to progression along the HIV care cascade, with men, in particular, experiencing different forms of disruption. One group of men, whose stories remain untold, are those who have succumbed to HIV-related illness. In this paper, we explore how next-of-kin account for the death of a male relative. We conducted 26 qualitative after-death interviews with family members of male PLHIV who had recently died from HIV in health and demographic surveillance sites in Malawi, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Zimbabwe and South Africa. The next-of-kin expressed frustration about the defiance of their male relative to disclose his HIV status and ask for support, and attributed this to shame, fear and a lack of self-acceptance of HIV diagnosis. Next-of-kin painted a picture of their male relative as rebellious. Some claimed that their deceased relative deliberately ignored instructions received by the health worker. Others described their male relatives as unable to maintain caring relationships that would avail day-to-day treatment partners, and give purpose to their lives. Through these accounts, next-of-kin vocalised the perceived rebellious behaviour of these men, and in the process of doing so neutralised their responsibility for the premature death of their relative.

There are limited data on the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on population-level adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed data for 2000-14 from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, where free ART was scaled up after 2004. Using non-parametric and parametric (Weibull) survival analysis, we estimated trends in average person-years lived between exact ages 15 and 50, per capita life-years lost to HIV, and the mortality hazards of people living with HIV (PLHIV). Between 2000 and 2014, average adult life-years lived before age 50 increased significantly, from 26.4 to 33.5 years for all women and from 28.6 to 33.8 years for all men. As of 2014, life-years lost to HIV had declined significantly, to 1.3 years among women and 0.4 years among men. Following the roll-out of ART, mortality reductions among PLHIV were initially larger in women than men, but this is no longer the case.

Introduction Existing estimates of contraceptive use in Tanzania rely on cross-sectional or retrospective study designs. This study used a 2-year, retrospective, month-by-month calendar of contraceptive utilization among women aged 15–49 years. Methods We estimated the median duration of contraceptive use, factors associated with use, and contraceptive discontinuation rates in sexually active women, using life tables and Cox proportional hazard model. Results A total of 5416 women contributed to the analysis in the study. Of the 5416 women, 942 (17%) had never had sex, 410 (7.6%) had no sexual partner in the last year. Among the 5416 women, 4064 were sexually active during the period, 814 (21.1%) were pregnant or amenorrheic, 610 (15.0%) were using contraception, and 1203 (29.6%) did not want to get pregnant but were not using contraception. In the 1813 women who wanted to avoid pregnancy, contraceptive use was lower among women over 35 years compared to younger ones (OR = 0.28, 95%CI: 0.19, 0.41), and in HIV positive women (OR = 0.89, 95%CI: 0.60–1.32). On the other hand, use was higher among women who were married/living together compared to unmarried ones (OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.54, 3.23). Using a 2-year retrospective contraceptive calendar, 1054 women reported contraceptive use, 15.8% discontinued within 6 months and 30.5% discontinued within 12 months. Higher rates of contraceptive discontinuation were observed among women who used pills (OR = 1.86, 95%CI: 1.25, 2.77) or injections (OR = 2.04, 95%CI: 1.59, 2.61) compared to those who used implants. Conclusion Contraceptive use was significantly associated with age, education and parity, but not with HIV status. HIV status, number of living children and education are not statistically associated with discontinuation of contraceptive use Pills and injections had the highest rates of discontinuation. Wider choice and greater accessibility of long-acting contraceptive methods with better effectiveness and convenience may serve women better. Furthermore, special efforts may be needed to remove barriers to contraceptive use amongst younger women.

In the era of widespread antiretroviral therapy, few studies have explored the perspectives of the relatives involved in caring for people living with HIV (PLHIV) during periods of ill-health leading up to their demise. In this analysis, we explore the process of care for PLHIV as their death approached, from their relatives' perspective. We apply Tronto's care ethics framework that distinguishes between care-receiving among PLHIV on the one hand, and caring about, caring for and care-giving by their relatives on the other. We draw on 44 in-depth interviews conducted with caregivers following the death of their relatives, in seven rural settings in Eastern and Southern Africa. Relatives suggested that prior to the onset of poor health, few of the deceased had disclosed their HIV status and fewer still were relying on anyone for help. This lack of disclosure meant that some caregivers spoke of enduring a long period of worry, and feelings of helplessness as they were unable to translate their concern and "caring about" into "caring for". This transition often occurred when the deceased became in need of physical, emotional or financial care. The responsibility was often culturally prescribed, rarely questioned and usually fell to women. The move to "care-giving" was characterised by physical acts of providing care for their relative, which lasted until death. Tronto's conceptualisation of caring relationships highlights how the burden of caring often intensifies as family members' caring evolves from "caring about", to "caring for", and eventually to "giving care" to their relatives. This progression can lead to caregivers experiencing frustration, provoking tensions with their relatives and highlighting the need for interventions to support family members caring for PLHIV. Interventions should also encourage PLHIV to disclose their HIV status and seek early access to HIV care and treatment services.

Objective To assess adoption of World Health Organization (WHO) guidance into national policies for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to monitor implementation of guidelines at facility level in rural Malawi, South Africa and the United Republic of Tanzania. Methods We summarized national PMTCT policies and WHO guidance for 15 indicators across the cascades of maternal and infant care over 2013-2016. Two survey rounds were conducted (2013-2015 and 2015-2016) in 46 health facilities serving five health and demographic surveillance system populations. We administered structured questionnaires to facility managers to describe service delivery. We report the proportions of facilities implementing each indicator and the frequency and durations of stock-outs of supplies, by site and survey round. Findings In all countries, national policies influencing the maternal and infant PMTCT cascade of care aligned with WHO guidelines by 2016; most inter-country policy variations concerned linkage to routine HIV care. The proportion of facilities delivering post-test counselling, same-day antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, antenatal care and ART provision in the same building, and Option B+ increased or remained at 100% in all sites. Progress in implementing policies on infant diagnosis and treatment varied across sites. Stock-outs of HIV test kits or antiretroviral drugs in the past year declined overall, but were reported by at least one facility per site in both rounds. Conclusion Progress has been made in implementing PMTCT policy in these settings. However, persistent gaps across the infant cascade of care and supply-chain challenges, risk undermining infant HIV elimination goals.

IntroductionStudies based on high-quality linked data in developed countries show that residual linkage errors impact the bias and precision of subsequent analyses. Since 2015, we conducted point-of-contact interactive record linkage (PIRL) between serological survey data and manually digitised medical records with low data quality from three clinics in rural Tanzania. Objectives and ApproachWe sought to determine the impact of the substantial linkage errors made by automated probabilistic linkage (a commonly used, less accurate, but much cheaper alternative to PIRL) on the bias and precision of inferences drawn from Cox regression analyses, comparing time from a positive HIV diagnostic test to registration at a local HIV care and treatment clinic (CTC) by testing modality (sero-survey vs. clinic). Using PIRL links as the gold standard, we quantified false/missed matches, compared characteristics between linked and unlinked data, and evaluated regression estimates at low, medium, and high (25th, 50th, and 75th percentile) match score thresholds. ResultsBetween 2015-2017, 297 and 147 individuals with gold standard links received HIV+ test results in sero-surveys and clinics, respectively. Automated probabilistic linkage correctly identified 276 individuals (positive predictive value [PPV]=62%) at the low threshold and 43 individuals (PPV=96%) at the high threshold. At the lowest threshold, false matches were more likely to be clinic testers and less likely to register at CTC. These differences attenuated with increased threshold. Testing modality was significantly associated with time to CTC registration in the gold standard data (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 6.42, 95%CI 4.45-9.28). Increasing false matches progressively weakened the association (low threshold: HR 4.99, 95%CI 3.45-7.21). Increases in missed matches were strongly correlated with a reduction in the precision of coefficient estimates (R-squared=0.94; p=0.0001). Conclusion/ImplicationsWhile the significance of inferences did not change, a clear direction of bias was identified. High rates of false matches in this setting reduced the magnitude of the association; missed matches reduced precision. Adjusting for these biases could provide more robust results using data with considerable linkage errors.

ObjectivesProjections of fertility of HIV positive women as ART scales up are needed to plan prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services. We describe differences in exposure to pregnancy between HIV positive and HIV negative women by age, region and national ART coverage to evaluate the extent to which behavioural differences explain lower fertility among HIV positive women and assess whether exposure to pregnancy has changed with antiretroviral treatment (ART) scale-up.MethodsWe analysed 46 nationally representative household surveys in sub-Saharan Africa conducted between 2003 and 2015 to estimate risk of exposure to recent sex and pregnancy of HIV positive and HIV negative women by age using a log binomial model. We tested for regional and urban/rural differences and associations with national ART coverage. We estimated an adjusted fertility rate ratio of HIV positive to HIV negative women adjusting for differences in exposure to pregnancy.ResultsExposure to pregnancy differs significantly between HIV positive and negative women by age, modified by region. Younger HIV positive women have a higher exposure to pregnancy than HIV negative women and the opposite is true at older ages. The switch occurs at 25-29 for rural women and 30-34 for urban women. There was no evidence that exposure to pregnancy of HIV positive women have changed as national ART coverage increased. The inferred rate of fecundity of HIV positive women when adjusted for differences in exposure to pregnancy were lower than unadjusted fertility rate ratios in women aged 20-29 and 20-24 in urban and rural areas respectively varying between 0.6 and 0.9 over regions.DiscussionThe direct effects of HIV on fertility are broadly similar across ages, while the dramatic age gradient that has frequently been observed is largely attributable to variation in relative sexual exposure by age.

Wellcome commissioned research to evaluate how forum partners could make research datasets easier for potiential users to discover and re-use.

Background: HIV/AIDS programmes and organisations around the world use routinely updated estimates of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets to track progress and prioritise further programme implementation. Any bias in these estimates has the potential to mislead organisations on where gaps exist in HIV testing and treatment programmes. Objective: To measure the extent of undisclosed HIV testing history and its impact on estimating the proportion of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who know their HIV status (the ‘first 90’ of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets). Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using population-based HIV serological surveillance conducted between 2010 and 2016 and linked, directly observed HIV testing records in Kisesa, Tanzania. Generalised estimating equations logistic regression models were used to detect associations with non-disclosure of HIV testing history adjusting for demographic, behavioural, and clinical characteristics. We compared estimates of the ‘first 90’ using self-reported survey data only and augmented estimates using information from linked records to quantify the absolute and relative impact of undisclosed HIV testing history. Results: Numbers of participants in each of the survey rounds ranged from 7171 to 7981 with an average HIV prevalence of 6.9%. Up to 33% of those who tested HIV-positive and 34% of those who tested HIV-negative did not disclose their HIV testing history. The proportion of PLHIV who reported knowing their status increased from 34% in 2010 to 65% in 2016. Augmented estimates including information from directly observed testing history resulted in an absolute impact of 6.7 percentage points and relative impact of 12.4%. Conclusions: In this population, self-reported testing history in population-based HIV serological surveys under-estimated the percentage of HIV positives that are diagnosed by a relative factor of 12%. Research should be employed in other surveillance systems that benefit from linked data to investigate how bias may vary across settings.

Objective To measure linkage to care and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation among newly diagnosed individuals with HIV in a rural Tanzanian community. Methods We included all new HIV diagnoses of adults made between 2014 and 2017 during community- or facility-based HIV testing and counselling (HTC) in a rural ward in northwest Tanzania. Community-based HTC included population-level HIV serological testing (sero-survey), and facility-based HTC included a stationary, voluntary HTC clinic (VCT) and an antenatal clinic (ANC) offering provider-initiated HTC (ANC-PITC). Cox regression models were used to compare linkage to care rates by testing modality and identify associated factors. Among those in care, we compared initial CD4 cell counts and ART initiation rates by testing modality. Results A total of 411 adults were newly diagnosed, of whom 10% (27/265 sero-survey), 18% (3/14 facility-based ANC-PITC) and 53% (68/129 facility-based VCT) linked to care within 90 days. Individuals diagnosed using facility-based VCT were seven times (95% CI: 4.5-11.0) more likely to link to care than those diagnosed in the sero-survey. We found no difference in linkage rates between those diagnosed using facility-based ANC-PITC and sero-survey (P = 0.26). Among individuals in care, 63% of those in the sero-survey had an initial CD4 count >350 cells/mm(3) vs. 29% of those using facility-based VCT (P = 0.02). The proportion who initiated ART within 1 year of linkage to care was similar for both groups (94% sero-survey vs. 85% facility-based VCT; P = 0.16). Conclusions Community-based sero-surveys are important for earlier diagnosis of HIV-positive individuals; however, interventions are essential to facilitate linkage to care.

Linking a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) to data from a health facility that serves the HDSS population generates a research infrastructure for directly observed data on access to and utilization of health facility services. Many HDSS sites, however, are in areas that lack unique national identifiers or suffer from data quality issues, such as incomplete records, spelling errors, and name and residence changes, all of which complicate record linkage approaches when applied retrospectively. We developed Point-of-contact Interactive Record Linkage (PIRL) software that is used to prospectively link health records from a local health facility to an HDSS in rural Tanzania. This prospective approach to record linkage is carried out in the presence of the individual whose records are being linked, which has the advantage that any uncertainty surrounding their identity can be resolved during a brief interaction, whereby extraneous information (e.g., household membership) can be referred to as an additional criterion to adjudicate between multiple potential matches. Our software uses a probabilistic record linkage algorithm based on the Fellegi-Sunter model to search and rank potential matches in the HDSS data source. Key advantages of this software are its ability to perform multiple searches for the same individual and save patient-specific notes that are retrieved during subsequent clinic visits. A search on the HDSS database (n=110,000) takes less than 15 seconds to complete. Excluding time spent obtaining written consent, the median duration of time we spend with each patient is six minutes. In this setting, a purely automated retrospective approach to record linkage would have only correctly identified about half of the true matches and resulted in high linkage errors; therefore highlighting immediate benefit of conducting interactive record linkage using the PIRL software.

Introduction: HIV reduces fertility through biological and social pathways, and antiretroviral treatment (ART) can ameliorate these effects. In northern Malawi, ART has been available since 2007 and lifelong ART is offered to all pregnant or breastfeeding HIV-positive women. Methods: Using data from the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance Site in Malawi from 2005 to 2014, we used total and age-specific fertility rates and Cox regression to assess associations between HIV and ART use and fertility. We also assessed temporal trends in in utero and breastfeeding HIV and ART exposure among live births. Results: From 2005 to 2014, there were 13,583 live births during approximately 78,000 person years of follow-up of women aged 15–49 years. The total fertility rate in HIV-negative women decreased from 6.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.5 to 6.8] in 2005–2006 to 5.1 (4.8–5.5) in 2011–2014. In HIV-positive women, the total fertility rate was more stable, although lower, at 4.4 (3.2–6.1) in 2011–2014. In 2011–2014, compared with HIV-negative women, the adjusted (age, marital status, and education) hazard ratio was 0.7 (95% CI: 0.6 to 0.9) and 0.8 (95% CI: 0.6 to 1.0) for women on ART for at least 9 months and not (yet) on ART, respectively. The crude fertility rate increased with duration on ART up to 3 years before declining. The proportion of HIV-exposed infants decreased, but the proportion of ART-exposed infants increased from 2.4% in 2007–2010 to 3.5% in 2011–2014. Conclusions: Fertility rates in HIV-positive women are stable in the context of generally decreasing fertility. Despite a decrease in HIV-exposed infants, there has been an increase in ART-exposed infants.

Introduction: Despite the rollout of antiretroviral therapy (ART), challenges remain in ensuring timely access to care and treatment for people living with HIV. As part of a multi-country study to investigate HIV mortality, we conducted health facility surveys within 10 health and demographic surveillance system sites across six countries in Eastern and Southern Africa to investigate clinic-level factors influencing (i) use of HIV testing services, (ii) use of HIV care and treatment and (iii) patient retention on ART.Methods: Health facilities (n = 156) were sampled within 10 surveillance sites: Nairobi and Kisumu (Kenya), Karonga (Malawi), Agincourt and uMkhanyakude (South Africa), Ifakara and Kisesa (Tanzania), Kyamulibwa and Rakai (Uganda) and Manicaland (Zimbabwe). Structured questionnaires were administered to in-charge staff members of HIV testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART units within the facilities. Forty-one indicators influencing uptake and patient retention along the continuum of HIV care were compared across sites using descriptive statistics.Results: The number of facilities surveyed ranged from six in Malawi to 36 in Zimbabwe. Eighty percent were governmentrun; 73% were lower-level facilities and 17% were district/referral hospitals. Client load varied widely, from less than one up to 65 HIV testing clients per provider per week. Most facilities (> 80%) delivered services or interventions that would support patient retention in care such as delivering free services, offering PMTCT within antenatal care, pre-ART monitoring and adherence counselling. Many facilities under-delivered in several areas, however, such as targeted testing for high-risk groups (21%) and mobile testing (36%). There were also intra-site and inter-site differences, including in the delivery of Option B+ (ranging from 6% in Kisumu to 93% in Kyamulibwa), and nurse-led ART initiation (ranging from 50% in Kisesa to 100% in Karonga and Agincourt). Only facilities in Malawi did not require additional lab tests for ART initiation. Stock-outs of HIV test kits and antiretroviral drugs were particularly common in Tanzania.Conclusions: We identified a high standard of health facility performance in delivering strategies that may support progression through the continuum of HIV care. HIV testing policy and practice was particularly weak. Inter-and intracountry differences in quality and coverage represent opportunities to improve the delivery of comprehensive services to people living with HIV.

Open-access for existing LMIC demographic surveillance data using DDI

Abstract Background: Improved life expectancy in high HIV prevalence populations has been observed since antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. However, it is unclear if the benefits are sustained, and the mortality among HIV-positive individuals not (yet) on ART is not well described. We assessed temporal change in mortality over 9 years in rural Malawi. Methods: Within a demographic surveillance site in northern rural Malawi, we combined demographic, HIV and ART uptake data. We calculated life expectancy using Kaplan-Meier estimates, and compared mortality rates and rate ratios using Poisson regression, by period of ART availability (July 2005–June 2008, July 2008–June 2011 and July 2011–June 2014). Results: Among 32 664 individuals there were 1424 deaths; 1930 individuals were known HIV-positive, of whom 1382 started ART. Overall, life expectancy at age 15 years increased by 10 years within 5 years of ART introduction, and plateaued. Age-standardized adult mortality rates declined from 11.3/1000 to 7.5/1000 person-years between the first and last time period. In July 2011-June 2014 compared with July 2005–June 2008, mortality declined in HIV-positive individuals on ART (rate ratio adjusted (aRR) for age, sex, location and education, 0.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2–0.5) and in those not (yet) on ART (aRR 0.3; 95%CI 0.1–0.5) but not in HIV-negative individuals (aRR 1.1; 95%CI 0.7–1.9). Conclusions: Total population adult life expectancy increased toward that of HIV-negative individuals by 2011 and remained raised. The reduction in all-cause and HIV-related mortality in HIV-positive individuals not (yet) on ART suggests ART uptake is occurring at an earlier disease stage, particularly in women.