Abstract  Georeferenced digital aerial photographs were used to assess changes in overstorey vegetation cover since 1948 in the Victoria River District, Northern Territory, Australia, across a range of lowland tropical savanna habitats and with explicit consideration of known and variable site-specific grazing and fire management histories. Vegetation surveys at corresponding locations on the ground identified five distinct woody vegetation communities defined primarily by water drainage and secondarily by soil characteristics. Air-photo analyses revealed that, contrary to popular perceptions and in contrast to results from other habitats, there has been no generalized net increase in overstorey woody vegetation cover across the full range of lowland savanna habitats. Rather, different habitats exhibited distinctly different vegetation change mechanisms: low-lying seasonally inundated 'wet' habitats have experienced woody vegetation increase since 1948, whereas well-drained 'dry' habitats have experienced overstorey vegetation stability or loss. In almost every instance woody vegetation increase could be attributed to the invasion or proliferation of a single species, Melaleuca minutifolia F.Muell. The extent of M. minutifolia increase was unrelated to historical grazing/fire regime. Demographic analyses for this species revealed that recruitment was often episodic and that synchronized recruitment events occurred uniformly across the full range of historical management treatments, most likely as a consequence of favourable climatic conditions in years with an extended wet season. Heavy grazing facilitated juvenile survival and/or recruitment, most likely by reducing grassy fuel loads and eliminating landscape fire. We conclude that while there has been no generalized net increase in overstorey woody vegetation cover in lowland environments, savanna dynamics are complex, and multiple change mechanisms have occurred simultaneously in different habitats, some of which have been significantly transformed since 1948. Where net woody vegetation increase has occurred it is primarily a natural consequence of episodic M. minutifolia establishment in climatically favourable years, but the extent and magnitude of this effect is likely mediated by fire/grazing regime.

Aerial photographs were used to assess changes in woody vegetation cover at 122 locations within a sandstone-plateau savanna woodland in the Victoria River region, Northern Territory, Australia. Despite locally variable vegetation responses, there has been little change in total woody vegetation cover since 1948. Thirty-three locations were also surveyed on the ground. It was found that sites for which vegetation cover had changed over the 50-y period were not significantly different from stable sites in terms of floristic composition, recent fire history, demographic stability among the dominant tree species, or edaphic setting. However, two of the dominant overstorey tree species – Eucalyptus tetrodonta and Eucalyptus phoenicea – showed significantly higher mortality on sites that had experienced vegetation cover decline since 1948. We suggest that observed changes in woody vegetation cover are a consequence of natural cycles of die-back and recovery of at least these two species in response to spatially heterogenous variables such as dry-season moisture stress. Although the widespread decline of fire-sensitive Callitris intratropica populations clearly indicates a historical shift from lower- to higher-intensity burning conditions within the study area, we reject the hypothesis of a landscape-wide process such as changing fire regimes or climatic change as the driving factor behind large-scale vegetation changes detected by aerial photographic analysis.

Aim Anecdotal historical and photographic evidence suggests that woody vegetation is increasing dramatically in some northern Australian savanna habitats. Vegetation change in savannas has important implications for pastoral land-use, conservation management, and landscape-scale carbon storage, and informs theoretical debates about ecosystem function. This study seeks to determine the nature, extent and cause(s) of woody vegetation change in a seasonally flooded alluvial savanna habitat.Location The study area is located within the seasonally inundated alluvial zone of the tidal portion of the Victoria River, Northern Territory, Australia. The study area has been grazed by domestic stock since c. 1900, prior to which the area was inhabited and more likely regularly burnt by Aboriginal people for thousands of years.Methods Digital georeferenced aerial photographic coverages were used to examine and quantify woody vegetation change between 1948 and 1993. Transect surveys of woody and herbaceous vegetation were carried out to ground-truth air-photo results and determine the nature and causes of observed vegetation changes.Results There has been a dramatic increase in woody vegetation cover throughout the study area. Vegetation change patterns are roughly uniform across the full range of edaphic habitat variation and are unrelated to the depositional age of fluvial sediments. Two woody species, Eucalyptus microtheca and Excoecaria parvifolia, are predominantly responsible for observed increases. Demographic analyses reveal that woody invasions have been episodic and indicate that in most locations peak woody species establishment occurred in the mid-1970s. Grasses are almost absent in a majority of habitats within the study area. Instead, large areas are covered by scalded soil, dense invasive weed populations, and unpalatable forbs and sedges. What grasses do occur are predominantly of very low value for grazing. The condition of the herbaceous layer renders most of the study area almost completely non-flammable; what fires do burn are small and of low intensity.Main conclusions Multiple working hypotheses explaining observed patterns of woody vegetation increase were considered and rejected in turn. The only hypothesis consistent with the evidence is as follows: (1) observed changes are a direct consequence of extreme overgrazing by cattle, most likely when stocking rates peaked in the mid-1970s; (2) prolonged heavy grazing effected the complete transformation of much of the herbaceous vegetation to a new state that is not flammable; and (3) in the absence of regular fire mortality, woody vegetation increased rapidly. The relatively treeless system that existed in 1948 was apparently stable and resilient to moderate grazing levels, and perhaps also to episodic heavy grazing events. However, grazing intensity in excess of a sustainable threshold has forced a transition that is irreversible in the foreseeable future. Stable-state transitions such as this one inform debates at the heart of ecological theory, such as the nature of stability, resilience, equilibrium and carrying capacity in dynamic savanna ecosystems.