Abstract. Baltic Earth is an independent research network of scientists from all Baltic Sea countries that promotes regional Earth system research. Within the framework of this network, the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEARs) were produced in the period 2019–2022. These are a collection of 10 review articles summarising current knowledge on the environmental and climatic state of the Earth system in the Baltic Sea region and its changes in the past (palaeoclimate), present (historical period with instrumental observations) and prospective future (until 2100) caused by natural variability, climate change and other human activities. The division of topics among articles follows the grand challenges and selected themes of the Baltic Earth Science Plan, such as the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Each review article contains an introduction, the current state of knowledge, knowledge gaps, conclusions and key messages; the latter are the bases on which recommendations for future research are made. Based on the BEARs, Baltic Earth has published an information leaflet on climate change in the Baltic Sea as part of its outreach work, which has been published in two languages so far, and organised conferences and workshops for stakeholders, in collaboration with the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (Helsinki Commission, HELCOM).

Abstract. Baltic Earth is an independent research network of scientists from all Baltic Sea countries that promotes regional Earth system research. Within the framework of this network, the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEARs) were produced in the period 2019–2022. These are a collection of 10 review articles summarising current knowledge on the environmental and climatic state of the Earth system in the Baltic Sea region and its changes in the past (palaeoclimate), present (historical period with instrumental observations) and prospective future (until 2100) caused by natural variability, climate change and other human activities. The division of topics between articles follows the grand challenges and selected themes of the Baltic Earth Science Plan, such as the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles, extremes and natural hazards, sea level dynamics and coastal erosion, marine ecosystems, coupled Earth system models, scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea, and climate change and impacts of human use. Each review article contains an introduction, the current state of knowledge, knowledge gaps, conclusions and key statements, based on which recommendations are made for future research. In parallel, Baltic Earth's ongoing outreach work has led to the publication of an information leaflet on climate change in the Baltic Sea, which has been published in two languages so far, and the organisation of stakeholder conferences and workshops.

With human land-use activities expected to increase in the future it is important to understand how LULCC (Land-Use Land-Cover Change) activities affect the Earth’s surface, climate and biogeochemical cycles. Here we use the CMIP6 version of the EC-Earth3 Earth System Model (ESM) to assess the impacts of LULCC on surface fluxes of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). EC-Earth is one of the first ESMs to interactively couple a 2nd generation dynamical vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) with mechanistic C-N dynamics in soil and vegetation to an atmospheric model. The size, age structure, temporal dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of the vegetated landscape are represented and simulated dynamically in LPJ-GUESS. Such functionality has been argued to be essential to correctly capture biogeochemical and biophysical land-atmosphere interactions on longer timescales and has been shown to improve their representation compared to more common area-based vegetation schemes. The patch based structure of LPJ-GUESS also makes it possible to represent the history (soil, litter status) of a single patch as it might have been involved in several land-use transitions. We focus on the effects of gross land-use transitions (“land-hist”), net land-use transitions (“land-noShiftcultivate”) and fixing land-use at 1850 levels (“land-noLu”). Global carbon pools increase in simulations without LUC while they decline in those applying LUC, with gross-transitions resulting in values around 3% (or 75 Pg) lower than simulations with net-transitions. This is mainly driven by vegetation carbon changes in the tropical to mid-latitude regions where gross-transitions lead to a significantly higher decrease in high vegetation cover. Furthermore, this is reflected differently for different species, e.g. while there is no change in the LAI of boreal needleleaf trees in net-transitions, their presence is significantly reduced in gross transition scenarios giving way to the growth of fast-growing shade-intolerant species. Moreover, fire-fluxes, which in these experiments are mainly driven by fuel-availability, are also lowest in the gross-transition simulations. Finally, we will show that the level of complexity with which shifting cultivation is treated has implications for the biogeophysical feedbacks in ESMs resulting from changes to surface albedo and latent heat exchange. The experiments we conducted clearly indicate the benefits of dynamic vegetation and the importance of using gross transitions in land use-change (LUC) studies.

With human land-use activities expected to increase in the future, it is important to understand how LULCC (Land-Use Land-Cover Change) activities affect the Earth’s surface, climate and biogeochemical cycles. Here we use the CMIP6 version of the EC-Earth3 Earth System Model (ESM) to assess the impacts of LULCC on surface fluxes of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). EC-Earth is one of the first ESMs to interactively couple a 2nd generation dynamical vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) with mechanistic C-N dynamics in soil and vegetation to an atmospheric model. The size, age structure, temporal dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of the vegetated landscape are represented and simulated dynamically in LPJ-GUESS. Such functionality has been argued to be essential to correctly capture biogeochemical and biophysical land-atmosphere interactions on longer timescales and has been shown to improve their representation compared to more common area-based vegetation schemes. The patch-based structure of LPJ-GUESS also makes it possible to represent the history (soil, litter status) of a single patch as it might have been involved in several land-use transitions. We examine the effects on surface fluxes of carbon and nitrogen in three LUMIP simulations, for both offline land-only and fully coupled ESM runs. We focus on the effects of gross land-use transitions (“land-hist”), net land-use transitions (“land-noShiftcultivate”) and fixing land-use at 1850 levels (“land-noLu”). In general, EC-Earth shows a higher historical C loss due to LULCC than other ESMs, but our results are still in line with LULCC emissions constrained by biomass observations. Gross transitions result in a higher historical C loss compared to net transitions, while runs without LULCC (noLu) show a constant gain in C. LULCC also affects the total N content of the system and hence soil nutrient content. Gross (net) LULCC leads to a loss of 1.5 (1.0) PgN over the historical period whereas 1.5 PgN is gained in noLu runs. As increases in global fertilization and harvest fluxes more or less offset one another for both gross and net LULCC, the differences in total N pools derive from biological nitrogen fixation (BNF), soil fluxes, leaching and land-use associated fluxes of N. Changes in soil fertility result in a higher productivity for net compared to gross transitions, mainly in the Tropics. Net transitions also results in less N lost through land-use change and hence a higher net mineralisation rate. This is mainly notable in the Tropics where the initially organic matter content is lower compared to temperate and boreal regions. The productivity and harvested biomass from crops are similar for gross and net transitions as their N source mainly comes from N fertilization, with the exception of some developing countries where N fertilisation is not as high as in industrialised countries. Based on these examples of how the N cycle and productivity are affected by LULCC, we argue that the full complexity of gross transitions is required to accurately predict how LULCC affects the N cycle, productivity and biogeophysical feedbacks to the climate.

The central goal of ECLAIRE is to assess how climate change will alter the extent to which air pollutants threaten terrestrial ecosystems. Particular attention has been given to nitrogen compounds, especially nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3), as well as Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) in relation to tropospheric ozone (O3) formation, including their interactions with aerosol components. ECLAIRE has combined a broad program of field and laboratory experimentation and modelling of pollution fluxes and ecosystem impacts, advancing both mechanistic understanding and providing support to European policy makers. The central finding of ECLAIRE is that future climate change is expected to worsen the threat of air pollutants on Europe’s ecosystems. Firstly, climate warming is expected to increase the emissions of many trace gases, such as agricultural NH3, the soil component of NOx emissions and key BVOCs. Experimental data and numerical models show how these effects will tend to increase atmospheric N deposition in future. By contrast, the net effect on tropospheric O3 is less clear. This is because parallel increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations will offset the temperature-driven increase for some BVOCs, such as isoprene. By contrast, there is currently insufficient evidence to be confident that CO2 will offset anticipated climate increases in monoterpene emissions. Secondly, climate warming is found to be likely to increase the vulnerability of ecosystems towards air pollutant exposure or atmospheric deposition. Such effects may occur as a consequence of combined perturbation, as well as through specific interactions, such as between drought, O3, N and aerosol exposure. These combined effects of climate change are expected to offset part of the benefit of current emissions control policies. Unless decisive mitigation actions are taken, it is anticipated that ongoing climate warming will increase agricultural and other biogenic emissions, posing a challenge for national emissions ceilings and air quality objectives related to nitrogen and ozone pollution. The O3 effects will be further worsened if progress is not made to curb increases in methane (CH4) emissions in the northern hemisphere. Other key findings of ECLAIRE are that: 1) N deposition and O3 have adverse synergistic effects. Exposure to ambient O3 concentrations was shown to reduce the Nitrogen Use Efficiency of plants, both decreasing agricultural production and posing an increased risk of other forms of nitrogen pollution, such as nitrate leaching (NO3-) and the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O); 2) within-canopy dynamics for volatile aerosol can increase dry deposition and shorten atmospheric lifetimes; 3) ambient aerosol levels reduce the ability of plants to conserve water under drought conditions; 4) low-resolution mapping studies tend to underestimate the extent of local critical loads exceedance; 5) new dose-response functions can be used to improve the assessment of costs, including estimation of the value of damage due to air pollution effects on ecosystems, 6) scenarios can be constructed that combine technical mitigation measures with dietary change options (reducing livestock products in food down to recommended levels for health criteria), with the balance between the two strategies being a matter for future societal discussion. ECLAIRE has supported the revision process for the National Emissions Ceilings Directive and will continue to deliver scientific underpinning into the future for the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution.

The central goal of ECLAIRE is to assess how climate change will alter the extent to which air pollutants threaten terrestrial ecosystems. Particular attention has been given to nitrogen compounds, especially nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3), as well as Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) in relation to tropospheric ozone (O3) formation, including their interactions with aerosol components. ECLAIRE has combined a broad program of field and laboratory experimentation and modelling of pollution fluxes and ecosystem impacts, advancing both mechanistic understanding and providing support to European policy makers. The central finding of ECLAIRE is that future climate change is expected to worsen the threat of air pollutants on Europe’s ecosystems. Firstly, climate warming is expected to increase the emissions of many trace gases, such as agricultural NH3, the soil component of NOx emissions and key BVOCs. Experimental data and numerical models show how these effects will tend to increase atmospheric N deposition in future. By contrast, the net effect on tropospheric O3 is less clear. This is because parallel increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations will offset the temperature-driven increase for some BVOCs, such as isoprene. By contrast, there is currently insufficient evidence to be confident that CO2 will offset anticipated climate increases in monoterpene emissions. Secondly, climate warming is found to be likely to increase the vulnerability of ecosystems towards air pollutant exposure or atmospheric deposition. Such effects may occur as a consequence of combined perturbation, as well as through specific interactions, such as between drought, O3, N and aerosol exposure. These combined effects of climate change are expected to offset part of the benefit of current emissions control policies. Unless decisive mitigation actions are taken, it is anticipated that ongoing climate warming will increase agricultural and other biogenic emissions, posing a challenge for national emissions ceilings and air quality objectives related to nitrogen and ozone pollution. The O3 effects will be further worsened if progress is not made to curb increases in methane (CH4) emissions in the northern hemisphere. Other key findings of ECLAIRE are that: 1) N deposition and O3 have adverse synergistic effects. Exposure to ambient O3 concentrations was shown to reduce the Nitrogen Use Efficiency of plants, both decreasing agricultural production and posing an increased risk of other forms of nitrogen pollution, such as nitrate leaching (NO3-) and the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O); 2) within-canopy dynamics for volatile aerosol can increase dry deposition and shorten atmospheric lifetimes; 3) ambient aerosol levels reduce the ability of plants to conserve water under drought conditions; 4) low-resolution mapping studies tend to underestimate the extent of local critical loads exceedance; 5) new dose-response functions can be used to improve the assessment of costs, including estimation of the value of damage due to air pollution effects on ecosystems, 6) scenarios can be constructed that combine technical mitigation measures with dietary change options (reducing livestock products in food down to recommended levels for health criteria), with the balance between the two strategies being a matter for future societal discussion. ECLAIRE has supported the revision process for the National Emissions Ceilings Directive and will continue to deliver scientific underpinning into the future for the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution.

Regional vegetation‐climate modelling studies have typically focused on boreal or temperate ecosystems in North America and Europe, almost completely overlooking tropical ecosystems. We present the first results of simulated regional vegetation‐climate dynamics in Middle America as simulated by the model, LPJ‐GUESS. The Kappa statistic indicated poor agreement, with a Kappa value of 0.301. When we modified the Kappa statistic by aggregating cell sizes and using generalized biomes, the Kappa value increased to 0.543, indicating a fair agreement. Total LAI simulated from LPJ‐GUESS was strongly correlated to remotely sensed LAI values ( r = 0.75). Our simulations indicate that fire frequency was overestimated in tropical moist forests and underestimated in savannas. This underestimation of fire resulted in an over‐simulation of dry tropical forest at the expense of savanna. We highlight additional reasons for the initially poor representation of vegetation in Middle America, including factors such as non‐parameterized plant functional types (desert shrub, cacti, and other succulents), rugged topography, and an insufficient representation of soil.