The global land base is under increasing pressure to provide food for a growing population. This report describes how increasing population, income, and agricultural productivity may affect global production and consumption of crops and food products by 2050. Results show that in an income-driven food demand scenario, production of world crop calories increases by 47 percent from 2011 to 2050. Demand for food calories and crop calories increases over time in all scenarios, with most of the adjustment through increases in crop yield (intensification). The amount of cropland also increases (extensification) but less on a percentage basis

ObjectiveTo quantify global relationships between sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake and prices and examine the potential effectiveness of tax policy.DesignSSB intake data by country, age and sex from the Global Dietary Database were combined with gross domestic product and price data from the World Bank. Intake responsiveness to income and prices was estimated accounting for national income, age and sex differences.Setting164 countries.PopulationFull adult population in each country.Main outcome measuresA consumer demand modelling framework was used to estimate the relationship between SSB intake and prices and derive own-price elasticities (measures of percentage changes in intake from a 1% price change) globally by age and sex. We simulated how a 20% tax would impact SSB intake globally. Tax policy outcomes were examined across countries by global income decile for representative age and sex subgroups.ResultsOwn-price responsiveness was highest in lowest income countries, ranging from −0.70 (p<0.100) for women, age 50, to −1.91 (p<0.001) for men, age 80. In the highest income countries, responsiveness was as high as −0.49 (p<0.001) (men, age 20), but was mostly insignificant for older adults. Overall, elasticities were strongest (more negative) at the youngest and oldest age groups, and mostly insignificant for middle-aged adults, particularly in middle-income and high-income countries. Sex differences were mostly negligible. Potential intake reductions from a 20% tax in lowest income countries ranged from 14.5% (95% CI: 29.5%, −0.4%) in women, 35 ≤ age < 60, to 24.9% (44.4%, 5.3%) in men, age ≥60. Intake reductions decreased with country income overall, and were mostly insignificant for middle-aged adults.ConclusionsThese findings estimate the global price-responsiveness of SSB intake by age and sex, informing ongoing policy discussions on potential effects of taxes.

Based on ERS’s annual 10-year projections for key food security indicators for 76 low- and middle-income countries, Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be the most food insecure region among all those studied, though levels of food security vary within the region.

Projections for the next decade (2018-28) suggest that the share of the population that is food insecure in 76 low- and middle-income countries will fall from 21.1. percent in 2018 to 10.4 percent, but disparities persist between regions.

BACKGROUND:While income and prices are key drivers of dietary choices, how their influence varies by food category, nation, and demographics is not well established. Based on intake data for 164 countries and 11 food categories, we examined how income and food prices relate to food intake globally, including by world region, age, and sex.METHODS:We used 2010 intake data from the Global Dietary Database, the first database of consumption estimates for major food categories by country, age, and sex. We combined these data with national per capita GDP and food price data. We estimated intake responsiveness to income and prices for each food category, accounting for differences by national income, world region, age, and sex.RESULTS:We identified several differences in intake responsiveness. For example, rising income was estimated to increase milk intake most strongly in Sub-Saharan Africa and fruit intake most strongly among older women globally. Comparing our intake results to previous findings based on expenditure data, we found more goods that exhibited declining intake in response to rising incomes, fewer significant relationships for a number of food categories, particularly for higher income regions, and whereas in prior studies, elasticities mostly decrease with national income, we identified food categories where this was not the case.CONCLUSION:The results of this study show heterogeneous associations among income, prices, and food intakes. Policymakers should consider the price and income elasticities of certain foods, as well as the role of demographics within and across countries, as they address global nutrition and health challenges.

We analyze several dimensions of food security in Ethiopia, taking into account projected population growth, economic growth, and price information to estimate future food consumption by income decile. The analysis looks at the potential impact of large consumer price increases on food security metrics. We use the new USDA/ ERS demand-based modeling framework in order to carry out this study. The modeling approach captures economic behavior by making food demand systematically responsive to income and price changes based on a demand specification well-grounded in microeconomic foundations. The projected change in food consumption can be apportioned to population growth, income growth, and changes in food prices and real exchange rates. We found that Ethiopia is highly food insecure, with 54% of the population consuming less than 2,100 calories a day at calibration levels. Income growth under unchanged prices mitigates food insecurity with the number of food-insecure people falling to 42.5 million in 2016. If domestic prices were free to fall with world market prices, the food-insecure population would decrease farther to 36.1 million. If domestic prices increased because of domestic supply shocks and constrained imports, the foodinsecure population could rise to 64.7 million. The food gap (i. e., the amount of food necessary to eliminate Ethiopia's food insecurity) would reach 3.6 million tons. The practical implications of this are that measures of food security are sensitive to changes in prices. Maintaining higher prices when global prices are low maintains higher levels of food insecurity than would otherwise prevail. Expanded access to lower cost imports could significantly improve food security in Ethiopia.

Worldwide changes in eating habits are contributing to a rise in obesity and chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes and heart disease, across all countries, including middle- and low-income countries. Now that many countries share common challenges related to food choice and public health, international organizations such as the World Health Organization have recommended global campaigns to address the rise of NCDs by implementing policies to improve diets. Although these organizations have proposed pricing and income policies, the effectiveness of such policies—based on income level and regional preferences, as well as on age and gender—could differ across countries. To address this issue, this study investigates how income and prices influence dietary habits globally. No prior studies have globally evaluated the influence of price and income on major dietary risk factors for NCDs by age or gender. In this report, nationally representative dietary intake data for 164 countries were used to derive income and own-price elasticities of food consumption across the spectrum of rich and poor countries. Our results show considerable differences among individuals across food groups, regions/countries, and age and gender subgroups. Similar to past studies of cross-country food demand, results also show that low-income countries are more affected by changes in income and food prices than are higher income countries. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

We present a parsimonious demand modeling approach developed for the annual USDA-ERS International Food Security Assessment, a large-scale prospective assessment focusing on chronic food insecurity in 76 countries. The approach incorporates price effects, food quality variation across income deciles, and consistent aggregation over income deciles and food qualities. The approach is based on a simple demand approach for four food categories. It relies on data on food availability, complemented by own-price and income elasticities and food price data. Beyond consistent aggregation, the framework exhibits desirable characteristics: food quality is increasing with income; price and income responses become less sensitive with income; and increasing income inequality decreases average per capita food consumption. The proposed approach is illustrated for Tanzania. We assess future food insecurity in Tanzania using the calibrated model and evaluate the impact of safety net policies and their budgetary costs. Food-insecure population is estimated as well as the implied food gap expressed in calorie per day per food-insecure person as well as in total annual food volume in grain equivalent. The food gap measure gauges the depth of the chronic food insecurity.

Amber Waves Home All Articles About Amber Waves Share or Save This Article Statistic: Crops July 05, 2016 PRINT PDF EMAIL Production, Transportation, and Policy Factors Determine U.S. Export Competitiveness in World Corn and Soybean Markets by Birgit Meade and William D McBride You are here: Home / Amber Waves / Production, Transportation, and Policy Factors Determine U.S. Export Competitiveness in World Corn and Soybean Markets Stay Connected United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service

This report explores export competitiveness of soybeans and corn in Argentina, Brazil, and the United States by comparing farm-level production costs, the cost of internal transportation and handling, and the cost of shipping to a common export destination. In addition, prices received by farmers and average yields for each crop in each country are analyzed to calculate producer returns. Errata: This report was revised in July 2016 by correcting table 5, which now corresponds with the text. The table includes two Brazilian regions for each commodity, additional rows that show two components of the farm price, and the correct transportation costs for Brazil.

The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a trade and investment agreement under negotiation by 12 countries in the Pacific Rim, including the United States. This report assesses the potential impacts of eliminating all agricultural and nonagricultural tariffs and tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) under a TPP agreement on the region’s agriculture in 2025—the assumed end date of the pact’s implementation—compared with baseline values for 2025 without a TPP. Cutting tariffs is only one of the many goals of the TPP negotiations, but it is an important one for agricultural trade. The value of intraregional agricultural trade in 2025 under a tarifffree, TRQ-free scenario is estimated to be 6 percent, or about $8.5 billion higher (in 2007 U.S. dollars) compared with baseline values. U.S. agricultural exports to the region will be 5 percent, or about $3 billion higher, and U.S. agricultural imports from the region in 2025 will be 2 percent, or $1 billion higher in value compared with the baseline.

Cross-price elasticities are updated in this report, using the World Bank’s 2005 International Comparison Program (ICP) data for 9 major consumption categories across 144 countries. The 2005 ICP offers the most recent consistent data set for such a large number of countries. The consumption categories are: food, beverage and tobacco; clothing and footwear; gross rent, fuel, and power; house furnishings and operations; medical and health; transport and communications; recreation; education; and “other.” Cross-price elasticities also are calculated and reported for a two-good demand system based on food and nonfood items. To our knowledge, the cross-country cross-price elasticity estimates in this report represent the only available consistent elasticity estimates for this large a number of countries and consumption categories, updated from earlier estimates based on 1996 ICP data.

Drawing upon a series of cross-country demand analyses conducted using International Comparison Program (ICP) data from 1980, 1996 and 2005, this paper highlights how consumer preferences for food evolve over time. Income and price elasticities were estimated for an increasing number of countries, reaching 144 in the 2005 ICP analysis. Consumers in lower income countries spend a higher share of income on food, are most responsive to income and price changes, and are increasingly diversifying their diets toward more protein and fat containing foods such as meats and fish. Consumers, in general, also make larger adjustments to non-food expenditures when food prices change than they do to food expenditures when the price of non-food items change.

Infrastructure protection/Agriculture and food supply; Politics and government/International relations; Public health