The development of ultrasonic guided wave monitoring systems has become increasingly important as they have demonstrated the ability to detect damage in structures. An example of such a system is the Ultrasonic Broken Rail Detection system which uses pitch-catch piezoelectric transducers permanently attached to the rail to excite and receive ultrasonic guided wave signals. Changes in signals can provide a reliable indication of damage growth in the rail and ultimately reduce broken rails and derailments. However, the challenge during system development is obtaining monitoring data containing damage signatures as damaged sections of rail are immediately replaced when detected. Laboratory damage experiments are also not plausible due to end reflections from short rail sections dominating the response. Modelling and simulation thus become increasingly important to enable the simulation of unavailable damage scenarios for the upgradation of existing (or development of new reliable) guided wave-based monitoring systems. Two numerical procedures to model and simulate guided wave inspections encompassing the excitation, propagation and scattering from discontinuities in 1D waveguides are presented and applied to the inspection of the web of a welded rail. The major contribution highlighted by these procedures is the ability to simulate complex back and forth reverberating reflections. These reflections occur between various reflectors such as welds and other discontinuities such as damage. The two methods are different but complementary. The first one, which is based on a simple manual simulation of finite reverberating reflections, is useful for interpreting the results to understand how different reflections interact, especially where they overlap. The second method accounts for the scattering by all defects or discontinuities arbitrarily positioned in the waveguide. It offers a more accurate approximation of the simulated inspection since it accounts for infinite reflections. The simulation results obtained from the two modelling procedures are validated using a field experiment from a damage-free rail containing welds and holes as discontinuities. The results show that it would be possible to simulate inspections for unavailable damage scenarios. The paper is concluded with a thorough analysis of the inspection measurement using the first method.

Guided wave ultrasound has been used to continuously monitor welded rail track by transmitting guided wave ultrasound between alternate transmit and receive stations along the rail. A section of rail was encountered where transmission was not reliably achieved. It was found that there was considerable flank wear on the head of the rail, which varied in a sinusoidal pattern over approximately 10 m. The scattering due to the wear is investigated in this paper using numerical modeling. A 3D finite element (FE) model of the section of rail containing the wear defect was coupled to two semi-analytical finite element models of the incoming and outgoing waveguides. In the case of a 10 m long defect, which is over 100 wavelengths long, the 3D FE matrices were excessively large, and the global matrices could not be assembled nor solved. An approach of successively assembling layers of the mesh and reducing out internal degrees-of-freedom in the dynamic stiffness matrix was successfully adopted. The influence of the length of wear on the transmission loss was computed. It was found that short wear lengths generally cause more transmission loss although the relationship is not monotonic. It was found that the long-wear seen in the field does not cause transmission loss. In this case, where the change in cross section is gradual the incoming mode converted to a single mode in the smallest cross section and this mode converted back to the incoming mode in the second half of the wear section.

A permanently installed Ultrasonic Broken Rail Detection system monitors the Sishen-Saldanha railway line in South Africa [1]. The system detects complete rail breaks at long-range using guided wave ultrasound. For the system to be reliable, its damage detection performance must be evaluated under actual environmental and operational conditions (EOCs). However, obtaining monitoring data containing damage reflections is virtually impossible since detected defects in operational rail track sections are immediately removed and replaced with new rail. Laboratory experiments are also not possible since end reflections from short sections of rail dominate the response. Therefore, damage signals can only practically be obtained from numerical simulations. The simulated damage signals should be realistic and include varying EOCs, especially temperature variations. This paper aims to demonstrate a procedure to model temperature variations in ultrasonic signals. The temperature model and the modelling framework developed in [2] are used to simulate reflections from welds. The framework models the excitation, propagation and scattering of GWs from discontinuities by employing a hybrid model based on the 3D Finite Element method and the 2D Semi-Analytical Finite Element method. The simulated results are validated using experimental measurements collected from an operational rail at different temperatures.

The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is the transition region between the well-mixed convective troposphere and the radiatively controlled stratosphere with air masses showing chemical and dynamical properties of both regions. The representation of the TTL in meteorological reanalysis data sets is important for studying the complex interactions of circulation, convection, trace gases, clouds, and radiation. In this paper, we present the evaluation of climatological and long-term TTL temperature and tropopause characteristics in the reanalysis data sets ERA-Interim, ERA5, JRA-25, JRA-55, MERRA, MERRA-2, NCEP-NCAR (R1), and CFSR. The evaluation has been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere–troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The most recent atmospheric reanalysis data sets (ERA-Interim, ERA5, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and CFSR) all provide realistic representations of the major characteristics of the temperature structure within the TTL. There is good agreement between reanalysis estimates of tropical mean temperatures and radio occultation data, with relatively small cold biases for most data sets. Temperatures at the cold point and lapse rate tropopause levels, on the other hand, show warm biases in reanalyses when compared to observations. This tropopause-level warm bias is related to the vertical resolution of the reanalysis data, with the smallest bias found for data sets with the highest vertical resolution around the tropopause. Differences in the cold point temperature maximize over equatorial Africa, related to Kelvin wave activity and associated disturbances in TTL temperatures. Interannual variability in reanalysis temperatures is best constrained in the upper TTL, with larger differences at levels below the cold point. The reanalyses reproduce the temperature responses to major dynamical and radiative signals such as volcanic eruptions and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Long-term reanalysis trends in temperature in the upper TTL show good agreement with trends derived from adjusted radiosonde data sets indicating significant stratospheric cooling of around −0.5 to −1 K per decade. At 100 hPa and the cold point, most of the reanalyses suggest small but significant cooling trends of −0.3 to −0.6 K per decade that are statistically consistent with trends based on the adjusted radiosonde data sets. Advances of the reanalysis and observational systems over the last decades have led to a clear improvement in the TTL reanalysis products over time. Biases of the temperature profiles and differences in interannual variability clearly decreased in 2006, when densely sampled radio occultation data started being assimilated by the reanalyses. While there is an overall good agreement, different reanalyses offer different advantages in the TTL such as realistic profile and cold point temperature, continuous time series, or a realistic representation of signals of interannual variability. Their use in model simulations and in comparisons with climate model output should be tailored to their specific strengths and weaknesses.

A modelling framework for ultrasonic inspection of waveguides with arbitrary discontinuities, excited using piezoelectric transducers, is developed. The framework accounts for multi-modal, dispersive and damped one dimensional propagation over long distances. The proposed model is applied to simulate a realistic guided wave-based inspection of a welded rail. The framework models the excitation, propagation and scattering of guided waves from welds by respectively employing a hybrid model that couples a 3D FEM model of a piezoelectric transducer with a 2D SAFE model of the rail; a 2D SAFE model of the rail; and another hybrid method which couples a 3D FEM model of the arbitrary discontinuity (weld) with two SAFE models of the rail to represent the semi-infinite incoming and outgoing waveguides. Optimal damping parameters for hysteretic and viscous damping, respectively, are determined using a model updating procedure to approximate attenuation in the rail. Good agreement between the experimental measurement and simulation is demonstrated, even for weld reflections originating over 640 m from the transducer location. The proposed physics-based framework can be used to efficiently perform multiple analyses considering different numbers and locations of welds, different excitation signals or to investigate the effects of changes in parameters such as transducer geometry, or material property variations caused by temperature fluctuations. The framework could therefore be used in future to set up a digital twin of a section of rail track, or in the development of a rail monitoring system by predicting reflections from defects which cannot readily be measured, but which can be simulated.

Two recent occurrences in February 2018 and January 2019 of a dynamic split in the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex are compared in terms of their evolution and predictability. The 2018 split vortex was associated with primarily wavenumber‐2 wave forcing that was not well predicted more than 7–10 days ahead of time, and was followed by persistent coupling to the surface with strong weather impacts. In 2019 the vortex was first displaced by slow wavenumber‐1 amplification into the stratosphere, which was predictable at longer lead times and then split; the surface impacts following the event were weaker. Here we examine the role of large‐scale climate influences, such as the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Quasi‐biennial Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, on the wave forcing, surface impacts and predictability of these two events. Linkages between the forecast error in the stratospheric polar vortex winds with the forecast error in the Quasi‐biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation are examined.

An experimental monitoring system was installed on an operational heavy haul rail track. The system used two piezoelectric transducers mounted under the head of the rail to transmit and receive ultrasonic guided waves in pulse-echo mode and data were captured over a 2-week period. An artificial defect was introduced by glueing a small mass under the head of the rail at a distance of 370 m from the transducers. The size of the signal reflected by the mass varied as the glue joint deteriorated. The measurements were reordered to simulate a monotonically growing defect. The pre-processing of the captured time signals included averaging, filtering, phased array processing, dispersion compensation, signal stretching and amplitude scaling. Singular value decomposition and independent component analysis of the data were performed. Independent component analysis, with dimension reduction achieved by retaining only the larger principal components, produced the best defect detection. The defect signature was separated as an independent component, and the weight of this component increased monotonically. The results indicate that a transverse defect in the rail head could be detected and located at long range by a system comprising only two transducers. The variation of the signals due to changing environmental and operational conditions limits the size of defect that can be detected, but it is expected that even a relatively small defect, which is significantly smaller than the critical size, would be detected.

Objective Dermatomyositis (DM) has been associated with geospatial differences in ultraviolet (UV) radiation, but the role of individual determinants of UV exposure prior to diagnosis is unknown. The objective was to examine the role of those individual determinants. Methods We analyzed questionnaire data from 1,350 adults in a US national myositis registry (638 with DM, 422 with polymyositis [PM], and 290 with inclusion body myositis [IBM] diagnosed at ages 18–65 years), examining the likelihood of DM compared with PM and IBM diagnosis, in relation to self‐reported sunburn history and job‐ and hobby‐related sun exposures in the year prior to diagnosis. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) using logistic regression adjusted for age, skin tone, and sex, to determine the association of individual UV exposures with DM diagnosis. We also evaluated the proportion of DM by maximum daily ambient UV exposure, based on UVB erythemal irradiances for participant residence in the year prior to diagnosis. Results DM was associated with sunburn in the year before diagnosis (2 or more sunburns OR 1.77 [95% CI 1.28–2.43] versus PM/IBM; 1 sunburn OR 1.44 [95% CI 1.06–1.95]) and with having elevated job‐ or hobby‐related sun exposure (high exposure OR 1.64 [95% CI 1.08–2.49] or moderate exposure OR 1.35 [95% CI 1.02–1.78] versus low or no exposure). Ambient UV intensity was associated with DM in females (β = 3.97, P = 0.046), but not overall. Conclusion Our findings suggest that high or moderate personal exposure to intense sunlight is associated with developing DM compared with other types of myositis. Prospective research on UV exposure as a modifiable risk factor for DM is warranted.

Guided wave based monitoring systems require accurate knowledge of mode propagation characteristics such as wavenumber and group velocity dispersion curves. These characteristics may be computed numerically for a rail provided that the material and geometric properties of the rail are known. Generally, the rail properties are not known with sufficient accuracy and these properties also change due to temperature, rail wear and rail grinding. An automated procedure is proposed to estimate material and geometric properties of a rail by finding the properties which, when input into a Semi-Analytical Finite Element (SAFE) model, accurately reproduce measured dispersion characteristics. Pulse-echo measurements were performed and spectrograms show the reflections from aluminothermic welds of three modes of propagation. The SAFE method was used to solve the forward problem of predicting the dispersion characteristics for specified rail properties. Dispersion curves are computed for different combinations of Poisson's ratio and three geometric parameters. These dispersion curves are scaled to cover a range of longitudinal speeds of sound of the rail material. A technique is developed to determine which SAFE model provided the best fit to the experimental measurements. The technique does not require knowledge of the distances to the reflectors; rather these distances are estimated as part of the proposed procedure. A SAFE model with the estimated rail parameters produced dispersion curves and distances in very good agreement with the measured spectrograms. In addition, the estimated mean geometric parameters agreed with the measured profile of the rail head.

The climate research community uses global atmospheric reanalysis data sets to understand a wide range of processes and variability in the atmosphere; they are a particularly powerful tool for studying phenomena that cannot be directly observed. Different reanalyses may give very different results for the same diagnostics. The Stratosphere troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) is a coordinated activity to compare key diagnostics that are important for stratospheric processes and their tropospheric connections among available reanalyses. S-RIP has been identifying differences among reanalyses and their underlying causes, providing guidance on appropriate usage of reanalysis products in scientific studies (particularly those of relevance to SPARC), and contributing to future improvements in the reanalysis products by establishing collaborative links between reanalysis centres and data users. S-RIP emphasizes diagnostics of the upper troposphere, stratosphere, and lower mesosphere. The draft S-RIP final report is expected to be completed in 2018. This poster gives a summary of the S-RIP project and presents highlights including results on the Brewer-Dobson circulation, stratosphere/troposphere dynamical coupling, the extra-tropical upper troposphere / lower stratosphere, the tropical tropopause layer, the quasi-biennial oscillation, lower stratospheric polar processing, and the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere.

Objective Ultraviolet (UV) radiation is considered to be an important environmental factor in the clinical course of children with juvenile dermatomyositis (DM). We aimed to evaluate the association between UV radiation and severe disease outcomes in juvenile DM. Methods This is a cross-sectional study of patients with juvenile DM enrolled in the US multicenter Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Legacy Registry from 2010 to 2015. The mean UV index (UVI) in the calendar month prior to symptom onset in each subject's zip code was calculated from daily satellite solar noon measurements. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model the relationship between the mean UVI and calcinosis as well as other outcomes of severe disease. Covariates included sex, race, age, time to diagnosis, disease duration, and latitude. Results In a multivariable model, there was no association between the mean UVI and calcinosis. African American race was associated with a 3-fold greater odds of calcinosis. However, there was a significant statistical interaction between race and mean UVI. Accounting for this interaction, the odds of calcinosis markedly decreased in African American subjects and steadily increased in non-African American subjects over a range of increasing the mean UVI. Higher mean UVI was associated with decreased odds of using biologics or nonmethotrexate disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and skin ulceration. Conclusion We described a novel association between UV radiation, calcinosis, and race in a large cohort of patients with juvenile DM. This study furthers our knowledge of the role of UV radiation in the clinical course of juvenile DM and highlights the complex interplay between genes and environment in the clinical phenotypes and development of calcinosis in children with juvenile DM.

Paper presented at the 11th South African Conference on Computational and Applied Mechanics (SACAM 2018), Vanderbijlpark, South Africa, 17-19 September 2018

Accurate computation of dispersion characteristics of guided waves in rails is important during the development of inspection and monitoring systems. Wavenumber versus frequency curves computed by the semi-analytical finite element method exhibit mode repulsion and mode crossing which can be difficult to distinguish. Eigenvalue derivatives, with respect to the wavenumber, are used to investigate these regions. A term causing repulsion between two modes is identified and a condition for two modes to cross is established. In symmetric rail profiles the mode shapes are either symmetric or antisymmetric. Symmetric and antisymmetric modes can cross each other while the modes within the symmetric and antisymmetric families do not appear to cross. The modes can therefore be numbered in the same way that Lamb waves in plates are numbered, making it easier to communicate results. The derivative of the eigenvectors with respect to wavenumber contains the same repulsion term and shows how the mode shapes swop during a repulsion. The introduction of even a small asymmetry appears to lead to repulsion forces that prevent any mode crossings. Measurements on a continuously welded rail track were performed to illustrate a mode repulsion.