This paper summarises the main findings of a survey of career professionals in the UK working in independent/private practice and of members of the National Association of Educational Guidance for Adults (NAEGA). These two groups represent the majority of career professionals working with adults and include both those working mainly in the private sector and those working in the public, education and voluntary sectors. The survey highlights similarities and differences in the background and working practices of these two groups but also shows the diversity in terms of experience and backgrounds of career professionals working in this sector. As the provision of career support for adults becomes more significant, implications for the career profession are discussed.

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This paper summarises the main findings from a research study to review the career support provided to people in employment. The research was commissioned by CEDEFOP and carried out by a team from the National Institute for Careers Education and Counselling (NICEC).

The authors study abrupt transitions with gradual increase in sea surface temperature in an idealized tropical atmosphere. The approach the authors take is the singlecolumn modeling that incorporates the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation. Their numerical experiment with different SST show that abrupt transition can arise from the interplay between local deep convection and the large-scale adjustments parameterized via WTG. The authors further suggested the abrupt transition is related to evaporative cooling.

We document a feature of the tropical atmosphere that could be relevant to episodes of abrupt transitions in global climate that regularly occurred during the last ice age. Using a single-column model (SCM) incorporating the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation, we find that abrupt transitions occur as the sea surface temperature is steadily increased. Because these transitions arise from the interplay between local deep convection and the largescale adjustments that are required to maintain weak temperature and pressure gradients, they are only present with the WTG approximation relevant for the tropics but may be of interest as a trigger for abrupt transitions in global climate. These transitions are marked by an abrupt change in the partitioning of rainfall between convective and large-scale (microphysics) subroutines in addition to various other features of the column, including cloudiness, vertical velocity, temperature, and humidity. We conclude that the transitions are initiated by a failure of evaporative cooling in the lower free troposphere. This leads to lower-column heating and a burst of convection that heats the upper free troposphere, increasing the large-scale rainfall rate, which allows for sufficient evaporative cooling to restabilize the column.

Abstract. Climate data is highly correlated through the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. Model evaluation often involves averages of various quantities over different regions and seasons making it difficult from a statistical perspective to quantify the significance of differences that arise between a model and observations. Here we present a strategy that makes use of a set of perfect modeling experiments to quantify the effects of these correlations on model evaluation metrics. This information is incorporated into Bayesian inference through a precision parameter with informative priors. These concepts are illustrated through an example of fitting a line through data that includes either uncorrelated or correlated noise as well as to the calibration of CAM3.1. The concept of a precision parameter may be applied as a strategy to weight different climate model evaluation metrics within a multivariate normal framework. From the example with CAM3.1, the precision parameter plays a central role in rescaling the estimated parametric uncertainties to better accommodate modeling structural errors.

The topic of the paper is model calibration and the new thing it seems to introduce is the scaling factor S. While this is of general interest for GMD readers, the paper should not be published in its present form. I have several reasons for this: 1) It is not clear to me what is new in this manuscript relative to the older one by the same authors (Jackson et al, 2008) where the scale factor is already introduced.

Sophie Nowicki, Robert A. Bindschadler, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Ed Bueler, Hyeungu Choi, Jim Fastook, Glen Granzow, Ralf Greve, Gail Gutowski, Ute Herzfeld, Charles Jackson, Jesse Johnson, Constantine Khroulev, Eric Larour, Anders Levermann, William H. Lipscomb, Maria A. Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Byron R. Parizek, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Diandong Ren, Eric Rignot, Fuyuki Saito, Tatsuru Sato, Hakime Seddik, Helene Seroussi, Kunio Takahashi, Ryan Walker, and Wei Li Wang

The Sea‐level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort explores the sensitivity of the current generation of ice sheet models to external forcing to gain insight into the potential future contribution to sea level from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. All participating models simulated the ice sheet response to three types of external forcings: a change in oceanic condition, a warmer atmospheric environment, and enhanced basal lubrication. Here an analysis of the spatial response of the Greenland ice sheet is presented, and the impact of model physics and spin‐up on the projections is explored. Although the modeled responses are not always homogeneous, consistent spatial trends emerge from the ensemble analysis, indicating distinct vulnerabilities of the Greenland ice sheet. There are clear response patterns associated with each forcing, and a similar mass loss at the full ice sheet scale will result in different mass losses at the regional scale, as well as distinct thickness changes over the ice sheet. All forcings lead to an increased mass loss for the coming centuries, with increased basal lubrication and warmer ocean conditions affecting mainly outlet glaciers, while the impacts of atmospheric forcings affect the whole ice sheet.

Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate: i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and iii) mass loss with enhanced ice-shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceed the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of subshelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three. For more information on the paper, please contact Sophie Nowicki: sophie.nowicki@nasa.gov

Research Objectives: To further advance the hypothesis that changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are among the most critical factors determining abrupt African Monsoon changes in response to future global warming, to quantify various uncertain environmental factors that may work individually or in concert to trigger these abrupt transitions, so that we can have a better understanding of the uncertainties in the model projection.