Tornado motion changes occurring with major internal rear-flank momentum surges are examined in three significant tornado-producing supercells. The analysis primarily uses fixed-site Doppler radar data, but also utilizes in situ and videographic observations when available. In the cases examined, the peak lowest-level remotely sensed or in situ rear-flank surge wind speeds ranged from 48 to at least 63 m s(-1). Contemporaneous with major surges impacting the tornadoes and their parent low-level mesocyclones, longer-duration tornado heading changes were leftward and ranged from 30 degrees to 55 degrees. In all cases, the tornado speed increased substantially upon surge impact, with tornado speeds approximately doubling in two of the events. A storm-relative change in the hook echo orientation accompanied the major surges and provided a signal that a marked leftward heading change for an ongoing tornado was under way. Concurrent with the surge interaction, the hook echo tip and associated low-level mesocyclone turned leftward while also moving in a storm-relative downshear direction. The major rear-flank internal surges influenced tornado motion such that a generally favorable storm updraft-relative position was maintained. In all cases, the tornado lasted well beyond (>= 21 min) the time of the surge-associated left turn with no evident marked loss of intensity until well down-track of the turn. The local momentum balance between outflow and inflow that bounds the tornado or its parent circulation, especially the directionality evolution of the bounding momentum, is the most apparent explanation for tornado down-track or off-track accelerations in the featured events.

Results from a large eddy simulation of a tornadic supercell developing in a horizontally homogeneous environment are presented which clearly illustrate a connection between low-level mesoyclone development and the development of a streamwise vorticity current (SVC). Although the environment supports tornadic supercells, a strong low-level mesocyclone (LLM) does not develop until a well-defined SVC forms in the storm's forward flank. As the streamwise vorticity in the SVC flows southward and is tilted into the storm updraft creating updraft helicity, the LLM strengthens and lowers toward the surface. The SVC also focuses LLM development in a confined storm-relative position favorable for converging/stretching preexisting vertical vorticity. Tornadogenesis occurs within similar to 5 min of the establishment of a strong LLM. These results illustrate a possible mode of internal storm variability that may be an important factor in explaining why some supercells produce tornadoes while others do not in similar favorable environments.

During the first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP), new meteorological observations were collected from a large suite of instruments, including wind velocities measured on networks of tall towers provided by wind industry partners, wind speeds measured by cup anemometers mounted on the nacelles of wind turbines, and wind profiles by networks of Doppler sodars and radar wind profilers. Previous data denial studies found a significant improvement of up to 6% root mean squared error (RMSE) reduction for short-term wind power forecasts due to the assimilation of all of these observations into the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Rapid Refresh (RAP) forecast model using a 3D variational data assimilation scheme. As a follow-on study, we now investigate the impacts of assimilating into the RAP model either the additional remote sensing observations (sodars and radar wind profilers) alone or assimilating the industry-provided in situ observations (tall towers and nacelle anemometers) alone, in addition to routinely available standard meteorological data sets. The more numerous tall tower/nacelle observations provide a relatively large improvement through the first 3 to 4 hours of the forecasts, which diminishes to a negligible impact by forecast hour 6. In comparison, the sparser vertical profiling sodars/radars provide an initially smaller impact that decays at a much slower rate, with a positive impact present through the first 12 hours of the forecast. Large positive assimilation impacts for both sets of instruments are found during daytime hours, while small or even negative impacts are found during nighttime hours.

The first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) was a DOE and NOAA-funded 2-year-long observational, data assimilation, and modeling study with a 1-year-long field campaign aimed at demonstrating improvements in the accuracy of wind forecasts generated by the assimilation of additional observations for wind energy applications. In this paper, we present the results of applying a Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M), developed during WFIP, to measure the skill of the 13-km grid spacing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) Rapid Refresh (RAP) model at forecasting wind ramp events. To measure the impact on model skill generated by the additional observations, controlled data-denial RAP simulations were run for six separate 7 to 12-day periods (for a total of 55 days) over different seasons. The RT&M identifies ramp events in the time series of observed and forecast power, matches in time each forecast ramp event with the most appropriate observed ramp event, and computes the skill score of the forecast model penalizing both timing and amplitude errors. Because no unique definition of a ramp event exists (in terms of a single threshold of change in power over a single time duration), the RT&M computes integrated skill over a range of power change (Delta p) and time period (Delta t) values. A statistically significant improvement of the ramp event forecast skill is found through the assimilation of the special WFIP data in two different study areas, and variations in model skill between up-ramp versus down-ramp events are found.

Utilizing state-of-the-art visualization and analysis software, we explore the evolution of a violent tornado within a simulated supercell thunderstorm and describe associated computational challenges.

The rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

One challenge with wind-power forecasts is the accurate prediction of rapid changes in wind speed (ramps). To evaluate the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's ability to predict such events, model simulations, conducted over an area of complex terrain in May 2011, are used. The sensitivity of the model's performance to the choice among three planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes [Mellor-Yamada-Janji (MYJ), University of Washington (UW), and Yonsei University (YSU)] is investigated. The simulated near-hub-height winds (62 m), vertical wind speed profiles, and ramps are evaluated against measurements obtained from tower-mounted anemometers, a Doppler sodar, and a radar wind profiler deployed during the Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study (CBWES). The predicted winds at near-hub height have nonnegligible biases in monthly mean under stable conditions. Under stable conditions, the simulation with the UW scheme better predicts upward ramps and the MYJ scheme is the most successful in simulating downward ramps. Under unstable conditions, simulations using the YSU and UW schemes show good performance in predicting upward ramps and downward ramps, with the YSU scheme being slightly better at predicting ramps with durations longer than 1 h. The largest differences in mean wind speed profiles among simulations using the three PBL schemes occur during upward ramps under stable conditions, which were frequently associated with low-level jets. The UW scheme has the best overall performance in ramp prediction over the CBWES site when evaluated using prediction accuracy and capture-rate statistics, but no single PBL parameterization is clearly superior to the others when all atmospheric conditions are considered.

In this study, aerial imagery of tornado damage is used to digitize the falling direction of trees (i.e., tree fall) along the 22 May 2011 Joplin, Missouri, and 27 April 2011 Tuscaloosa-Birmingham, Alabama, tornado tracks. Normalized mean patterns of observed tree fall from each tornado's peak-intensity period are subjectively compared with results from analytical vortex simulations of idealized tornado-induced tree fall to characterize mean properties of the near-surface flow as depicted by the model. A computationally efficient method of simulating tree fall is applied that uses a Gumbel distribution of critical tree-falling wind speeds on the basis of the enhanced Fujita scale. Results from these simulations suggest that both tornadoes had strong radial near-surface winds. A few distinct tree-fall patterns are identified at various locations along the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado track. Concentrated bands of intense tree fall, collocated with and aligned parallel to the axis of underlying valley channels, extend well beyond the primary damage path. These damage patterns are hypothesized to be the result of flow acceleration caused by channeling within valleys. Another distinct pattern of tree fall, likely not linked to the underlying topography, may have been associated with a rear-flank downdraft (RFD) internal surge during the tornado's intensification stage. Here, the wind field was strong enough to produce tornado-strength damage well beyond the visible funnel cloud. This made it difficult to distinguish between tornado-and RFD-related damage and thus illustrates an ambiguity in ascertaining tornado-damage-path width in some locations.

Laura Bianco got a M.S. in Physics, from the University of L’Aquila, Italy, in 1998. She got a Ph. D., from the University of L’Aquila, Italy, in 2002. From 2002 till 2006 she was a young scientist at CETEMPS (Center of Excellence for integration of remote sensing techniques and numerical modeling for the forecast of severe weather), in Italy. From 2006 to present she has had the position of Research Associate at CIRES University of Colorado/NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Science Division. Dr. Bianco is a researcher in the field of remote sensing of the atmospheric boundary layer. She is now involved in the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) which is a DOE sponsored research project that aims to improve the skill of NOAA's short-term weather forecast models at predicting foundational weather parameters (for example, wind speed, ramp events, and icing conditions) that impact wind energy generation.

Mobile mesonet sampling in the hook echo/rear-flank downdraft (RFD) region of a tornadic supercell near Bowdle, South Dakota, provided the opportunity to examine RFD thermodynamic and kinematic attributes and evolution. Focused analysis of the fifth low-level mesocyclone cycle that produced two significant tornadoes including a violent tornado, revealed four RFD internal surge (RFDIS) events. RFDISs appeared to influence tornado development, intensity, and demise by altering the thermodynamic and kinematic character of the RFD region bounding the pretornadic and tornadic circulations. Significant tornadoes developed and matured when the RFD, modulated by internal surges, was kinematically strong, only weakly negatively buoyant, and very potentially buoyant. In contrast, the demise of the Bowdle tornado was concurrent with a much cooler RFDIS that replaced more buoyant and far more potentially buoyant RFD air near the tornado. This surge also likely contributed to a displacement of the tornado from the storm updraft. Development of the first tornado and rapid intensification of the Bowdle tornado occurred when an RFDIS boundary convergence zone interacted with the pretornadic and tornadic circulations, respectively. In the latter case, a strong vertical vortex sheet along an RFDIS boundary appeared to be a near-surface cyclonic vorticity source for the tornado. A downdraft closely bounding the right flank of the developing first tornado and intensifying Bowdle tornado provided some of the inflow to these circulations. For the Bowdle tornado, parcels were also streaming toward the tornado from its immediate east and northeast. A cyclonic anticyclonic vortex couplet was observed during a portion of each significant tornado cycle.

The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

Since the spring of 2002, tornadoes were sampled on nine occasions using Hardened In-Situ Tornado Pressure Recorder probes, video probes, and mobile mesonet instrumentation. This study describes pressure and, in some cases, velocity data obtained from these intercepts. In seven of these events, the intercepted tornadoes were within the radar-indicated or visually identified location of the supercell low-level mesocyclone. In the remaining two cases, the intercepted tornadoes occurred outside of this region and were located along either the rear-flank downdraft gust front or an internal rear-flank downdraft surge boundary.The pressure traces, sometimes augmented with videography, suggest that vortex structures ranged from single-cell to two-cell, quite similar to the swirl-ratio-dependent continuum of vortex structures shown in laboratory and numerical simulations. Although near-ground tornado observations are quite rare, the number of contemporary tornado measurements now available permits a comparative range of observed pressure deficits for a wide variety of tornado sizes and intensities to be presented.

TWISTEX 2010 (Tactical Weather Instrumented Sampling in/near Tornadoes Experiment) was a field experiment designed to collect near-surface data in and near tornadoes. One of the project objectives was to document the kinematic and thermodynamic environment in the vicinity of the rear-flank downdraft (RFD) and rear-flank downdraft gust front (RFDGF), and to try to determine the RFD/RFDGF’s contribution to tornadogenesis and tornado maintenance.

Data collected by a mesonet within the near-tornado environment and in the Tipton tornado on 29 May 2008 provided a rare opportunity to analyze rear-flank downdraft (RFD) outflow properties closely bounding a tornado and to characterize parcel thermodynamics being ingested into a tornado from the rear-flank downdraft. Parcels moving into the tornado on its right flank had very small negative buoyancy and considerable potential buoyancy. Measurements within and very near the tornado showed similar buoyancy characteristics to the storm inflow. Analyzed surface divergence and videographic evidence indicated that the RFD outflow just to the right and wrapping in front of the tornado was supported by parcels moving out of a narrow downdraft bordering the right flank of the tornado. Surface flow field analysis showed that parcels moved out of the downdraft-associated divergence region and into the right side of, as well as in front of, the tornado. An internal RFD surge boundary was positioned roughly 0.5 km in front of the eastern edge of the analyzed divergence region and implied downdraft.The broader RFD outflow thermodynamic characteristics were consistent with recent research with only small negative buoyancy and substantial potential buoyancy; however, convective inhibition was considerably higher than typically found in other tornadic cases. This latter characteristic was emblematic of the broader storm environment on this day. Parcels making up the RFD outflow originated from low-levels, consistent with recent findings for tornadic rear-flank downdrafts and in contrast to past historical indications for the rear-flank downdraft source region.

The primary objective of the Tactical Weather Instrumented Sampling in/near Tornadoes Experiment (TWISTEX) in 2008 was to collect thermodynamic and kinematic datasets near tornadic circulations using in situ and mobile mesonet instrumentation. With these datasets, improved understanding of low-level tornadic features as well as tornadogenesis and longevity can be achieved. In May 2008, the TWISTEX field campaign collected four datasets both in and near tornadic circulations. Three of these intercepts were unintentionally sampled, as these circulations were displaced from visual location of the intense, low-level mesocyclone. The remaining intercept was conducted as planned on a mature tornado. This study presents background on the instrumentation as well as preliminary results from the data obtained. In addition, comparisons are made to pressure and wind velocity information acquired from laboratory and numerically simulated vortices.