The U.S. aims to produce approximately 133 billion liters of sustainable aviation fuel annually by 2050 to address greenhouse gas emissions from the aviation sector and reduce reliance on petroleum-derived fuels. Meeting this target requires significant scaling of feedstock production and supply chain infrastructure. This research evaluates the national viability of winter oilseeds - pennycress, camelina, and carinata - as feedstocks as time progresses and at different demand levels. Leveraging crop production forecasts and a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model, this analysis determined strategic locations for processing facilities and biorefineries to minimize costs. Findings reveal that if all oilseed-producing counties participate, these crops could generate 4.24 billion liters of SAF by 2048 - only 3% of the 2050 target - at a cost of $0.68/liter of bio-oil at the biorefinery gate. Including meal credit in the model can reduce overall costs by up to 70%. Additional scenarios were examined for specific SAF demand levels: 1.32, 2.65, and 3.97 billion liters annually, representing 1%, 2%, and 3% of the 2050 target, respectively. Results estimated bio-oil unit costs ranging from $0.48-$0.64 per liter (cost excludes bio-oil to SAF conversion cost and co-product credits from this conversion). The analysis is limited by fixed processing capacities, reliance on truck-based deliveries of winter oilseeds, and the exclusion of downstream logistics beyond the biorefinery gate. Despite these constraints, this study contributes to SAF research by providing a scalable optimization framework and highlighting the critical need for enhanced infrastructure and diversified feedstocks to achieve U.S. SAF production targets efficiently.

Gigatonne-scale atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR), alongside deep emission cuts, is critical to stabilizing the climate. However, some of the most scalable CDR technologies are also the most land intensive. Here, we examine whether adequate land resources exist in the contiguous United States to meet CDR targets when prioritizing grid emissions reduction, food production, and the protection of sensitive ecosystems. We focus on biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) and direct air capture and storage (DACS) and show that suitable lands exceed the expected needs: 37.6 million hectares of land are available for BiCRS, resulting in 0.26 GtCO2 of CDR/year, and 34 million hectares are suitable for wind-and solar-powered DACS, resulting in 4.8 GtCO2 of CDR/year if facilities are co-located with geologic CO2 storage. We identify biomass and energy supply hotspots to meet CDR targets while ensuring land protection and minimizing land competition.

As the United States charts a course towards net-zero targets, the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) will release the latest biomass assessment, the Billion-ton 2023 (BT23) report. These reports provide an advancement in the understanding of quantity, spatial distribution, and economic accessibility of biomass resources in the U.S. Building on this work, we present the potential for biomass resources to contribute to biochar production that can be used for agricultural soil amendments, as well as biomass used for energy and bioproducts. Through modeling using a partial-equilibrium linear programming model, we evaluate biomass resources on agricultural land. With producer responses to biochar market incentives and sustainability considerations, residues from these biomass resources can be leveraged for biochar boosting the sustainability of the energy crop system. This research also introduces the potential for biochar from Wildfire Crisis Strategy (WCS) generated biomass, an unprecedented effort by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) to make wildfire-prone forests more resilient. We estimate biomass availability resulting from thinning and fuel reduction treatments on western landscapes and present this research as a potential case study for sourcing biochar material as a soil amendment. Beyond energy generation, the focus of this work is on co-production of bioproducts and creating a pathway for payments that contribute to more sustainable agricultural systems. This dual-use strategy not only fortifies the development of renewable energy systems but also accentuates the importance of resilience by incorporating biochar to enhance soil health and carbon sequestration.

This study aimed to develop a food systems knowledge and attitudes survey for college students. Sixty-eight initial items were generated. Items were removed after content and face validity, item analysis, and exploratory factor analysis. During confirmatory factor analysis, a 22-item, 2-factor structure was the best fit for the data (comparative fit index = .847 and rootmean-square error of approximation = .010). Both knowledge and attitude scales were reliable (alpha = .77 and .85, respectively), and there were associations between scales and validation criteria (P < .05). Nutrition researchers and educators may use this survey in the college setting.

Prevented planting payments reimburse crop producers for losses from not being able to plant. These payments provide critical protection to producers; however, these payments, which are determined using a nationwide, crop-specific coverage factor, have been questioned to induce moral hazard. Depending on the region and crop insurance coverage, payments from this provision exceed producers’ losses. This paper estimates the prevented planting coverage factor by coverage level and region that would equitably reimburse corn and soybean producers for their losses. We find the prevented planting coverage factor has significant variation across coverage levels and location within our study region. The prevented planting coverage factor was found to decline as the policy coverage level increases. The further north in the study region the higher the coverage factor, likely due to increased land rent expenses. The results provide a unique perspective of how these coverage factors would vary to equitably compensate producers for losses, which addresses the moral hazard concerns with prevented planting.

on a county level for the entire USA (including AK and HI where possible), considering all removal methods that are currently well-enough developed for us to estimate the likely costs in 2050. We anticipate that more than 1 Gt CO2e of removal will be available to the Nation. We will identify how much of each CO2 removal approach is available in specific regions of the Nation and provide cumulative costs and volumes (a supply curve) by region for 2050. We expect to complete this detailed analysis by late 2023.

Feedstock cost and cost variability is expected to increase with the number of biorefineries. To quantify this effect, this spatial-economic analysis simulates feedstock cost and cost variability of an industry based on corn stover as a function of the number of biorefineries. Results are reported for nine scenarios (a base case and sensitivity analysis of four variables - harvest efficiency, sustainability constraints, opportunity cost, and corn grain yield) under deterministic and stochastic simulations, assuming biorefineries using 658 000 Mg (725 000 tons) year(-1) of corn stover in 2019. The resulting supply curves are highly elastic (i.e. little change in cost) for the first 50 of the 121 biorefineries, with price increases in subsequent biorefineries depending on scenario. In the base-case deterministic scenario, weighted-average stover costs are $66 Mg-1 ($60 ton(-1)), $69 Mg-1 ($62 ton(-1)), and $156 Mg-1 ($142 ton(-1)), at the first, 60th, and 121st biorefineries, respectively. The stochastic simulations, subject to observed 30-year corn yield variability, follow a similar pattern, with price distributions that vary by scenario. The base-case stochastic simulations illustrate minimal cost variability for the first 60 biorefineries, but rapid increases in cost variability in the second half of potential biorefineries, with similar patterns observed in the other scenarios. Of the four variables explored, price was most sensitive to harvest efficiency, followed by sustainability constraints, corn yield, and opportunity cost. Results suggest that, under conventional logistics, about half of the US corn stover resource is reliably available with minimum cost increase and variability. (c) 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

This study estimates breakeven price distributions for irrigated and non-irrigated corn, cotton, and soybean production in Tennessee under conventional tillage and no-till for three field sizes and two sources of energy for irrigation. The distributions were compared using forecasted prices of corn, cotton, and soybean realized under different climate scenarios. The price simulation focuses on the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of drought-induced yield reduction on commodity market prices. Electric pump irrigation systems in the southeastern United States have lower energy costs and, thus, a lower breakeven price than diesel-fueled irrigation pumps. A corn producer could obtain a lower breakeven price per kg by irrigating fields of 51–81 hectares. Cotton and soybean producers managing fields of 81 hectares or less could realize lower breakeven prices by not irrigating. Under extended drought conditions during which the market price for corn, soybeans, and cotton are higher, irrigated corn is more likely to be profitable compared to irrigated cotton or soybeans. These results could inform the development of irrigation management plans for row crop producers in the southeastern United States.

Global climate change will affect crop productivity, technology adoption, and commodity food and fiber prices. This research investigates the ex-ante effects of climate change on cropping mix and irrigation decisions at a watershed scale by integrating a downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections, a crop growth model, and an economic model of the row crop sector typical of corn, soybean, wheat, and sorghum operations in Tennessee, United States. The downscaled GCM is used to generate weather patterns for Tennessee’s watersheds to 2049, under moderate and high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission assumptions. Crop yields and commodity prices were also estimated under these prevailing climate scenarios. Compared with the moderate emission level scenario, greater GHG emissions decrease dryland crop productivity and cause commodity prices to trend upward. A row crop optimization model was developed under the assumption that producers are profit maximizers who base their cropping decisions on the previous yield performance of a cropping system, commodity prices, and production functions, subject to resource constrains. Results suggest that producers in some watersheds adopt irrigation to minimize variability in net returns if water is available. Dryland and irrigated soybeans, dryland corn, and dryland soybean-wheat double cropping could become the dominant cropping systems in watersheds located in western Tennessee while irrigated and dryland soybeans could become the dominant row crop in watersheds located in middle Tennessee.

This analysis explores the valuation of feedstock quality attributes of switchgrass and miscanthus – two energy crops poised for future expansion – and compares the relative economic availability of these two crops under two scenarios: (i) uniform price assumptions (i.e., no incentive for quality), and (ii) a scenario of a price premium based on convertibility (i.e., an incentive for quality). Given data on cellulose content, hemicellulose content, and their relative convertibility, miscanthus is expected to be 11% more efficient at conversion to biofuels than switchgrass under the biochemical conversion route. Based on this scenario of improved conversion efficiency and associated profit, we simulate an 11% price premium for miscanthus over other feedstocks in a base‐case scenario. By adding this price premium, supplies of miscanthus increase over the base case by about 4 million (44%), 94 million (64%), and 166 million (94%) tons in year 0, 10, and 20 after simulated contracts for production are initiated respectively. These results emphasize that custom simulations are needed to quantify feedstock availability if supplies are intended to reflect grower response to industry demands for feedstock quality specifications. Farmers can grow ‘peas or carrots’, and price signals from biorefineries will influence what energy crops they produce. Recognizing that the energy crop mix is tractable according to quality characteristics is relevant both for near‐term and long‐term biofuels research and development. We recommend accounting for market preferences for quality attributes when estimating potential future supplies of energy crops. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

We analyze optimal budget allocations to acquire protected areas for carbon storage while balancing risk and return from protection under economic growth uncertainty in a local community. Our study is the first to explore how risk of uncertain economic growth affects cost of protected area acquisition using real estate values at the parcel level, enabling us to estimate the site-specific opportunity cost of carbon storage. The Pareto optimal trade-off frontier between the expected carbon storage benefit and its variance provides a continuum of risk-return combinations. The pattern of the trade-off relationship implies that risk mitigation is less costly in terms of foregone expected benefit when risk is higher than when it is lower. Our results also find that the difference in cluster-specific budget allocations between the strong economic growth scenario and the weak economic growth scenario subsequently decreases between the point of expected benefit maximization and the point of variance minimization. Our findings of optimal hectares of land for protected area acquisition for carbon storage and corresponding benefits and costs serve as an empirically informed knowledge base to help a local community prioritize acquisition of potential protected areas for carbon storage under economic growth uncertainty.

Feedstock price and availability remain a barrier to adoption of cellulosic biofuels. Eucalyptus spp., can produce an energy-dense terpene suitable for high-density synthetic hydrocarbon-type fuel (grade JP-10) production in addition to cellulosic-based feedstock for traditional jet fuels (e.g., grade Jet A) and gasoline. This study modeled economic potential for Eucalyptus to fulfill US fuel markets. Cold-tolerant Eucalyptus was simulated in an annual coppice system for maximized leaf production. Results of the lowest simulated price ($110 t(-1)) show that within 10 years, there is potential to produce 204 million L yr(-1) of fuel, including 51 million L yr(-1) of JP-10-type fuel, 75 million L yr(-1) of Jet A type fuel, and 77 million L yr(-1) of gasoline. These quantities of fuel could be valued at approximately $500 million (USD), with feedstock costs totaling approximately $100 million (USD). Longer-term markets (to 20 years) or higher priced (to $220 t(-1)) scenarios show potential for more production. Research to determine potential for genetic improvement, delivered fuel costs, and biorefinery siting near existing infrastructure is recommended.

Hemp has the potential to support a decent living for small farmers in the US, but it depends on what will happen in the coming years after hemp is fully legalized. Hemp is no different than any other crop; if fully legalized, industry would quickly employ methods commonly used on other crops. The industrial system stands at the ready with machines, inputs, universities, transportation systems, markets, and capital, to plant hemp on large acreages, process it, market it, and bring it to consumers. If unleashed, the vast majority of the crop will be grown on large acreages under industrial management, mechanized, and with few people on the land. Organic hemp will be another option offered by the industrial model, but equally as mechanized. Any profit advantage of hemp to farmers would, within 5 to 10 years, diminish to roughly equal the market returns of other industrial crops like corn or beans.

First paragraph: The legalization of hemp provides a new oppor­tunity for small farmers in the U.S., and com­ing on the heels of trade wars and depressed crop returns, the timing couldn’t be better. However, while hemp production could support a decent living for these small farmers, production opportu­nities such as this will draw interest from producers of all sizes, which may determine its profitability. Hemp, just like any other crop, can be produced on a massive scale. The industrial system stands at the ready with machines, inputs, land-grant agricul­tural research universities, transportation systems, markets, and capital to plant hemp on large acre­ages and then process, market, and deliver it to consumers. Once unleashed, the vast majority of the crop could be grown on large acreages under industrial management, mechanized, and with few people on the land. Organic hemp could be an­other option offered by the industrial model, but could be equally mechanized. Within five to 10 years, any current profit advantage of hemp to farmers could diminish to the low level of market returns offered by other industrial crops like corn or beans. . . .