This paper summarizes the results of an update to a resource assessment, published in 2005, commonly referred to as the Billion-Ton Study (BTS). The updated results are consistent with the 2005 BTS in terms of overall magnitude. The 2005 BTS projected between 860 and 1240 Tg of biomass available in the 2050 timeframe, while the Billion-Ton Update (BT2), for a price of 66 $ Mg-1, projected between 994 and 1483 Tg in 2030. For the BT2, forest residue biomass potential was determined to be less owing to tighter restrictions on forest residue supply including restrictions due to limited projected increase in traditional harvest for pulpwood and sawlogs. Crop residue potential was also determined to be less because of the consideration of soil carbon and not allowing residue removal from conventionally tilled corn acres. Energy crop potential was estimated to be much greater largely because of land availability and modeling of competition among various competing uses of the land. Generally, the scenario assumptions in the updated assessment are much more plausible to show a "billionton" resource, which would be sufficient to displace 30% or more of the country's present petroleum consumption and provide more than enough biomass to meet the 2022 requirements of the Renewable Fuel Standard. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The economic availability of biomass resources is a critical component in evaluating the commercial viability of biofuels. To evaluate projected farmgate prices and grower payments needed to procure 295 million dry Mg (325 million dry tons) of biomass in the U.S. by 2022, this research employs POLYSYS, an economic model of the U.S. agriculture sector. A price-run simulation suggests that a farmgate price of $58.42Mg−1 ($53.00dryton−1) is needed to procure this supply, while a demand-run simulation suggests that prices of $34.56 and $71.61Mg−1 ($30.00 and $62.00dryton−1) in are needed in 2012 and 2022, respectively, to procure the same supply, under baseline yield assumptions. Grower payments are reported as farmgate price minus resource-specific harvest costs.

An in-depth summary is presented on the state of technology of woody resources available for bioenergy. Resources discussed include several types of short-rotation woody crops, also called short-rotation forestry, and a variety of forestland-derived resources. Species most widely planted and researched for short-rotation applications include willow, poplar, eucalyptus, and pine. Production strategies include both coppice and single-stem management approaches and a wide range of planting densities. Data are presented on observed yields and feedstock supply analysis. Forestland-derived resources include logging residues and thinnings as well as industrial wood residues and urban wood wastes. Topics discussed for all resource types include harvesting/collection techniques, economics, and sustainability.

The report, Biomass as Feedstock for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry: The Technical Feasibility of a Billion-Ton Annual Supply (generally referred to as the Billion-Ton Study or 2005 BTS), was an estimate of 'potential' biomass based on numerous assumptions about current and future inventory, production capacity, availability, and technology. The analysis was made to determine if conterminous U.S. agriculture and forestry resources had the capability to produce at least one billion dry tons of sustainable biomass annually to displace 30% or more of the nation's present petroleum consumption. An effort was made to use conservative estimates to assure confidence in having sufficient supply to reach the goal. The potential biomass was projected to be reasonably available around mid-century when large-scale biorefineries are likely to exist. The study emphasized primary sources of forest- and agriculture-derived biomass, such as logging residues, fuel treatment thinnings, crop residues, and perennially grown grasses and trees. These primary sources have the greatest potential to supply large, reliable, and sustainable quantities of biomass. While the primary sources were emphasized, estimates of secondary residue and tertiary waste resources of biomass were also provided. The original Billion-Ton Resource Assessment, published in 2005, was divided into two parts-forest-derived resources and agriculture-derived resources. The forest resources included residues produced during the harvesting of merchantable timber, forest residues, and small-diameter trees that could become available through initiatives to reduce fire hazards and improve forest health; forest residues from land conversion; fuelwood extracted from forests; residues generated at primary forest product processing mills; and urban wood wastes, municipal solid wastes (MSW), and construction and demolition (C&D) debris. For these forest resources, only residues, wastes, and small-diameter trees were considered. The 2005 BTS did not attempt to include any wood that would normally be used for higher-valued products (e.g., pulpwood) that could potentially shift to bioenergy applications. This would have required a separate economic analysis, which was not part of the 2005 BTS. The agriculture resources in the 2005 BTS included grains used for biofuels production; crop residues derived primarily from corn, wheat, and small grains; and animal manures and other residues. The cropland resource analysis also included estimates of perennial energy crops (e.g., herbaceous grasses, such as switchgrass, woody crops like hybrid poplar, as well as willow grown under short rotations and more intensive management than conventional plantation forests). Woody crops were included under cropland resources because it was assumed that they would be grown on a combination of cropland and pasture rather than forestland. In the 2005 BTS, current resource availability was estimated at 278 million dry tons annually from forestlands and slightly more than 194 million dry tons annually from croplands. These annual quantities increase to about 370 million dry tons from forestlands and to nearly 1 billion dry tons from croplands under scenario conditions of high-yield growth and large-scale plantings of perennial grasses and woody tree crops. This high-yield scenario reflects a mid-century timescale ({approx}2040-2050). Under conditions of lower-yield growth, estimated resource potential was projected to be about 320 and 580 million dry tons for forest and cropland biomass, respectively. As noted earlier, the 2005 BTS emphasized the primary resources (agricultural and forestry residues and energy crops) because they represent nearly 80% of the long-term resource potential. Since publication of the BTS in April 2005, there have been some rather dramatic changes in energy markets. In fact, just prior to the actual publication of the BTS, world oil prices started to increase as a result of a burgeoning worldwide demand and concerns about long-term supplies. By the end of the summer, oil prices topped $70 per barrel (bbl) and catastrophic hurricanes in the Gulf Coast shut down a significant fraction of U.S. refinery capacity. The following year, oil approached $80 per bbl due to supply concerns, as well as continued political tensions in the Middle East. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) was enacted in December of that year. By the end of December 2007, oil prices surpassed $100 per bbl for the first time, and by mid-summer 2008, prices approached $150 per bbl because of supply concerns, speculation, and weakness of the U.S. dollar. As fast as they skyrocketed, oil prices fell, and by the end of 2008, oil prices dropped below $50 per bbl, falling even more a month later due to the global economic recession. In 2009 and 2010, oil prices began to increase again as a result of a weak U.S. dollar and the rebounding of world economies.

Industrial BiotechnologyVol. 7, No. 5 INDUSTRY REPORTBillion Ton Update: Commentary from study leads and US DOERobert D. Perlack, Bryce Stokes, Paul Bryan, and John FerrellRobert D. PerlackSearch for more papers by this author, Bryce StokesSearch for more papers by this author, Paul BryanSearch for more papers by this author, and John FerrellSearch for more papers by this authorPublished Online:24 Oct 2011https://doi.org/10.1089/ind.2011.7.381AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsPermissionsDownload CitationsTrack CitationsAdd to favorites Back To Publication ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsCited byMultifunctional landscapes: Site characterization and field-scale design to incorporate biomass production into an agricultural systemBiomass and Bioenergy, Vol. 80 Volume 7Issue 5Oct 2011 InformationCopyright 2011, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.To cite this article:Robert D. Perlack, Bryce Stokes, Paul Bryan, and John Ferrell.Billion Ton Update: Commentary from study leads and US DOE.Industrial Biotechnology.Oct 2011.381-383.http://doi.org/10.1089/ind.2011.7.381Published in Volume: 7 Issue 5: October 24, 2011PDF download

Landscape implications of bioenergy feedstock choices are significant and depend on land-use practices and their environmental impacts. Although land-use changes and carbon emissions associated with bioenergy feedstock production are dynamic and complicated, lignocellulosic feedstocks may offer opportunities that enhance sustainability when compared to other transportation fuel alternatives. For bioenergy sustainability, major drivers and concerns revolve around energy security, food production, land productivity, soil carbon and erosion, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, air quality, and water quantity and quality. The many implications of bioenergy feedstock choices require several indicators at multiple scales to provide a more complete accounting of effects. Ultimately, the long-term sustainability of bioenergy feedstock resources (as well as food supplies) throughout the world depends on land-use practices and landscape dynamics. Land-management decisions often invoke trade-offs among potential environmental effects and social and economic factors as well as future opportunities for resource use. The hypothesis being addressed in this paper is that sustainability of bioenergy feedstock production can be achieved via appropriately designed crop residue and perennial lignocellulosic systems. We find that decision makers need scientific advancements and adequate data that both provide quantitative and qualitative measures of the effects of bioenergy feedstock choices at different spatial and temporal scales and allow fair comparisons among available options for renewable liquid fuels.

An integrated, socioeconomic-biogeophysical model is used to analyze the interactions of cap-and-trade legislation and the Renewable Fuels Standard. Five alternative policy scenarios were considered with the purpose of identifying policies that act in a synergistic manner to reduce carbon emissions, increase economic returns to agriculture, and adequately meet ethanol mandates. We conclude that climate and energy policies can best be implemented together by offering carbon offset payments to conservation tillage, herbaceous grasses for biomass, and by constraining crop residue removal for ethanol feedstocks to carbon neutral level. When comparing this scenario to the Baseline scenario, the agricultural sector realizes an economic benefit of US$156 billion by 2030 and emissions are reduced by 135 Tg C-equivalent (Eq) yr(-1). Results also indicate that geographic location of cellulosic feedstocks could shift significantly depending on the final policies implemented in cap and trade legislation. Placement of cellulosic ethanol facilities should consider these possible shifts when determining site location.

The Biomass Energy Data Book is a statistical compendium prepared and published by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under contract with the Biomass Program in the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) program of the Department of Energy (DOE). Designed for use as a convenient reference, the book represents an assembly and display of statistics and information that characterize the biomass industry, from the production of biomass feedstocks to their end use, including discussions on sustainability. This is the second edition of the Biomass Energy Data Book which is only available online in electronic format. There are five main sections to this book. The first section is an introduction which provides an overview of biomass resources and consumption. Following the introduction to biomass, is a section on biofuels which covers ethanol, biodiesel and bio-oil. The biopower section focuses on the use of biomass for electrical power generation and heating. The fourth section is on the developing area of biorefineries, and the fifth section covers feedstocks that are produced and used in the biomass industry. The sources used represent the latest available data. There are also four appendices which include frequently needed conversion factors, a table of selected biomass feedstock characteristics, assumptions for selected tables and figures, and discussions on sustainability. A glossary of terms and a list of acronyms are also included for the reader's convenience.

Eff orts are under way to assess the potential contribution of woody crops in meeting mandated cellulosic and advanced biofuel requirements of the recently passed Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA). EISA requires the use of 21 billion gallons of cellulosic and other advanced biofuels by 2022. Th e cellulosic feedstocks required to produce these biofuels can come from a wide variety of cropland and forest land sources and because EISA specifi es use rather than production, imports can also be used to satisfy the mandate. Th e impact of EISA on U.S. agriculture and forestry will very much depend on the relative proportions of cropland- and forest land-derived feedstock and the extent to which imports are used to meet the mandate. Th is paper examines the potential contribution of short-rotation woody crops in meeting the EISA mandate. Th e paper provides an assessment of the current state of the technology for producing woody crops, realistic scenarios of technological change that may impact production technology in 2022, and results of a spatial analysis that show areas of the country where woody crops are most likely to be economically competitive. Included in these results are likely changes in land use (e.g., what land uses are most likely to be displaced) and associated impacts on sustainability and greenhouse gas emissions. Th e paper is national in scope and thus relies on geographic information system techniques to summarize results.