During the devastating 11 March 2011 Japanese tsunami, data from two tsunami detectors were used to determine the tsunami source within 1.5 h of earthquake origin time. For the first time, multiple near-field tsunami measurements of the 2011 Japanese tsunami were used to demonstrate the accuracy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) real-time flooding forecast system in the far field. To test the accuracy of the same forecast system in the near field, a total of 11 numerical models with grids telescoped to 2 arcsec ( 60 m) were developed to hindcast the propagation and coastal inundation of the 2011 Japanese tsunami along the entire east coastline of Japan. Using the NOAA tsunami source computed in near real-time, the model results of tsunami propagation are validated with tsunami time series measured at different water depths offshore and near shore along Japan's coastline. The computed tsunami runup height and spatial distribution are highly consistent with post-tsunami survey data collected along the Japanese coastline. The computed inundation penetration also agrees well with survey data, giving a modeling accuracy of 85.5 % for the inundation areas along 800 km of coastline between Ibaraki Prefecture (north of Kashima) and Aomori Prefecture (south of Rokkasho). The inundation model results highlighted the variability of tsunami impact in response to different offshore bathymetry and flooded terrain. Comparison of tsunami sources inferred from different indirect methods shows the crucial importance of deep-ocean tsunami measurements for real-time tsunami forecasts. The agreement between model results and observations along Japan's coastline demonstrate the ability and potential of NOAA's methodology for real-time near-field tsunami flooding forecasts. An accurate tsunami flooding forecast within 30 min may now be possible using the NOAA forecast methodology with carefully placed tsunameters and large-scale high-resolution inundation models with powerful computing capabilities.

(1) NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA 98115, USA (Vasily.Titov@noaa.gov), (2) Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, Box 357941, Seattle, Washington 98195-4235, USA (Chris.Chamberlin@noaa.gov, Yong.Wei@noaa.gov, Christopher.Moore@noaa.gov, Burak.Uslu@noaa.gov), (3) Middle East Technical University, Department of Engineering Sciences, Ankara, Turkey (kanoglu@metu.edu.tr)

The impact of the 2010 Chilean tsunami along selected coastlines is studied using the NOAA high-resolution tsunami flooding forecast model augmented to include modeled tide heights in addition to deep-water tsunami propagation as boundary-condition input. This Chilean tsunami was observed at the Los Angeles tide station at mean low water, Hilo at low, Pago Pago at mid tide and Wake Island near high tide. Because the tsunami arrived at coastal communities at a representative range of tide stages, the 2010 Chile tsunami provides an opportunity to study the tsunami impact on different communities at different tide levels. The current forecast models are computed for mean higher high water as a worst case scenario. The evaluation of techniques for including predictable fluctuations due to the local tide in this study provides the opportunity to improve tsunami forecasting. To model tides together with tsunami waves in the NOAA flooding model, a medium-resolution tidal model (Egbert and Erofeeva 2002) and the NOAA tsunami propagation model are combined to generate boundary conditions for a high-resolution tsunami flooding model. At the initial time step, the tidal results are interpolated over the entire tsunami propagation grid. At all future time steps, the combined tide and tsunami amplitudes are incorporated into the numerical model from the boundary locations.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) uses geospatial data and GIS analysis techniques in support of building an accurate tsunami forecasting system for the US Tsunami Warning Centers. The resulting forecast products can be integrated into applications and visualizations to assess hazard risk and provide mitigation for US coastal communities ranging from small towns to large urban centers. NCTR also conducts basic research on the nature of tsunami propagation and inundation, which relies on accurate geospatial information. In this chapter, we discuss how we have used both open source and commercially available geospatial technologies to address issues in tsunami research and hazard mitigation - including model visualization, data delivery, and emergency management products. Additionally, we discuss the development and coupling of tsunami model results with coastal risk, vulnerability, and evacuation models, raising the issues of integration, visualization, proliferation of mapping applications, and the ease of use and intended audience of these products.

The objective of this research is to advance the state-of-the-art of disaster loss modeling, with particular emphasis on understanding how mitigating lifeline infrastructure systems can improve the disaster resilience of a community. A model will be developed that focuses on direct social and economic losses. It will be applied to the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP). Key advances in this model will include evaluating lifeline-related losses within the broader context of the disaster, and developing a socio-economic loss model that is agent-based.

During the nineteenth century the export of bulk commodities from West Africa expanded at the expense of slave exports. Research has focused on the political implications of the expansion of so-called “legitimate trade” rather than on its economic character. In the interests of an economic approach, new terminology and a conceptual framework are proposed, and then applied to a historical problem—the levels of competition prevailing in the African trader networks serving the coastal ports. The conclusions of this study are related to the issue of the historical origins of African underdevelopment.