ObjectiveTo assess the ability of baseline MRI characteristics to predict the early development of clinically definite MS (CDMS) and combined CDMS/MRI outcomes in 190 patients with a positive MRI at the time of their first demyelinating event. Methods Based on individual and sets of baseline MRI characteristics, the authors evaluated the percentage of patients meeting outcomes of CDMS and various combined CDMS/MRI outcomes by 18 months. They also optimized a cutpoint for dichotomizing each baseline MRI characteristic and evaluated these variables using logistic regression to determine which MRI characteristics best predicted CDMS by 18 months. Results The presence of two or more gadolinium-enhancing lesions better predicted the development of CDMS and combined CDMS/MRI outcomes by 18 months than any other individual MRI characteristic or set of MRI characteristics. Among patients with two or more gadolinium-enhancing lesions, 52% developed CDMS compared with 24% of patients with fewer than two lesions. For those meeting the criteria of Barkhof et al., 32% of patients developed CDMS compared with 16% of those not meeting these criteria. Irrespective of individual or sets of criteria, however, the majority of patients developed either CDMS or demonstrated disease activity on brain MRI by 18 months. Conclusions For patients with positive MRI at the time of their initial neurologic event, both gadolinium-enhancing lesions and the Barkhof criteria are predictors for development of CDMS over a short interval. However, these results, based on a combined CDMS/MRI outcome, suggest that the majority of these patients are already in the earliest stages of MS, regardless of whether any further MRI criteria are met.

We evaluated 190 patients in the placebo group of the CHAMPS trial in order to assess factors associated with short-term clinical and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) outcomes in patients with a first clinical demyelinating event involving the optic nerve, spinal cord, or brainstem/cerebellum, and subclinical demyelination on brain MRI. The two study outcomes were 1) development of clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) and 2) development of CDMS or two or more new or enlarging brain MRI T2 lesions. The presence of godolinium (Gd)-enhancing lesions on the baseline scan was the only MRI characteristic associated with a higher risk of both the clinical and combined outcomes (p=0.003 and <0.001, respectively). The only demographic or clinical characteristic associated with an increased risk of these outcomes was younger age (p<0.001 for both outcomes). The lowest risk subgroups we could define had a 30% risk of CDMS and a 65% risk of the combined clinical/MRI outcome. Our results indicate that all patients presenting with a first demyelinating event who also have brain MRI evidence of subclinical demyelination have at least a moderate risk of short-term disease activity. This finding provides support for initiating disease-modifying therapy at the time of the first demyelinating event in patients meeting the CHAMPS enrollment criteria.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effect of treatment with interferon beta -1a (Avonex) initiated at the time of a first episode of optic neuritis in patients at high risk for multiple sclerosis (MS). DESIGN: Randomized clinical trial METHODS: Prospective. SETTING: Fifty clinical centers throughout the US and Canada. STUDY POPULATION: After the onset of a first episode of optic neuritis treated with intravenous and oral corticosteroids, 192 patients with brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) evidence of subclinical demyelination were randomly assigned to receive weekly intramuscular injections of 30 mug interferon beta -1a or placebo. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The study outcomes were the development of clinically definite MS within 3 years of follow,up and brain MRI changes at 6, 12, and 18 months. RESULTS: The rates of clinically definite MS and of a combined MS/MRI outcome were lower in the interferon beta -1a group than in the placebo group (adjusted rate ratios 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.34 to 1.00; and 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.34 to 0.73, respectively). Compared with the placebo group, on the 18,month brain MRI the interferon beta -1a group had a smaller change from baseline in T2 lesion volume (P = .02), fewer new or enlarging T2 lesions (P < .001), and a lower frequency of Gd-enhancing lesions (P < .001). CONCLUSION: The clinical and brain MRI results of this trial support initiating interferon beta -1a treatment at the time of a first episode of optic neuritis occurring in patients at high risk for MS based on the presence of subclinical brain MRI lesions. (C) 2001 by Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Background and Objective: A phase III double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial demonstrated that interferon beta-la (IFNβ-1a) (Avonex, Biogen) significantly delayed progression of disability in relapsing MS patients. The primary clinical outcome was time from study entry until disability progression, defined as≥1.0 point worsening from baseline Kurtzke Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score persisting for at least two consecutive scheduled visits separated by 6 months. The objective of this study was to examine the magnitude of benefit on EDSS and its clinical significance. Methods: Post hoc analyses related to disability outcomes using data collected during the double-blind, placebo-controlled phase III clinical trial. Results: (1) Clinical efficacy related to disability did not depend on the definition of disability progression. A significant benefit in favor of IFNβ-1a was observed when ≥2.0 point worsening from baseline EDSS was required or when worsening was required to persist for ≥1.0 year. (2) Placebo recipients who reached the primary clinical outcome worsened by a larger amount from baseline EDSS than did IFNβ-1a recipients who reached the primary study outcome. (3) Significantly fewer IFNβ-1a recipients progressed to EDSS milestones of 4.0 (relatively severe impairment) or 6.0(unilateral assistance needed to walk). (4) Cox proportional hazards models demonstrated that the only baseline characteristic strongly correlated with longer time to disability progression was IFNβ-1a treatment. Conclusions: The primary clinical outcome for the IFNβ-1a clinical trial underestimated clinical benefits of treatment. Results in this report demonstrate that IFNβ-1a treatment is associated with robust, clinically important beneficial effects on disability progression in relapsing MS patients.

We determined inter- and intrarater Kurtzke Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scoring agreement for four trained examining physicians who evaluated 10 clinically stable multiple sclerosis patients. These patients had previously been determined to have EDSS scores of 1.0 to 3.5 and were scheduled to participate in a funded clinical trial of intramuscular recombinant interferon-beta. Intrarater reliability was greater than interrater reliability for scoring the EDSS and all of its component functional systems scores (FSS). Specifically, individual examiners were able to reproduce three serial examination scores on the same patient on the same day (intrarater agreement) within 1.0 EDSS or 2.0 individual FSS points. Reproducible scoring across examiners (interrater agreement), however, could only be accomplished within 1.5 EDSS or 3.0 individual FSS points. Additionally, the interrater scoring variability in our patients is greater than that previously reported for patients with higher EDSS scores. We conclude that clinical trials that employ the EDSS as an outcome measure of treatment efficacy should include inter- and intrarater agreement data for all examining physicians. Most importantly, studies using a single examining physician to evaluate individual patients throughout the course of a clinical trial will require less change in the EDSS to reliably measure disease activity than will studies using more than one examining physician to evaluate individual patients throughout the trial.