The aim of this study was to examine the benefits of hastening the introduction of new passenger vehicle technologies on future reductions in fatalities and serious injuries on Australian roads. This was done specifically for Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) and Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communications, which represent the two most promising technologies in the short-term and medium-term future. The results demonstrate that a delay in introduction, or a slower rate of introduction, can have a substantial effect on how long it takes for the safety benefits to be realised in the greater vehicle fleet.

Testing of the safety of manufactured products is typically conducted under a specified set of conditions. For example, when projecting an instrumented headform at the front of a car to assess the pedestrian safety of that model of car, the speed of the headform is specified. But surely, if they were asked, the public and policymakers would say that the result at one speed is a rather artificial measure, and they instead wish to know the average level of safety across real-world impact scenarios. One possible solution is to directly test across the range of conditions and combinations of conditions. However, manufacturers typically want to economise by conducting fewer tests. This article considers how to determine a product's saftey for a range of conditions, while also being economical with the testing. What is proposed has three steps. The first is to generalise the quantity observed in test conditions to what would be observed under different conditions. This is likely to involve a theory and a formula. For example, in a headform impact test the quantity observed might be HIC (the Head Injury Criterion), the condition that varies might be impact speed, and a formula might be available for the dependence of HIC on speed. The second is to convert the test quantity to something that is meaningfully averaged. This might be the dollar cost associated with a particular level of HIC, or perhaps the probability of death. The third is to obtain the average, by integration over the condition that varies from crash to crash (such as impact speed). In principle, this procedure is quite general and applicable to many other forms of testing. Good information is required for the three steps, but this is inherent in aiming for a broad-based result, rather than due to the method. References P. H. Deitz. A V/L taxonomy for analyzing ballistic live-fire events. Proceedings of the 15th International Symposium on Military Operational Research, 1998. http://ismor.cds.cranfield.ac.uk/15th-symposium-1998 R. G. Herbert and D. C. McWhannell. Shape and frequency composition of pulses from an impact pair. J. Eng. Ind. 99:513–518, 1977. doi:10.1115/1.3439270 K. H. Hunt and F. R. E. Crossley. Coefficient of restitution interpreted as damping in vibroimpact. J. Appl. Mech. 42:440–445, 1975. doi:10.1115/1.3423596 T. P. Hutchinson. Dependence of the Head Injury Criterion and maximum acceleration on headform mass and initial velocity in tests simulating pedestrian impacts with vehicles. J. Biomech. Eng. 135:114508, 2013. doi:10.1115/1.4025331 T. P. Hutchinson. Experimental injury: Inference from proxy observations in a test to the real-world average. J. Battlefield Tech. 18(1):1–6, 2015. http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=958266262006914;res=IELENG T. P. Hutchinson, R. W. G. Anderson and D. J. Searson. Pedestrian headform testing: Inferring performance at impact speeds and for headform masses not tested, and estimating average performance in a range of real-world conditions. Traffic Inj. Prev. 13:402–411, 2012. doi:10.1080/15389588.2012.660252 T. P. Hutchinson, D. J. Searson, R. W. G. Anderson, J. K. Dutschke, G. Ponte and A. L. van den Berg. Protection of the unhelmeted head against blunt impact: The pedestrian and the car bonnet. Proceedings of the Australasian Road Safety Research, Policing and Education Conference, 2011. http://acrs.org.au/files/arsrpe/Protection%20of%20the%20unhelmeted%20head%20against%20blunt%20impact.pdf W. Kokinakis and J. Sperrazza. Criteria for incapacitating soldiers with fragments and flechettes. Technical Report 1269, Ballistic Research Laboratories, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD, 1965. http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/359774.pdf R. VanAmburg. An approach to analyze personnel injury of reflective spall from small-arms protective body armor. Technical Report ARL-TR-5595, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD, 2011. http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a550618.pdf R. B. Webby, P. T. Adamson, J. Boland, P. G. Howlett, A. V. Metcalfe and J. Piantadosi. The Mekong–-applications of value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) simulation to the benefits, costs and consequences of water resources development in a large river basin. Ecological Modelling, 201:89–96, 2007. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.07.033

The aim of this study was to consult experts from Australia and overseas about their views on emerging technologies, the likely uptake of these technologies and their potential to reduce the number of crashes or crash severity. Interviews were conducted with a cross-section of vehicle and road safety experts. The topics discussed included the most promising technologies, implementation issues, time frame, limitations, and opinions on future technologies, 20 - 30 years from now. In total, 16 interviews were conducted, with nine Australian-based experts and seven international experts. The experts' responses are discussed in the context of research literature on the technologies. The experts suggested that the most important emerging vehicle safety technologies are primary safety systems that provide increasing levels of automation. Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) was consistently identified as having the most potential in the near future, and this was confirmed in the literature. Early introduction of vehicle safety systems that are effective at preventing injury crashes will result in significant and cumulative financial and societal savings. This paper provides a brief overview of the more promising vehicle safety technologies, a summary of the opinions of the experts interviewed and potential mechanisms for accelerating uptake of vehicle safety technologies.

The popularity of motorcycling in South Australia is rising and there have been increasing numbers in registrations and total distance travelled by riders. However, motorcyclists remain vulnerable road users and are at a higher risk of being involved in a serious crash. In 2012, motorcycle crashes were 17.5 times more likely to result in a fatality in SA relative to other vehicles, per distance travelled. There have been considerable improvements to passenger vehicle safety over the last few decades but little has changed regarding safety for motorcycles. This report describes the relatively new technologies of anti-lock braking systems (ABS), combined braking systems (CBS) and traction control systems (TCS) for motorcycles, and the effectiveness of these systems in reducing motorcycle crashes. Mechanisms to encourage uptake of these technologies are also presented. ABS appears to be the most beneficial of these technologies and an analysis of ABS is included, estimating the potential benefit of the technology for South Australian motorcyclists

A novel application of age-period-cohort methods are used to explain changes in vehicle based crash rates in New South Wales, Australia over the period 2003-2010. Models are developed using vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort to explain changes in the rate of single vehicle driver fatalities and injuries in vehicles less than 13 years of age. Large declines in risk are associated with vehicle cohorts built after about 1996. The decline in risk appears to have accelerated to 12 percent per vehicle cohort year for cohorts since 2004. Within each cohort, the risk of crashing appears to be a minimum at two years of age and increases as the vehicle ages beyond this. Period effects (i.e., other road safety measures) between 2003 and 2010 appear to have contributed to declines of up to about two percent per annum to the driver-fatality single vehicle crash rate, and possibly only negligible improvements to the driver-injury single vehicle crash rate. Vehicle improvements appear to have been responsible for a decline in per-vehicle crash risk of at least three percent per calendar year for both severity levels over the same period. Given the decline in risk associated with more recent vehicle cohorts and the dynamics of fleet turnover, continued declines in per-vehicle crash risk over coming years are almost certain. (C) 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

New vehicle safety technologies continue to be developed. This report aims to assess the future impact of light vehicle safety technologies in Australia over the next 30 years. This report includes a literature review, consultation with experts regarding the possible trend in injury reduction over the next 30 years from AEB (Autonomous Emergency Braking) and V2V (Vehicle-to-Vehicle communication). The experts suggested that the most important emerging vehicle safety technologies are primary safety systems that provide increasing levels of autonomy, driver warnings and driver monitoring. AEB was consistently identified as having the most potential in the near future, and this was confirmed in the review of literature. Results demonstrated the importance of introducing new safety technologies as early and as quickly as possible. The experts suggested this could be achieved through mandating the installation of safety technologies, reducing insurance premiums for vehicles with safety technologies, and encouraging their uptake through consumer information and new vehicle assessment programs.

This paper discusses a model that estimates the effect of a change in impact velocity on vehicle impact response. The motivation of the study is to develop a model that will be able to predict occupant injury risk over a range of speeds based on performance in standard crash tests. The model comprises a tipped equivalent square wave (TESW) acceleration pulse to model the vehicle acceleration that is dependent on impact speed. The model was used to analyse data from five full‐width rigid‐barrier impact testing carried out at five speeds. Analyses were selected to investigate the relationship between impact speed, vehicle dynamic crush and mean impact acceleration. The results suggest that it is possible to model vehicle impact response (specifically the magnitude of dynamic crush and mean vehicle impact acceleration) using a bi‐linear, impact‐velocity‐dependent relationship, based on a limited number of crash tests. Models such as these may provide a means of integrating assessment of vehicle crashworthiness with the assessment of primary safety technologies designed to reduce the speed of crashes.

Pedestrian impact testing is used to provide information to the public about the relative level of protection provided by different vehicles to a struck pedestrian. Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) is a relatively new technology that aims to reduce the impact speed of such crashes. It is expected that vehicles with AEB will pose less harm to pedestrians, and that the benefit will come about through reductions in the number of collisions and a change in the severity of impacts that will still occur. In this paper, an integration of the assessment of AEB performance and impact performance is proposed based on average injury risk. Average injury risk is calculated using the result of an impact test and a previously published distribution of real world crash speeds. A second published speed distribution is used that accounts for the effects of AEB, and reduced average risks are implied. This principle allows the effects of AEB systems and secondary safety performance to be integrated into a single measure of safety. The results are used to examine the effect of AEB on Euro NCAP and ANCAP assessments using previously published results on the likely effect of AEB. The results show that, given certain assumptions about AEB performance, the addition of AEB is approximately the equivalent of increasing Euro NCAP test performance by one band, which corresponds to an increase in the score of 25% of the maximum.

Seat belt interlocks are a vehicle safety technology that aims to increase seat belt usage by restricting the vehicle from being driven until occupants have fastened their seat belts. The aim of this study was to estimate the potential effectiveness of mandatory seat belt interlocks on new vehicles. Three data sets were used to obtain vehicle age profiles for unrestrained drivers: an observational study from 2009 (belt use 98 per cent), hospital admission data from 2008-2010 (belt use 89 per cent), and Coronerrs report data from 2008 (belt use 66 per cent). A hypothetical scenario was considered in which seat belt interlocks were made mandatory in all new vehicle models from 2015 onwards. Under this scenario, the vehicle age profiles from each dataset were used to examine the time it would take for seat belt interlocks to be a feature in vehicles driven by those who would otherwise not be wearing a seat belt. These results were used to calculate a lbest caser estimate of the potential effectiveness of seat belt interlocks: by 2030 there would be a potential 2 per cent reduction in injuries requiring hospital admission, and a 7 per cent reduction in fatalities. By 2050 these values would approach 5 per cent and 16 per cent respectively. These reductions would apply on top of any casualty savings already made through enhanced vehicle technologies, infrastructure and regulations. Despite the relatively long time required for interlocks to reach maximum effectiveness, their introduction would have low marginal costs.

Background. Hardware, software, and people are often tested in one set of conditions, but are expected to perform under many different circumstances. For example, consider pedestrian headform testing. An approximate sphere, with an accelerometer inside it, is projected at the front of a car. The speed is specified, but real pedestrian impacts are at a wide range of speeds. The headform mass is specified, but real pedestrians have a range of effective head masses. The acceleration trace is summarised in order to check that the car is not overly injurious if a pedestrian is struck. This paper will set out the principles of calculating the real-world consequences --- that is, averaged over the range of speeds and effective head masses --- of a particular test result under specified test conditions. Such a calculation is not common in the road safety world, and we do not think it is common in other testing contexts. It is a specific example of the more general problem of using performance in particular test conditions to estimate average real-world performance. (But note that the discussion is not primarily about going from one condition to another, such as from harsh conditions in which failure is accelerated to normal conditions in which failure is infrequent. At least in our context, the test conditions are realistic. The issue is rather that of averaging over a variety of conditions.) Proposed procedure. It is proposed to calculate an estimate of the average level of performance --- averaged over different conditions, that is. This calculation has three components. (1) An equation for the dependence of performance on conditions. (2) An equation for the cost of (i.e., how bad or good are) different levels of performance. (3) The probabilities of different conditions. The three components come together in a summation or integration that represents the averaging over different impact conditions. Applications. The equation permits, for example, the calculation of the changes that result if test performance is improved, or the probabilities of different conditions change. This paper will present the specific methods we have developed, and will suggest they can be expressed in quite general language. Our interest is in impact testing, but the core issue --- the implications for average real-world performance of a test in one set of conditions --- must be in the minds of people concerned with a great variety of tests.

Current safety testing protocols typically evaluate performance at a single test speed, which may have undesirable side effects if vehicles are optimised to perform at that speed without consideration to performance at other speeds. One way of overcoming this problem is by using an evaluation that incorporates the distribution of speeds that would be encountered in real crashes, the relationship between test speed and test performance, and the relationship between test performance and injury risk. Such an evaluation is presented in this paper and is applied to pedestrian headform testing. The applicable distribution of pedestrian impact speeds was compiled from in-depth crash data. Values of the Head Injury Criterion across the speed distribution were imputed from a single test result, taking into account the potential for 'bottoming out' on harder structures beneath the hood. Two different risk functions were used: skull fracture risk and fatal head injury risk. Eight example test locations were evaluated; each had an underhood clearance such that it would perform worse at higher speeds than suggested by its original test result. When the effect of bottoming out was included in the evaluation, the calculated average injury risk was generally higher than it was if bottoming out was ignored. The average risk of fatal head injury was more affected by the inclusion of bottoming out than the average skull fracture risk. The methodology presented in this paper may be extended to other forms of impact testing, although the input functions may be more difficult to derive for more complex tests.

Longitudinal data on work-related road crashes in Australia is limited. Available data indicates a significant number of work-related fatal and serious crashes. Fleet vehicles are assumed to account for a large proportion of work-related driving. The aims of this research are to estimate the size of the burden of fleet-related fatal and serious crashes involving light vehicles in South Australia. Data on fatal and serious crashes that occurred over a five-year period in South Australia was analysed. Fleet vehicles were identified using the vehicle identification number. There were 290 light fleet vehicles involved in 282 fatal and serious crashes. The drivers and passengers of the fleet vehicles sustained 181 casualties. An occupant of a fleet vehicle was most severely injured in 25.5 per cent of multiple party crashes. The drivers of fleet vehicles were responsible for the crash in 38.2 per cent of multiple party crashes. Light vehicle fleet-related fatalities make up one-third of all South Australian work-related road fatalities.