Offender rehabilitation effectively reduces recidivism for treatment groups compared to control groups, but there is less evidence demonstrating that intra-individual changes are related to reductions in risk. We review and critique academic and government literature linking individual change scores to recidivism, focusing on three key treatment domains: cognition, violence, and substance misuse. Database searches identified 378 studies measuring change, but only 53 studies yielding 49 explicit tests of the relationship between intra-individual change scores and recidivism outcome. Of the 49 available tests, 26 effect sizes (53.1%) were significant, ranging from small (d=0.06) to large (d=1.48). Across all domains, change variables significantly related to recidivism included known dynamic risk factors: antisocial attitudes, antisocial beliefs, antisocial associates, antisocial personality, social support, and substance misuse. Two additional findings centered on changes in negative emotion and successful treatment process. This review further suggests there is a need to utilize better measurement strategies and more sophisticated constructs. Additional practical, theoretical, and methodological implications are discussed.

Evaluating the extent to which case management practices are guided by risk/need assessment is important because the impact of the assessment process will not be realized if the instrument is not applied as fully intended. This study investigated whether risk/need assessment is linked to the case management of young offenders and whether adherence to the principles of risk, need, and responsivity, as part of the case management plan, is related to recidivism. Data were collected on a sample of 192 young offenders. The Level of Service Inventory–Saskatchewan Youth Edition (LSI-SK) total score and seven of the eight subscale scores were positively correlated with recidivism. Generally, the LSI-SK was used to inform supervision intensity and interventions toward criminogenic needs. Moreover, adherence to the need principle was associated with reductions in recidivism. Implications for case management and direction for future research are discussed.

The relationship between sexual recidivism and posttreatment denial and minimization was examined among 436 sex offenders followed up for an average period of more than 5 years. Treatment completion status and psychopathic traits, both established predictors of sexual recidivism also associated with denial and minimization, were included in survival analyses to remove their confounding influence on the focal relationships. The potential role of actuarial risk as a moderating variable was also investigated. A dichotomous variable reflecting denial and minimization failed to predict sexual recidivism. However, among a subset of 102 sex offenders who received no additional treatment after completing an initial program, the interaction between actuarial risk and scores on a continuous measure of minimization predicted sexual recidivism. Implications for assessment, particularly the need to move beyond dichotomous operationalizations of denial and minimization, and treatment were discussed.