Extreme mesoscale weather, including tropical cyclones, squall lines, and floods, can be enormously damaging and yet challenging to simulate; hence, there is a pressing need for more efficient simulation strategies. Here, we present a new rare event sampling algorithm called quantile diffusion Monte Carlo (quantile DMC). Quantile DMC is a simple-to-use algorithm that can sample extreme tail behavior for a wide class of processes. We demonstrate the advantages of quantile DMC compared to other sampling methods and discuss practical aspects of implementing quantile DMC. To test the feasibility of quantile DMC for extreme mesoscale weather, we sample extremely intense realizations of two historical tropical cyclones, 2010 Hurricane Earl and 2015 Hurricane Joaquin. Our results demonstrate quantile DMC’s potential to provide low-variance extreme weather statistics while highlighting the work that is necessary for quantile DMC to attain greater efficiency in future applications.

Abstract Direct computer simulation of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in weather models is limited by computational expense. Intense TCs are rare and have small‐scale structures, making it difficult to produce large ensembles of storms at high resolution. Further, models often fail to capture the process of rapid intensification, which is a distinguishing feature of many intense TCs. Understanding rapid intensification is especially important in the context of global warming, which may increase the frequency of intense TCs. To better leverage computational resources for the study of rapid intensification, we introduce an action minimization algorithm applied to the Weather Research and Forecasting and WRFPLUS models. Action minimization nudges the model into forming more intense TCs than it otherwise would; it does so via the maximum likelihood path in a stochastic formulation of the model, thereby allowing targeted study of intensification mechanisms. We apply action minimization to simulations of Hurricanes Danny (2015) and Fred (2009) at 6‐km resolution to demonstrate that the algorithm consistently intensifies TCs via physically plausible pathways. We show an approximately tenfold computational savings using action minimization to study the tail of the TC intensification distribution. Further, for Hurricanes Danny and Fred, action minimization produces perturbations that preferentially reduce low‐level shear as compared to upper‐level shear, at least above a threshold of approximately 4 m/s. We also demonstrate that asymmetric, time‐dependent patterns of heating can cause significant TC intensification beyond symmetric, azimuthally averaged heating and find a regime of nonlinear response to asymmetric heating that has not been extensively studied in previous work.

The ice-albedo feedback on rapidly rotating terrestrial planets in the habitable zone can lead to abrupt transitions (bifurcations) between a warm and a snowball (ice-covered) state, bistability between these states, and hysteresis in planetary climate. This is important for planetary habitability because snowball events may trigger rises in the complexity of life, but could also endanger complex life that already exists. Recent work has shown that planets tidally locked in synchronous rotation states will transition smoothly into the snowball state rather than experiencing bifurcations. Here we investigate the structure of snowball bifurcations on planets that are tidally influenced, but not synchronously rotating, so that they experience long solar days. We use PlaSIM, an intermediate-complexity global climate model, with a thermodynamic mixed layer ocean and the Sun’s spectrum. We find that the amount of hysteresis (the range in stellar flux for which there is bistability in climate) is significantly reduced for solar days with lengths of tens of Earth days, and disappears for solar days of hundreds of Earth days. These results suggest that tidally influenced planets orbiting M and K stars that are not synchronously rotating could have much less hysteresis associated with the snowball bifurcations than they would if they were rapidly rotating. This implies that the amount of time it takes them to escape a snowball state via CO2 outgassing would be greatly reduced, as would the period of cycling between the warm and snowball state if they have low CO2 outgassing rates.

The Kuroshio south of Japan is often described as being bimodal, with abrupt transitions between a straight path state that stays near the coast (small meander) and a meandering state that deviates from the coast (large meander). Despite evidence of the existence of two or more states of the Kuroshio, previous data-driven studies have shown only high variability of the current; they have not, however, demonstrated bimodality in the sense of two states of relatively high probability separated by a region of relatively low probability. We use singular value decomposition (SVD), a standard time series analysis method for characterizing variability, and diffusion maps and spectral clustering (DMSC), a machine learning algorithm that seeks multimodality, to investigate Kuroshio reanalysis output. By applying these methods to a time series of velocity fields, we find that (1) the Kuroshio is bimodal, with high inflow and low path variability in the small meander and low inflow and high path variability in the large meander, (2) the state of the system correlates highly with the location of the recirculation gyre south of Japan, and (3) the meanders are better characterized by path variability than by mean path. Because these results are consistent with satellite sea surface height data, they are not an artifact of the model used for reanalysis. Further, our results provide evidence for a previously proposed transition mechanism based on the strengthening, migration, and weakening of the recirculation gyre south of Japan and can therefore help direct future modeling studies.

We sampled interstitial air from the perennial snowpack (firn) at a site near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS-D) and analyzed the air samples for a wide variety of gas species and their isotopes. We find limited convective influence (1.4–5.2 m, depending on detection method) in the shallow firn, gravitational enrichment of heavy species throughout the diffusive column in general agreement with theoretical expectations, a ~10 m thick lock-in zone beginning at ~67 m, and a total firn thickness consistent with predictions of Kaspers et al. (2004). Our modeling work shows that the air has an age spread (spectral width) of 4.8 yr for CO2 at the firn-ice transition. We also find that advection of firn air due to the 22 cm yr−1 ice-equivalent accumulation rate has a minor impact on firn air composition, causing changes that are comparable to other modeling uncertainties and intrinsic sample variability. Furthermore, estimates of Δage (the gas age/ice age difference) at WAIS-D appear to be largely unaffected by bubble closure above the lock-in zone. Within the lock-in zone, small gas species and their isotopes show evidence of size-dependent fractionation due to permeation through the ice lattice with a size threshold of 0.36 nm, as at other sites. We also see an unequivocal and unprecedented signal of oxygen isotope fractionation within the lock-in zone, which we interpret as the mass-dependent expression of a size-dependent fractionation process.

In this study, we report measurements of CFC-12 (CCl2F2) in firn air and in air extracted from shallow ice cores from three Antarctic sites. The firn air data are consistent with the known atmospheric history of CFC-12. In contrast, some of the ice core samples collected near the firn-ice transition exhibit anomalously high CFC-12 levels. Together, the ice core and firn air data provide evidence for the presence of modern air entrapped in the shallow ice core samples that likely contained open pores at the time of collection. We propose that this is due to closure of the open pores after drilling, entrapping modern air and resulting in elevated CFC-12 mixing ratios. Our results reveal that open porosity can exist below the maximum depth at which firn air samples can be collected, particularly at sites with lower accumulation rates. CFC-12 measurements demonstrate that post-drilling closure of open pores can lead to a change in the composition of bubble air in shallow ice cores through purely physical processes. The results have implications for investigations involving trace gas composition of bubbles in shallow ice cores collected near the firn-ice transition.