The aim of this paper was to compare effects of organic and mineral fertilizers on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from legume grasslands in Finland. We invoke DNDC, a process-based model that integrates effects of agricultural practices, soil characteristics, nitrogen mass balance and climate change on GHG emissions from soil-plant ecosystems. Data measured in the field were collected from 2017 to 2020 using an eddy covariance site cultivated with legume grass species (Phleum pratense L., Festuca pratensis Huds, Trifolium pratense L., Hordeum vulgare L.) at Anttila, Maaninka, eastern Finland. The focus of the modelling was to evaluate the performance of DNDC heat exchange version under two distinct management practices: organic input, utilizing digestate residue (slurry), and mineral input (NPK) with chemical fertilizer. The primary emphasis was on understanding the model's accuracy in simulating greenhouse gas emissions and comparing the total annual greenhouse gas exchanges between these two management approaches. The DNDC heat exchange model version was calibrated and validated for key processes, including Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), Ecosystem Respiration (Reco), Soil Temperature, and Water-Filled Pore Space (WFPS) at 5 cm and 20 cm depths. The model demonstrated satisfactory performance in estimating the total annual GHG exchanges during validation years under both management practices. For the mineral treatment, the model demonstrated fair performance (Spearman's correlation (ρ) for GPP (0.81), NEE (0.72), and Reco (0.85)). Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values indicated reasonable agreement between model predictions and measured data. Notably, soil temperature simulations demonstrated an excellent correlation (ρ=0.99) with low RMSE and MAE. Water-Filled Pore Space (WFPS) at both 5 cm and 20 cm depths exhibited good correlations, with acceptable RMSE and MAE values. Similarly, for organic inputs, the DNDC model had fair correlation (ρ) for GPP (0.81), NEE (0.72), and Reco (0.85). Soil temperature and WFPS at 5 cm presented high positive correlations (ρ=0.98 and 0.55), accompanied by low RMSE and MAE. WFPS at 20cm, while exhibiting good correlation (ρ=0.065), displayed a slightly elevated RMSE and MAE. Overall, we conclude that the model offered valuable insights into GHG dynamics associated with organic and mineral fertilization practices. Overestimation of biomass yield for some of the data by DNDC suggests that future work would be well placed targeting physiology determinants of biomass in the model.

While grasslands are the cornerstone of Finnish livestock industries, practices for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are not well elucidated. Here, we used eddy covariance flux data measured on clover grassland in eastern Finland to calibrate and validate the Heat Exchange DNDC (HE-DNDC) model in response to synthetic mineral (Nmin) and organic manure (Norg) fertilizer. The study covered an entire grass/crop rotational cycle, and the study years were represented as R1 (May 20, 2017-May 19, 2018), R2 (May 20, 2018-May 19, 2019), and R3 (May 20, 2019-May 19, 2020). Simulated carbon flux was good/fair, evidenced by relatively high Mean Absolute Error (MAE) (11.1-20.9 kg C ha-1) for both the treatments. For over 60 % of the observations, simulated biomass yield values were within one standard deviation of the measured values, indicating reasonable simulation accuracy. Cumulative measured N2O emissions were 7.5 kg N ha-1 (Nmin) and 10.9 kg N ha-1 (Norg), with simulations closely matching Nmin (6.9 kg N ha-1), but underestimating Norg (7.3 kg N ha-1). Simulated net GHG balance (NGB) indicated that grasslands were a carbon sink for Norg in R1. During R2 and R3 (crop re-establishment) grasslands became a carbon source regardless of fertilizer treatment. We conclude that DNDC provides a reasonable estimation of the magnitude and timing of GHG fluxes associated with organic and mineral fertilizer application in boreal grasslands, although significant improvements are needed in simulating processes governing N2O emissions.

Background While livestock products comprise the cornerstone of food security, livestock managers face the dual challenge of adapting to a climate crisis and sustainably reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Climatic variability and extreme weather events impact the agri-food chain, hindering global agricultural productivity and threatening safe, nutritious, and affordable livestock products. Scope and Approach This review delves into five key aspects: (1) the cultural, socio-economic, and food security importance of livestock, (2) the impact of climatic, economic, and geopolitical shocks on the global livestock sector, (3) the livestock sector's role in climate change, (4) opportunities for transitioning to inclusive, sustainable livestock farming systems, and (5) prerequisites and transformative initiatives for the livestock sector. Key Findings and Conclusions Climatic, economic, and geopolitical shocks have increased, particularly affecting the poultry, dairy, and small ruminant sectors in the last three decades. These shocks have amplified risks of contravening tipping points. Low adaptive capacity and high vulnerability to the climate emergency demand place-based adaptation. Interventions reducing food waste and restoring tropical forests offer the greatest mitigation potential, while agrivoltaics and on-shore wind production appear most promising economically. Trade-offs between production, conservation, prosperity, and mitigation demand contextualization and co-design of innovations for credibility, legitimacy, and adoptability.

Societal Impact Statement Despite comprising a small proportion of global agricultural land use, irrigated agriculture is enormously important to the global agricultural economy. Burgeoning food demand driven by population growth—together with reduced food supply caused by the climate crisis—is polarising the existing tension between water used for agricultural production versus that required for environmental conservation. We show that sustainable intensification via more diverse crop rotations, more efficient water application infrastructure and greater farm area under irrigation is conducive to greater farm business profitability under future climates. Summary Research aimed at improving crop productivity often does not account for the complexity of real farms underpinned by land‐use changes in space and time. Here, we demonstrate how a new framework— WaterCan Profit —can be used to elicit such complexity using an irrigated case study farm with four whole‐farm adaptation scenarios ( Baseline , Diversified , Intensified and Simplified ) with four types of irrigated infrastructure ( Gravity , Pipe & Riser , Pivot and Drip ). Without adaptation, the climate crisis detrimentally impacted on farm profitability due to the combination of increased evaporative demand and increased drought frequency. Whole‐farm intensification—via greater irrigated land use, incorporation of rice, cotton and maize and increased nitrogen fertiliser application—was the only adaptation capable of raising farm productivity under future climates. Diversification through incorporation of grain legumes into crop rotations significantly improved profitability under historical climates; however, profitability of this adaptation declined under future climates. Simplified systems reduced economic risk but also had lower long‐term economic returns. We conclude with four key insights: (1) When assessing whole‐farm profit, metrics matter: Diversified systems generally had higher profitability than Intensified systems per unit water, but not per unit land area; (2) gravity‐based irrigation infrastructure required the most water, followed by sprinkler systems, whereas Drip irrigation used the least water; (3) whole‐farm agronomic adaptation through management and crop genotype had greater impact on productivity compared with changes in irrigation infrastructure; and (4) only whole‐farm intensification was able to raise profitability under future climates.

Carbon removals associated with incremental gains in soil organic carbon (SOC) at scale have enormous potential to mitigate global warming, yet confusion over contexts that elicit SOC accrual abound. Here, we examine how bespoke interventions (through irrigation, fertiliser, crop type and rotations), antecedent SOC levels and soil type impact on long-term SOC accrual and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using a whole farm systems modelling approach informed using participatory research, we discovered an inverse relationship between antecedent SOC stocks and SOC gains realised following intervention, with greater initial SOC levels resulting in lower ex poste change in SOC. We found that SOC accrual was greatest for clays and least for sands, although changes in SOC in sandy loam soils were also low. Diversified whole farm adaptations – implemented through inclusion of grain legumes within wheat/canola crop rotations – were more conducive to improvement in SOC stocks, followed by Intensified systems (implemented through greater rates of irrigation, farm areas under irrigation, nitrogen fertiliser and inclusion of rice and maize in crop rotations). Adaptations that Simplified farm systems by reducing irrigation and fertiliser use resulted in the lowest SOC accrual. In most cases, long-term SOC stocks fell when SOC at the outset was greater than 4–5%, regardless of intervention made, soil or crop type, crop rotation, production system or climate. We contend that (1) management interventions primarily impacted SOC in the soil surface (0–30 cm) and had de minimus impact on deep SOC stocks (30–100 cm), (2) crop rotations including wheat, canola and faba beans were more conducive to improvement in SOC stocks, (3) scenarios with high status quo SOC had little impact on crop productivity, and not necessarily the lowest GHG emissions intensity, (4) productivity and GHG emissions intensity were largely a function of the quantum of nitrogenous fertiliser added, rather than SOC stocks, and (5) aspirations for improving SOC are likely to be futile if antecedent SOC stocks are already high (4–5 %). We conclude that potential for improving SOC stocks exists in contexts where antecedent stocks are low (<1%), which may include regions with land degradation, chronic erosion and/or other constraints to vegetative ground cover that could be sustainably and consistently alleviated.

Past assessments report negative impacts of the climate crisis in boreal areas; but milder and shorter winters and elevated atmospheric CO 2 may provide opportunities for agricultural productivity potentially playing a significant role in future food security. Arable cropping systems are expanding in boreal areas, but the regional mainstay will likely continue to be livestock production. Agroecological models can when appropriately calibrated and evaluated, facilitate improved productivity while minimising environmental impacts by identifying system interactions, and quantifying greenhouse gas emissions, soil carbon stocks and fertiliser use. While models designed for temperate and tropical zones abound, few are developed specifically for boreal zones, and there is uncertainty around the performance of existing models in boreal areas. We reviewed model performance across boreal environments and management systems. We identified a dearth of modelling studies in boreal regions, with the publication of three or less papers per year since the year 2000, constituting a significant research gap. Models IFSM and BASGRA_N performed best in grassland production, DNDC best in predicting soil N 2 O and NH 3 emissions. No model outperformed all others, strengthening the case for ensemble modelling. Existing agroecological models would be worthy of further evaluation, providing model improvements designed for boreal systems.

With global warming, arable land in boreal regions is tending to expand into high latitude regions in the northern hemisphere. This entails certain risks; such that inappropriate management could result in previously stable carbon sinks becoming sources. Agroecological models are an important tool for assessing the sustainability of long-term management, yet applications of such models in boreal zones are scarce. We collated eddy-covariance, soil climate and biomass data to evaluate the simulation of GHG emissions from grassland in eastern Finland using the process-based model DNDC. We simulated gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) with fair performance. Soil climate, soil temperature and soil moisture at 5 cm were excellent, and soil moisture at 20 cm was good. However, the model overestimated NEE and Reco following crop termination and tillage events. These results indicate that DNDC can satisfactorily simulate GHG fluxes in a boreal grassland setting, but further work is needed, particularly in simulated second biomass cuts, the (>20 cm) soil layers and model response to management transitions between crop types, cultivation, and land use change.

Soils in less favoured areas, (LFA's) defined as areas where unfavourable environmental conditions allow only extensive farming systems such as livestock rearing, are relatively stable, being rarely ploughed or disturbed, and cover extensive upland regions of the UK and Europe. Under low intensity management these soils have the potential to act as long-term carbon stores, mitigating the effects of climate change and potentially acting as a source of income for rural economies. However, upland grasslands are sensitive to management decisions, and careful planning is needed to ensure that they continue to provide a range of ecosystem services. Using the longterm grassland experimental plots at Brignant, Wales, management and liming effects on soil organic carbon and related soil parameters under long-term permanent pastures were explored. Results showed that interactions between management and liming could significantly influence carbon storage potential, making a difference of up to 0.45 kg C m- 2 in Hay-cut swards. The greatest reductions were found under pastures that had been cut (rather than grazed) and limed, probably due to a combination of enhanced soil microbial activity, increased root production and a lack of fresh biomass. These results indicate that while the potential to further increase soil organic carbon may be limited, grazing for all or part of the year can reduce losses by providing regular organic matter inputs.

Numerous soil water repellency (SWR) studies have investigated the possible causes of this temporal phenomenon, yet there remains a lack of knowledge on the order of importance of the main driving forces of SWR in the context of changing environmental conditions under grassland ecosystems. To study the separate and combined effects of soil texture, climate, and grassland cover type on inducing or altering SWR, four sites from different climatic and soil regions were selected: Ciavolo (CI, IT), Csolyospalos (CSP, HU), Pwllpeiran (PW, UK), Sekule (SE, SK). The investigated parameters were the extent (determined by repellency indices RI, RIc and RIm) and persistence (determined by water drop penetration time (WDPT) and water repellency cessation time, WRCT) of SWR, as well as field water (S-w) and ethanol (S-e) sorptivity, water sorptivity of hydrophobic soil state (S-wh) water sorptivity of nearly wettable soil state (S-ww) and field hydraulic conductivity (K). Our findings showed an area of land has a greater likelihood of being water repellent if it has a sandy soil texture and/or a high frequency of prolonged drought events. Water infiltration was positively correlated with all the sorptivities (r = 0.32-0.88), but was mostly negatively correlated with RI (r = - 0.54 at CI), WDPT (r = - 0.47 at CI) and WRCT (r =- 0.58 at CI). The importance of natural and synanthropized vegetation covers with regards to SWR was not coherent; moving to regions having coarser texture or moving to drier climatic zones led to higher risk of SWR conditions. Climate change has been predicted to lead to more frequent extreme weather events and prolonged dry periods across Europe, which will most likely increase the extent of SWR-affected areas and increase the role of SWR in water management of grassland ecosystems. Therefore, there is a need to determine SWR risk zones to prevent decreases in soil moisture content, soil fertility, carbon and nitrogen sink potentials, as well as biomass production of the related agro-ecosystems.

Many actions to reduce GHG emissions have wider impacts on health, the economy, and the environment, beyond their role in mitigating climate change. These ancillary impacts can be positive (co-benefits) or negative (conflicts). This article presents the first quantitative review of the wider impacts on health and the environment likely to arise from action to meet the UK's legally-binding carbon budgets. Impacts were assessed for climate measures directed at power generation, energy use in buildings, and industry, transport, and agriculture. The study considered a wide range of health and environmental impacts including air pollution, noise, the upstream impacts of fuel extraction, and the lifestyle benefits of active travel. It was not possible to quantify all impacts, but for those that were monetized the co-benefits of climate action (i.e. excluding climate benefits) significantly outweigh the negative impacts, with a net present value of more than 85 pound billion from 2008 to 2030. Substantial benefits arise from reduced congestion, pollution, noise, and road accidents as a result of avoided journeys. There is also a large health benefit as a result of increased exercise from walking and cycling instead of driving. Awareness of these benefits could strengthen the case for more ambitious climate mitigation action.Policy relevanceThis article demonstrates that actions to mitigate GHG emissions have significant wider benefits for health and the environment. Including these impacts in cost-benefit analysis would strengthen the case for the UK (and similar countries) to set ambitious emissions reduction targets. Understanding co-benefits and trade-offs will also improve coordination across policy areas and cut costs. In addition, co-benefits such as air quality improvements are often immediate and local, whereas climate benefits may occur on a longer timescale and mainly in a distant region, as well as being harder to demonstrate. Dissemination of the benefits, along with better anticipation of trade-offs, could therefore boost public support for climate action.