Storm damage in forests of Central Europe causes severe economic losses and alters these ecosystems significantly. There are many approaches to analyze past damage and to predict the future damage, often relying on data from field surveys. With the current data abundance there is potential in using existing datasets to develop transferable methodologies for modeling storm damage. We hypothesized that the commonly available datasets, with a large spatial extent and addressing a variety of damage-relevant conditions, could create accurate prediction models, especially with variables generated at different spatial resolutions. We created random forest models using four variable groups: topography, vegetation structure, soil and gust speed, for the study site Tharandt Forest, Germany, a typical Norway spruce dominated even-aged forest in temperate Europe. Our models reached a good level of accuracy in predicting damage for the storms Herwart (2017) and Friederike (2018), with areas under the curve of 95.8

Drought and heat events in Europe are becoming increasingly frequent due to human-induced climate change, impacting both human well-being and ecosystem functioning. The intensity and effects of these events vary across the continent, making it crucial for decision-makers to understand spatial variability in drought impacts. Data on drought-related damage are currently dispersed across scientific publications, government reports, and media outlets. This study consolidates data on drought and heat damage in European forests from 2018 to 2022, using Europe-wide datasets including those related to crown defoliation, insect damage, burnt forest areas, and tree cover loss. The data, covering 16 European countries, were analysed across four regions, northern, central, Alpine, and southern, and compared with a reference period from 2010 to 2014. Findings reveal that forests in all zones experienced reduced vitality due to drought and elevated temperatures, with varying severity. Central Europe showed the highest vulnerability, impacting both coniferous and deciduous trees. The southern zone, while affected by tree cover loss, demonstrated greater resilience, likely due to historical drought exposure. The northern zone is experiencing emerging impacts less severely, possibly due to site-adapted boreal species, while the Alpine zone showed minimal impact, suggesting a protective effect of altitude. Key trends include (1) significant tree cover loss in the northern, central, and southern zones; (2) high damage levels despite 2021 being an average year, indicating lasting effects from previous years; (3) notable challenges in the central zone and in Sweden due to bark beetle infestations; and (4) no increase in wildfire severity in southern Europe despite ongoing challenges. Based on this assessment, we conclude that (i) European forests are highly vulnerable to drought and heat, with even resilient ecosystems at risk of severe damage; (ii) tailored strategies are essential to mitigate climate change impacts on European forests, incorporating regional differences in forest damage and resilience; and (iii) effective management requires harmonised data collection and enhanced monitoring to address future challenges comprehensively.

Although variation in effect sizes and predicted values among studies of similar phenomena is inevitable, such variation far exceeds what might be produced by sampling error alone. One possible explanation for variation among results is differences among researchers in the decisions they make regarding statistical analyses. A growing array of studies has explored this analytical variability in different fields and has found substantial variability among results despite analysts having the same data and research question. Many of these studies have been in the social sciences, but one small “many analyst” study found similar variability in ecology. We expanded the scope of this prior work by implementing a large-scale empirical exploration of the variation in effect sizes and model predictions generated by the analytical decisions of different researchers in ecology and evolutionary biology. We used two unpublished datasets, one from evolutionary ecology (blue tit, Cyanistes caeruleus, to compare sibling number and nestling growth) and one from conservation ecology (Eucalyptus, to compare grass cover and tree seedling recruitment). The project leaders recruited 174 analyst teams, comprising 246 analysts, to investigate the answers to prespecified research questions. Analyses conducted by these teams yielded 141 usable effects (compatible with our meta-analyses and with all necessary information provided) for the blue tit dataset, and 85 usable effects for the Eucalyptus dataset. We found substantial heterogeneity among results for both datasets, although the patterns of variation differed between them. For the blue tit analyses, the average effect was convincingly negative, with less growth for nestlings living with more siblings, but there was near continuous variation in effect size from large negative effects to effects near zero, and even effects crossing the traditional threshold of statistical significance in the opposite direction. In contrast, the average relationship between grass cover and Eucalyptus seedling number was only slightly negative and not convincingly different from zero, and most effects ranged from weakly negative to weakly positive, with about a third of effects crossing the traditional threshold of significance in one direction or the other. However, there were also several striking outliers in the Eucalyptus dataset, with effects far from zero. For both datasets, we found substantial variation in the variable selection and random effects structures among analyses, as well as in the ratings of the analytical methods by peer reviewers, but we found no strong relationship between any of these and deviation from the meta-analytic mean. In other words, analyses with results that were far from the mean were no more or less likely to have dissimilar variable sets, use random effects in their models, or receive poor peer reviews than those analyses that found results that were close to the mean. The existence of substantial variability among analysis outcomes raises important questions about how ecologists and evolutionary biologists should interpret published results, and how they should conduct analyses in the future.

Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events but rather show a multivariate character, known as compound events. We investigate the interactions between extreme weather events, their characteristics, and changes in their intensity and frequency, as well as uncertainties in the past, present, and future. We also explore their impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Germany and central Europe. This contribution highlights several case studies with special focus on 2018, a year marked by an exceptional sequence of compound events across large parts of Europe, resulting in severe impacts on human lives, ecosystems, and infrastructure. We provide new insights into the drivers of spatially and temporally compound events, such as heat and drought, and heavy precipitation combined with extreme winds, and their adverse effects on ecosystems and society, using large-scale atmospheric patterns. We also examine the interannual influence of droughts on surface water and the impact of water scarcity and heatwaves on agriculture and forests. We assess projected changes in compound events at different current and future global surface temperature levels, demonstrating the need for improved quantification of future extreme events to support adaptation planning. Finally, we address research gaps and future directions, stressing the importance of defining composite events primarily in terms of their impacts prior to their statistical characterisation.

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Abstract. The European continent is regularly affected by a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events, but rather show a multivariate character, the so-called compound events. Within the scope of the interdisciplinary project climXtreme (https://climxtreme.net/), we investigate the interplay of extreme weather events, their characteristics and changes, intensity, frequency and uncertainties in the past, present and future and associated impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Germany and Central Europe. This contribution presents several case studies with special emphasis on the calendar year of 2018, which is of particular interest given the exceptional sequence of different compound events across large parts of Europe, with devastating impacts on human lives, ecosystems and infrastructure. We provide new evidence on drivers of spatially and temporally compound events (heat and drought; heavy precipitation in combination with extreme winds) with adverse impacts on ecosystems and society using large-scale atmospheric patterns. We shed light on the interannual influence of droughts on surface water and the impact of water scarcity and heatwaves on agriculture and forests. We assessed projected changes in compound events at different current and future global surface temperature levels, demonstrating the importance of better quantifying the likelihood of future extreme events for adaptation planning. Finally, we addressed research needs and future pathways, emphasising the need to define composite events primarily in terms of their impacts prior to their statistical characterisation.

Supplementary Figure (SOM) Figure S1: (a) Surface weather analysis produced by The Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) at 1200 UTC on 18 January 2018, when windstorm Friederike passed through Germany.(b) As (a) but on 3 January 2018 for windstorm Burglind.Charts were downloaded from Wetter3.de (n.d).(c) Mean sea level pressure (thick contours; increasing from 960 hPa with 5 hPa intervals) at 1200 UTC on 3 5 January 2018 (location of Burglind shown by the star) and maximum precipitation intensity (shaded) during 6 hours before and after (black circles) based on the ERA5 reanalysis.The corresponding region of this zoom-in view in the weather chart is indicated by the thick black lines in (a) & (b).(d) As b, but for the wind gust at 10 m height (shaded).

Wind and windstorms cause severe damage to natural and human-made environments. Thus, wind-related risk assessment is vital for the preparation and mitigation of calamities. However, the cascade of events leading to damage depends on many factors that are environment-specific and the available methods to address wind-related damage often require sophisticated analysis and specialization. Fortunately, simple indices and thresholds are as effective as complex mechanistic models for many applications. Nonetheless, the multitude of indices and thresholds available requires a careful selection process according to the target sector. Here, we first provide a basic background on wind and storm formation and characteristics, followed by a comprehensive collection of both indices and thresholds that can be used to predict the occurrence and magnitude of wind and storm damage. We focused on five key sectors: forests, urban areas, transport, agriculture and wind-based energy production. For each sector we described indices and thresholds relating to physical properties such as topography and land cover but also to economic aspects (e.g. disruptions in transportation or energy production). In the face of increased climatic variability, the promotion of more effective analysis of wind and storm damage could reduce the impact on society and the environment.

Abstract. The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, and the socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. The heatwave first affected Scandinavia in mid-July and shifted towards central Europe in late July, while Iberia was primarily affected in early August. The atmospheric circulation was characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over Europe, in combination with a positive summer North Atlantic Oscillation and a double jet stream configuration before the initiation of the heatwave. In terms of possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, the Eurasian double-jet structure and a tripolar sea surface temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic were already identified in spring. While in the early stages over Scandinavia the air masses at mid and upper levels were often of a remote, maritime origin, at later stages over Iberia the air masses primarily had a local-to-regional origin. The drought affected Germany the most, starting with warmer than average conditions in spring, associated with enhanced latent heat release that initiated a severe depletion of soil moisture. During summer, a continued precipitation deficit exacerbated the problem, leading to hydrological and agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment of the heatwave in Germany showed that such events of prolonged heat have become more likely due to anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, an extreme summer such as that of 2018 is expected to occur every 2 out of 3 years in Europe in a +1.5 ∘C warmer world and virtually every single year in a +2 ∘C warmer world. With such large-scale and impactful extreme events becoming more frequent and intense under anthropogenic climate change, comprehensive and multi-faceted studies like the one presented here quantify the multitude of their effects and provide valuable information as a basis for adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Abstract. Drought and heat events are becoming more frequent in Europe due to human-induced climate change, affecting many aspects of human well-being and ecosystem functioning. However, the intensity of these drought and heat events is not spatially and temporally uniform. Understanding the spatial variability of drought impacts is important information for decision makers, supporting both planning and preparations to cope with the changing climatic conditions. Currently, data relating to the damage caused by extended drought episodes is scattered across languages and sources such as scientific publications, governmental reports and the media. In this review paper, we compiled data of damages caused by the drought and heat of 2018 until 2022 in forest ecosystems and relate it to large European data sets, providing support for decision making both on the regional and European levels. We partitioned data from 16 European countries to the following regions: Northern, Central, Alpine, and South. We focused on drought and heat damage to forests, and categorized them as (1) physiological (2) pest, and (3) fire damage. We were able to identify the following key trends: (1) Relative defoliation rates of broadleaves is higher than of conifers in every country with the exception of Czech Republic (2) the incidence of wood destroyed by insects is extremely high in Central Europe and Sweden (3) Although forest fires can be related to heat and drought, they are superimposed by other anthropogenic influences (4) In this period (2018–2022), forests in central Europe are particularly affected, while forests in the Northern and Alpine zones are less affected, and adaptations to heat and drought can still be observed in the Southern zone. (5) Although in several regions 2021 was an average year still high levels of damages were observed indicating strong legacy effects of 2018–2020. We note that the inventory should be continuously updated as new data appear.

Quality of water balance estimations are strongly dependent on the precipitation input. The key limitation here is typically a lack of spatial representation in precipitation data. Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) using radar is recognized as capable to significantly enhance the spatial representation of precipitation compared to conventional rain gauge-based methods by calibrating radar pixels with surrounding rain gauges. However, the measured precipitation is often underestimated due to wind drift or funnel evaporation, particularly in mountainous areas. Thus, a post-correction is required before applying radar precipitation in water balance models. Here, we applied the Richter correction for the first time to a radar-based QPE, to model the water balance in ten catchments in Saxony, Germany. The hydrological responses for the period 2001–2017 from the model were validated with discharge observations. The results show that radar data application yielded reliable simulations of water balance (KGE = 0.53 and 0.70 at daily and monthly resolutions, respectively). However, a simple compensation such as the Richter method to conventional precipitation should be used with caution. This study shows that radar-based precipitation has immense potential to advance quality of the precipitation input to distributed hydrologic models not only for flood events but also for climatological analyses.

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change have been explored in many regions worldwide. While continued drying and warming may alter process rates and deteriorate the state and performance of ecosystems, it could also lead to more fundamental changes in the mechanisms governing ecosystem functioning. Here we argue that climate change will induce unprecedented shifts in these mechanisms in historically wetter climatic zones, towards mechanisms currently prevalent in dry regions, which we refer to as 'dryland mechanisms'. We discuss 12 dryland mechanisms affecting multiple processes of ecosystem functioning, including vegetation development, water flow, energy budget, carbon and nutrient cycling, plant production and organic matter decomposition. We then examine mostly rare examples of the operation of these mechanisms in non-dryland regions where they have been considered irrelevant at present. Current and future climate trends could force microclimatic conditions across thresholds and lead to the emergence of dryland mechanisms and their increasing control over ecosystem functioning in many biomes on Earth. In drylands, there are unique mechanisms that influence multiple ecosystem processes. In this Perspective, the authors identify these dryland mechanisms and show that they could become more important in non-dryland regions or areas that will become drier in the future.

Abstract. Wind and windstorms cause severe damage to natural and human-made environments. Thus, wind-related risk assessment is vital for the preparation and mitigation of calamities. However, the cascade of events leading to damage depends on many factors that are environment-specific and the available methods to address wind-related damage often require sophisticated analysis and specialization. Fortunately, simple indices and thresholds are as effective as complex mechanistic models for many applications. Nonetheless, the multitude of indices and thresholds available requires a careful selection process according to the target environment. Here, we first provide a basic background on wind and storm formation and characteristics, followed by a comprehensive collection of both indices and thresholds that can be used to predict the occurrence and magnitude of wind and storm damage. We focused on five key environments: forests, urban, transport, agriculture, and wind-based energy production. For each environment we described indices and thresholds relating to physical properties such as topography and land cover but also to economic aspects (e.g. disruptions in transportation or energy production). In the face of increased climatic variability, the promotion of more effective analysis of wind and storm damage could reduce the impact on society and the environment.

Decomposition of dead organic matter is a fundamental process in the carbon cycle and is essential for the sustainment of biomass production in terrestrial ecosystems. Climatic factors are key drivers of decay of plant residues (litter), and, thus, changing those factors might affect litter decomposition. In this chapter, we assess the potential impact of climate change on litter decomposition in Mediterranean pine forests by direct climatic influences and by indirect impacts through changes in forest structure, composition and microclimate. We also present important insights from litter decomposition in Mediterranean pine forests that could be relevant to more mesic forests. Models project reductions in precipitation amounts for Mediterranean-type climate zones, and water deficits are expected to grow in all Mediterranean regions because of rising temperatures. These conditions can lead to decreased canopy densities, either by tree mortality and defoliation, or by adaptive management decisions. Decreased water availability reduces the rates of rain-based microbial degradation of plant litter, while increasing the openness of canopies, and thus enhancing abiotic decay by photochemical and thermal degradation, and microbial degradation driven by non-rainfall water sources (air humidity, dew, fog). We hypothesize that abiotic and humidity-enhanced biotic degradation compensates for the decrease in classic rain-driven microbial degradation in the hotter and drier, but not in the cooler and moister Mediterranean pine forests. The Mediterranean-type climate is projected to expand into more mesic regions, bringing abiotic and humidity-enhanced biotic mechanisms of decay into play in some of today’s temperate forests.

Fog deposition depends strongly on location and orographic setting. Even if the absolute amount can be small at some locations, it could play a decisive role. This is also true for Germany. In the lowlands, the annual amount of fog precipitation is in the range of a few mm per year, in the higher altitudes of the low mountain ranges a few hundred mm per year. In this article, we estimated the fog deposition based on the REAL-Fog model for Germany at daily time steps and one kilometre spatial resolution for a 70-year period for the years 1949 to 2018. These results were compared with another fog deposition modelling approach, station measurements and water balance modelling for different catchments in our study region. Comparing the results gives quite an interesting insight and outlook to the challenges to face in the future. The gridded data of the daily sum of the fog deposition we made available via HydroShare repository.

Plant litter decomposition in drylands is not well understood, and even less is known about decay of the abundant standing dead residues. Here, we followed decomposition of standing and surface litter, and assessed the underlying drivers and mechanisms.

This study investigated the impact of canopy cover and seasonality on litter decay in Mediterranean pine forests to enhance climate predictions.

Decomposition of organic matter in semi-arid ecosystems is a key component of the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. The well-known inaccuracies in predicting litter decay in water-limited regions were lessened by considering solar radiation as an abiotic decay driver of photodegradation. Moreover, exposure to high solar irradiance in dry periods often led to massive facilitation of litter decay in subsequent wet periods (photoacceleration), though in many studies this effect was absent. Recently, water vapour and dew were identified as modulators enabling substantial microbial degradation during rainless periods. Here, we investigated, (1) whether the activity of micro-organisms modifies litter traits, such as litter quality and microbial community in dry periods, consequently altering the loss of litter mass and nitrogen (N) in wet periods, and (2) whether it can co-occur with photoacceleration. By successively introducing litter to the field at the beginning and the end of the dry season, we found that microbial activity during the dry season affected litter mass and N loss during the wet season. Low microbial activity in the dry season led to inhibition of mass loss in the wet season, while high microbial activity led to facilitation of mass loss. Microbial activity during the dry season also caused strong inhibition of N loss from litter during the wet season, likely by enhancing the dry-season N loss. A microclimate manipulation experiment using radiation filters showed that microbial activity and exposure to solar radiation jointly modified the litter during the dry season and affected subsequent decay in the wet season. Knowledge of biotic and abiotic modifications of litter during dry periods and their implication for wet periods enhances our understanding of litter decay in semi-arid regions. Furthermore, it can improve biogeochemical model predictions of C and N cycling in drylands and in the many regions that are projected to experience a drier climate during the coming decades.

The arid and semi-arid drylands of the world are increasingly recognized for their role in the terrestrial net carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake, which depends largely on plant litter decomposition and the subsequent release of CO2 back to the atmosphere. Observed decomposition rates in drylands are higher than predictions by biogeochemical models, which are traditionally based on microbial (biotic) degradation enabled by precipitation as the main mechanism of litter decomposition. Consequently, recent research in drylands has focused on abiotic mechanisms, mainly photochemical and thermal degradation, but they only partly explain litter decomposition under dry conditions, suggesting the operation of an additional mechanism. Here we show that in the absence of precipitation, absorption of dew and water vapor by litter in the field enables microbial degradation at night. By experimentally manipulating solar irradiance and nighttime air humidity, we estimated that most of the litter CO2 efflux and decay occurring in the dry season was due to nighttime microbial degradation, with considerable additional contributions from photochemical and thermal degradation during the daytime. In a complementary study, at three sites across the Mediterranean Basin, litter CO2 efflux was largely explained by litter moisture driving microbial degradation and ultraviolet radiation driving photodegradation. We further observed mutual enhancement of microbial activity and photodegradation at a daily scale. Identifying the interplay of decay mechanisms enhances our understanding of carbon turnover in drylands, which should improve the predictions of the long-term trend of global carbon sequestration.