The commercial Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) fishery in Oregon and Washington (USA) is one of the most valuable fisheries in the region, but it experiences high interannual variability. These fluctuations have been attributed to environmental drivers on seasonal and annual timescales. In this study, researchers and state and tribal fisheries managers develop a statistical model for Dungeness crab catch per unit effort (CPUE) to help inform dynamic management decisions in Oregon and Washington. Fishing observations were matched to seasonally forecast and lagged ocean conditions from J-SCOPE, a regional forecast system (http://www.nanoos.org/products/j-scope/). Inclusion of dynamic and lagged ocean conditions improved model skill compared to simpler models, and the best model captured intraseasonal trends and interannual variability in catch rates, and spatial catch patterns. We also found that model skill relied on fishing behaviour, which varies interannually, highlighting the need for advanced fishing behaviour modelling to reduce uncertainty. The relationships between catch rates and ocean conditions may help elucidate environmental influences of catch variability. Forecast products were co-designed with managers to meet their needs for key decision points. Our results illustrate a seasonal forecasting approach for management of other highly productive, but also dynamic, invertebrates that increasingly contribute to global fisheries yield.

The state of Washington’s Olympic coast is home to four US coastal treaty tribes who have relied on the region’s rich marine resources since time immemorial. The region is characterized by large dynamic ranges of physical and biogeochemical oceanographic parameters, particularly during the upwelling season (April–September). Here, we present novel estimates of ocean acidification metrics—pH and calcium carbonate saturation states (Ω)—representing pre-industrial, present-day (using 2010 as the index year), and near-future (2030) conditions. We compare these new estimates of past, present, and near-future ocean acidification status and seasonality to published end-of-century (2100) ocean acidification projections under a high CO2 emissions scenario, and also to sensitivity information for Dungeness crab, a regionally important subsistence and commercial fishery species projected to show strong declines in fisheries yields and revenues later this century.

Historical (hindcast) and September initialized forecast fields from the J-SCOPE system (more information here: https://www.nanoos.org/products/j-scope/). The historical fields are annual averages while the forecasts are averaged monthly. The fields here were used to generate the CPUE models described in Norton et al. (2023). Abstract from the paper: The commercial Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) fishery in Oregon and Washington (USA) is one of the most valuable fisheries in the region, but it experiences high interannual variability. These fluctuations have been attributed to environmental drivers on seasonal and annual timescales. In this study, researchers and state and tribal fisheries managers develop a statistical model for Dungeness crab catch per unit effort (CPUE) to help inform dynamic management decisions in Oregon and Washington. Fishing observations were matched to seasonally forecast and lagged ocean conditions from J-SCOPE, a regional forecast system (http://www.nanoos.org/products/j-scope/). Inclusion of dynamic and lagged ocean conditions improved model skill compared to simpler models, and the best model captured intraseasonal trends and interannual variability in catch rates, and spatial catch patterns. We also found that model skill relied on fishing behaviour, which varies interannually, highlighting the need for advanced fishing behaviour modelling to reduce uncertainty. The relationships between catch rates and ocean conditions may help elucidate environmental influences of catch variability. Forecast products were co-designed with managers to meet their needs for key decision points. Our results illustrate a seasonal forecasting approach for management of other highly productive, but also dynamic, invertebrates that increasingly contribute to global fisheries yield.

The Olympic Coast of Washington is home to four Coastal Treaty Tribes who have relied on the region's rich marine resources since time immemorial. The region is characterized by large dynamic ranges of physical and biogeochemical oceanographic parameters, particularly during the upwelling season (April-September). Here, we present novel estimates of ocean acidification metrics-pH and calcium carbonate saturation states (O)-representing pre-industrial, present-day (using 2010 as the index year), and near-future (2030) conditions. We compare these new estimates of past, present, and near-future ocean acidification status and seasonality to published end-of-century (2100) ocean acidification projections under a high CO2 emissions scenario, and also to sensitivity information for Dungeness crab, a regionally important subsistence and commercial fishery species projected to show strong declines in fisher-

In the Pacific Northwest, blooms of the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia (PN) sometimes produce domoic acid, a neurotoxin that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning, leading to a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) event. The Pacific Northwest (PNW) HAB Bulletin project, a partnership between academic, government, and tribal stakeholders, uses a combination of beach and offshore monitoring data and ocean forecast modeling to better understand the formation, evolution, and transport of HABs in this region. This project produces periodic Bulletins to inform local stakeholders of current and forecasted conditions. The goal of this study was to help improve how the forecast model is used in the Bulletin's preparation through a retrospective particle-tracking experiment. Using past observations of beach PN cell counts, events were identified that likely originated in the Juan de Fuca eddy, a known PN hotspot, and then particle tracks were used in the model to simulate these events. A variety of "beaching definitions" were tested, based on both water depth and distance offshore, to define when a particle in the model was close enough to the coast that it was likely to correspond to cells appearing in the intertidal zone and in shellfish diets, as well as a variety of observed PN cell thresholds to determine what cell count should be used to describe an event that would warrant further action. The skill of these criteria was assessed by determining the fraction of true positives, true negatives, false positives, and false negatives within the model in comparison with observations, as well as a variety of derived model performance metrics. This analysis suggested that for our stakeholders' purposes, the most useful beaching definition is the 30 m isobath and the most useful PN cell threshold for coincident field-based sample PN density estimates is 10,000 PN cells/L. Lastly, the performance of a medium-resolution (1.5 km horizontal resolution) version of the model was compared with that of a high-resolution (0.5 km horizontal resolution) version, the latter currently used in forecasting for the PNW HAB Bulletin project. This analysis includes a direct comparison of the two model resolutions for one overlapping year (2017). These results suggested that a narrower, more realistic beaching definition is most useful in a high-resolution model, while a wider beaching definition is more appropriate in a lower resolution model like the medium-resolution version used in this analysis. Overall, this analysis demonstrated the importance of incorporating stakeholder needs into the statistical approach in order to generate the most effective decision-support information from oceanographic modeling.

Domoic acid (DA) is a neurotoxin that is naturally produced by phytoplankton and accumulates in seafood during harmful algal blooms. As the prevalence of DA increases in the marine environment, there is a critical need to identify seafood consumers at risk of DA poisoning. DA exposure was estimated in recreational razor clam (Siliqua patula) harvesters to determine if exposures above current regulatory guidelines occur and/or if harvesters are chronically exposed to low levels of DA. Human consumption rates of razor clams were determined by distributing 1523 surveys to recreational razor clam harvesters in spring 2015 and winter 2016, in Washington, USA. These consumption rate data were combined with DA measurements in razor clams, collected by a state monitoring program, to estimate human DA exposure. Approximately 7% of total acute exposures calculated (including the same individuals at different times) exceeded the current regulatory reference dose (0.075mgDA·kgbodyweight-1·d-1) due to higher than previously reported consumption rates, lower bodyweights, and/or by consumption of clams at the upper range of legal DA levels (maximum 20mg·kg-1 wet weight for whole tissue). Three percent of survey respondents were potentially at risk of chronic DA exposure by consuming a minimum of 15 clams per month for at 12 consecutive months. These insights into DA consumption will provide an additional tool for razor clam fishery management.