Numerical modeling was employed to study the performance of thermal conductive heating (TCH) in fractured shale under a variety of hydrogeological conditions. Model results show that groundwater flow in fractures does not significantly affect the minimum treatment zone temperature, except near the beginning of heating or when groundwater influx is high. However, fracture and rock matrix properties can significantly influence the time necessary to remove all liquid water (i.e., reach superheated steam conditions) in the treatment area. Low matrix permeability, high matrix porosity, and wide fracture spacing can contribute to boiling point elevation in the rock matrix. Consequently, knowledge of these properties is important for the estimation of treatment times. Because of the variability in boiling point throughout a fractured rock treatment zone and the absence of a well‐defined constant temperature boiling plateau in the rock matrix, it may be difficult to monitor the progress of thermal treatment using temperature measurements alone.

A two-dimensional semi-analytical heat transfer solution is developed and a parameter sensitivity analysis performed to determine the relative importance of rock material properties (density, thermal conductivity and heat capacity) and hydrogeological properties (hydraulic gradient, fracture aperture, fracture spacing) on the ability to heat fractured rock using thermal conductive heating (TCH). The solution is developed using a Green’s function approach in which an integral equation is constructed for the temperature in the fracture. Subsurface temperature distributions are far more sensitive to hydrogeological properties than material properties. The bulk ground water influx (q) can provide a good estimate of the extent of influx cooling when influx is low to moderate, allowing the prediction of temperatures during heating without specific knowledge of the aperture and spacing of fractures. Target temperatures may not be reached or may be significantly delayed when the groundwater influx is large.