OBJECTIVES:It is vital that horizon scanning organizations can capture and disseminate intelligence on new and repurposed medicines in clinical development. To our knowledge, there are no standardized classification systems to capture this intelligence. This study aims to create a novel classification system to allow new and repurposed medicines horizon scanning intelligence to be disseminated to healthcare organizations. METHODS:A multidisciplinary working group undertook literature searching and an iterative, three-stage piloting process to build consensus on a classification system. Supplementary data collection was carried out to facilitate the implementation and validation of the system on the National Institute of Health and Care Research (NIHR) Innovation Observatory (IO)'s horizon scanning database, the Medicines Innovation Database (MInD). RESULTS:Our piloting process highlighted important issues such as the patency and regulatory approval status of individual medicines and how combination therapies interact with these characteristics. We created a classification system with six values (New Technology, Repurposed Technology (Off-patent/Generic), Repurposed Technology (On-patent/Branded), Repurposed Technology (Never commercialised), New + Repurposed Technology (Combinations-only), Repurposed Technology (Combinations-only)) that account for these characteristics to provide novel horizon scanning insights. We validated our system through application to over 20,000 technology records on the MInD. CONCLUSIONS:Our system provides the opportunity to deliver concise yet informative intelligence to healthcare organizations and those studying the clinical development landscape of medicines. Inbuilt flexibility and the use of publicly available data sources ensure that it can be utilized by all, regardless of location or resource availability.

ObjectivesHorizon scanning for health technology appraisal (HTA) in England involves topic notification to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) via technology briefings. This activity is undertaken by the Innovation Observatory with submission timelines designed to ensure that HTA decisions align with regulatory approval time. In this paper, we aimed to track and assess the progression and current status of the topics notified for HTA and provide a descriptive analysis of these topics.MethodsTechnology briefings were mapped from submission to NICE technology appraisal/highly specialized technologies recommendations from April 2017 until October 2021. This was done using a combination of searches on Google and NICE website, searching a downloadable spreadsheet containing NICE topic selection decisions, and querying NICE Topic Selection team. Analysis was undertaken regarding type of indications and interventions of submitted topics and published guidance.ResultsSix-hundred and ninety-three topics entered the NICE scoping process, of which 94 percent were prioritized. As of November 2021, approximately 39 percent of prioritized topics were in scoping/in progress, 31 percent were proposed/completed, 20 percent were suspended/terminated, and 4 percent were referred back to Innovation Observatory (IO) for further monitoring.ConclusionsOur work demonstrates that horizon scanning for HTA is a complex and time-intensive process. Timelines and progress through HTA is challenging due to the growing number of innovative medicines, significant uncertainties, and limited transparency in clinical development and regulatory pathways. A better understanding of clinical trials and regulatory requirements may help eliminate some of this uncertainty and improve timely HTA.

IntroductionThe National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Innovation Observatory (IO) national horizon scanning research centre, has a remit to notify its stakeholders, including the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), about innovative interventions; including biosimilar medicines in the pipeline. Biosimilar medicines bypass many developmental steps, making them substantially cheaper to manufacture for providers, which increases market availability and improves treatment access for patients.MethodsSince 2017, the NIHR IO has monitored biosimilars in clinical development that align to the NICE health technology assessment remit. The data set explored was exported from our internal medicines innovation database - MInD.Data sets were created that included information on the characteristics of biosimilars and their associated clinical trials. Analyses and visualization creation were carried out using Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Power BI.ResultsA total of 100 unique biosimilar medicines in 136 clinical trials were included in the MInD since April 2017. Of these, 44 percent of biosimilars are currently EMA-approved (Nov 2021). Adalimumab was the reference medicine with the most unique biosimilars identified (12%). Seventy-two percent of the biosimilars in MInD were indicated for non-oncology conditions, twenty percent for oncology condition and eight percent for both.There were 46 biosimilars unapproved, which were in active development. Of these biosimilars 17.4 percent are indicated for an oncology condition, 78.3 percent for non-oncology conditions, and 4.3 percent for biosimilars for both. Aflibercept was the reference product with the most (eight) biosimilars in active development.There were 56 individual clinical trials in the MInD that list a biosimilar in development. For 26 trials, the primary completion date (PCD) was prior to 2021, whilst 28 trials listed a PCD post-2021, and 2 PCD’s were unavailableConclusionsOur analysis identified high levels of active clinical development for biosimilars. The majority of biosimilars being developed are indicated for non-oncology conditions, with many in trials due to readout in the near future. Early identification, monitoring and reporting of biosimilars allows for expedited patient access and benefits, including cost-savings for health services.This study is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) [(HSRIC-2016-10009)/Innovation Observatory].

IntroductionWhile various criteria exist to define or categorize innovative medicines as new or repurposed, to our knowledge there are no standardized systems that sufficiently capture the range of pipeline products. The National Institute for Health and Care Research Innovation Observatory (NIHR IO) undertakes routine horizon scanning to support health technology assessment (HTA) in England and maintains a comprehensive Medicines Innovation Database (MInD). The aim of this project is to develop a ‘technology type’ (new versus repurposed) classification system for application within the MInD and to provide a high-level analysis of the emergent data.MethodsWe reviewed gray literature, regulatory websites, and drug repositories to identify existing ‘technology type’ classification criteria. Preliminary definitions and classifications for use on the MInD were discussed, refined, and agreed by consensus. Innovative medicines on the MInD were classified as either new or repurposed based on their regulatory approval status (Marketing Authorization) using data from the electronic medicines compendium. For repurposed medicines, further classification was undertaken using abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) data from the FDA Orange Book to identify generic medicines (patency and exclusivity status). We combined a range of semi-automated and manually derived data during this process.ResultsSix technology types were identified and applied to the MInD: (i) new technology; (ii) repurposed technology (on-patent/branded); (iii) repurposed drug (off-patent/generic); (iv) repurposed technology (never commercialized); (v) new and repurposed technology (combinations); and (vi) repurposed technology (combinations). Preliminary analysis of a subset of MInD records identified in July 2021 (n = 113) found mainly 52 percent new technologies, 27 percent new and repurposed technologies (combinations) and 14 percent repurposed technology (never commercialized). Further analysis of approximately 7000 MInD records are ongoing and will report temporal trends, regulatory status, and key challenges.ConclusionsOur novel evidence-based approach to developing classifications for technology types of innovative medicines resulted in six mutually exclusive states that can be applied to a larger dataset. We believe this offers HTA stakeholders a mechanism to gain valuable insights into the innovation trends, gaps, and areas of unmet need.

The COVID-19 pandemic has driven an unprecedented level of global activity in drug discovery and clinical development for effective therapeutics targeting the coronavirus disease. There are currently 744 therapeutics being tested in 2879 clinical trials globally. Almost 90% of these clinical trials are focused on monotherapies. Combination therapies are the mainstay of antiviral therapeutics to increase the potency of the individual compounds and to combat the rapid evolution of resistance, although combination therapies have inherently complex clinical and regulatory development challenges. Increased understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 lifecycle and COVID-19 pathology provides a scientific rationale for evaluating the effectiveness of different combinations. In this paper, we provide an overview of the current clinical trial landscape for combination therapeutics targeting COVID-19 through weekly scanning of national and international clinical trial registries. Our analysis delves specifically into dual combination therapies in what can be defined as "pivotal clinical trials" (active, randomised, controlled and at least phase II), with a focus on new and repurposed therapeutic candidates that have shown positive signals and/or been granted authorisation for emergency use based on positive efficacy and safety data.

Introduction The National Institute for Health and Care Research Innovation Observatory (IO) is a horizon scanning centre based at Newcastle University, United Kingdom. The IO provides horizon scanning intelligence on new and innovative medicinal products to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) as technology briefing notifications (TBNs). We present an analysis of how TBNs produced between April 2017 and October 2021 feed into the NICE HTA process and used to inform their Technology Appraisal (TA) programme. Methods TBNs were mapped to relevant published NICE TA guidance and time from horizon scanning identification to NICE recommendation was studied. For mapping technologies undergoing appraisal, provisional guidance-in-development (GID) identification numbers (IDs) were used. For technologies that had not reached the NICE scoping stage yet, the NICE Topic Selection decision and ID was used. Results Six hundred and ninety-three TBNs were submitted to NICE between April 2017 and October 2021; 653 were prioritised for TA. Of those, eleven percent mapped to a published NICE TA guidance; forty-three percent to a GID, twenty-two percent were undergoing consultation, and three percent were not traced. Further twenty-one percent mapped to a suspended or terminated TA. Reasons for this included HTA timeliness, regulatory issues or companies unwilling to submit evidence to NICE. Time from technology identification to TA guidance publication ranged from twenty-two to 115 months. The average time from TBN submission to NICE recommendation was thirty months. Conclusions Timely notification is key in achieving TA recommendation aligned with market authorization but not the only influencing factor. After issuing a TBN, the NICE appraisal process might be terminated, suspended or withdrawn due to unforeseen factors. Horizon scanning plays a key role triggering the NICE TA process; understanding factors that influence the successful TA completion would streamline processes and find efficiencies.

The COVID-19 pandemic has driven an unprecedented level of global activity in drug discovery and clinical development for effective therapeutics targeting the coronavirus disease. There are currently 744 therapeutics being tested in 2879 clinical trials globally. Almost 90% of these clinical trials are focused on monotherapies. Combination therapies are the mainstay of antiviral therapeutics to increase the potency of the individual compounds and to combat the rapid evolution of resistance, although combination therapies have inherently complex clinical and regulatory development challenges. Increased understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 lifecycle and COVID-19 pathology provides a scientific rationale for evaluating the effectiveness of different combinations. In this paper, we provide an overview of the current clinical trial landscape for combination therapeutics targeting COVID-19 through weekly scanning of national and international clinical trial registries. Our analysis delves specifically into dual combination therapies in what can be defined as "pivotal clinical trials" (active, randomised, controlled and at least phase II), with a focus on new and repurposed therapeutic candidates that have shown positive signals and/or been granted authorisation for emergency use based on positive efficacy and safety data.

Introduction The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Innovation Observatory (NIHRIO) is the national Horizon Scanning (HS) organization in England, and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) is its key health technology assessment (HTA) stakeholder. NIHRIO has a remit to notify NICE of innovative technologies with a time horizon of three years prior to regulatory approval in the European Union (EU)/United Kingdom (UK). The notification process produces an initial ‘filtration form’ followed by a ‘technology briefing’ produced 17–20 months prior to licence for those technologies that NICE will consider for appraisal. Since April 2017, NIHRIO has produced ~400 technology briefings. We present an analysis of how this has fed into the NICE HTA process so far. Methods The analysis mapped NIHRIO's technology briefings (April 2017 – June 2020) with relevant NICE technology appraisal/highly specialized technologies (TA/HST) guidance during the time period. The analysis followed the timeline of technologies from identification during the horizon scanning process to filtration to briefing submission to NICE and entering the TA/HST process to outcome/recommendation given by NICE. Results Until June 2020, 496 technology briefings entered the NICE TA/HST scoping process. Forty per cent are in progress, four per cent have had a TA/HST recommendation and three per cent that entered the NICE TA/HST scoping process did not complete it. On average it took less time from briefing submission to NICE recommendation for cancer indications. The time from discovery to NICE recommendation ranged from 115 months to 22 months. Conclusions HS for TA/HST is a lengthy process from identification to final recommendation and there is considerable variation in time duration from identification to briefing submission to NICE recommendation. Average time taken from briefing submission to NICE recommendation is shorter for cancer indications and repurposed medicines. A full TA/HST may not be recommended for all technology briefings, rather they may update existing guidance or find different routes of evaluation. Technologies that enter the TA/HST scoping process might be terminated, suspended or discontinued for several reasons which may include lack of company engagement, change in development or regulatory plans by the company. Timely notification is key in achieving TA/HST recommendation at the time of market authorization but not the only influencing factor.

IntroductionAdvanced Therapy Medicinal Products (ATMPs) are innovative biologics (gene, cells and tissue-based products) with the potential to treat diseases with significant unmet clinical need. ATMPs pose distinct regulatory, health technology assessment (HTA) and patient access challenges, hence early identification and prioritization of ATMPs is now recognized as a key concern in England. The National Institute for Health Research Innovation Observatory (NIHRIO) uses a robust methodology to identify and monitor health technologies, including ATMPs that meet the remit of key HTA stakeholders in England. This analysis provides a global overview of the current ATMPs pipeline to administer useful insights for policymakers, funders and innovators.MethodsNIHRIO's database tracks pharmaceuticals from phase I/II onwards, but this analysis focuses on late-stage development. The database (N > 12,000 records) was filtered to identify potential ATMPs using a predefined criteria based on the European Medicine's Agency's classification. Each record is categorized by stage: ‘Active’, (with an estimated three years to European licence); ‘Monitoring’ (in development with no licence date); and ‘Finished’, (output produced/discontinued and no longer tracked). Subsequently, records in ‘Active’ and ‘Monitoring’ were examined further.ResultsAnalysis identified 636 ATMPs: five percent ‘Active’, 40 percent ‘Monitoring’ and 55 percent ‘Finished’. ATMPs in the Active/Monitoring stages included: gene therapies (52%), somatic cells (43%) and tissue-engineered products (5%). Of these, 40 percent were oncological with the majority targeting hematological cancers (lymphomas). Prevalent non-oncology areas included musculoskeletal (10%) and ophthalmology (8%). Over one-third of trials were phase IIs, with almost half of all trials were based in the US.ConclusionsThe overarching findings here indicate increasing development of the ATMP pipeline towards indications with significant unmet clinical need. In oncology, the high prevalence of hematological ATMPs is largely due to recent chimeric antigen receptor T cells (CAR-T) innovation. In non-oncology areas, ATMP development is increasing due to advances in regenerative medicine. With a significant number of ATMPs projected to be licenced within three years, and many more in active late-stage trials, HTA bodies and health systems are challenged to prepare for the entry of these innovative therapies.