This study contributes to the growing literature that explores the influence of environmental policy on skill-biased employment across occupational groups. Specifically, we examine the causal effect of the revised Environmental Policy Stringency Index (EPS) and its components on skill-biased employment, focusing on occupations such as managers, professionals, technicians, and manual workers across 21 European economies from 2008 to 2020. Using the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), we find that stringent environmental policies affect employment shares across different occupational categories. Skilled workers tend to benefit more from such policies, with a notable increase in the employment share of professionals across all policy measures and more heterogeneous effects among technicians and managers. In contrast, manual workers are generally adversely affected by environmental policies. These asymmetric effects on occupations exacerbate labour market inequalities, including disparities in employment levels and potential earnings.

We present novel evidence on the motherhood penalty in female employment, investigating its evolution over time and the role of family policy in mitigating this negative effect. Using a dynamic framework, we analyze seven European countries from 2003 to 2020, taking into account the potential endogeneity of fertility decisions. We find that childbirth affects female employment with different intensities across countries. Such an effect strengthens over time and persists as children grow up in most countries. Higher spending on family policies is associated with higher employment rates among new mothers. Disentangling cash and in-kind transfers, we find that the cash benefits have a slightly negative effect, while in-kind support is positive. However, the mere distinction may be insufficient for designing effective family policies, as the impact of spending interacts with multiple social and institutional factors, including gender equality in caring activities and inclusive labor markets.

PurposeThis paper investigates the temporary or persistent nature of low-pay work in Europe. The evolution over time of low-pay state dependence is explored by considering relevant subperiods. The role of institutional factors is also examined.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis is based on longitudinal sections of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey covering the 2003-2020 period. The authors adopt a dynamic framework to characterize the possible transitory or permanent nature of low-paying jobs. To better identify mobility and persistence, they consider the entire spectrum of labor market outcomes (non-employment, low-pay work and high-pay work), thus adopting a multinomial logit specification. The issue of initial conditions is addressed and correlated random effects are assumed.FindingsThe authors find that being employed, either in low-paying or standard/high-paying job, might be considered a protective factor against the risk of nonemployment. They find evidence of genuine state dependence in the majority of countries explored, with important changes in magnitude. Several countries experienced a strengthening of persistence overtime in low-pay work. Some institutional factors, such as higher minimum wage and expenditure on labor market policies, might play a role in the reduction of the persistence in low-pay conditions.Originality/valueThe paper stresses the relevance of exploring the entire spectrum of labor market outcomes when analyzing the transitory/permanent nature of low-pay work. It provides novel evidence on the evolution of persistence in low-pay jobs and the role of institutions in Europe.

Join us for a thought-provoking discussion on tackling precarious work in the context of digitalization, sustainability, and social equity. This seminar will delve into two pressing challenges—and explore potential solutions—for improving job quality and reducing in-work poverty during a time of rapid economic and technological transformation. Engage with leading scholars in a multidisciplinary dialogue on how to ensure decent, fair, and secure work as we navigate the twin transitions shaping the future of employment. Structural economic changes and the weakening of labour market institutions have increased the risk that employment alone is not sufficient to avoid poverty. With the aim of better understanding the origins and evolution of complex conditions, growing attention has been devoted to two distinct but interrelated phenomena, i.e., in-work poverty and low-pay work. Building on this, we provide an overview of both phenomena in Europe, highlighting definitional and methodological issues, the role of socio-demographic characteristics, and the impact of institutional factors and policies. In the end, the lesson we can learn is that achieving SDG 8 requires not only increasing employment but also ensuring that it is characterized by quality, stability, and fairness of working conditions.

Governments across the globe are implementing stricter environmental policies to combat climate change and promote sustainability. This study contributes to the growing literature exploring the influence of environmental policy on skill-biased employment across various occupations. Specifically, we examine the causal effect of the revised version of Environmental Policy Stringency Index (EPS) and its components on skill-biased employment, focusing on occupations such as managers, professionals, technicians, and manual workers across 21 European economies from 2008 to 2020. Using the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), the findings reveal that stringent environmental policies affect employment shares across different occupational categories. Skilled workers tend to benefit more from such policies, with a notable increase in the employment of professionals across all policy measures and a more differentiated impact among technicians and managers. In contrast, manual workers are generally adversely affected by environmental policies. These asymmetric effects on occupations exacerbate labour market inequalities, including disparities in employment levels and potential earnings. This research highlights the importance of designing tailored policies to mitigate adverse labour market outcomes while facilitating a transition to sustainable economic practices.

This paper explores how householders’ and partners' low-pay conditions affect the risk of poverty of European households. We use 2016–2019 longitudinal European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data, model poverty and labour market outcomes, and account for possible endogeneity of low-pay work in the poverty equation. Low-pay work is defined on gross hourly wage basis. We find that low-pay work increases the risk of poverty compared to high-pay conditions. Notably, when compared to non-employment, the effect of low-pay work on poverty differs between householders and partners. The effect tends to be stronger for the former and smaller for the latter, which stresses the leading role of householders in income formation and the added-worker role of partners in households. The risk of poverty for low-pay workers is even reinforced by their higher probability of being employed in job positions with fewer annual working hours, such as part-time and temporary contracts. The magnitude of low-pay effects on poverty appears to be associated with institutions capable of sustaining the wage floor, earnings and income inequalities, and the generosity of social transfers. We find evidence of feedback effects from poverty on future labour market outcomes, suggesting a self-reinforcing mechanism between poverty and poor labour conditions, which along with limited upward mobility in the labour markets, may lead societies toward persistent income segmentation.

We examine the effect of streaming based on ability levels on individuals’ civic participation throughout their adult life. The hypothesis we test is that ability grouping influences individuals’ general self-concept and, consequently, their civic participation choices across the life course. We employ data from the British National Child Development Study, which follows all UK citizens born during a certain week in 1958. Six binary variables observed at 33, 42, and 51 years of age are considered to measure civic participation. Our approach defines causal estimands with multiple treatments referring to the evolution of civic engagement over time in terms of potential versions of a sequence of latent variables assumed to follow a Markov chain with initial and transition probabilities depending on posttreatment time-varying covariates. The model also addresses partially or entirely missing data on one or more indicators at a given time occasion and missing posttreatment covariate values using dummy indicators. The model is estimated by maximizing a weighted log-likelihood function with weights corresponding to the inverse probability of the received treatment obtained from a multinomial logit model based on pretreatment covariates. Our results show that ability grouping affects the civic participation of high-ability individuals when they are 33 years old with respect to participation in general elections.

We explore the effects of income poverty on the probability of being in arrears in Italy. We account for endogeneity by using a bivariate discrete response model, which allows considering feedback effects from arrears to future poverty status and selection issues. We also offer an analysis by macro-region. We use longitudinal 2016–2019 EU-SILC data. Our results suggest that being in arrears is characterized by a significant trap effect, which, however, tends to decline over time. We also find the presence of feedback effects from arrears condition to future poverty status. Notably, current poverty status is negatively associated with current arrears status, but the correlation is positive in the medium term. This may suggest that income conditions need time to exert their effects on the probability of being in arrears. In the medium term, being in arrears increases the probability of being poor. We also note heterogeneity at the regional level.

This paper explores the relationship between temporary employment and poverty in Italy by using 2016–2019 longitudinal EU-SILC data. We model both poverty and labour market outcomes and account for possible endogeneity of temporary employment in the poverty equation. We find that temporary employment reduces the risk of poverty whether compared with inactivity and unemployment. Temporary workers are more likely to stay in poverty with respect to their permanent counterpart. The different effect of permanent/temporary employment on the risk of poverty is more pronounced for householders than for partners, thereby stressing the leading role of the former in income formation. There is evidence of feedback effects from past poverty to current temporary employment. We also find significant genuine state dependence in both the processes of poverty and temporary employment. For the latter, we note the prevalence of a trapping effect into unstable jobs relationships, especially for householders. Finally, we stress the relatively weak role of social transfers in integrating labour income from temporary employment and therefore in breaking the detrimental effect of temporary work on poverty.

We use 2015–2018 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions longitudinal data for four European countries (the UK, Germany, France, and Italy) and a dynamic trivariate panel data model to analyze the complex relationship between poverty, work intensity, and disability. We find evidence of genuine state dependence in the three processes and feedback effects from past poverty to work intensity in all countries and from past poverty to disability in the UK, Germany, and Italy. Disability is detrimental to poverty, despite the mitigating role played by disability cash benefits. The magnitude of this effect seems to be associated with the average expenditure on social protection benefits and its distribution across functions. We stress the importance of accounting for the extra costs of disability and the key role work intensity plays in the disability–poverty connection. Finally, adopting a joint estimation strategy appears crucial to consistently estimating the relationship between the three processes.

This article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between expected wealth transfers (inheritances and gifts) and consumption, explicitly considering the distribution of consumption and wealth. While there are many empirical analyses of unexpected wealth transfers, it is unusual to analyze consumption with respect to expected wealth transfers because of the lack of information on expected inheritances or gifts. Using microdata for 17 European countries from the 2014 wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey, we find that households expecting a wealth transfer consume as if they were in a higher wealth decile. This increase in consumption differs in size depending on household wealth. We verify that this result is not related to risk preferences or liquidity constraints. These results provide support for consumption smoothing as predicted by the life-cycle model, although the extent of the smoothing depends on the position of the household in the wealth distribution.

We investigate whether and how individual and household socio-demographic characteristics, as well as labour market conditions, affect the probability of being a working poor in Italy. We use data for three years, 2019, 2020 and 2021, just before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. We offer both a descriptive and econometric investigation. Our findings suggest a protective role of education against the probability of being working poor, the existence of territorial duality, and a relatively higher risk of being in disadvantaged conditions associated with the presence of household members with disabilities and children. Notably, the effect of gender is less clear as it depends on the role females play in the household. In addition, self-employed workers were the most disadvantaged category and they also suffered a worsening during the pandemic. All in all, the analysis shows that the years under investigation were characterized by a widening of the pre-existing inequalities in the Italian labour market.

We use the 2015–2018 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions panel data and a dynamic bivariate probit model to estimate the impact of childbirth on the risk of poverty in 25 European countries. We model both poverty and childbirth mechanisms, identifying genuine state dependence and accounting for feedback effects from past poverty to childbirth. We find that childbirth slightly increases the risk of poverty in Europe, but some heterogeneities emerge at the country level. When disentangling the effects of childbirth conditional on past poverty status, it appears that childbirth determines redistributive effects possibly induced by welfare systems. We find evidence of genuine state dependence and suggests that discouraging factors induced by the experience of poverty itself has increased over time. The risk of poverty is triggered by the presence of dependent members in the household, while education and employment stability are helpful to combat poverty.

We investigate how disability affects income distribution and how this has evolved in Europe, using 2005-2008 and 2015-2018 European Union Statistics for Income and Living Conditions data. We model both income and disability processes in a dynamic way, allowing for the possible role of past income in determining disability. Our findings suggest the decade explored has been characterized by a slight strengthening of income polar-ization and lower income mobility. However, income inequality evolved differently by disability group: it increased for non-disabled, and decreased for people with severe disabilities and their households. For this latter, our results suggest this evolution can be explained by a worsening of overall income conditions, with greater persistence in poverty, lower persistence in richness, and a higher probability of moving from high to low-income positions. In this respect, increasing social expenditure for disability may be important for the mitigation of such detrimental effects.

We implement a dynamic bivariate probit model to explore the possible relation between at-risk-of-poverty and NEET (Not in Employment, Education or Training) in 21 European countries using 2016–2019 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions panel data. We identify genuine state dependence and account for possible feedback effects from past poverty to the NEET status. We also consider two alternative definitions of NEET, i.e. unemployed and inactive NEET and inactive NEET only. We find that both poverty and NEET are characterized by significant genuine state dependence. We also observe a vicious circle between the phenomena, especially when adopting the definition that includes unemployed and inactive NEETs. This suggests a leading role of unemployment in the detrimental effect of being NEET on poverty. We offer supplementary analyses and further insights on country heterogeneity by looking at the role of social protection expenditure. Finally, we stress that for young NEETS living outside of the family of origin, the NEET condition is not detrimental for poverty, conditional on the provision of adequate youth support.

This paper analyses the impact of matching frictions in the Portuguese labour market on individual unemployment hazard rates and unemployment durations. The coexistence of permanent contracts and temporary contracts in the Portuguese (dual) labour-market is akin to a matching friction, with a contract-type mismatch between jobseekers who prefer permanent contracts, whereas firms, in turn, prefer to offer temporary contracts. The paper uses a rich micro dataset which allows to compute a time and space varying contract-type mismatch index, over 86 local labour markets (job-centers of the Portuguese Public Employment System) and five years. Employing discrete time hazard models and a stock-flow matching mechanism, we find that local labour markets with higher contract-type mismatch rates are characterized by lower hazard rates and longer unemployment duration. Improving the desirability of temporary contracts and information about local contract-type mismatch rates may reduce matching frictions and average unemployment duration.

This paper provides novel evidence on the importance of the phenomenon of poverty and its heterogeneity across European countries. We analyze the determinants of poverty in Europe and their evolution over time by disentangling the role of genuine state dependence and heterogeneity. We apply alternative dynamic probit models accounting for endogenous initial conditions and correlated random effects to the pre-Great Recession period of 2005-2008 and the post- Great Recession period of 2015-2018 using EU-SILC longitudinal datasets for a sample of European countries in order to estimate genuine state dependence and uncover the role of observable and unobservable factors in determining the risk of poverty. Our findings suggest that the degree of genuine state dependence is relevant in Europe and that it increased slightly from pre- to post-Great Recession. This suggests that measures aimed at lifting individuals out of poverty, including cash transfers, have become even more important during the Europe 2020 decade. Our analysis also reveals that Europe is characterized by an increasing scarring effect of poverty, the trend of which has been exacerbated in the post-recession period. The analysis at the country level clarifies why the evolution of genuine state dependence was heterogeneous. While a clear pattern within macro-regions does not emerge, we find an association between country-level variation in genuine state dependence and some macroeconomic indicators. Finally, our results suggest that the protective role of higher education has diminished over time, while the role of employment stability and of childcare provision during early childhood has become even more important in the post-recession period.

Adequate knowledge of climate change and correct perception of the associated risks by the population are crucial factors for the effectiveness of climate policies. We analyze this topic by collecting information on the degree of current risk perception and its evolution over the last ten years among citizens living in five municipalities in an area of Abruzzo, a central Italian region. In addition, we gather information on the willingness of citizens to stipulate public insurance against damages caused by extreme events. The paper offers a descriptive analysis of the association between outcomes and individual/household characteristics. We find the degree of risk perception is relatively high, as around 2/3 of respondents believe the current risk of suffering damage from extreme events related to climate change is high or very high. More than 90% also believe that this risk has increased in the last ten years. The perception, however, is heterogeneous across population subgroups. Finally, citizens’ inclination toward public insurance covering damage from extreme events is also high. We also provide a quantitative analysis of the factors affecting the current risk perception by adopting a probit model. The related results essentially confirm evidence from the qualitative analysis and stress, in line with previous studies, the importance of previous damages as a predictor of risk perception.