We revisit the problem of modeling the ocean’s contribution to rapid, non-tidal Earth rotation variations at periods of 2–120 days. Estimates of oceanic angular momentum (OAM, 2007–2011) are drawn from a suite of established circulation models and new numerical simulations, whose finest configuration is on a $$^\circ $$ grid. We show that the OAM product by the Earth System Modeling Group at GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam has spurious short period variance in its equatorial motion terms, rendering the series a poor choice for describing oceanic signals in polar motion on time scales of less than $$\sim $$ 2 weeks. Accounting for OAM in rotation budgets from other models typically reduces the variance of atmosphere-corrected geodetic excitation by $$\sim $$ 54% for deconvolved polar motion and by $$\sim $$ 60% for length-of-day. Use of OAM from the $$^\circ $$ model does provide for an additional reduction in residual variance such that the combined oceanic–atmospheric effect explains as much as 84% of the polar motion excitation at periods < 120 days. Employing statistical analysis and bottom pressure changes from daily Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment solutions, we highlight the tendency of ocean models run at a 1 $$^\circ $$ grid spacing to misrepresent topographically constrained dynamics in some deep basins of the Southern Ocean, which has adverse effects on OAM estimates taken along the 90 $$^\circ $$ meridian. Higher model resolution thus emerges as a sensible target for improving the oceanic component in broader efforts of Earth system modeling for geodetic purposes.

Knowledge of submonthly variability in ocean bottom pressure (p(b)) is an essential element in space-geodetic analyses and global gravity field research. Estimates of these mass changes are typically drawn from numerical ocean models and, more recently, GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) series at daily sampling. However, the quality of p(b) fields from either source has been difficult to assess and reservations persist as to the dependence of regularized GRACE solutions on their oceanographic priors. Here, we make headway on the subject by comparing two daily satellite gravimetry products (years 2007-2009) both with each other and with p(b) output from a diverse mix of ocean models, complemented by insights from bottom pressure gauges. Emphasis is given to large spatial scales and periods p(b) signals (similar to 2 cm root-mean-square error) over Southern Ocean abyssal plains in the present GRACE de-aliasing model. These and other imperfections in baroclinic models are especially apparent at periods <10 days, although none of the GRACE series presents a realistic ground truth on time scales of a few days. A barotropic model simulation with parameterized topographic wave drag is most commensurate with the GRACE fields over the entire submonthly band, allowing for first-order inferences about error and noise in the gravimetric mass changes. Estimated p(b) errors vary with signal magnitude and location but are generally low enough (0.5-1.5 cm) to judge model skill in dynamically active regions.

Budgeting geophysical fluid excitations against space-geodetic observations of polar motion reveals non-negligible residuals on sub-monthly time scales, typically 1−2 cm when projected onto the Earth's surface. A possible source for these discrepancies are imperfections in the hydrodynamic models used to derive the required ocean excitation functions. To guide future model improvements, we present a systematic assessment of the oceanic component of sub-monthly polar motion based on three global time-stepping models which are forced by the same atmospheric data but considerably differ in their numerical setup and physical parameterizations. In particular, we use ocean bottom pressure output and angular momenta from (i) the finite-element 2 Dimensions Gravity Wave Model (Mog2D), (ii) the baroclinic Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) at 1° horizontal resolution, representing the current industry standard, and (iii) a more experimental, eddy-permitting setup of the MITgcm (MIT General Circulation Model). Validations of data from 2007 to 2008 are performed against observed polar motion and daily GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) solutions, which resolve the broad scales of ocean bottom pressure variability relevant for angular momentum considerations. No definite quantitative results are available at the time of this writing, but a specific question we aim to answer is whether the MITgcm run outperforms the other models in our validations, given its higher resolution and partial representation of flow interactions with major topographic features.

We investigate the contribution of continental hydrology signals to polar motion excitation resulting from changes in mass distribution associated with terrestrial water and snow/ice based on a variety of datasets. The impact of the former is less well known than that of other geophysical fluids, namely atmospheric and oceanic angular momentum signals, especially for oscillations over shorter-than-annual periods. The geodetic excitation function of polar motion can be determined from observations, while the hydrological excitation function can be estimated either from global models of the land-based hydrosphere or from indirect observations of variations in the Earth's gravity field. With more than 15 years of data, the pair of GRACE satellites has provided valid datasets for studying interannual polar motion excitation. Recent results are promising and indicate agreement between GRACE-derived interannual hydrological excitations and the corresponding geodetic observations. Our work focuses on the non-seasonal spectral range, and compares hydrological excitations based on recent GRACE solutions from different centres with signals from climate models, and as a residual from geodetic observations.

Continental hydrological loading by land water, snow and ice is a process that is important for the full understanding of the excitation of polar motion. In this study, we compute different estimations of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion (as hydrological angular momentum, HAM) using various variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models of the land-based hydrosphere. The main aim of this study is to show the influence of variables from different hydrological processes including evapotranspiration, runoff, snowmelt and soil moisture, on polar motion excitations at annual and short-term timescales. Hydrological excitation functions of polar motion are determined using selected variables of these GLDAS realizations. Furthermore, we use time-variable gravity field solutions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to determine the hydrological mass effects on polar motion excitation. We first conduct an intercomparison of the maps of variations of regional hydrological excitation functions, timing and phase diagrams of different regional and global HAMs. Next, we estimate the hydrological signal in geodetically observed polar motion excitation as a residual by subtracting the contributions of atmospheric angular momentum and oceanic angular momentum. Finally, the hydrological excitations are compared with those hydrological signals determined from residuals of the observed polar motion excitation series. The results will help us understand the relative importance of polar motion excitation within the individual hydrological processes, based on hydrological modeling. This method will allow us to estimate how well the polar motion excitation budget in the seasonal and inter-annual spectral ranges can be closed.

Diurnal S[Formula: see text] tidal oscillations in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system induce small perturbations of Earth's prograde annual nutation, but matching geophysical model estimates of this Sun-synchronous rotation signal with the observed effect in geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) data has thus far been elusive. The present study assesses the problem from a geophysical model perspective, using four modern-day atmospheric assimilation systems and a consistently forced barotropic ocean model that dissipates its energy excess in the global abyssal ocean through a parameterized tidal conversion scheme. The use of contemporary meteorological data does, however, not guarantee accurate nutation estimates per se; two of the probed datasets produce atmosphere-ocean-driven S[Formula: see text] terms that deviate by more than 30 [Formula: see text]as (microarcseconds) from the VLBI-observed harmonic of [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]as. Partial deficiencies of these models in the diurnal band are also borne out by a validation of the air pressure tide against barometric in situ estimates as well as comparisons of simulated sea surface elevations with a global network of S[Formula: see text] tide gauge determinations. Credence is lent to the global S[Formula: see text] tide derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and the operational model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). When averaged over a temporal range of 2004 to 2013, their nutation contributions are estimated to be [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]as (MERRA) and [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]as (ECMWF operational), thus being virtually equivalent with the VLBI estimate. This remarkably close agreement will likely aid forthcoming nutation theories in their unambiguous a priori account of Earth's prograde annual celestial motion.

Diurnal S\(_1\) tidal oscillations in the coupled atmosphere–ocean system induce small perturbations of Earth’s prograde annual nutation, but matching geophysical model estimates of this Sun-synchronous rotation signal with the observed effect in geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) data has thus far been elusive. The present study assesses the problem from a geophysical model perspective, using four modern-day atmospheric assimilation systems and a consistently forced barotropic ocean model that dissipates its energy excess in the global abyssal ocean through a parameterized tidal conversion scheme. The use of contemporary meteorological data does, however, not guarantee accurate nutation estimates per se; two of the probed datasets produce atmosphere–ocean-driven S\(_1\) terms that deviate by more than 30 \(\upmu \)as (microarcseconds) from the VLBI-observed harmonic of \(-16.2+i113.4\) \(\upmu \)as. Partial deficiencies of these models in the diurnal band are also borne out by a validation of the air pressure tide against barometric in situ estimates as well as comparisons of simulated sea surface elevations with a global network of S\(_1\) tide gauge determinations. Credence is lent to the global S\(_1\) tide derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and the operational model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). When averaged over a temporal range of 2004 to 2013, their nutation contributions are estimated to be \(-8.0+i106.0\) \(\upmu \)as (MERRA) and \(-9.4+i121.8\) \(\upmu \)as (ECMWF operational), thus being virtually equivalent with the VLBI estimate. This remarkably close agreement will likely aid forthcoming nutation theories in their unambiguous a priori account of Earth’s prograde annual celestial motion.

Estimation of the free core nutation (FCN) period is a challenging prospect. Mostly, two methods, one direct and one indirect, have been applied in the past to address the problem by analyzing the Earth orientation parameters observed by the very long baseline interferometry. The indirect method estimates the FCN period from resonance effects of the FCN on forced nutation terms, whereas the direct method estimates the FCN period using the Fourier Transform (FT) approach. However, the FCN period estimated by the direct FT technique suffers from the non-stationary characteristics of celestial pole offsets (CPO). In this study, the FCN period is estimated by another direct method, i.e., the sliding-window complex least-squares fit method (SCLF). The estimated values of the FCN period for the full set of 1984.0–2014.0 and four subsets (1984.0–2000.0, 2000.0–2014.0, 1984.0–1990.0, 1990.0–2014.0) range from −428.8 to −434.3 mean solar days. From the FT to the SCLF method, the estimate uncertainty of the FCN period falls from several tens of days to several days. Thus, the SCLF method may serve as an independent direct way to estimate the FCN period, complementing and validating the indirect resonance method that has been frequently used before.

We use the latest time-variable Earth gravity field harmonics from the GRACE satellite mission (Release 5 – RL05) to determine seasonal and nonseasonal scales of polar motion excitation functions from global geophysical fluids, and particularly from the portion from land-based hydrology. Hydrological excitation functions of polar motion from the mass of equivalent water thicknesses (EWT) derived gravimetrically from the solutions of three GRACE processing centers, the Center for Space Research (CSR), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the GeoforschungsZentrum (GFZ), are intercompared. Additionally, we estimate the hydrological signal as well in a different manner, as a residual from geodetically observed polar motion, by subtracting atmospheric (pressure + wind) and oceanic (bottom pressure + currents) contributions. Among the gravimetric excitation functions based on RL05 there are still significant differences between center results which we attribute mainly to residual signals over ocean areas. It appears that the CSR processing may lead to stronger agreement between the hydrological signal and residual values, surely due to details in the processing, like resolutions to different degree and order used in the static background gravity model.

AbstractThe activities and some research progress of IAU Commission 19 (C19) - Rotation of the Earth - in the past triennial term (2012-2015) is reported in this paper, including the scientific session and business meeting of C19, as well as a business meeting of the IAU/IAG Joint Working Group of “Theory of Earth Rotation” (JWG_ThER) during the XXIX IAU General Assembly in Hawaii, USA. Three reports of JWG_ThER progress, IERS and IAG, eleven reports of national projects and individual institutions, a short summary of the history and heritage of C19, and an Overview of the status and outlook of new Commission A2 are also presented.