For the foreseeable future, plant breeding methodology will continue to unfold as a practical application of the scaling of quantitative biology. These efforts to increase the effective scale of breeding programs will focus on the immediate and long-term needs of society. The foundations of the quantitative dimension will be integration of quantitative genetics, statistics, gene-to-phenotype knowledge of traits embedded within crop growth and development models. The integration will be enabled by advances in quantitative genetics methodology and computer simulation. The foundations of the biology dimension will be integrated experimental and functional gene-to-phenotype modelling approaches that advance our understanding of functional germplasm diversity, and gene-to-phenotype trait relationships for the native and transgenic variation utilised in agricultural crops. The trait genetic knowledge created will span scales of biology, extending from molecular genetics to multi-trait phenotypes embedded within evolving genotype–environment systems. The outcomes sought and successes achieved by plant breeding will be measured in terms of sustainable improvements in agricultural production of food, feed, fibre, biofuels and other desirable plant products that meet the needs of society. In this review, examples will be drawn primarily from our experience gained through commercial maize breeding. Implications for other crops, in both the private and public sectors, will be discussed.

Two outlines for mixed model based approaches to quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping in existing maize hybrid selection programs are presented: a restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The methods use the in-silico-mapping procedure developed by Parisseaux and Bernardo (2004) as a starting point. The original single-point approach is extended to a multi-point approach that facilitates interval mapping procedures. For computational and conceptual reasons, we partition the full set of relationships from founders to parents of hybrids into two types of relations by defining so-called intermediate founders. QTL effects are defined in terms of those intermediate founders. Marker based identity by descent relationships between intermediate founders define structuring matrices for the QTL effects that change along the genome. The dimension of the vector of QTL effects is reduced by the fact that there are fewer intermediate founders than parents. Furthermore, additional reduction in the number of QTL effects follows from the identification of founder groups by various algorithms. As a result, we obtain a powerful mixed model based statistical framework to identify QTLs in genetic backgrounds relevant to the elite germplasm of a commercial breeding program. The identification of such QTLs will provide the foundation for effective marker assisted and genome wide selection strategies. Analyses of an example data set show that QTLs are primarily identified in different heterotic groups and point to complementation of additive QTL effects as an important factor in hybrid performance.

Complex quantitative traits of plants as measured on collections of genotypes across multiple environments are the outcome of processes that depend in intricate ways on genotype and environment simultaneously. For a better understanding of the genetic architecture of such traits as observed across environments, genotype-by-environment interaction should be modeled with statistical models that use explicit information on genotypes and environments. The modeling approach we propose explains genotype-by-environment interaction by differential quantitative trait locus (QTL) expression in relation to environmental variables. We analyzed grain yield and grain moisture for an experimental data set composed of 976 F(5) maize testcross progenies evaluated across 12 environments in the U.S. corn belt during 1994 and 1995. The strategy we used was based on mixed models and started with a phenotypic analysis of multi-environment data, modeling genotype-by-environment interactions and associated genetic correlations between environments, while taking into account intraenvironmental error structures. The phenotypic mixed models were then extended to QTL models via the incorporation of marker information as genotypic covariables. A majority of the detected QTL showed significant QTL-by-environment interactions (QEI). The QEI were further analyzed by including environmental covariates into the mixed model. Most QEI could be understood as differential QTL expression conditional on longitude or year, both consequences of temperature differences during critical stages of the growth.