This paper improves the visual change-based personnel evacuation model by considering the evacuees’ gravity. Specifically, first, the new model incorporates the gravity formula in the model’s mechanic part to consider the influence of gravity. Second, the new model involves rules for determining the visual range of personnel moving in the stairwell. Third, the proposed model investigates the influence of the angle and width of the stairwell, the number of people, and other factors during personnel evacuation under the influence of gravity. The model is developed in Python and is compared with actual results, revealing that the proposed model is more realistic considering the evacuation time compared to current models. Indeed, under a fixed number of people, when the stairwell angle is less than 34°, the evacuation time decreases as the angle increases, and when the stairwell angle exceeds 34°, the evacuation time is almost unchanged. Additionally, under a fixed number of evacuees, the evacuation time decreases as the width of the stairwell increases, and due to stairwell width space redundancy, the evacuation time tends to stabilize. The results of the new model research provide reference for the design of building safety evacuation, thereby improving the safety of buildings.

Earthquake emergency response is a complex process, and a large number of tasks are involved in the process of urban earthquake emergency response. To further study the collaborative relationship between organisations in the city-level emergency collaboration network driven by different emergency tasks, this study first constructs a task-organisation relationship framework and explores the collaborative mechanism of organisations driven by tasks. Then, the co-expression analysis was used to analyse the degree of correlation between task-driven emergency organisations. Finally, considering the influence of tasks on the degree of inter-organisational collaboration, this study constructs a task-driven weighted directed emergency organisation collaboration network. Social network analysis was used to reveal the structural attributes of the task-driven organisational collaboration network, the collaborative characteristics among organisations in the network, and the structural positions of organisations in the collaborative network. It is found that the task-driven earthquake emergency collaboration network was relatively loose, and there were small groups with close collaboration in the network. Most organisations in these small groups are in the same task module, and their tasks are similar. Commanders in the task execution process are usually at the core of the network, and these organisations are usually the main coordinators of the overall emergency collaboration and task module networks. These findings can improve our understanding of earthquake emergency organisational collaboration relationships and inspire the optimisation of urban earthquake emergency management.

This paper proposes a new model for characterizing the emergency evacuation process of people during a disaster. This model considers the change of visual field based on a cellular automata model combined with a behavioral heuristic model. Using the behavioral heuristic model, the dynamic field parameters related to the change of visual field are first established. Then, new judgment rules are developed for personnel encountering obstacles by combining the characteristics of the new field of view. Finally, an analytical comparison is made between the proposed model and the traditional evacuation model in terms of the changes in the fields of view and the number of evacuees. The results show that the level of path service determines the efficiency of evacuation. It is also seen that herd mentality acts as a hindrance in cases where the personnel are dependent while otherwise acting as a facilitator. It is also shown that the evacuation time increases by the number of evacuees up to a certain threshold. Beyond that threshold the evacuation time fluctuates within a certain range by increasing the number of evacuees is not affected by changes in the field of view. The new model is also faster than the social force model, easier to calculate on a large scale, and more realistic than the traditional cellular model.

呼吸道传播病毒传播动力学特征的研究对于预测病毒传播趋势、掌握病毒传播特性、推演病毒传播控制策略至关重要。在病毒传播动力学研究方面，传统上采用系统动力学方法构建病毒传播仓室模型进行模拟和病毒传播推演，其中最为典型的病毒传播仓室模型是SIR(易感susceptible、感染infective、清除removal)[1]模型。随着人们对病毒传播特征研究的不断深入，许多学者开始基于SIR模型进行修正和修改，以更为真实或有针对性地模拟病毒传播过程，如谭双凤等[2]基于SEIR模型对具有潜伏期的病毒构建了病毒传播微分方程模型，并分析了其传播机制和规律。金薇等[3]考虑到多种变易病毒的影响，提出了具有时滞的两种新冠病毒并行传播的SIR模型，分析了原病毒和变异病毒灭绝和持久的充分条件。宋玉蓉等[4]考虑到人群信息传播与病毒传播的同步性，提出了意识扩散和SEIR病毒的双层网络模型，分析了遗忘因素等多种关键因素对病毒传播过程的影响。路学鹏等[5]针对新冠病毒的传播特点，基于系统动力学提出了新的SE4IR2模型，以预测病毒传播发展趋势。

The passenger evacuation capacity (PEC) of a cruise ship is a pivotal guarantee for quickly and safely evacuating all personnel on a damaged ship during an emergency. A general framework of the agent-based evacuation model is proposed in this study to simulate the entire process of cruise ship evacuation. The total evacuation time, duration of Level of Service (LOS) lower than E, effective flow rate of the escape route, density of the muster station, and usage rate of the lifeboat/life raft are used as the five evaluation indicators to quantify the PEC of cruise ships, thus providing a reference for the optimization analysis of evacuation procedures. With this framework, the PECs under different evacuation strategies of a cruise ship were evaluated in the context of ship heeling to capsizing for the Yangtze Gold 1. Evaluation results show that the increase of heeling angle when the evacuation order is issued does not affect the perception time of the first 90% of evacuees, but significantly increases the total evacuation time after more than 20°. Moreover, the degree of regional congestion is affected by several factors, including the assignment of muster stations, evacuation in batches, the place of obtaining life jackets, the heeling angle, the difference of escape route flows, and other factors. The results of this study provide PECs under different strategies as references for specific accident scenarios and evacuation targets.

Objective:To set up a structured or semi-structured database of public health emergencies, to integrate, extract, summarize and speculate effectively based on multi-source information, and to provide informatization and digitization support for emergency decision-making.Methods:Qualitative research methods, such as focus group and nominal group technique, in-depth interviews, were used to collect data and professional expertise of cases focusing on case categories, inclusion and exclusion principle, compiling framework and main influence factors. Structured model was constructed based on analyzing and summarizing emergency case essentials.Results:Twenty-five public health emergency cases were selected and included in this study. Followed by the 7-step compiling framework constructed in this study, a description-solution-conclusion scheme was proposed, composed of 9 parts, including structured case file, overview, chronicles, prevention and preparation, response and rescue, risk communication, restoration and reconstruction, after action report, references and attachments.Conclusion:A structured model was designed from the scenario-to-response perspective, with a database constructed following the standardized procedures, to retrospect the whole process from various aspects for the quick and impersonal reference of policy makers, which helping to overcome several obstacles for decision-making, for example, urgency, complexity, information uncertainty and accessibility, during public health emergency response, as well as further inspire the artificial intelligence utilization of historical experiences.

Chemical industry is an important pillar of China’s economy. With the rapid development of economy, the industrial cluster development in chemical industry is gradually increasing in China, and the number of construction projects and construction chemical industrial parks either planned or under construction is also rocketing year by year (Dou et al., Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 60:35–45, 2019). By the end of 2017, chemical enterprises accounted for about 7% of the total number of industrial enterprises in China, and the output value of the chemical industry increased at an average annual rate of 18%. There were 502 national key chemical parks or industrial parks dominated by petroleum and chemical industry (Dong C Z. 2006. Study of Development Strategy of Tianjin Lingang Industrial District. Tianjin University (in Chinese)). Although the chemical industry cluster promotes economic development, it brings serious safety problems.

This book elucidates several practical methods on case analysis, questionnaire interviews, multi-objective optimization modeling

Many complex systems in real life are made up of several subsystems that evolve through time. Multiplex growth network models, in which edges reflect different types between the same vertex set, can be used to represent such systems. Here we put forward a new multiplex growth network model based on nonlinear preferential attachment rule. Firstly, we derive the general joint degree distribution expression of the model via the rate equation approach at the steady-state. Secondly, by using the Z-transform theory, we obtain the joint degree distribution of the model corresponding to the weight function $$f(k)=k$$ and $$f(k)=c>0$$ . Finally, we apply Monte Carlo simulation to check the correctness of the theoretical analysis, the research shows that the theoretical results are corroborated with Monte Carlo simulations.

为提升突发事件预警信息传播能力,拓宽预警信息传播渠道,增强预警信息传播多元化特征,提出群体内个体传播影响力评估方法及应急信息传播模式制定方法,并基于网络分析与多智能体建模,研究群体应急信息传播策略制定方法与有效性分析手段,重点阐述方法实施路径与应用方向.研究结果可用于制定基于社会网络的应急信息传播策略,并通过多智能建模对应急信息传播情景进行有效性推演.

为从更微观角度分析人群疏散过程中疏散行为及路网设计对疏散效果的影响,基于腾龙芳烃(漳州)有限公司"4·6"爆炸着火重大事故,构建多智能体人群应急疏散模型,模拟人群中个体群组、惯性、就近、从众、信息传播的行为决策及相互交互影响.结果表明:群组行为会严重影响应急疏散效果,在疏散路网两端避难所附近会出现明显拥堵现象,在疏散路网设计和避难所选择时,应尽可能避免出现极端汇流路段或节点;在应急培训中,应告知群众减少群组行为.研究结果可为人群应急疏散提供借鉴.

According to accident data obtained from the China Chemical Information Net, relevant information was extracted from the 5,207 hazardous chemical leakage accidents (HCLAs) and evacuations caused by some HCLAs (1 5 7) in China from 2009 to 2018. After conducting statistical analysis, the characteristics and the trend of development of the current HCLAs in China were obtained, and so as the emergency evacuation level. According to the results, a regional imbalance still exists in China’s HCLAs and more cases of hazardous chemical leakage accidents are occurring in the coastal areas. HCLAs that take place in factories (industrial parks) and civilian residences have the highest mortality. Analyzing emergency evacuations caused by the hazardous chemical leaks, it can be seen that HCLAs in the pipeline transportation are most likely to cause regional evacuations, most of the evacuations take place in rural areas, and fuel gas and ammonia leaks are the main hazardous chemicals that lead to evacuations. In order to improve the safety status of hazardous chemicals industry, combined with the current problems faced by enterprises, governments and society, we discussed and analyzed the framework of integrated management of hazardous chemicals from two aspects: safety management system and emergency protection actions for hazardous chemicals leakage accidents.

In large-scale regional evacuation, public pre-evacuation time estimation is an important link of evacuation analysis and emergency management. This paper redefines the concept of "pre-evacuation time" based on the characteristics of unconventional emergencies. A new prediction model of traffic loading rate for large-scale evacuations based on a real case survey was proposed. The model takes into account two groups of people who have received evacuation order/message (EOM) and have not received EOM. The analysis shows that the probability distributions of the pre-evacuation times of those who received and did not receive an EOM conform to Weibull distributions. The earlier the EOM is received, the shorter the average pre-evacuation time of the people is. At the same time, to further study the characteristics of the pre-evacuation time of the evacuating population, the distribution of the pre-evacuation time is discussed from three aspects: the time of receipt of the EOM, the source of EOM, and the channels of receipt of the EOM. The new model and method can more accurately estimate the loading rate of evacuation traffic flow in large-scale evacuation when the public cannot be accurately informed of the EOM time. (C) 2020 Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Major chemical accidents may threaten the lives and health of people in the surrounding areas. Large-scale regional evacuation is a key measure for protecting the public from these accidents. In such unconventional emergency situations, the diffusion of evacuation warnings has a significant impact on the public's decision on whether to take evacuation actions. Through an investigation and analysis of evacuation cases, this paper discusses the diffusion characteristics of evacuation warning and evacuation efficiency of the public in major chemical accident cases. The results indicate that different diffusion methods of evacuation warnings affect public evacuation decisions. In addition, based on curve fitting and regression analysis, we propose a mathematical model of evacuation warning diffusion for responsive evacuation and an evaluation model of the relationship between the diffusion of evacuation warning and the evacuation rate. The results indicate that in the responsive evacuation process, the diffusion efficiency of the evacuation warning corresponds to Weibull distribution. As the diffusion of the evacuation warning continues, the evacuation rate of the people who receive evacuation warnings first decreases and then increases, when more than 50% of the people in the evacuation area receive the evacuation warning. The evacuation rate of the people who do not receive evacuation warnings increases first and then decreases. The results of the fitting analysis indicate that when -73% of the people in the evacuation area receive an evacuation warning, the area's overall evacuation rate is the highest. This can provide a basis and reference for regional evacuation analysis and emergency planning in unconventional emergency situations. (C) 2020 Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

This paper provides a risk assessment method of sheltering in-place for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide. In this paper, the shelter-in-place risk is estimated by integrating the health consequences of an individual taking one kind of emergency response to the emergency orders of sheltering in place from the emergency decision makers and the probability of the corresponding emergency response action. The probability of the corresponding emergency response action in the proposed method is estimated through the accident probability analysis and the probability analysis of taking a certain response action. The health consequence estimation is based on air exchange rate test of the shelter buildings as well as accident consequence calculation. The evaluation of shelter-in-place risks based on "as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)" guidelines was employed to provide suggestions for emergency management under both normal conditions and off normal conditions. A case study of risk assessment of sheltering in the local residential houses in Xuanhan County of Sichuan Province, China was taken as an example to illustrate the proposed risk assessment process of shelter-in-place and its application in the decision-making process for emergency management.

In emergencies, warnings can flow amongst crowds via person-to-person communications. Interpersonal warning dissemination is important for warning people when the government does not have sufficient time or personnel to notify all affected people. Moreover, if interpersonal warning dissemination can be used to warn people in emergencies, the warning efficiency of the crowd can be improved so that the emergency response efficiency of people can be improved. Similarly, anti-warnings that can cause a negative influence on emergency responses can also flow amongst crowds. In this scenario, how can interpersonal dissemination be properly utilized to improve warning efficiency? In this paper, we build a game model that includes warning and anti-warning dissemination based on multi-agent modelling. Moreover, we propose an efficient strategy based on dynamic dissemination characteristics for improving warning efficiency in a crowd. To ensure the reliability of the game model, the Monte Carlo method is applied to conduct our experiments. To verify the practicability of the proposed strategy, 40 Monte Carlo experiments are conducted in synthetic and real crowds. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed strategy. The proposed game model can be applied to study the dissemination of information in a crowd during emergencies. The proposed strategy can be used to train people in emergency drills to improve their emergency response capabilities.

Public evacuation preparation exerts an important impact on overall evacuation efficiency during regional evacuations. Early warnings often delay the occurrence of chemical accidents. Studying the characteristics of public evacuation preparation in such accidents will help develop better evacuation strategies considering the actual public response. In this work, the characteristics and factors influencing public evacuation preparation behaviors were analyzed by examining an evacuation case in China. The results indicated that the probability distribution of public's evacuation preparation time during a regional evacuation conforms to a Weibull distribution regardless of whether or not evacuation warnings were received. An estimation model of the traffic flow loading rate in a regional evacuation was then proposed on the basis of this finding. The results of this research can provide a reliable reference for evacuation modeling or logistics optimization for future incidents.