In rangeland ecosystems of the western United States, invasion by exotic annual grass (EAG) poses a substantial threat to native biodiversity. Studies have shown that weather, especially precipitation, can greatly influence the rate of invasion and EAG cover in arid and semi-arid rangeland ecosystems. In a previous effort to help inform timely decisions of local and regional land managers, the U.S. Geological Survey released multiple EAG cover maps that were driven by varying precipitation scenarios for rangeland ecosystems of the western United States. In those modelled maps, we found a positive correlation of EAG cover to precipitation in most areas as expected. However, in certain anomalous areas (less than 10% of the landscape) precipitation had no or negative correlation with EAG cover. In this study, we set out to understand what causes these anomalies. We identified variables, such as edaphic, topographic, and coexisting vegetation that may influence EAG cover in different precipitation scenarios. We implemented a thresholding approach to assess the influence of these variables on EAG cover. We found that soils with low clay content have a higher likelihood of positive EAG anomalies (higher EAG cover with less precipitation) and that increasing perennial herbaceous and decreasing shrub vegetation cover results in a higher likelihood of negative EAG anomalies (lower EAG cover with more precipitation). We also found a higher likelihood of negative EAG anomalies in higher solar radiation areas, and high frequency of positive EAG anomalies in mid and low solar radiation areas. Multiple factors play significant roles in EAG cover in the arid and semi-arid rangelands of the United States. Understanding these factors can help to better forecast EAG cover and therefore better plan for fire risk and management strategies.

Expansions in the extent and infestation levels of exotic annual grass (EAG) within the rangelands of the western United States are well documented. Land managers are tasked with developing plans to limit EAG spread and prevent irreversible ecosystem deterioration. The most common EAG species and the subject of extensive study is Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass). Cheatgrass has spread rapidly in western rangelands since its initial invasion more than 100 years ago. Another concerning aggressive EAG, Taeniatherum caput-medusae (medusahead), is also commonly found in some of these areas. To control the spread of EAGs, researchers have investigated applying several control methods during different developmental stages of cheatgrass and medusahead. These control strategies require accurate maps of the timing and spatial patterns of the developmental stages to apply mitigation strategies in the correct areas at the right time. In this study, we developed annual phenological datasets for cheatgrass and medusahead with two objectives. The first objective was to determine if cheatgrass and medusahead can be differentiated at 30 m resolution using their phenological differences. The second objective was to establish an annual phenology metric regression tree model used to map the growing seasons of cheatgrass and medusahead. Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS)-derived predicted weekly cloud-free 30 m normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images were used to develop these metric maps. The result of this effort was maps that identify the start and end of sustained growing season time for cheatgrass and medusahead at 30 m for the Snake River Plain and Northern Basin and Range ecoregions. These phenological datasets also identify the start and end-of-season NDVI values, along with maximum NDVI throughout the study period. These metrics may be utilized to characterize annual growth patterns for cheatgrass and medusahead. This approach can be utilized to plan time-sensitive control measures such as herbicide applications or cattle grazing.

Expansion of exotic annual grass (EAG), such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) and medusahead (Taeniatherum caputmedusae [L.] Nevski), could cause irreversible changes to arid and semiarid rangeland ecosystems in the western United States. The distribution and abundance of EAG species are highly affected by weather variables such as temperature and precipitation. The study's goal is to understand how different precipitation scenarios affect EAG abundance estimates and dynamics, and we develop a machine learning modeling approach to predict how changes in annual and immediate past precipitation patterns could affect the abundance of EAG. The machine learning predictive model used seed source from previous years, weather variables, and soil profiles to drive its predictions. We achieved excellent training accuracy ( r = 0.95 and median absolute error [MdAE]= 2.36% cover) and strong test accuracy ( r = 0.79 and MdAE = 4.54% cover). We developed five versions of EAG abundance maps for 2022 with different precipitation scenarios: 9 yr of average precipitation, half of the average, three-fourths of the average, one and one-half times the average, and two times the average. The approach presented can be replicated to new study domains and easily modified for use with other precipitation scenarios. Developing multiple versions of a year's EAG spatially explicit abundance dataset predictions from multiple weather-based scenarios can provide important information to land managers as they prepare for variable EAG dynamics each year. Informed annual predictions based on weather scenario -driven models have the potential to improve fire preparation decisions.(c) 2023 The US Geological Survey and The Society for Range Management. Published by Elsevier Inc on behalf of The Society for Range Management. All rights reserved. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )

This research builds upon the extensive body of work to model exotic annual grass (EAG) characteristics and invasion. EAGs increase wildland fire risk and intensifies wildland fire behavior in western U.S. rangelands. Therefore, understanding characteristics of EAG growth increases understanding of its dynamics and can inform rangeland management decisions. To better understand EAG phenology and spatial distribution, monthly weather (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature) variables were analyzed for 24 level III ecoregions. This research characterizes EAGs’ phenology identified by a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) threshold-based interpolation technique. An EAG phenology metric model was used to estimate a growing season dynamic for the years 2017–2021 for shrub and herbaceous land cover types in the western conterminous United States (66% of the area). The EAG phenology metrics include six growing season metrics such as start of season time, end of season time, and time of maximum NDVI during the growing season. The models’ cross validation results for Pearson’s r ranged from 0.88 to 0.95. Increased understanding of the effects that weather conditions have on EAG growth and spatial distribution can help land managers develop time-sensitive plans to protect entities deemed valuable to society like native habitat, wildlife, recreational areas, and air quality.

The invasion of exotic annual grass (EAG), e.g., cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae), into rangeland ecosystems of the western United States is a broad-scale problem that affects wildlife habitats, increases wildfire frequency, and adds to land management costs. However, identifying individual species of EAG abundance from remote sensing, particularly at early stages of invasion or growth, can be problematic because of overlapping controls and similar phenological characteristics among native and other exotic vegetation. Subsequently, refining and developing tools capable of quantifying the abundance and phenology of annual and perennial grass species would be beneficial to help inform conservation and management efforts at local to regional scales. Here, we deploy an enhanced version of the U.S. Geological Survey Rangeland Exotic Plant Monitoring System to develop timely and accurate maps of annual (2016–2020) and intra-annual (May 2021 and July 2021) abundances of exotic annual and perennial grass species throughout the rangelands of the western United States. This monitoring system leverages field observations and remote-sensing data with artificial intelligence/machine learning to rapidly produce annual and early season estimates of species abundances at a 30-m spatial resolution. We introduce a fully automated and multi-task deep-learning framework to simultaneously predict and generate weekly, near-seamless composites of Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 spectral data. These data, along with auxiliary datasets and time series metrics, are incorporated into an ensemble of independent XGBoost models. This study demonstrates that inclusion of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Normalized Difference Wetness Index time-series data generated from our deep-learning framework enables near real-time and accurate mapping of EAG (Median Absolute Error (MdAE): 3.22, 2.72, and 0.02; and correlation coefficient (r): 0.82, 0.81, and 0.73; respectively for EAG, cheatgrass, and medusahead) and native perennial grass abundance (MdAE: 2.51, r:0.72 for Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda)). Our approach and the resulting data provide insights into rangeland grass dynamics, which will be useful for applications, such as fire and drought monitoring, habitat suitability mapping, as well as land-cover and land-change modelling. Spatially explicit, timely, and accurate species-specific abundance datasets provide invaluable information to land managers.

The ecosystem performance approach, used in a previously published case study focusing on the Nebraska Sandhills, proved to minimize impacts of non-climatic factors (e.g., overgrazing, fire, pests) on the remotely-sensed signal of seasonal vegetation greenness resulting in a better attribution of its changes to climate variability. The current study validates the applicability of this approach for assessment of seasonal and interannual climate impacts on forage production in the western United States semi-arid grasslands. Using a piecewise regression tree model, we developed the Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP), a proxy for annual forage production that reflects climatic influences while minimizing impacts of management and disturbances. The EEP model establishes relations between seasonal climate, site-specific growth potential, and long-term growth variability to capture changes in the growing season greenness measured via a time-integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observed using a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The resulting 19 years of EEP were converted to expected biomass (EB, kg ha−1 year−1) using a newly-developed relation with the Soil Survey Geographic Database range production data (R2 = 0.7). Results were compared to ground-observed biomass datasets collected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and University of Nebraska-Lincoln (R2 = 0.67). This study illustrated that this approach is transferable to other semi-arid and arid grasslands and can be used for creating timely, post-season forage production assessments. When combined with seasonal climate predictions, it can provide within-season estimates of annual forage production that can serve as a basis for more informed adaptive decision making by livestock producers and land managers.

Abstract Exotic annual grasses (EAG) are one of the most damaging agents of change in western North America. Despite known socio‐environmental effects of EAG there remains a need to enhance monitoring capabilities for better informing conservation and management practices. Here, we integrate field observations, remote sensing and climate data with machine‐learning techniques to estimate and assess patterns of historical (1985–2019; R2 = 0.86 ± 0.05; MAE = 6.7 ± 1.4%), present (2020), and future (2025–2040) EAG abundance (30‐m) across much of the western United States. Trend analysis revealed that ∼8% and 1% of the landscape experienced significant rises and declines in historical EAG cover, respectively, with hotspots of invasion generally occurring near roads and along low‐to‐mid elevation gradients with warmer and drier conditions. Accurate simulations of the response of EAG to changing environmental conditions, disturbances and management treatments indicate that ecosystem resistance to invasion is largely controlled by long‐term EAG abundance (surrogate for seed bank), time since and frequency of wildfire, and plant community interactions. Ecological thresholds associated with enhanced probabilities of wildfire occurrence and invasion rates indicate that relatively little (10%) EAG cover is needed to heighten these risks. Climate change is expected to push 8% of the landscape across invasion thresholds by 2040, impacting 6% of existing sage‐grouse habitat, and we identify where fuel breaks may be placed to reduce wildfire risks and invasion. Spatially detailed, timely, and accurate depictions of past, present, and future EAG abundance are vital for the protection of life and property and the continued stewardship of sagebrush ecosystems.

Invasive annual grasses, such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), have proliferated in dryland ecosystems of the western United States, promoting increased fire activity and reduced biodiversity that can be detrimental to socio-environmental systems. Monitoring exotic annual grass cover and dynamics over large areas requires the use of remote sensing that can support early detection and rapid response initiatives. However, few studies have leveraged remote sensing technologies and computing frameworks capable of providing rangeland managers with maps of exotic annual grass cover at relatively high spatiotemporal resolutions and near real-time latencies. Here, we developed a system for automated mapping of invasive annual grass (%) cover using in situ observations, harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) data, maps of biophysical variables, and machine learning techniques. A robust and automated cloud, cloud shadow, water, and snow/ice masking procedure (mean overall accuracy >81%) was implemented using time-series outlier detection and data mining techniques prior to spatiotemporal interpolation of HLS data via regression tree models (r = 0.94; mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.02). Weekly, cloud-free normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) image composites (2016–2018) were used to construct a suite of spectral and phenological metrics (e.g., start and end of season dates), consistent with information derived from Moderate Resolution Image Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. These metrics were incorporated into a data mining framework that accurately (r = 0.83; MAE = 11) modeled and mapped exotic annual grass (%) cover throughout dryland ecosystems in the western United States at a native, 30-m spatial resolution. Our results show that inclusion of weekly HLS time-series data and derived indicators improves our ability to map exotic annual grass cover, as compared to distribution models that use MODIS products or monthly, seasonal, or annual HLS composites as primary inputs. This research fills a critical gap in our ability to effectively assess, manage, and monitor drylands by providing a framework that allows for an accurate and timely depiction of land surface phenology and exotic annual grass cover at spatial and temporal resolutions that are meaningful to local resource managers.

Land management practices and disturbances (e.g. overgrazing, fire) have substantial effects on grassland forage production. When using satellite remote sensing to monitor climate impacts, such as drought stress on annual forage production, minimizing land management practices and disturbance effects sends a clear climate signal to the productivity data. This study investigates the effect of this climate signal by: (1) providing spatial estimates of expected biomass under specific climate conditions, (2) determining which drought indices explain the majority of interannual variability in this biomass, and (3) developing a predictive model that estimates the annual biomass early in the growing season. To address objective 1, this study uses an established methodology to determine Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP) in the Nebraska Sandhills, US, representing annual forage levels after accounting for non-climatic influences. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data were used to approximate actual ecosystem performance. Seventeen years (2000–2016) of annual EEP was calculated using piecewise regression tree models of site potential and climate data. Expected biomass (EB), EEP converted to biomass in kg*ha−1*yr−1, was then used to examine the predictive capacity of several drought indices and the onset date of the growing season. Subsets of these indices were used to monitor and predict annual expected grassland biomass. Independent field-based biomass production data available from two Sandhills locations were used for validation of the EEP model. The EB was related to field-based biomass production (R2 = 0.66 and 0.57) and regional rangeland productivity statistics of the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) dataset. The Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), the 3- and 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), which represented moisture conditions during May, June and July, explained the majority of the interannual biomass variability in this grassland system (three-month ESI explained roughly 72% of the interannual biomass variability). A new model was developed to use drought indices from early in the growing season to predict the total EB for the whole growing season. This unique approach considers only climate-related drought signal on productivity. The capability to estimate annual EB by the end of May will potentially enable land managers to make informed decisions about stocking rates, hay purchase needs, and other management issues early in the season, minimizing their potential drought losses.

Timely crop cover maps with sufficient resolution are important components to various environmental planning and research applications. Through the modification and use of a previously developed crop classification model (CCM), which was originally developed to generate historical annual crop cover maps, we hypothesized that such crop cover maps could be generated rapidly during the growing season. Through a process of incrementally removing weekly and monthly independent variables from the CCM and implementing a 'two model mapping' approach, we found it viable to generate conterminous United States-wide rapid crop cover maps at a resolution of 250 m for the current year by the month of September. In this approach, we divided the CCM model into one 'crop type model' to handle the classification of nine specific crops and a second, binary model to classify the presence or absence of 'other' crops. Under the two model mapping approach, the training errors were 0.8% and 1.5% for the crop type and binary model, respectively, while test errors were 5.5% and 6.4%, respectively. With spatial mapping accuracies for annual maps reaching upwards of 70%, this approach demonstrated a strong potential for generating rapid crop cover maps by the 1st of September.

Integrating spatially explicit biogeophysical and remotely sensed data into regression-tree models enables the spatial extrapolation of training data over large geographic spaces, enhancing a more complete understanding of broad-scale ecosystem processes. This data release presents maps of estimates of annual gross primary production (GPP) and annual ecosystem respiration (RE) that were derived from weekly summaries of gross photosynthesis (Pg) and ecosytem respiration (Re). To conduct this study we used carbon data from flux towers that are scattered strategically across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We also calculate and present a map of average annual net ecosystem production (NEP). We present and analyze carbon flux dynamics in the CONUS to better understand how drought affects GPP, RE, and NEP. Our study experienced correlation coefficients (r) greater than or equal to 0.94 between training and estimated data for both GPP and RE. We conclude that this modeling method effectively measures carbon dynamics through time and allows the exploration of impacts of meteorological anomalies and vegetation types on carbon dynamics.

Data fused from distinct but complementary satellite sensors mitigate tradeoffs that researchers make when selecting between spatial and temporal resolutions of remotely sensed data. We integrated data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra satellite and the Operational Land Imager sensor aboard the Landsat 8 satellite into four regression-tree models and applied those data to a mapping application. This application produced downscaled maps that utilize the 30-m spatial resolution of Landsat in conjunction with daily acquisitions of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) that are composited and temporally smoothed. We produced four weekly, atmospherically corrected, and nearly cloud-free, downscaled 30-m synthetic MODIS NDVI predictions (maps) built from these models. Model results were strong with R2 values ranging from 0.74 to 0.85. The correlation coefficients (r ≥ 0.89) were strong for all predictions when compared to corresponding original MODIS NDVI data. Downscaled products incorporated into independently developed sagebrush ecosystem models yielded mixed results. The visual quality of the downscaled 30-m synthetic MODIS NDVI predictions were remarkable when compared to the original 250-m MODIS NDVI. These 30-m maps improve knowledge of dynamic rangeland seasonal processes in the central Great Basin, United States, and provide land managers improved resource maps.

Integrating spatially explicit biogeophysical and remotely sensed data into regression-tree models enables the spatial extrapolation of training data over large geographic spaces, allowing a better understanding of broad-scale ecosystem processes. The current study presents annual gross primary production GPP and annual ecosystem respiration RE for 2000–2013 in several short-statured vegetation types using carbon flux data from towers that are located strategically across the conterminous United States CONUS. We calculate carbon fluxes annual net ecosystem production [NEP] for each year in our study period, which includes 2012 when drought and higher-than-normal temperatures influence vegetation productivity in large parts of the study area. We present and analyse carbon flux dynamics in the CONUS to better understand how drought affects GPP, RE, and NEP. Model accuracy metrics show strong correlation coefficients rr ≥ 94% between training and estimated data for both GPP and RE. Overall, average annual GPP, RE, and NEP are relatively constant throughout the study period except during 2012 when almost 60% less carbon is sequestered than normal. These results allow us to conclude that this modelling method effectively estimates carbon dynamics through time and allows the exploration of impacts of meteorological anomalies and vegetation types on carbon dynamics.

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative is a new end-to-end capability to continuously track and characterize changes in land cover, use, and condition to better support research and applications relevant to resource management and environmental change. Among the LCMAP product suite are annual land cover maps that will be available to the public. This paper describes an approach to optimize the selection of training and auxiliary data for deriving the thematic land cover maps based on all available clear observations from Landsats 4–8. Training data were selected from map products of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Land Cover Trends project. The Random Forest classifier was applied for different classification scenarios based on the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. We found that extracting training data proportionally to the occurrence of land cover classes was superior to an equal distribution of training data per class, and suggest using a total of 20,000 training pixels to classify an area about the size of a Landsat scene. The problem of unbalanced training data was alleviated by extracting a minimum of 600 training pixels and a maximum of 8000 training pixels per class. We additionally explored removing outliers contained within the training data based on their spectral and spatial criteria, but observed no significant improvement in classification results. We also tested the importance of different types of auxiliary data that were available for the conterminous United States, including: (a) five variables used by the National Land Cover Database, (b) three variables from the cloud screening “Function of mask” (Fmask) statistics, and (c) two variables from the change detection results of CCDC. We found that auxiliary variables such as a Digital Elevation Model and its derivatives (aspect, position index, and slope), potential wetland index, water probability, snow probability, and cloud probability improved the accuracy of land cover classification. Compared to the original strategy of the CCDC algorithm (500 pixels per class), the use of the optimal strategy improved the classification accuracies substantially (15-percentage point increase in overall accuracy and 4-percentage point increase in minimum accuracy).

This paper presents the methodology and results of two ecological-based net ecosystem production (NEP) regression tree models capable of up scaling measurements made at various flux tower sites throughout the U.S. Great Plains. Separate grassland and cropland NEP regression tree models were trained using various remote sensing data and other biogeophysical data, along with 15 flux towers contributing to the grassland model and 15 flux towers for the cropland model. The models yielded weekly mean daily grassland and cropland NEP maps of the U.S. Great Plains at 250 m resolution for 2000–2008. The grassland and cropland NEP maps were spatially summarized and statistically compared. The results of this study indicate that grassland and cropland ecosystems generally performed as weak net carbon (C) sinks, absorbing more C from the atmosphere than they released from 2000 to 2008. Grasslands demonstrated higher carbon sink potential (139 g C·m−2·year−1) than non-irrigated croplands. A closer look into the weekly time series reveals the C fluctuation through time and space for each land cover type.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has begun the development of operational, 30-m resolution annual thematic land cover data to meet the needs of a variety of land cover data users. The Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm is being evaluated as the likely methodology following early trials. Data for training and testing of CCDC thematic maps have been provided by the USGS Land Cover Trends (LC Trends) project, which offers sample-based, manually classified thematic land cover data at 2755 probabilistically located sample blocks across the conterminous United States. These samples represent a high quality, well distributed source of data to train the Random Forest classifier invoked by CCDC. We evaluated the suitability of LC Trends data to train the classifier by assessing the agreement of annual land cover maps output from CCDC with output from the LC Trends project within 14 Landsat path/row locations across the conterminous United States. We used a small subset of circa 2000 data from the LC Trends project to train the classifier, reserving the remaining Trends data from 2000, and incorporating LC Trends data from 1992, to evaluate measures of agreement across time, space, and thematic classes, and to characterize disagreement. Overall agreement ranged from 75% to 98% across the path/rows, and results were largely consistent across time. Land cover types that were well represented in the training data tended to have higher rates of agreement between LC Trends and CCDC outputs. Characteristics of disagreement are being used to improve the use of LC Trends data as a continued source of training information for operational production of annual land cover maps.

The albedo change caused by fires and the subsequent succession is spatially heterogeneous, leading to the need to assess the spatiotemporal variation of surface shortwave forcing (SSF) as a component to quantify the climate impacts of high-latitude fires. We used an image reconstruction approach to compare postfire albedo with the albedo assuming that no fires had occurred. Combining the fire-caused albedo change from the 2001-2010 fires in interior Alaska and the monthly surface incoming solar radiation, we examined the spatiotemporal variation of SSF in the early successional stage of approximately 10 years. Our results showed that although postfire albedo generally increased in fall, winter, and spring, some burned areas could show an albedo decrease during these seasons. In summer, the albedo increased for several years and then declined again. The spring SSF distribution did not show a latitudinal decrease from south to north as previously reported. The results also indicated that although the SSF is usually largely negative in the early successional years, it may not be significant during the first postfire year. The annual 2005-2010 SSF for the 2004 fire scars was -1.30, -4.40, -3.31, -4.00, -3.42, and -2.47 W.m(-2), respectively. The integrated annual SSF map showed significant spatial variation, with a mean of -3.15 W.m(-2), a standard deviation of 3.26 watts per square metre (W.m(-2)), and 16% of burned areas having positive SSF. Our results suggest that boreal deciduous fires would be less positive for climate change than boreal evergreen fires. Future research is needed to comprehensively investigate the spatiotemporal radiative and nonradiative forcings to determine the effect of boreal fires on the climate.

Boreal fires can cool the climate; however, this conclusion came from individual fires and may not represent the whole story. We hypothesize that the climatic impact of boreal fires depends on local landscape heterogeneity such as burn severity, prefire vegetation type, and soil properties. To test this hypothesis, spatially explicit emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and their resulting radiative forcing are required as an important and necessary component towards a full assessment. In this study, we integrated remote sensing (Landsat and MODIS) and models (carbon consumption model, emission factors model, and radiative forcing model) to calculate the carbon consumption, GHGs and aerosol emissions, and their radiative forcing of 2001–2010 fires at 30 m resolution in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska. Total carbon consumption showed significant spatial variation, with a mean of 2,615 g C m−2 and a standard deviation of 2,589 g C m−2. The carbon consumption led to different amounts of GHGs and aerosol emissions, ranging from 593.26 Tg (CO2) to 0.16 Tg (N2O). When converted to equivalent CO2 based on global warming potential metric, the maximum 20 years equivalent CO2 was black carbon (713.77 Tg), and the lowest 20 years equivalent CO2 was organic carbon (−583.13 Tg). The resulting radiative forcing also showed significant spatial variation: CO2, CH4, and N2O can cause a 20-year mean radiative forcing of 7.41 W m−2 with a standard deviation of 2.87 W m−2. This emission forcing heterogeneity indicates that different boreal fires have different climatic impacts. When considering the spatial variation of other forcings, such as surface shortwave forcing, we may conclude that some boreal fires, especially boreal deciduous fires, can warm the climate.

Terrestrial carbon sequestration potential is widely considered as a realistic option for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, this potential may be threatened by global changes including climate, land use and management changes such as increased corn stover harvesting for rising production of cellulosic biofuel. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) at regional or global scale. This study simulated the corn production and spatiotemporal changes of SOC in the U.S. Temperate Prairies, which covers over one-third of the U.S. corn acreage, using a biogeochemical model with multiple climate and land-use change projections. The corn production (either grain yield or stover biomass) could reach 88.7–104.7 TgC as of 2050, 70–101% increase when compared to the base year of 2010. A removal of 50% stover at the regional scale could be a reasonable cap in view of maintaining SOC content and soil fertility especially in the beginning years. The projected SOC dynamics indicated that the average carbon sequestration potential across the entire region may vary from 12.7 to 19.6 g C/m2/yr (i.e., 6.6–10.2 g TgC/yr). This study not only helps understand SOC dynamics but also provides decision support for sustainable biofuel development.