Central Asian Economies (CAEs) have diverse exchange rate policies. They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception. High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies towards partial dollarization. Monetary authorities in CAEs, (already have a challenge of maintaining monetary policy autonomy) have a gigantic task of price stability and stopping the spread of dollarization. This study is directed towards assessing the drivers and the determinants of foreign exchange market pressure in CAEs. The results, based on panel data analysis and the System GMM model, have provided useful insights about the exchange market pressure determinants particularly USD, Euro, Ruble, and Renminbi. The results show that China and Russia exchange market pressure has a negative effect on the exchange market pressure of CAEs. While the dollar index shows a positive impact on the exchange market pressure of CAEs. Overall, the findings imply that China and Russia currency appreciation results in a trade deficit across CAEs. The policy implication suggests that the floating exchange rate regime (inflation targeting regime) is not in favor of CAEs, and they must use managed-float to reduce their trade deficits.

After abandoning Bretton Wood, the foreign exchange market has been dominated by three types of economies: export-oriented economies (China and other Asian countries), commodity economies (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and oil exporting nations) and reserve-currency economies (US, EU, UK, and Swiss). As a result, the asymmetric development of the foreign exchange market has reduced the monetary and fiscal space for PSIDS, which face structural challenges such as a low population base, import dependence, aid dependency, climate risk, and political uncertainty. The 'Exchange Market Pressure Index' (EMPI) for Fiji is developed in this article to quantify the pressure on the exchange rate and monetary authorities' responses to micromanaging balance sheet impacts. The calculated EMPI accurately reflects four instances of financial distress in Fiji, including significant exchange market pressure in response to growing trade deficits and external debt, the global financial crisis's contagion effect, and political uncertainty. Our EMP Index's robustness is attributed in part to the employment of a dynamic time series estimate method, a time-varying weighing scheme, and a high-frequency monthly dataset.

The valuation effects on international investment position induced by the exchange rate volatility are not uniform or easily manageable in small and vulnerable economies when compared with larger developing or developed countries. To investigate the underlying dynamics, we developed a foreign currency exposure index over the period 2006–2019. The positive reading of the index suggests that though Fiji has a high net negative international investment position (90% of its GDP), it does not pose any serious risk. To ascertain determinants of Fijiʼs exposure index, we applied fully modified ordinary least square and autoregressive distributed lag bounds test. We have compared both estimates for consistency. Our findings suggest that the underlying determinants of Fijiʼs currency exposure are foreign debt, trade openness and exchange rate. This article bridges the gap in the literature on currency exposure risks in small island developing states and is the first study of its kind for the Pacific region.

The previous studies of exports performance in Fiji were carried out at the aggregate level. We conduct a disaggregated analysis of exports of three major products, namely, sugar, tourism, and gold. This analysis is useful for developing sector-based export promotion policies. The long run as well as dynamic export demand functions are estimated at the aggregate and disaggregate levels. The results identify a number of factors such as trading partner income, relative prices, productivity shocks, natural disasters, political disturbances, and the exchange rate that affect the export demand for sugar, tourism, and gold, though not in the same way. For instance, tourism and sugar enjoy the highest income elasticity. Sugar export is adversely affected by natural calamities and political upheavals. The political upheavals also affect tourism adversely in Fiji. The exchange rate affects the export of sugar more than others. The idea that devaluation will promote exports in Fiji needs careful investigation because results show that this will happen with a high cost, i.e. 5% nominal devaluation will be required to increase real exports by 1%.

The paper projects aggregate populations of six Pacific Island countries in both pre- and post-COVID19 scenarios using a Cohort Component Method for the period 2020-2060. It uses baseline indicators resembling China and Italy's experiences and finds that Pacific countries could experience a fatality rate between 5 and 20% due to the pandemic. It also finds that most Pacific Island countries would experience higher fatalities in the older age groups, consistent with what is being witnessed in other countries around the world. The analysis also shows that while the risk escalates for people over 50 years onward in all other sample countries, in Fiji, those in the age range of 60 years or more are at higher risk. The findings also indicate that for all countries, the fatality rate for 80 years and older is about 50%. The population projections show that Fiji will be most impacted, while others will experience around 2% initial population decline. The convergence to baseline is found to be slow (except for Tonga) in most Pacific countries. Consequently, the paper suggests a cautious approach in dealing with the current crisis.

For the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS), climate change will greatly exacerbate their vulnerability. The PSIDS have a high ranking in the Climate Risk Index and the World Risk Index. Financial losses due to climate-induced disasters, in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), are also high in the Pacific region. While climate risk insurance solutions could play a key role in the efficient distribution of recovery resources, there are many challenges to their successful implementation. Effective climate risk insurance products for the vulnerable sections of these societies are almost non-existent in this part of the world. Among the worst climate-induced disasters to affect the PSIDS are those related to cyclones and floods. These not only adversely impact the welfare of the households affected by these disasters, but they lower the long-term development potential of the countries involved. There is also evidence to suggest that climate-induced disasters are increasing in frequency and intensity over time due to climate change. It is against this background that an inquiry into the necessity for climate risk insurance products in the context of PSIDS should take place. This paper gives a comprehensive review of the literature addressing climate risk insurance as a risk mitigation or climate adaptation tool for managing the climate-induced financial vulnerabilities in the PSIDS. The paper explores the affordability of climate risk insurance, particularly among the vulnerable sections of society, and discusses the challenges of implementing an appropriate climate risk insurance model in the region. Finally, it examines recent climate risk insurance initiatives that have been attempted by multilateral agencies, such as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations' Pacific Financial Inclusion Practice (UNCDF), Pacific Insurance and Climate Adaptation Programme (PICAP), and respective local governments.

The COVID19 global pandemic has seriously disturbed Fiji, its people and the economy. Consequently, crisis management has been highly challenging in this small and vulnerable economy. Although the number of positive cases was low, the economic impact of COVID19 has been significant. In this paper, we identify several crisis management issues to better deal with the pandemic. These discussions can potentially improve Fiji’s response strategies and initiatives to safeguard public health and economic activity. Our evaluation indicates room for learning and innovation in Fiji’s health care services to ensure resilience and effective response mechanisms. The suggestions are not only useful for Fiji but also for other similar economies in the region. These suggestive strategies can work as proactive measures to combat second wave impact yet to come.

Purpose This paper aims to assess the equilibrium house price in the city of Suva (Fiji) and to analyse the house price bubble in the Fiji housing market. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts a time series approach to determine the presence of house price bubbles in Fiji over the period from 1988 to 2018. Findings The findings suggest that real income, land cost, building material price, inflation rate, volatility, household size and wealth have a positive impact on house prices, whereas user cost of capital and political disturbances have a negative impact. The findings further indicate that the Fijis’ housing market does not constitute any house price bubble. Practical implications This paper draws policy implications for a small developing state (Fiji) and other similar economies. Originality/value The price bubble in the Fiji housing market is analysed for the first time. This paper develops a comprehensive empirical approach to assess the equilibrium-housing price in Fiji.

This article analyses the nexus between exports, established indicators of governance, and economic growth in Fiji. It finds that exports and governance co-operate to promote economic growth. The interplay between these variables is also meaningful. The findings imply that Fiji needs to improve export productivity and quality of institutional governance to ensure persistent rates of economic growth. Other variables such as human capital, private investment, foreign aid, and policy environment are also growth-enhancing in this small and vulnerable economy.

While a decline in the market value of sovereign assets (below a benchmark level of liabilities) can trigger sovereign distress/default risk, volatility in sovereign assets can increase the risk premium on domestic debt and credit spread on external debt. These can escalate the probability of debt default. Therefore, measuring the probability and distance to debt distress associated with sovereign positions is important for assessing the macro-financial risks of an aggregate economy. This paper presents an application of the Contingent Claim Approach (CCA) for measuring the implied asset value and its volatility for the case of Fiji. The CCA captures non-linear changes to sovereign assets and liabilities that are hardly captured by other macroeconomic variables. Our consistent empirical findings indicate no sovereign debt distress for Fiji. Unavailability of partial data on the certain composition of sovereign assets and liabilities is a limitation, but our results are consistent and useful guide to debt policy in Fiji. It is also useful for future research on debt sustainability in other similar smaller developing economies.