BACKGROUND:Early, accurate prediction of survival is central to management of patients with paracetamol-induced acute liver failure to identify those needing emergency liver transplantation. Current prognostic tools are confounded by recent improvements in outcome independent of emergency liver transplantation, and constrained by static binary outcome prediction. We aimed to develop a simple prognostic tool to reflect current outcomes and generate a dynamic updated estimation of risk of death. METHODS:Patients with paracetamol-induced acute liver failure managed at intensive care units in the UK (London, Birmingham, and Edinburgh) and Denmark (Copenhagen) were studied. We developed prognostic models, excluding patients who underwent transplantation, using Cox proportional hazards in a derivation dataset, and tested in initial and recent external validation datasets. Mortality was estimated in patients who had emergency liver transplantation. Model discrimination was assessed using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration by root mean square error (RMSE). Admission (day 1) variables of age, Glasgow coma scale, arterial pH and lactate, creatinine, international normalised ratio (INR), and cardiovascular failure were used to derive an initial predictive model, with a second (day 2) model including additional changes in INR and lactate. FINDINGS:We developed and validated new high-performance statistical models to support decision making in patients with paracetamol-induced acute liver failure. Applied to the derivation dataset (n=350), the AUROC for 30-day survival was 0·92 (95% CI 0·88-0·96) using the day 1 model and 0·93 (0·88-0·97) using the day 2 model. In the initial validation dataset (n=150), the AUROC for 30-day survival was 0·89 (0·84-0·95) using the day 1 model and 0·90 (0·85-0·95) using the day 2 model. Assessment of calibration using RMSE in prediction of 30-day survival gave values of 0·1642 for the day 1 model and 0·0626 for the day 2 model. In the external validation dataset (n=412), the AUROC for 30-day survival was 0·91 (0·87-0·94) using the day 1 model and 0·91 (0·88-0·95) using the day 2 model, and assessment of calibration using RMSE gave values of 0·079 for the day 1 model and 0·107 for the day 2 model. Applied to patients who underwent emergency liver transplantation (n=116), median predicted 30-day survival was 51% (95% CI 33-85). INTERPRETATION:The models developed here show very good discrimination and calibration, confirmed in independent datasets, and suggest that many patients undergoing transplantation based on existing criteria might have survived with medical management alone. The role and indications for emergency liver transplantation in paracetamol-induced acute liver failure require re-evaluation. FUNDING:Foundation for Liver Research.

BACKGROUND & AIMS:During the past decade, survival has increased among patients admitted to general intensive care units, but it is not clear if it has increased for patients admitted with cirrhosis and organ failure. The chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) recently was developed as an adaptation to the SOFA to predict outcomes of patients, but requires validation. We investigated changes in outcomes of patients with cirrhosis and organ failure since 2000, compared the abilities of SOFA and CLIF-SOFA to predict patient survival, and validated the CLIF-SOFA system.METHODS:In a retrospective study, we collected data from 971 patients (median age, 52 y; age range, 16-90 y; 62% male) with cirrhosis (54% alcohol associated, 12% viral, and 34% other causes). The patients were admitted under emergency conditions from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010, to a liver intensive therapy unit in the United Kingdom. Patient survival while in the hospital was compared with measures of illness severity, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores, SOFA scores, and CLIF-SOFA scores.RESULTS:Patients had a median APACHE II score of 21 (range, 5-50) and a median MELD score of 23 (range, 6-40). The median APACHE II score at admission decreased from 23 to 22 over the study period (P < .001), whereas the median MELD score at admission decreased from 23 to 18 (P < .001). Overall survival until hospital discharge was 51%; this value increased from 40% in 2000 to 63% in 2010 (P < .001). The unadjusted odds ratio for change in mortality/year was 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.91; P < .001). The APACHE II score adjusted odds ratio for mortality was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.93; P < .001). The etiology of cirrhosis was not associated with a significant difference in survival. CLIF-SOFA and SOFA scores at the time of admission predicted patient survival with area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) values of 0.813 and 0.799, respectively; the scores at 48 hours after admission predicted survival with AUROC values of 0.853 and 0.840, and scores after 1 week predicted survival with AUROC values of 0.842 and 0.844, respectively. These AUROC values were higher than those obtained from APACHE II or MELD scores.CONCLUSIONS:The proportion of patients with cirrhosis who survived after admission to intensive care increased from 2000 to 2010. SOFA and CLIF-SOFA scores during the first week of critical care appear to have similar abilities to predict patient survival.

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is associated with muscle wasting, reduced exercise tolerance and aerobic capacity (AC). Measures of AC determined with cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) may predict survival after liver transplantation (LT), but the relationship with nontransplant outcomes is uncertain. In patients assessed for LT, we examined the relationship of CPET AC parameters with the severity of liver disease, nutritional state, and survival with and without LT. Patients assessed for elective first LT who underwent CPET and an anthropometric assessment at a single center were studied. CPET-derived measures of AC that were evaluated included the peak oxygen consumption (VO2 peak) and the anaerobic threshold (AT). Three hundred ninety-nine patients underwent CPET, and 223 underwent LT; 45% of the patients had a VO2 peak < 50% of the predicted value, and 31% had an AT < 9 mL/kg/minute. The VO2 peak and AT values correlated with the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, but they more closely correlated with serum sodium and albumin levels. The handgrip strength correlated strongly with the VO2 peak. Patients with impaired AC had prolonged hospitalization after LT, and nonsurvivors had lower AT values than survivors 1 year after transplantation (P < 0.05); this was significant in a multivariate analysis. One hundred seventy-six patients did not undergo LT; the 1-year mortality rate was 34.6%. The AT (P < 0.05) and VO2 peak values (P < 0.001) were lower for nonsurvivors. In a multivariate analysis, AT was independently associated with nonsurvival. In conclusion, AC was markedly impaired in many patients with CLD. In patients who did not undergo transplantation, impaired AT was predictive of mortality, and in patients undergoing LT, it was related to postoperative hospitalization and survival. AC should be evaluated as a modifiable factor for improving patient survival whether or not LT is anticipated.

BACKGROUND:Current assumptions rely on intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) being uniform across the abdominal cavity. The abdominal contents are, however, a heterogeneous mix of solid, liquid and gas, and pressure transmission may not be uniform. The current study examines the upper and lower IAP following liver transplantation.METHODS:IAP was measured directly via intra-peritoneal catheters placed at the liver and outside the bladder. Compartmental pressure data were recorded at 10-min intervals for up to 72 h following surgery, and the effect of intermittent posture change on compartmental pressures was also studied. Pelvic intra-peritoneal pressure was compared to intra-bladder pressure measured via a FoleyManometer.RESULTS:A significant variation in upper and lower IAP of 18% was observed with a range of differences of 0 to 16 mmHg. A sustained difference in inter-compartmental pressure of 4 mmHg or more was present for 23% of the study time. Head-up positioning at 30° provided a protective effect on upper intra-abdominal pressure, resulting in a significant reduction in all patients. There was excellent agreement between intra-bladder and pelvic pressure.CONCLUSIONS:A clinically significant variation in inter-compartmental pressure exists following liver transplantation, which can be manipulated by changes to body position. The existence of regional pressure differences suggests that IAP monitoring at the bladder alone may under-diagnose intra-abdominal hypertension and abdominal compartment syndrome in these patients. The upper and lower abdomen may need to be considered as separate entities in certain conditions.

Background. Paracetamol overdose can cause acute kidney injury (AKI) independent of its hepatotoxic effects. We aimed to determine the prevalence of AKI (AKI Network definition) in those with paracetamol-induced hepatotoxicity, identify factors associated with development, assess impact on the outcomes of patient survival and length of stay and determine the proportion of patients recovering renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate > 60 mL/min) by the time of hospital discharge or transfer out.Methods. Between 2000 and 2007, patients admitted to a tertiary referral liver intensive therapy unit (LITU) with paracetamol-induced hepatotoxicity were identified from a prospectively maintained database and evaluated.Results. Those receiving a liver transplant were excluded (n = 54), leaving 302 patients. Renal function remained normal in 21%, the remainder developing AKI (Stages 1-8%, 2-6% and 3-65%). Vasopressor requirement, mechanical ventilation, higher admission phosphate and lower sodium levels along with a higher Day 3 lactate and lower haematocrit were associated with AKI. In survivors with AKI, 51% had recovery of renal function, while 7% remained dialysis dependant although none required it chronically. Overall, there was 25% mortality, all having Stage 3 AKI but AKI was only a univariate not multivariate predictor of reduced patient survival. AKI independently predicted longer length of stay.Conclusions. AKI is very common in critically ill patients with paracetamol-induced hepatotoxicity requiring LITU admission. Although outcomes are poorer with AKI than with normal renal function, they are better than those found in other intensive therapy unit populations. Gradual recovery of renal function is seen in all patients.

Organ allocation based on Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) resulted in decreased waiting list mortality in the United States. However, reports suggest an increase in resource utilization as a consequence of this. The aim of this study is to assess the correlation of MELD at transplant with post-liver transplant (LT) intensive care unit (ICU) costs. We assessed clinical and demographic variables of 402 adult patients who underwent LT at King's College Hospital, London, UK, between January 2000 and December 2003. ICU cost calculations were based on the therapeutic intervention scoring system (TISS). Graft quality was assessed using the donor risk index (DRI). Patients with a MELD score > 24 had significantly longer post-LT ICU stay (P < 0.0001) and total post-LT hospital stay (P = 0.008). In addition, they had significantly increased TISS scores, ICU cost, and need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) (P < 0.001). MELD score (by point) and MELD > 24 was associated with prolonged ICU stay (P = 0.004 and P = 0.005, respectively). On univariate analysis, etiology of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), repeat LT, Budd-Chiari syndrome, and refractory ascites were associated with prolonged ICU stay. Using multivariate analysis, MELD > 24, refractory ascites, ALD and Budd-Chiari syndrome were associated with prolonged ICU stay. There was no association between using grafts with higher DRI and longer ICU stay, need for RRT, increased cost, or hospital survival on univariate analyses (P = not significant). Use of MELD as a method of organ allocation results in significant increase in ICU cost after LT. Using TISS as surrogate marker for ICU costs reveals that the cost implications are related to the need for RRT and prolonged ICU stay.

Advanced haemodynamic monitoring via transpulmonary thermodilution (TPTD) devices has gained popularity in recent years. The intrathoracic blood volume index (ITBVI) and the global end-diastolic blood volume index (GEDVI) calculated by single indicator TPTD devices have been shown to reliably estimate cardiac preload. The normal range of values for ITBVI is provided by the manufacturers. Evidence is now emerging that certain clinical scenarios can lead to increased ITBVI values. We report two cases of persistently high ITBVI in patients with hepatic cirrhosis complicated by hepatopulmonary syndrome.

Objectives:To determine what physiological and biochemical factors predict development of bacteremia in nontransplanted patients with acute on chronic liver failure and, on diagnosis of bacteremia, what is the natural history of bacteremic patients versus control subjects (acute on chronic liver failure). Interventions:None. Design:Retrospective analysis of data collected prospectively and entered into a dedicated physiology database. Setting:Specialist liver intensive therapy unit. Patients:Critically ill non-transplanted patients with acute on chronic liver failure admitted between January 2003 and July 2005. Measurements and Main Results:One hundred eighty-four patients were defined with acute on chronic liver failure; 67 (36%) had bacteremia. One hundred seventeen (64%) patients did not (acute on chronic liver failure). Fifty-eight percent of isolates were Gram-negative organisms, 36% were Gram-positives, and 6% fungemia. Median time to first bacteremia was 8 days (range, 3–12 days). On admission (univariate), bacteremic patients had significantly higher Modified End Stage Liver Disease scores (27 vs. 24, p = .037), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores (23 vs. 21, p = .049), and greater degrees of encephalopathy (Glasgow Coma Scale score 10 vs. 12, p = .001). During their liver intensive therapy unit course, bacteremic patients had significantly greater requirements for renal replacement therapy (64% vs. 49%, p = .043), mechanical ventilation (88% vs. 68%, p = .002), and a longer median liver intensive therapy unit stay (16 vs. 5 days, p < .001). Survival to hospital discharge was worse in the bacteremic group (25% vs. 56%, p < .001). Multivariate analysis (logistic regression) was performed separately modeling with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Modified End Stage Liver Disease. In the first model, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (odds ratio 1.24) and bacteremia (2.24) were independent predictors of mortality. In the later model, Modified End Stage Liver Disease (odds ratio, 1.06), requirement for renal replacement therapy (3.08), Glasgow Coma Scale (0.72), and bacteremia (2.30) were significant. Both models performed similarly (Modified End Stage Liver Disease area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.864; Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, 0.862). Conclusions:In nontransplanted patients with acute on chronic liver failure, bacteremia was associated with increased severity of illness on admission, greater requirements for organ support, and independently adversely impacted on survival. Higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Modified End Stage Liver Disease scores were also independently predictive of mortality.

To determine what physiological and biochemical factors predict development of bacteraemia and mortality in patients with acute liver failure (ALF).

Liver InternationalVolume 28, Issue 3 p. 415-417 Variation in blood ammonia concentration with site of measurement and evidence of brain and muscle uptake in patients with acute liver failure William Bernal, William Bernal Liver Intensive Therapy Unit, Institute of Liver Studies, Kings College Hospital, Denmark Hill, London SE5 9RS, UKSearch for more papers by this authorGeorg Auzinger, Georg Auzinger Liver Intensive Therapy Unit, Institute of Liver Studies, Kings College Hospital, Denmark Hill, London SE5 9RS, UKSearch for more papers by this authorElizabeth Sizer, Elizabeth Sizer Liver Intensive Therapy Unit, Institute of Liver Studies, Kings College Hospital, Denmark Hill, London SE5 9RS, UKSearch for more papers by this authorJulia Wendon, Julia Wendon Liver Intensive Therapy Unit, Institute of Liver Studies, Kings College Hospital, Denmark Hill, London SE5 9RS, UKSearch for more papers by this author William Bernal, William Bernal Liver Intensive Therapy Unit, Institute of Liver Studies, Kings College Hospital, Denmark Hill, London SE5 9RS, UKSearch for more papers by this authorGeorg Auzinger, Georg Auzinger Liver Intensive Therapy Unit, Institute of Liver Studies, Kings College Hospital, Denmark Hill, London SE5 9RS, UKSearch for more papers by this authorElizabeth Sizer, Elizabeth Sizer Liver Intensive Therapy Unit, Institute of Liver Studies, Kings College Hospital, Denmark Hill, London SE5 9RS, UKSearch for more papers by this authorJulia Wendon, Julia Wendon Liver Intensive Therapy Unit, Institute of Liver Studies, Kings College Hospital, Denmark Hill, London SE5 9RS, UKSearch for more papers by this author First published: 15 February 2008 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1478-3231.2007.01636.xCitations: 3 Correspondence Dr William Bernal, Consultant in Liver Intensive Care Medicine, Liver Intensive Therapy Unit, Institute of Liver Studies, Kings College Hospital, Denmark Hill, London SE5 9RS, UKTel: +44 2032994458Fax: +44 2032992899e-mail [email protected] Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL References 1 Bhatia V, Singh R, Acharya SK. Predictive value of arterial ammonia for complications and outcome in acute liver failure. Gut 2006; 55: 98– 104. 2 Clemmesen JO, Larsen FS, Kondrup J, Hansen BA, Ott P. Cerebral herniation in patients with acute liver failure is correlated with arterial ammonia concentration. Hepatology 1999; 29: 648– 53. 3 Chatauret N, Butterworth R. Effects of liver failure on inter-organ trafficking of ammonia: implications for the treatment of hepatic encephalopathy. J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2004; 19: S219– 23. 4 Jalan R, Olde Damink SW, Hayes PC, Deutz NE, Lee A. Pathogenesis of intracranial hypertension in acute liver failure: inflammation, ammonia and cerebral blood flow. J Hepatol 2004; 41: 613– 20. 5 Rose C, Michalak A, Rao KV, Quack G, Kircheis G, Butterworth RF. l-ornithine-l-aspartate lowers plasma and cerebrospinal fluid ammonia and prevents brain edema in rats with acute liver failure. Hepatology 1999; 30: 636– 40. Citing Literature Volume28, Issue3March 2008Pages 415-417 ReferencesRelatedInformation