This chapter shows how China's welfare state is partially responsible for its imbalanced economic growth model, characterised by an overreliance on export-led manufacturing industries and the laggard development of the service economy. It argues that the expansive Chinese pension system facilitates the expansion of the manufacturing sector by subsidising the training of workers with industrial specific skills, as this system is designed to do, but it has an unintended consequence. The political-economic logic has shown that China's pension system is dictated by the need of the Chinese economy. Rebalancing the Chinese economy, the overriding priority in Chinese government's post-crisis macroeconomic policy, therefore requires adjustments to the Chinese pension system. The chapter examines the structure of the Chinese economy through the lens of this study's political-economic framework. China's …

Financial crises damage output and social cohesion. Lack of timely and accurate data makes it more difficult to assess risks’ build up. Information gaps can also limit the ability to respond to crises. This calls for better data to monitor economic and financial risks. Several measures taken by the international official statistics community address information needs. These include efforts to fill the data gaps, ensure policy relevance of key indicators, and measure the “unmeasured” complex dimensions of economy and society. Harnessing new data sources and promoting innovation in statistical production processes are key to improving timeliness and adequacy of statistical information services. Nowcasting and predictive analytics can enhance the provision of early warnings about crises.

The volume collects the essays presented at the 15th Workshop on Public Finance organised by Banca d'Italia in Perugia from 4 to 6 April 2013. The workshop focused on the link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic imbalances and comprised four sessions. The first session concentrated on the interaction between fiscal policy and macroeconomic imbalances. The second session dealt with the specific problems of the euro area, where insufficient attention to macroeconomic developments contributed to increase fiscal and financial tensions. The third session scrutinized fiscal policy with an eye to the inequalities of emerging economies and resource-rich countries. The last session analysed the experiences so far and the potential prescriptions about the use of fiscal tools in addressing macroeconomic problems.

This paper assesses the effects of fiscal consolidations associated with public debt reduction on medium-term output growth during periods of private debt deleveraging. The analysis covers 107 countries and 79 episodes of public debt reduction driven by discretionary fiscal adjustments during 1980–2012. It shows that expenditure-based, front-loaded fiscal adjustments can dampen growth when there are credit supply restrictions. Instead, fiscal adjustments that are gradual and rely on a mix of revenue and expenditure measures can support output expansion, while reducing public debt. In this context, protecting public investment is critical for medium-term growth, as is the implementation of supply-side, productivity-enhancing reforms.

This paper assesses the determinants of the duration of debt reduction episodes in a large sample of countries over the last three decades using a survival model. Results show that increases in the primary balances are the main source of debt reduction. Expenditure‐based fiscal adjustments are key for reducing the length of debt consolidation spells, including in the aftermath of financial crises. Political fragmentation and the proximity of elections make debt sustainability more difficult to achieve, while structural reforms that help spur growth decrease the duration of debt reduction. In contrast to previous findings, however, we show that when adjustment needs are large – as in many advanced economies today – fiscal consolidations that rely also on revenue‐enhancing measures are more likely to accelerate debt reduction. We label it as the ‘Rebalancing Adjustment Effect’. This result is particularly strong when countries experience a financial crisis.

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal stress periods, covering public debt default as well as near-default events. The fiscal stress index depends on a parsimonious set of fiscal indicators, aggregated using the approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998). The index is used to assess the build up of fiscal stress over time since the mid-1990s in advanced and emering economies. Fiscal stress has increased recently to record-high levels in advanced countries, reflecting raising solvency risks and financing needs. In emerging economies, risks are lower than in mature economies owing to sounder fiscal fundamentals, but fiscal stress remains higher than before the crisis.

This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011).These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events.Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress.Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures.In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.

Using a panel of 46 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2008, this paper investigates the key determinants of country risk premiums as measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both political and fiscal factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets. Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads, particularly during financial turmoil. Efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries with high initial public debt levels. The composition of fiscal policy also matters as higher public investment lowers spreads as long as the fiscal position remains sustainable and the fiscal deficit does not worsen.

This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events. Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress. Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures. In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.

We use novel spatial econometrics techniques to explore spillovers in the sovereign bond market for 24 emerging economies during 1995–2010. The article extends the previous literature focusing on spillover effects from advanced to emerging economies by analyzing transmission of shocks across emerging markets. After controlling for the impact of global factors, we find strong evidence of spillovers from both sovereign spreads and macroeconomic fundamentals in neighboring emerging economies. In addition to the geographical proximity, the channels of spatial transmission include trade and financial linkages. The results of the article highlight the importance of accounting not only for spillovers from advanced economies to emerging markets but also across emerging markets when analyzing sovereign spreads.

The authors use an ordered logit model to assess the effects of fiscal stimulus packages during episodes of systemic banking crisis in advanced and emerging market countries over the period 1980-2008. The results show that timely countercyclical fiscal measures can help shorten crises by boosting aggregate demand and offsetting the collapse of private investments. Nevertheless, these outcomes are weaker for countries with limited budgetary room and where fiscal expansion is prevented by funding constraints or limited access to markets. The composition of fiscal responses is important: fiscal expansions based on government consumption and income tax cut are more effective in shortening the recession, while a larger share of public investment yields the strongest impact on output growth. These findings suggest a potential trade off between short-run aggregate demand support and medium-term productivity growth objectives. Two stylised facts emerge: i) the fiscal measures enacted by G-20 countries may have curtailed the crisis by up to one year and ii) they may have stimulated post-crisis growth by 1 per cent of GDP compared with the counterfactual scenario of no fiscal stimulus. Results can be larger for emerging market economies than for advanced countries, since the former devoted a greater share of the stimulus to infrastructure, while the latter made greater resort to tax cuts and transfer increases.

The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally ignored nonlinear effects of deficits and debt through some other key determinants of yields, and have been mostly confined to advanced economies. This paper reexamines the impact of fiscal deficits and public debt on long-term interest rates during 1980 - 2008, taking into account a wide range of country-specific factors, for a panel of 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates, with the precise magnitude dependent on initial fiscal, institutional and other structural conditions, as well as spillovers from global financial markets. Taking into account these factors suggests that large fiscal deficits and public debts are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.

This paper analyzes the experience of 99 advanced and developing economies in restoring fiscal sustainability during 1980 - 2008 after banking crises, which led to large accumulation of public debt. It finds that successful debt reductions have relied chiefly on generation of large primary surpluses in post-crisis years through current expenditure cuts. These savings have been accompanied by growth-promoting measures and a supportive monetary policy stance. While these results are consistent with the existing literature, the paper finds that revenue-raising measures increased the likelihood of successful consolidation in countries that faced large adjustment needs after the crisis. This reflects the fall in effectiveness of spending cuts when deficit reduction needs are large independent of initial tax ratios.

This paper shows that increasing government social expenditures can make a substantive contribution to increasing household consumption in China. The paper first undertakes an empirical study of the relationship between the savings rate and social expenditures for a panel of OECD countries and provides illustrative estimates of their implications for China. It then applies a generational accounting framework to Chinese household income survey data. This analysis suggests that a sustained 1 percent of GDP increase in public expenditures, distributed equally across education, health, and pensions, would result in a permanent increase the household consumption ratio of 1¼ percentage points of GDP.

This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy response in 118 episodes of systemic banking crisis in advanced and emerging market countries during 1980-2008. It finds that timely countercyclical fiscal measures contribute to shortening the length of crisis episodes by stimulating aggregate demand. Fiscal expansions that rely mostly on measures to support government consumption are more effective in shortening the crisis duration than those based on public investment or income tax cuts. But these results do not hold for countries with limited fiscal space where fiscal expansions are prevented by funding constraints. The composition of countercyclical fiscal responses matters as well for output recovery after the crisis, with public investment yielding the strongest impact on growth. These results suggest a potential trade-off between short-run aggregate demand support and medium-term productivity growth objectives in fiscal stimulus packages adopted in distress times.

Using panel data from 120 developing countries from 1975 to 2000, this paper explores the direct and indirect channels linking social spending, human capital, and growth in a system of equations. The paper finds that both education and health spending have a positive and significant direct impact on the accumulation of education and health capital, and thus can lead to higher economic growth. The paper also finds that other policy interventions, such as improving governance, reducing excessive budget deficits, and taming inflation, can also be helpful in moving countries toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). As such, higher spending alone is not sufficient to achieve the MDGs.