We test hypotheses that three significant events in the year 2020 impacted U.S. youths’ involvement in crime: (H1) less delinquency due to the coronavirus‐19 (COVID‐19) pandemic and associated constraints to youths’ routine activities and substance use; (H2) more delinquency due to the police killing of George Floyd and ensuing social unrest, particularly among Black youth from communities disproportionately affected by police violence; and (H3) more delinquency due to growing political disaffection, especially among White youth from areas where people were most dissatisfied with the presidential election. To test the countervailing impacts of these significant events on youth delinquency, we combined individual‐level data on crime, routine activities, and political disaffection from a large sample of 12th‐grade youth ( n = 3648) collected in the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, with community‐level data on school closures, constraints to geographic mobility and social interaction, police killings of civilians, election‐related protests, and perceptions of election fairness. Overall, delinquency declined by 29% from 2019 to 2021 in part because youth less often engaged in unstructured activities and less frequently used alcohol and other drugs. Youth crime, however, did not decline in communities with high levels of police violence.

Using restricted data from 2011 to 2014, this study examines whether neighborhood immigrant concentration and survey interview language are associated with participation in the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). The findings show that survey participation in the NCVS during the study period did not differ appreciably among households and persons sampled from neighborhoods with larger shares of immigrants. This suggests that the NCVS can contribute meaningfully to knowledge about the relationship between neighborhood immigrant concentration and levels of crime, providing an important complement to studies based on crime data collected by law enforcement agencies. Interview language had a minimal impact on nonresponse among Hispanic respondents in the NCVS, but the study revealed much higher rates of nonresponse across waves among Asian household respondents who completed the NCVS in a non-English language, especially among those from neighborhoods with relatively low immigrant concentration. This suggests that greater translation support for Asian respondents could increase NCVS response rates. Replicating and extending our research with more recent NCVS data, and incorporating the new item on citizenship status, would be valuable given the continued growth in the immigrant population, increased share of immigrants who routinely speak a language other than English at home, and social and political changes that have corresponded with observed reductions in nonresponse in government-administered surveys. We encourage the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) to facilitate such research by routinely making the restricted NCVS data available for researchers to use within the nation's Federal Statistical Research Data Centers and by adding interview language as a permanent fixture of the data.

Objective: Recent contributions have highlighted the compatibility of choice- and structural-based perspectives of crime. Drawing on those insights, this study examines the mechanisms that may link neighborhood disadvantage to individual differences in subjective expectations of the risks, costs and rewards from crime. We also evaluate the extent to which subjective expectations may account for the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and individual offending. Methods: Using data from the Pathways to Desistance study and structural equation modeling, we decompose how experiences and interactions with others mediate the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage, subjective expectations and offending. Results: The impact of neighborhood disadvantage on perceived arrest risk is mediated by direct and vicarious arrest experiences. Social capital and commitment to conventional values partially mediate the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and anticipated social costs, and peer delinquency and peer attitudes partially mediate the association between disadvantage and perceived social rewards. Finally, we find that subjective expectations account for about one-third of the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and individual offending. Conclusions: Our study illuminates the value of integrating rational choice and sociological perspectives and highlights the utility of advancing multilevel rational choice theories of offending.

During the early 2000s, the U.S. government began to partner with local law enforcement agencies for assistance with the enforcement of immigration laws. Participation in the voluntary 287(g) program by law enforcement agencies was an important early iteration of this new strategy. Although relatively few agencies adopted 287(g), its implementation was a critical turning point in the nation's approach to immigration enforcement and has been linked to a wide range of negative consequences for Latinos, including higher levels of violent victimization, and decreases in police trust. This study advances knowledge about the factors associated with 287(g) program adoption during the late 2000s. We examined the role of agency ethnoracial diversity and fiscal capacity and several theoretically relevant indicators of the broader county context. Based on a sample of 880 law enforcement agencies located in 233 counties, rare event logistic regression models indicate that the strongest predictors of 287(g) adoption were the share of county population estimated to be undocumented immigrants, the degree of support for the Republican Presidential candidate, and the relative unemployment of Hispanic and non-Hispanic White residents. Overall, the results suggest that 287(g) was primarily a political response to concerns about the potential threats associated with undocumented immigration.

Research Summary:Our understanding of how immigration enforcement impacts crime has been informed by data from the police crime statistics. This study complements existing research by using longitudinal multilevel data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) for 2005-2014 to simultaneously assess the impact of the three predominant immigration policies that have been implemented in local communities. The results indicate that the activation of Secure Communities and 287(g) task force agreements significantly increased violent victimization risk among Latinos, whereas they showed no evident impact on victimization risk among non-Latino Whites and Blacks. The activation of 287(g) jail enforcement agreements and anti-detainer policies had no significant impact on violent victimization risk during the period. Policy Implications:Contrary to their stated purpose of enhancing public safety, our results show that the Secure Communities program and 287(g) task force agreements did not reduce crime, but instead eroded security in American communities by increasing the likelihood that Latinos experienced violent victimization. These results support the Federal government's ending of 287(g) task force agreements and its more recent move to end the Secure Communities program. Additionally, the results of our study add to the evidence challenging claims that anti-detainer policies pose a threat to violence risk.

Much of the political rhetoric that facilitated mass incarceration was predicated on the promise of reducing fear among the public. Yet, it remains unclear whether the large increases in imprisonment experienced in many areas made residents feel less afraid. We examine this issue by integrating geographic data on imprisonment with individual-level data on fear from the General Social Survey (GSS). We find that people from states and counties with greater "cumulative imprisonment" rates were no less afraid than their counterparts from areas that imprisoned many fewer people. These findings hold for the public overall and for non-Latino whites and members of the working and middle classes, who frequently were target audiences for political rhetoric linking mass incarceration era policies to fear reduction. Our study supports growing calls to decouple crime and criminal justice policy from politics and electoral cycles, and to develop evidence-based punishment approaches organized around transparent normative principles.

Introduction: Research is equivocal about how the social relationship between victims and offenders is linked to the emotional, social, and physical consequences of violence. This study examines the association of victim-offender relationship with the adverse outcomes reported by injured and uninjured victims of violence. Methods: The study analyzed 16,723 violent victimizations recorded by the National Crime Victimization Survey from 2008 to 2018. Multivariable quasi-Poisson models estimated the associations between the victim-offender relationship and victims' emotional distress, social distress, and physical and emotional symptoms. These models also estimated a statistical interaction between victim-offender relationship and violent injury to examine how this association differed for injured and uninjured victims. The analyses occurred during 2020 and 2021. Results: Uninjured victims were more likely to report emotional distress (risk ratio=1.41, 95% CI=1.33, 1.50), social distress (risk ratio=3.12, 95% CI=2.78, 3.51), more physical symptoms (symptom frequency ratio=1.68, 95% CI=1.51, 1.87), and more emotional symptoms (symptom frequency ratio=1.13, 95% CI=1.08, 1.18) in family member/intimate partner violence than in stranger violence. Victims also reported worse outcomes after acquaintance violence than after stranger violence. For injured victims, these differences narrowed-but were still significant-in emotional and social distress models. However, the number of emotional and physical symptoms reported by injured victims did not significantly vary across victim-offender relationships. Conclusions: Relational closeness between victims and offenders is a risk factor for adverse outcomes after violent victimization, and it is more strongly associated with these outcomes for uninjured victims than for injured victims. (C) 2021 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recent scholarship has examined changes in the geographic distribution of poor persons in America, but it remains unclear whether high- and low- poverty neighborhoods have become more, or less, spatially clustered over the past several decades. Additionally, while many have argued that growth in both high-poverty spatial clusters and high-low poverty spatial clusters could yield conditions that are conducive to increases in homicide, previous research has not considered that possibility. We contribute to knowledge by examining whether there have been important shifts in the spatial clustering of poverty in America between 1980 and 2010, and if so, whether those shifts were related to changes in homicide during the period. The descriptive results of our study reveal that there were notable changes in population exposure to both high- poverty and high-low poverty spatial clusters between 1980 and 2010. Fixed-effects negative binomial regression models yield limited support for the idea that changes in spatial inequality, as measured by the clustering of high- and low-poverty neighborhoods, are associated with changes in homicide rates. In contrast, the results indicate a significant positive association between changes in exposure to very high-poverty spatial clusters and homicide trends. The findings affirm the importance of considering the spatial dynamics of demographic conditions when explaining changes in violence across communities.

Extant research has provided support for the micro-level predictions of rational choice models of crime. Yet, a central feature of the rational choice perspective in the broader social sciences-that it is multilevel in focus, situating individuals within broader community social structures-has been neglected within criminology. In this article, we discuss and test a model that links community structural characteristics to several individual expectations and preferences relevant to crime. Using data from the Pathways to Desistance study, we find that objective levels of neighborhood concentrated disadvantage influence individuals' perceptions of, and preferences for, the risks, costs, and rewards associated with offending indirectly by affecting perceived disorder and perceived opportunities for legitimate avenues of success within one's neighborhood. The implications of a multilevel rational choice model of offending are discussed.

Until recently, national-level data on criminal victimization in the United States did not include information on immigrant or citizenship status of respondents. This data-infrastructure limitation has hindered scientific understanding of whether immigrants are more or less likely than native-born Americans to be criminally victimized and how victimization may vary among immigrants of different statuses. We address these issues in the present study by using new data from the 2017-2018 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to explore the association between citizenship status and victimization risk in a nationally representative sample of households and persons aged 12 years and older. The research is guided by a theoretical framing that integrates insights from studies of citizenship with the literature on immigration and crime, as well as theories of victimization. We find that a person's foreign-born status (but not their acquired U.S. citizenship) confers protection against victimization. We also find that the protective benefit associated with being foreign-born does not extend to those with ambiguous citizenship status, who in our data exhibit attributes similar to the known characteristics of undocumented immigrants. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings and the potential ways to extend the research.

Youth involvement in crime has declined substantially over the past few decades, yet the reasons for this trend remain unclear. We advance the literature by examining the role of several potentially important shifts in individual attitudes and behaviors that may help to account for the observed temporal variation in youth delinquency. Our multilevel analysis of repeated cross-sectional data from high school students in the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study indicates that changes in youth offending prevalence were not associated with changes in youth attachment and commitment to school, community involvement, or parental supervision after school. In contrast, the study provides suggestive evidence that the significant reduction in youth offending prevalence observed since the early 1990s was significantly associated with a decrease in unstructured socializing and alcohol consumption and, to a lesser extent, with a decrease in youth preferences for risky activities. Implications for existing theoretical explanations and future research on youth crime trends are discussed.

Prior research has examined the effects of social welfare on levels of crime in the U.S. The emphasis has been on how governmental support in the form of social spending may influence crime levels because it serves as a mechanism to lessen the impact of adverse financial circumstances that may stimulate criminal behavior. This study builds on prior research by assessing the impact of another mechanism that affects the distribution of economic resources: the structure of the tax system. Specifically, we incorporate the "Suits Index," a novel measure of the progressivity of the tax system. Our analysis examines the effects of changes in the Suits Index on changes in robbery and burglary rates using data for the 50 U.S. states between 1995 and 2017. Results indicate that movement towards greater progressivity in the tax structure was associated with decreases in robbery and burglary rates, net of changes in social spending.

Objectives The purpose of this study is to extend research on communities and crime by assessing neighborhood variation in mortgage fraud. Methods We use proprietary data to generate a measure of mortgage fraud for 2005 through 2008 for 793 census tracts in Chicago. We estimate maximum likelihood spatial regression models to assess the impact of tract-level structural variables and lending market characteristics on mortgage fraud. Results We find that concentrated disadvantage, percent black, and immigrant concentration are associated with greater levels of mortgage fraud. However, the impact of these factors is largely mediated by subprime lending. In addition, we find mortgages purchased by private entities also lead to greater levels of mortgage fraud. Contrary to expectations, changing loan values are unrelated to mortgage fraud. Conclusions The findings suggest the relationship between neighborhood structural characteristics and mortgage fraud is partially due to a lack of public social control in disadvantaged minority neighborhoods. Future research should build on this study and examine a wider variety of crimes than are traditionally studied at the neighborhood level.

Prior research on the racial threat perspective and social control typically relies on aggregate-level demographic measures and focuses on racial, rather than on Latino group, composition. This predominant focus in research on racial threat and social control makes it unclear whether the assumed linkages are confined to one subordinate group or whether other groups, such as Latinos, are viewed as threatening and elicit heightened social control reactions as well. In the current study, we use data from the Punitive Attitudes Toward Hispanic (PATH) Study, a national sample of U.S. residents to investigate the influence of macro- and micro-level measures of Latino group threat on punitive Latino sentiment. More specifically, we use multilevel models to detect direct and interactive relationships between Latino presence and perceived Latino threat on punitive sentiment. The findings show that Latino population growth and perceived Latino criminal and economic threat significantly predict punitive Latino sentiment. Additionally, multiplicative models suggest that the effect of perceived criminal threat on punitive Latino sentiment is most pronounced in settings that have experienced recent growth in the size of the Latino population.

Over the past 50 years, researchers in the United States and abroad have debated the inherent inequities within justice systems that contribute to the underreporting of crime to the police. Our review summarizes existing knowledge about victim reporting and outlines new directions in theory and empirical research that situate this work within a broader perspective on victim help-seeking. We begin with a short review of the historical development of research on victim reporting and its implications for research and social policy. We then review and critique major explanations of victims’ reporting behavior and outline a new integrated multilevel framework. This model draws on the broader help-seeking literature to study police notification and other forms of victim help-seeking as interrelated systems that respond to social-contextual factors and feedback effects. We conclude by outlining the core empirical implications of this multilevel theoretical framework and illuminating the most significant data and research needs.

Using data from the Area-Identified National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), we provide a national assessment of the impact of neighborhood immigrant concentration on whether violence is reported to the police. By drawing on multiple theoretical perspectives, we outline how the level of violence reporting could be higher or lower in immigrant neighborhoods, as well as how this may depend on individual race/ethnicity and the history of immigration in the county in which immigrant neighborhoods are located. Controlling for both individual- and neighborhood-level conditions, our findings indicate that within traditional immigrant counties, rates of violence reporting in immigrant neighborhoods are similar to those observed elsewhere. In contrast, within newer immigrant destinations, we observe much lower rates of violence reporting in neighborhoods with a large concentration of immigrants. Our study findings reveal comparable patterns for Whites, Blacks, and Latinos. The results have important implications for theory, policy, and future research.

Disparities in historical and contemporary punishment of Blacks have been well documented. Racial threat has been proffered as a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon. In an effort to understand the factors that influence punishment and racial divides in America, we draw on racial threat theory and prior scholarship to test three hypotheses. First, Black punitive sentiment among Whites will be greater among those who reside in areas where lynching was more common. Second, heightened Black punitive sentiment among Whites in areas with more pronounced legacies of lynching will be partially mediated by Whites' perceptions of Blacks' criminality and of Black-on-White violence in these areas. Third, the impact of lynching on Black punitive sentiment will be amplified by Whites' perceptions of Blacks as criminals and as threatening more generally. We find partial support for these hypotheses. The results indicate that lynchings are associated with punitive sentiment toward Black offenders, and these relationships are partially mediated by perceptions of Blacks as criminals and as threats to Whites. In addition, the effects of lynchings on Black punitiveness are amplified among White respondents who view Blacks as a threat to Whites. These results highlight the salience of historical context for understanding contemporary views about punishment.