Catastrophic wildfires occurring over the last several years have led land management agencies to focus on reducing hazardous fuels. These wildland fuel reduction projects will likely be concentrated in shorter interval, fire-adapted ecosystems that have been moderately or significantly altered from their historical range. But where are these situations located? What are their fuel characteristics? Who owns them? Describing fuel characteristics on these lands is not simple, but Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data may be helpful. One objective of this study was to demonstrate the linkages between forest inventory data and hazardous fuel characteristics and to identify information gaps and needed relationships. A second objective was to estimate and contrast overstory and understory biomass, especially in high fire-risk areas. Restricting analysis to Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah, we estimate that understory biomass accounts for 4 to 8 percent (20 to 42 million tons) of total forest biomass. Additionally, we estimate that around 57 percent (619 million tons) of the estimated 1.08 billion tons of biomass is found on high firerisk forest lands. Of these 619 million tons, approximately 434 million tons is associated with larger diameter (> 10 inches) overstory trees, both live and dead, and most is found on nonreserved forestlands (lands where tree utilization is not precluded by statute or administrative designation) administered by the USDA Forest Service. We found that FIA data provides useful data on 92-96 percent of biomass, but we did encounter problems with estimating understory biomass. Some of the problems we encountered included a lack of widely applicable understory biomass equations, no equations for estimating tree seedling biomass using percent cover, and many biomass equations for shrubs that use diameter, a measurement that is not collected by FIA.

On June 26, 2002, U.S. Representative Mark Udall wrote the US Forest Service Chief, requesting that the Forest Service conduct an analysis of the Hayman Fire. In response to the Congressman's letter, five teams were established in August, 2002 to analyze various aspects of the Hayman Fire experience. This report describes the Hayman Fire analysis work conducted by the social/economic team and presents our findings.

State budget crises, along with voter-passed initiatives limiting property tax levies,1 have severely reduced school financing in many states in recent years. Rural schools may be particularly vulnerable in that they are typically less able to generate revenue because funding often is tied to enrollment, rural districts tend to have lower property value assessments, and citizens may be unwilling to pay for school facility improvements.2 Such funding limitations make every source of school revenue essential for rural school districts.

This study examines the effects of displacement and outsourcing on 60 woods workers and their partners in northeastern California. Following displacement, 17% retired and 76% were reemployed when interviewed. The average unemployment period was 2 mo. Eighty percent of those reemployed continued to work in the woods. Postdisplacement income declined on average 25% from predisplacement levels. As a group, retirees fared the worst, losing 30% of their predisplacement income, while those reemployed in woods work lost on average 17%. Those reemployed worked in less stable jobs and frequently worked more hours with fewer or no benefits. Thirty percent were without health insurance. Women shouldered an increased responsibility for household income, contributing on average 15% more to the postdisplacement total. Job training was ineffective because the displaced were unwilling to move into occupations requiring relocation. Commitment to kin and communities kept the displaced from moving despite limited local opportunities.

A sensitivity analysis was conducted of the National Fire Management Analysis System (NFMAS) to better understand the relationship between data input and model output. After consultations with fire managers and researchers, five input variables were selected for sensitization: unit mission costs, average acre costs, net value change, production rates, and escaped fire limits. A random sample of 23 National Forests was selected, according to the distribution of forests within regions and fire frequency classes, on the basis of historical fire data. Database tables were manipulated, with each variable increased and decreased at six levels (±25, ±50, and +100 percent). The Interagency Initial Attack Assessment (IIAA) model was run at each successive level, generating a new set of output, cost plus net value change (C+NVC), for each sensitized variable. Results were analyzed statistically, and production rates and average acre costs were found to be the most influential, while unit mission costs was least influential. In general, greater sensitivity changes resulted in greater changes in C+NVC. The National Fire Management Analysis System (NFMAS) was designed in the late 1970's by Richard Chase, for use by the USDA Forest Service in strategic fire management and budget planning. It was later adopted by other fire-management agencies, including the USDI's Bureau of Land Management and the National Park Service. The NFMAS simulation model (NARTC 1997) currently consists of two software programs: Personal Computer Historical Analysis (PCHA), which provides historical weather and fire behavior data, and the Interagency Initial Attack Assessment (IIAA). IIAA (COMPUS 1997) is the analytical engine, a tool intended to help analyze various fire-management scenarios or program options that represent various combinations of fire-fighting resources and other budget items. The overriding purpose of IIAA analysis is to help identify the most efficient level (MEL) of funding for a given National Forest, that is, the program option associated with lowest sum of the presuppression budget, emergency fire-suppression costs, and net value change of resources (the sum of positive and negative resource effects). An administrative unit's initial attack organization will use these data in developing budget requests. NFMAS is applied to a sub-forest area, the fire management zone, and results are aggregated to produce Forest, Forest Service Region, and agencywide totals. This service-wide total is used as the basis for budget proposals. Management of NFMAS is a major undertaking in the Forest Service. Training sessions are held at the Marana, Arizona, facility. NFMAS training is received by selected Forest Service personnel, ranging from district fire management officers to upper level managers, and by personnel from USDI agencies and various state fire-fighting organizations. A NFMAS certification” process is implemented at both the regional and forest levels. Certification involves inspection teams reviewing and revising data and procedures used by field personnel to help ensure compliance with national policy, promoting consistency between units. NFMAS-related databases are constructed, calibrated, and analyzed to identify the most efficient initial attack organization for each Forest. The budgets associated with those most-efficient organizations, MEL, become part of the Forest Service appropriations process. 1

This report stems from Congressional concern over the equivalency between Federal payments to counties containing Federal resource management lands, the likely tax liability, and other county-level benefits and costs associated with those lands. Results indicate that the overall tax liability on Federal lands is almost three times the Federal payments. A survey of county executive officers indicates that the direct fiscal costs or benefits to county governments from Federal lands and programs are modest.

Abstract This study investigates three aspects of timber management (TM) costs in the Northern Region of the USDA Forest Service from 1960 to 1995. Total timber management costs and costs/unit of timber harvested were analyzed to determine: (1) trends in unit costs and their probable causes, (2) whether economies of scale existed in timber management over this period, and (3) the distribution of total cost changes geographically and among expenditure categories. Results indicate the prevailing factor behind the upward trend in unit costs was the decline in timber harvested (especially since 1990). Separation of TM unit costs into seven cost categories shows that from 1960 to 1980, road construction accounted for 50% of overall unit costs. After 1985, however, harvest design and administration expenditures replaced road construction as the dominant expenditure category. By 1995, harvest design and administration accounted for 26% of unit costs, while road construction's share had dropped to 13%. Other analysis found unit costs to decrease as the timber land base increased, indicating economies of scale in timber management. Finally, an examination of total timber management costs shows road construction (including reconstruction) was the largest contributor to both cost increases from 1960 to 1980 and decreases from 1980 to 1995. West. J. Appl. For. 14(4):200-207.

Abstract Given the complex and expensive nature of timber sale planning, timber offerings that receive no bids waste valuable time and resources for the managers of national forests. This article compares several tools for predicting the salability of timber offerings. These tools include probability-based techniques and appraisal-based techniques. The probability-based techniques include probit regression and discriminant analysis. The appraisal-based techniques use various modifications of the standard transaction evidence appraisal equations to predict salability. Results show probability-based techniques do better at correctly classifying timber offerings as sold or unsold. They correctly classify nearly 100% of the sold offerings, which constitute most of the offerings in the sample. However, if the user's primary interest is to predict unsold offerings correctly, appraisal-based techniques outperform probability-based techniques. West. J. Appl. For. 13(4):129-136.

Abstract Natural resource management agencies share revenue from sale of commodities with Western States (states north and west of Kansas and New Mexico) through five important programs, including the 25% Fund and PILT. Since 1977, the aggregate value of these payments has increased by about two-thirds, when measured in current dollars; in constant dollars, the aggregate value has decreased by about one-tenth. Revenues shared through the Mineral Lands Leasing Act accounted for the most (49%), and the Taylor Grazing Act accounted for the least (1%). An overview of major revenue-sharing programs is provided. West. J. Appl. For. 11(1):20-24.

Abstract The special forest products industry has the potential of making substantial contributions to the troubled forest-based economies of the Northern Rockies. Comprised of floral greens, Christmas ornamentals, wild edible mushrooms, other edibles and medicinals, and Pacific yew segments, the industry has the potential to provide both full-time and part-time employment on a nearly year-round basis. The region's natural resource base and available labor supply seem well-suited to developing special forest products firms. The existing transportation system and business environment is also well suited to expansion of this industry. West. J. Appl. For. 10(4):138-143.

Abstract This study analyzed the effect of USDA Forest Service stumpage rate adjustment (SRA) on timber revenues and initial stumpage bids. SRAs adjust harvest prices up or down from initial bid prices, based on subsequent product market indices. Revenue generation was addressed by simulating harvest revenues from 600 timber sales from the western United States during the 1980s and early 1990s. The current 50/100 policy (50% of price index increases and 100% of price index decreases) performed poorly, and the 100/50 option performed best. The effect of SRA policy on initial bid prices was analyzed with statistical models constructed from 1813 timber sales. In Region 6, stumpage prices received from flat rate sales exceeded those from SRA sales by about 3%, but in the aggregate of other western Regions (Regions 1-5), stumpage prices for SRA sales exceeded those of flat rate sales by about 12%. West. J. Appl. For. 10(2):53-58

Abstract Although transaction evidence appraisal (TEA) is used extensively for timber appraisal throughout the West, the effect of database length and weighing of data has been largely ignored. This paper investigates how 1-, 2-, and 3-yr model-building database lengths, with equal, biannual, quarterly, and monthly weighing schemes effect TEA prediction accuracy and responsiveness. Accuracy was measured by the "average absolute error" of predicted stumpage value from actual stumpage value. Visual inspection of the prediction trajectory served to evaluate responsiveness to market changes. Results indicate that quarterly and monthly weighing and 1-yr database length improved statistical prediction accuracy, and 1-yr database length and monthly weighing proved most responsive. West. J. Appl. For. 9(2): 71-76.

Abstract Do unsold timber offerings indicate excessive, wasteful timber sales, as critics charge? Or are such offerings a normal part of timber markets and eventually sold? This study assessed unsold offerings in the Northern Region of the USDA Forest Service during 1961-1988 to determine the percentage, duration, and reasons for unsold offerings. About 7% of all offerings are initially unsold; moreover, the percentage has been rising during the past 3 decades. Although specific variables were poorly correlated with unsold offerings, regional timber availability seems to be the most important causal factor. About 60% of the volume in unsold offerings was eventually sold, averaging about 15 months to sell. West. J. Appl. For. 6(4):108-111.

Abstract The authors investigated the separable costs of provisions to mitigate damage to or enhance nontimber resources in timber sales for national forests in the Northern and Intermountain Regions. Data were obtained from 224 timber sales made between 1983 and 1985. A "timber-only" design was developed for each sale, was compared to the actual design, and the loss in estimated stumpage receipts was used to reflect the cost due to nontimber considerations. This loss averaged about $20 per mbf (1985 dollars), much of which could be traced to reduced harvest volumes. Most modifications and associated costs were intended to mitigate adverse impacts and resulted from required, policy-based choices. West. J. Appl. For. 4(4):119-124, October 1989.

When National Forest lands are transferred from a nonwilderness to wilderness status, recreation use tabulations are transferred from one accounting category to another. The potential for such transfers to distort reported use levels is evaluated. Statistical models were developed to estimate transfers and to adjust reported recreational use levels from 1966 to 1982 for National Forests in Montana and northern Idaho. Transfers accounted for 34 percent of reported wilderness use between 1973 and 1982. Reported recreation growth rates and recent-year use levels were statistically different from those adjusted to reflect accounting transfers.