Summary statistics of the likelihood, such as the Bayesian evidence, offer a principled way of comparing models and assessing tension between, or within, the results of physical experiments. Noisy realisations of the data induce scatter in these model comparison statistics. For a realistic case of cosmological inference from large-scale structure we show that the logarithm of the Bayes factor attains scatter of order unity, increasing significantly with stronger tension between the models under comparison. We develop an approximate procedure that quantifies the sampling distribution of the evidence at small additional computational cost and apply it to real data to demonstrate the impact of the scatter, which acts to reduce the significance of any model discrepancies. Data compression is highlighted as a potential avenue to suppressing noise in the evidence to negligible levels, with a proof of concept on Planck cosmic microwave background data.

Summary statistics of the likelihood, such as the Bayesian evidence, offer a principled way of comparing models and assessing tension between, or within, the results of physical experiments. Noisy realisations of the data induce scatter in these model comparison statistics. For a realistic case of cosmological inference from large-scale structure we show that the logarithm of the Bayes factor attains scatter of order unity, increasing significantly with stronger tension between the models under comparison. We develop an approximate procedure that quantifies the sampling distribution of the evidence at small additional computational cost and apply it to real data to demonstrate the impact of the scatter, which acts to reduce the significance of any model discrepancies. Data compression is highlighted as a potential avenue to suppressing noise in the evidence to negligible levels, with a proof of concept on Planck cosmic microwave background data.

We present a tomographic cosmic shear analysis of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) combined with the VISTA Kilo-Degree Infrared Galaxy Survey (VIKING). This is the first time that a full optical to near-infrared data set has been used for a wide-field cosmological weak lensing experiment. This unprecedented data, spanning $450~$deg$^2$, allows us to improve significantly the estimation of photometric redshifts, such that we are able to include robustly higher-redshift sources for the lensing measurement, and - most importantly - solidify our knowledge of the redshift distributions of the sources. Based on a flat $\Lambda$CDM model we find $S_8\equiv\sigma_8\sqrt{\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3}=0.737_{-0.036}^{+0.040}$ in a blind analysis from cosmic shear alone. The tension between KiDS cosmic shear and the Planck-Legacy CMB measurements remains in this systematically more robust analysis, with $S_8$ differing by $2.3\sigma$. This result is insensitive to changes in the priors on nuisance parameters for intrinsic alignment, baryon feedback, and neutrino mass. KiDS shear measurements are calibrated with a new, more realistic set of image simulations and no significant B-modes are detected in the survey, indicating that systematic errors are under control. When calibrating our redshift distributions by assuming the 30-band COSMOS-2015 photometric redshifts are correct (following the Dark Energy Survey and the Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey), we find the tension with Planck is alleviated. The robust determination of source redshift distributions remains one of the most challenging aspects for future cosmic shear surveys.

ABSTRACT We present constraints on Horndeski gravity from a combined analysis of cosmic shear, galaxy–galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering from $450\, \mathrm{deg}^2$ of the Kilo-Degree Survey and the Galaxy And Mass Assembly survey.The Horndeski class of dark energy/modified gravity models includes the majority of universally coupled extensions to ΛCDM with one scalar field in addition to the metric. We study the functions of time that fully describe the evolution of linear perturbations in Horndeski gravity. Our results are compatible throughout with a ΛCDM model. By imposing gravitational wave constraints, we fix the tensor speed excess to zero and consider a subset of models including, e.g. quintessence and f(R) theories. Assuming proportionality of the Horndeski functions αB and αM (kinetic braiding and the Planck mass run rate, respectively) to the dark energy density fraction ΩDE(a) = 1 − Ωm(a), we find for the proportionality coefficients $\hat{\alpha }_\mathrm{ B} = 0.20_{-0.33}^{+0.20} \,$ and $\, \hat{\alpha }_\mathrm{ M} = 0.25_{-0.29}^{+0.19}$. Our value of $S_8 \equiv \sigma _8 \sqrt{\Omega _{\mathrm{m}}/0.3}$ is in better agreement with the Planck estimate when measured in the enlarged Horndeski parameter space than in a pure ΛCDM scenario. In our joint three-probe analysis, we report a downward shift of the S8 best-fitting value from the Planck measurement of $\Delta S_8 = 0.016_{-0.046}^{+0.048}$ in Horndeski gravity, compared to $\Delta S_8 = 0.059_{-0.039}^{+0.040}$ in ΛCDM. Our constraints are robust to the modelling uncertainty of the non-linear matter power spectrum in Horndeski gravity. Our likelihood code for multiprobe analysis in both ΛCDM and Horndeski gravity is publicly available at https://github.com/alessiospuriomancini/KiDSHorndeski.

One-opposition near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) are growing in number, and they must be recovered to prevent loss and mismatch risk, and to improve their orbits, as they are likely to be too faint for detection in shallow surveys at future apparitions. We aimed to recover more than half of the one-opposition NEAs recommended for observations by the Minor Planet Center (MPC) using the Isaac Newton Telescope (INT) in soft-override mode and some fractions of available D-nights. During about 130 hours in total between 2013 and 2016, we targeted 368 NEAs, among which 56 potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), observing 437 INT Wide Field Camera (WFC) fields and recovering 280 NEAs (76% of all targets). Engaging a core team of about ten students and amateurs, we used the THELI, Astrometrica, and the Find_Orb software to identify all moving objects using the blink and track-and-stack method for the faintest targets and plotting the positional uncertainty ellipse from NEODyS. Most targets and recovered objects had apparent magnitudes centered around V~22.8 mag, with some becoming as faint as V~24 mag. One hundred and three objects (representing 28% of all targets) were recovered by EURONEAR alone by Aug 2017. Orbital arcs were prolonged typically from a few weeks to a few years; our oldest recoveries reach 16 years. The O-C residuals for our 1,854 NEA astrometric positions show that most measurements cluster closely around the origin. In addition to the recovered NEAs, 22,000 positions of about 3,500 known minor planets and another 10,000 observations of about 1,500 unknown objects (mostly main-belt objects) were promptly reported to the MPC by our team. Four new NEAs were discovered serendipitously in the analyzed fields, increasing the counting to nine NEAs discovered by the EURONEAR in 2014 and 2015.

We present measurements of the weak gravitational lensing shear power spectrum based on $450$ sq. deg. of imaging data from the Kilo Degree Survey. We employ a quadratic estimator in two and three redshift bins and extract band powers of redshift auto-correlation and cross-correlation spectra in the multipole range $76 \leq \ell \leq 1310$. The cosmological interpretation of the measured shear power spectra is performed in a Bayesian framework assuming a $\Lambda$CDM model with spatially flat geometry, while accounting for small residual uncertainties in the shear calibration and redshift distributions as well as marginalising over intrinsic alignments, baryon feedback and an excess-noise power model. Moreover, massive neutrinos are included in the modelling. The cosmological main result is expressed in terms of the parameter combination $S_8 \equiv \sigma_8 \sqrt{\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3}$ yielding $S_8 = \ 0.651 \pm 0.058$ (3 z-bins), confirming the recently reported tension in this parameter with constraints from Planck at $3.2\sigma$ (3 z-bins). We cross-check the results of the 3 z-bin analysis with the weaker constraints from the 2 z-bin analysis and find them to be consistent. The high-level data products of this analysis, such as the band power measurements, covariance matrices, redshift distributions, and likelihood evaluation chains are available at http://kids.strw.leidenuniv.nl/

We present cosmological parameter constraints from a tomographic weak gravitational lensing analysis of ~450deg$^2$ of imaging data from the Kilo Degree Survey (KiDS). For a flat $\Lambda$CDM cosmology with a prior on $H_0$ that encompasses the most recent direct measurements, we find $S_8\equiv\sigma_8\sqrt{\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3}=0.745\pm0.039$. This result is in good agreement with other low redshift probes of large scale structure, including recent cosmic shear results, along with pre-Planck cosmic microwave background constraints. A $2.3$-$\sigma$ tension in $S_8$ and `substantial discordance' in the full parameter space is found with respect to the Planck 2015 results. We use shear measurements for nearly 15 million galaxies, determined with a new improved `self-calibrating' version of $lens$fit validated using an extensive suite of image simulations. Four-band $ugri$ photometric redshifts are calibrated directly with deep spectroscopic surveys. The redshift calibration is confirmed using two independent techniques based on angular cross-correlations and the properties of the photometric redshift probability distributions. Our covariance matrix is determined using an analytical approach, verified numerically with large mock galaxy catalogues. We account for uncertainties in the modelling of intrinsic galaxy alignments and the impact of baryon feedback on the shape of the non-linear matter power spectrum, in addition to the small residual uncertainties in the shear and redshift calibration. The cosmology analysis was performed blind. Our high-level data products, including shear correlation functions, covariance matrices, redshift distributions, and Monte Carlo Markov Chains are available at http://kids.strw.leidenuniv.nl.

We present cosmological parameter constraints from a tomographic weak gravitational lensing analysis of ∼450 deg2 of imaging data from the Kilo Degree Survey (KiDS). For a flat cold dark matter ( CDM) cosmology with a prior on H0 that encompasses the most recent direct measurements, we find S8 ≡ σ8 √ m/0.3 = 0.745 ± 0.039. This result is in good agreement with other low-redshift probes of large-scale structure, including recent cosmic shear results, along with pre-Planck cosmic microwave background constraints. A 2.3σ tension in S8 and ‘substantial discordance’ in the full parameter space is found with respect to the Planck 2015 results. We use shear measurements for nearly 15 million galaxies, determined with a new improved ‘self-calibrating’ version of lensFIT validated using an extensive suite of image simulations. Four-band ugri photometric redshifts are calibrated directly with deep spectroscopic surveys. The redshift calibration is confirmed using two independent techniques based on angular cross-correlations and the properties of the photometric redshift probability distributions. Our covariance matrix is determined using an analytical approach, verified numerically with large mock galaxy catalogues. We account for uncertainties in the modelling of intrinsic galaxy alignments and the impact of baryon feedback on the shape of the nonlinear matter power spectrum, in addition to the small residual uncertainties in the shear and redshift calibration. The cosmology analysis was performed blind. Our high-level data products, including shear correlation functions, covariance matrices, redshift distributions, and Monte Carlo Markov chains are available at http://kids.strw.leidenuniv.nl.

We measure the weak gravitational lensing shear power spectra and their cross-power in two photometric redshift bins from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS). The measurements are performed directly in multipole space in terms of adjustable band powers. For the extraction of the band powers from the data we have implemented and extended a quadratic estimator, a maximum likelihood method that allows us to readily take into account irregular survey geometries, masks, and varying sampling densities. We find the 68 per cent credible intervals in the sigma(8)-Omega(m) plane to be marginally consistent with results from Planck for a simple five-parameter Lambda cold dark matter (Lambda CDM) model. For the projected parameter S-8 equivalent to sigma(8)(Omega m/0.3)(0.5) we obtain a best-fitting value of S-8 = 0.768(-0.039)(+0.045). This constraint is consistent with results from other CFHTLenS studies as well as the Dark Energy Survey. Our most conservative model, including modifications to the power spectrum due to baryon feedback and marginalization over photometric redshift errors, yields an upper limit on the total mass of three degenerate massive neutrinos of Sigma(m nu) < 4.53 eV at 95 per cent credibility, while a Bayesian model comparison does not favour any model extension beyond a simple five-parameter Lambda CDM model. Combining the shear likelihood with Planck breaks the sigma 8-Omega(m) degeneracy and yields sigma(8) = 0.818 +/- 0.013 and Omega(m) = 0.300 +/- 0.011 which is fully consistent with results from Planck alone.

Upcoming and ongoing large area weak lensing surveys will also discover large samples of galaxy clusters. Accurate and precise masses of galaxy clusters are of major importance for cosmology, for example, in establishing well calibrated observational halo mass functions for comparison with cosmological predictions. We investigate the level of statistical uncertainties and sources of systematic errors expected for weak lensing mass estimates. Future surveys that will cover large areas on the sky, such as Euclid or LSST and to lesser extent DES, will provide the largest weak lensing cluster samples with the lowest level of statistical noise regarding ensembles of galaxy clusters. However, the expected low level of statistical uncertainties requires us to scrutinize various sources of systematic errors. In particular, we investigate the bias due to cluster member galaxies which are erroneously treated as background source galaxies due to wrongly assigned photometric redshifts. We find that this effect is significant when referring to stacks of galaxy clusters. Finally, we study the bias due to miscentring, i.e., the displacement between any observationally defined cluster centre and the true minimum of its gravitational potential. The impact of this bias might be significant with respect to the statistical uncertainties. However, complementary future missions such as eROSITA will allow us to define stringent priors on miscentring parameters which will mitigate this bias significantly.

Torques acting on galaxies lead to physical alignments, but the resulting ellipticity correlations are difficult to predict. As they constitute a major contaminant for cosmic shear studies, it is important to constrain the intrinsic alignment signal observationally. We measured the alignments of satellite galaxies within 90 massive galaxy clusters in the redshift range 0.05<z<0.55 and quantified their impact on the cosmic shear signal. We combined a sample of 38,104 galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts with high-quality data from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. We used phase-space information to select 14,576 cluster members, 14,250 of which have shape measurements and measured three different types of alignment: the radial alignment of satellite galaxies toward the brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs), the common orientations of satellite galaxies and BCGs, and the radial alignments of satellites with each other. Residual systematic effects are much smaller than the statistical uncertainties. We detect no galaxy alignment of any kind out to at least 3 r200. The signal is consistent with zero for both blue and red galaxies, bright and faint ones, and also for subsamples of clusters based on redshift, dynamical mass, and dynamical state. These conclusions are unchanged if we expand the sample with bright cluster members from the red sequence. We augment our constraints with those from the literature to estimate the importance of the intrinsic alignments of satellites compared to those of central galaxies, for which the alignments are described by the linear alignment model. Comparison of the alignment signals to the expected uncertainties of current surveys such as the Kilo-Degree Survey suggests that the linear alignment model is an adequate treatment of intrinsic alignments, but it is not clear whether this will be the case for larger surveys.

We present results of our study of the infrared properties of massive stars in the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds, which are based on the Spitzer SAGE surveys of these galaxies. We have compiled catalogs of spectroscopically confirmed massive stars in each galaxy, as well as photometric catalogs for a subset of these stars that have infrared counterparts in the SAGE database, with uniform photometry from 0.3 to 24 microns in the UBVIJHKs+IRAC+MIPS24 bands. These catalogs enable a comparative study of infrared excesses of OB stars, classical Be stars, yellow and red supergiants, Wolf-Rayet stars, Luminous Blue Variables and supergiant B[e] stars, as a function of metallicity, and provide the first roadmaps for interpreting luminous, massive, resolved stellar populations in nearby galaxies at infrared wavelengths.

This issue contains no fewer than five very interesting papers regarding the origin of the Magellanic Clouds and their interaction: Růžička, Theis & Palouš; Boylan-Kolchin, Besla & Hernquist; Yang & Hammer; Liu et al.; Busha et al. Another, highly original piece of work concerns the experiment to measure the interstellar scintillation of Magellanic Cloud stars as their light passes through the Milky Way’s turbulent interstellar medium (Habibi et al.).