Purpose: Several scoring systems to evaluate patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) exist. A good scoring system should provide information on prognosis and guide therapeutic decisions. The presence of variant liver estrogen receptor (ER) transcripts in the tumor has been shown to be the strongest negative predictor of survival in HCC. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive value of the commonly applied clinical scoring systems for survival of patients with HCC with that of the evaluation of ER in patients with HCC (molecular scoring system). Materials and Methods: HCC was staged according to the Okuda classification, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer classification, Italian classification system (CLIP), French classification, and ER status in 96 patients. Analysis of survival was performed according to the Kaplan-Maier test and was made for each classification system and ER. A comparison between classifications was made by univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: Among the clinical classification systems, only the CLIP was able to identify patient populations with good, intermediate, and poor prognosis. On multivariate analysis, ER classification was shown to be the best predictive classification for survival of patients with HCC (P <.0001). This difference was the result of a better allocation of patients with ominous prognosis (variant ER) having nevertheless good clinical score. Conclusion: The evaluation of the presence of wild-type or variant ER transcripts in the tumor is the best predictor of survival in patients with HCC. Its accuracy in discriminating patients with good or unfavorable prognosis is significantly greater than that of the commonly used scoring systems for the staging of HCC.

Background and aims. To prospectively validate in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding three risk scoring systems (the Baylor College scoring system, the Rockall's risk scoring system and the Cedars-Sinai Medical Centre predictive index) previously proposed to be predictive of rebleeding/death after upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Patients and methods. We calculated values of the scores for 343 patients, who underwent endoscopy after non-variceal upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage during the years 1997-1999. We compared the observed outcomes with the ones expected upon the original series contributed by the authors. Discriminative ability was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.Results and conclusions. Rockall's score accurately predicted rebleeding in low- and intermediate-risk categories (<6), but not in high-risk patients. The rates of rebleeding were significantly higher than the ones predicted by the low-risk categories of either Cedars-Sinai index (less than or equal to2) or Baylor score (less than or equal to6). The predicted and the observed mortality was not significantly different throughout all the categories of Rockall's score, except for patients with a score of 4. All the scores had better discriminative ability for mortality than for rebleeding. The Rockall's score identifies a low-risk group of patients (Rockall's score less than or equal to2) for rebleeding and mortality. (C) 2004 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection often is complicated by recurrence of infection despite immunoglobulin treatment. To evaluate whether variability in HBV genomic sequences and the target of antibody to hepatitis B surface antigen action in pre-LT samples may be associated with a high recurrence rate, HBV pre-S/S regions of 14 HBV-positive candidates for LT (in 9 of these patients, HBV infection subsequently recurred) were amplified and sequenced. Two hundred ninety-one mutations in 1,167 sequenced nucleotides (24.9%) were found. Of these, 120 mutations (10.2%) led to an amino-acid change. The only significant difference between patients with and without recurrent disease was in the number of mutations in the pre-S2 region (total mutations, P =.042; missense mutations, P =.012) of pre-LT HBV DNA. In addition, a difference in amino-acid level was present in the pre-S2 region (P =.030). The delay in HBV infection recurrence was proportional to the number of pre-LT HBV mutations in the pre-S2 and S genes: the higher the number, the longer the interval between LT and recurrence of infection (pre-S2, P =.0124; S, P =.0060; total number of mutations in S protein, P =.0421). In conclusion, pre-LT determination of pre-S/S gene sequence variability showed that heterogeneity of the pre-S2 and, to a lesser extent, S genes was associated with a greater chance for HBV recurrence. Modification of B-cell epitopes of S, but especially of pre-S2, protein leading to conformational changes and alterations in the viral encapsidation and secretion process may facilitate HBV recurrence and contribute to the failure of immune globulin therapy.

Phytoestrogens are plant substances that are similar to 17-beta-estradiol and produce estrogenic effects. A protective role in the development of breast and prostate cancer has been hypothesized. Estrogen receptors and their variant forms play a significant role in the pathogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); therefore weak estrogenic substances in the diet may play a role in its development. To investigate the role of phytoestrogens in HCC an investigation of dietary intake of these substances has been performed. Cases, patients at first diagnosis of cirrhosis or HCC were chosen. Questionnaire was built up using indications from previously published papers, extending the registration of details of the diet to reconstruct intake of nutrients for the last year. Interviews were always performed by the same dietician. Quantities determined with the help of photos of servings. Data were analyzed with Winfood database completed with data regarding content in phytoestrogens of food, beverages and seasonings. So far 92 cirrhotic patients and 32 HCCs have been interviewed. No significant difference was registered among the two groups regarding total caloric intake or single nutrients (lipids, carbohydrates, proteins). A significant lower intake of genistein was evidenced in patients at first diagnosis of HCC in comparison with cirrhotics; no significant difference was found in daidzein intake. Lignans intake was strictly related with wine intake; intake was significantly lower in cases only when wine was taken into account otherwise it was similar. Results can be summarized as follows: (1) there are no clear-cut differences (both qualitative or quantitative) between cirrhotics and HCC patients in the overall daily caloric intake while; (2) definite differences exist in the intake of some of the phytoestrogens (genistein, SEC, MAT); (3) differences between cases and controls in SEC and MAT are mainly attributable to lower alcohol intake in cases while; (4) significantly lower genistein intake in HCC only seems due to personal preferences of patients. In conclusion, these differences that we have evidenced in the diet in regard to estrogen-like substances may be relevant in modulating the risk of developing HCC in cirrhotic patients.

The liver presents estrogen receptors alpha and beta. As for breast cancer, a variant form of estrogen receptor alpha transcript (ER) has been described in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It is derived by an exon 5-deleted transcript (vER), which lacks the hormone-binding domain of the receptor but, being intact in the DNA-binding domain, maintains constitutive transcriptional activity. HCCs presenting vER have an extremely aggressive clinical course and are unresponsive to the antiestrogen tamoxifen. On the other hand, megestrol, a drug able to block both the wild type and the variant form of ER, influence the clinical course of HCC presenting vER. The presence of vER is associated with elevated cancer cell proliferation rate.

Cimetidine inhibits the tubular secretion of creatinine, without altering the glomerular filtration rate (GFR). During cimetidine administration the creatinine/inulin clearance ratio approaches unity in patients with renal failure. We determined the clearance of lithium (an index of fluid delivery to the distal nephron), inulin (a measure of the actual GFR) and creatinine during cimetidine administration to investigate the occurrence of tubular creatinine secretion in patients with compensated cirrhosis. A total of 12 patients with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis were studied initially. The subjects consumed a stable diet containing 100 mmol of sodium. On successive days, 9 h creatinine clearances were measured, first without and then with the oral administration of cimetidine (400 mg as a priming dose, followed by 200 mg every 3 h). During the first study day, 4 h renal lithium clearance was also calculated. A further group of five patients with fully compensated cirrhosis underwent the measurement (on successive days) of plasma inulin clearance, first without and then with the oral administration of cimetidine (same schedule of drug administration). Cimetidine administration unmasked a marked overestimation of GFR when calculated as creatinine clearance (baseline, 138+/-20 ml/min; +cimetidine,89+/-13 ml/min; P < 0.01). Consequently, during cimetidine administration the calculated lithium fractional excretion (a measure of the fraction of filtered sodium load that is delivered to the loop of Henle) rose from 21.4+/-13.2% to 32.3+/-18.9% (P < 0.05), and the ratio between absolute distal tubular sodium reabsorption and filtered sodium load rose from 20.6+/-13.1% to 31.6+/-19.3% (P < 0.01). Cimetidine caused no significant decrease in the actual GFR (i.e. inulin clearance) when administered to the second group of patients with compensated cirrhosis. Our data demonstrate significant tubular secretion of creatinine in patients with compensated cirrhosis and, consequently, a marked overestimation of GFR and filtered sodium load and an underestimation of the fractional distal tubular sodium reabsorption when these parameters are calculated by means of the traditional creatinine and lithium clearance computation. The true GFR (measured as inulin clearance) is unaffected by cimetidine administration.

Background and Study Aims: Despite the increasing use of early esophagogastroduodenoscopy, the prognostic evaluation and triage of patients who have ingested caustic material is challenging. We evaluated the usefulness of selected clinical and endoscopic parameters in predicting the risk of death after ingestion of caustic substances.Patients and Methods: Clinical and endoscopic parameters were obtained from the records of all the patients admitted to our endoscopy unit because of ingestion of caustic material between I March 1982 and 30 June 1999. Parameters significantly associated with the risk of death by univariate analysis were entered into a multivariate logistic model. The independent predictors of death by multivariate analysis were used to build a risk score system.Results: Out of 210 patients, 13 underwent emergency surgery (6.2%) and 25 died (11.9%). Multivariate analysis identified the following as independent predictors of death: age (10-year intervals; odds ratio [OR] 2.4; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.1), ingestion of strong acids (OR 7.9; 1.8-35.3), white blood cell count at admission greater than or equal to 20 000 units/mm(3) (OR 6.0: 1.3-28), deep gastric ulcers (OR 9.7; 1.4-66.8). and gastric necrosis (OR 20.9; 4.7-91.8). The values of the risk score system devised from the results of the multivariate analysis ranged from 1 to 16. No patient scoring < 10 points died and just one of the patients scoring > 14 points survived.Conclusion: Age, ingestion of a strong acid, leucocytosis, deep gastric ulcers, and gastric necrosis are predictive of death after caustic ingestion. A risk score system including these predictors may be useful in prognostic evaluation.

Variant liver oestrogen receptor transcripts in hepatocellular carcinoma are associated with aggressive clinical course and unresponsiveness to tamoxifen. To evaluate the impact on survival and on tumour growth of megestrol (progestin drug acting at post-receptorial level) we enrolled 45 patients with HCC characterized by variant liver oestrogen receptors in a prospective, randomized study with megestrol vs. placebo. Presence of variant oestrogen receptors was determined by RT/PCR. 24 patients were randomized to no treatment and 21 to therapy with megestrol 160 mg day–1. Results were analysed by Kaplan-Meier and Cox methods. Survival of hepatocellular carcinoma characterized by variant oestrogen receptors was extremely poor (median survival 7 months); megestrol significantly improved survival (18 months) (P = 0.0090). Tumour growth at one year was significantly slowed down in megestrol-treated patients (P = 0.0212). Bilirubin levels, presence of portal thrombosis, HBV aetiology and treatment were identified at univariate analysis as factors significantly associated with survival; at multivariate analysis, only megestrol therapy (P = 0.0003), presence of HBV infection (P = 0.0009) and presence of portal vein thrombosis (P = 0.0051) were factors independently related with survival. (1) Megestrol slows down the aggressive tumour growth of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma characterized by variant estrogen receptors and (2) is also able to favourably influence the course of disease, more than doubling median survival. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic factors at presentation and survival in Italian patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Clinical and demographic data of 176 patients consecutively observed from 1993 to 1997 were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. Overall median survival was 18 months. At univariate analysis, low albumin, high bilirubin, high alkaline phosphatase, high alpha-fetoprotein (AFP); high platelet count, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positivity, the presence of ascites, of encephalopathy, of portal vein thrombosis (PVT), male sex, no treatment, poor differentiation, untreatable tumours and incidental diagnosis were each associated with shorter survival. HBsAg-positive subjects more often presented with untreatable lesions or diffuse tumours (P=0.001 and P=0.007, respectively) and had significantly worse survival (P=0.0057). By multiple regression analysis, low albumin, high bilirubin, abnormal AFP, presence of PVT and of untreatable lesions were independent risk factors for worse survival. Thus, the most important factors influencing survival are the degree of functional impairment of the liver, the presence of hepatitis B viral (HBV) infection, the type of diagnosis and the aggressiveness of the tumour.

OBJECTIVE: Coinfection with hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) viruses is associated with a more severe liver disease, increased frequency in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma, and resistance to interferon (IFN) therapy when performed with the standard dosages used in single infections. In the attempt to verify whether the outcome of IFN therapy in patients with hepatitis B and hepatitis C coinfection can be improved, we have planned a prospective, randomized trial with medium to high dosages of interferon three times a week for 6 months. METHODS: Thirty patients with HBV-HCV coinfection, and chronic hepatitis were randomized to receive either 6 or 9 MU α-interferon three times a week for 6 months. Patients were HBsAg positive, anti-HBe positive, HBV DNA negative by dot blot (6/30 positive by polymerase chain reaction), and anti-HCV-positive, HCV RNA positive. Pretreatment and posttreatment liver biopsies were performed. RESULTS: Five patients treated with 9 MU IFN consistently cleared HCV RNA and HBV DNA, whereas none of those treated with 6 MU reacted in a similar fashion (p = 0.045). Responders showed significant improvement of histological activity index in comparison with nonresponders (mean Ishak score pretreatment versus posttreatment p = 0.002). Long term follow-up showed that none of the patients treated with high doses developed cirrhosis whereas 4/14 treated with low doses did develop cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: Even though the percentage was not very high, the sustained response, the striking histological improvement, and the lack of development of cirrhosis achieved in these patients, indicate that with HBV-HCV coinfection, a trial with high doses of interferon is strongly recommended.

Clinical course in hepatocellular carcinoma may be very different. We prospectively evaluated 96 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma unsuitable for radical therapy to investigate factors that could influence survival. Clinical, pathologic, and molecular data of patients were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis. The overall actuarial probability of survival at year 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 was 72%, 41%, 38%, 24%, 20%, and 9%. At univariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (P =.0082); alkaline phosphatase (P =.0281); bilirubin (P =.0076); etiology (P =.0001); increment of tumor mass at month 3 (P =.0051); type of estrogen receptor (ER) in the tumor (P =.0000); prothrombin time (P =.0003); and portal vein thrombosis (P =.0000) had prognostic significance. At multivariate analysis, only type of ER (P =.0000) and bilirubin (P =.0030) showed independent predictive value for mortality. Survival was significantly longer in patients with wild-type estrogen receptors (P =.0000). Cumulative probability of survival at year 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 was 94%, 66%, 52%, 43%, 35%, and 18% for wild-type and 51%, 21%, 16%, and 9% for variant estrogen receptors (no patients alive after 4 years). Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive patients with variant ERs had a median survival of 8 months versus 45 months in anti-hepatitis C virus-positive patients with wild-type ERs (P =.0001). In conclusion, (1) the presence of variant liver ER transcripts in the tumor was the strongest negative predictor of survival in inoperable hepatocellular carcinoma; (2) their presence was associated with spontaneous survival significantly worse than in patients with wild-type estrogen receptors; and (3) HBsAg-positive patients with variant receptors were characterized by the worst survival.