This paper portrays the current state of practice of a corporate foresight unit within a multinational automotive company, working with this task assignment for more than three decades. It describes how the early detection of medium- to long-term developments in the broader business environment, including social and market developments, is integrated into innovation and strategy processes. The purpose of this paper is to give an account of foresight practice in an automotive company that (1) covers the full range of roles and practices of a mature foresight group, (2) describes case examples how such roles and practices are played out in practice and (3) concludes with general recommendations for organizational design and processes. The paper highlights five major fields of foresight practice which encompass strategic issues in different working fields: early detection in new business environments, trend research for the generation of product innovations, prospective evaluation of innovation ideas, exploration and development of new business, and cross-functional dissemination of future-related issues. Practice examples in each field detail features of the integration of foresight in corporate processes. The paper finishes with characterizing the organizational architecture of a mature corporate foresight group, a discussion and overall conclusions.

We consider ways in which radically uncertain and disruptive events may be introduced into corporate decisionmaking structures. As a foresight concept, "wild cards" refer to trend-breaking/trend-creating events that are very hard or even impossible to anticipate, but that should nonetheless be expected in complex and fast-evolving environments. The discussion is grounded in the experience obtained in two strategic foresight projects carried out in two industries - civil aviation and investment banking. The unique strength of these cases is that they constitute concrete and rare examples of disclosed business foresight studies that, from the start, included an explicit wild card element. Most interestingly, both of these cases are analytically linked to the September 11 event, a severe instance of a wild card. A key rationale for wild card-friendly foresight research is that it is a source of critical inputs for the generation of robust decisions precisely when the organisation is under pressure from unexpected dramatic strategic discontinuities. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Die Geistesverwandtschaft von Issues Management und Zukunftsforschung legt es nahe, enge Kooperationen zwischen beiden Feldern im Unternehmen anzulegen und gemeinsame Projekte zu verfolgen. Diese konzeptionelle Nähe gründet in dem gemeinsamen Interesse an gesellschaftlichen Umfeldveränderungen, dem Ziel der systematischen Früherkennung relevanter Entwicklungen sowie dem Ziel, Chancen und Risiken für die strategische Unternehmensführung und die Unternehmenskommunikation zu identifizieren. Die langfristig angelegte Analyse des gesellschaftlichen Wandels und möglicher Strukturbrüche in der Zukunftsforschung und die kurz- und mittelfristig orientierte Handlungsperspektive des Issues Managements ergänzen sich zeitlich und thematisch. Dieser Beitrag verdeutlicht, wie Corporate Foresight (Zukunfts- und Trendforschung) sowie strategisches Issues Management organisiert werden und als Methoden mit gemeinsamen Wurzeln, aber unterschiedlicher Stoßrichtung einen Beitrag zum Unternehmenserfolg liefern.

This paper focuses on the practice of Corporate Foresight within a multinational automotive company. It portrays how the early detection of mediumto long-term developments in the broader business environment, including social and market developments, is integrated into innovation and strategy processes. The objective of the paper is to portray the genesis of Corporate Foresight, major working areas and benefits for the company. The initial section highlights the driving forces that promoted the establishment of Corporate Foresight, namely the convergence of Strategic Policy Intelligence with Strategic Early Recognition and Futures Research. The core section highlights five major fields of foresight practice which encompass strategic issues on different levels: long-term market developments, future customer needs, prospective evaluation of innovations, business processes and organisational change and, scanning and monitoring. The paper concludes with characterising the organisational architecture of a mature corporate foresight group.

This paper focuses on the practice of corporate foresight within a multinational automotive company. It portrays how the early detection of medium- to long-term developments in the broader business environment, including social and market developments, is integrated into innovation and strategy processes. The objective of the paper is to portray the genesis of corporate foresight, major working areas and benefits for the company. The initial section highlights the driving forces that promoted the establishment of corporate foresight, namely the convergence of strategic policy intelligence with strategic early recognition and futures research. The core section highlights five major fields of foresight practice which encompass strategic issues on different levels: long-term market developments, future customer needs, prospective evaluation of innovations, business processes and organisational change, and scanning and monitoring. The paper concludes with characterising the organisational architecture of a mature corporate foresight group.

This paper addresses the need for reliable action guidelines which can be used by organisations in turbulent environments. Building on current conceptual and empirical research, we suggest an analytical approach to the management of surprising and potentially damaging events. In order to do so we propose the wild card management system. Wild cards refer to sudden and unique incidents that can constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend. As the first of the two components of such a wild card system, we advocate a weak signal methodology to take into account those wild cards that can be anticipated by scanning the decision environment. The second component, the nurture of improvisation capabilities, is designed to deal with unanticipated ongoing crises. This paper can be seen as part of a broader agenda on how to manage in conditions of continuous but unpredictable change.

This case note briefly portrays the history of a foresight-driven innovation in the auto industry from cradle to adulthood. Starting with the question how urban mobility could develop in the future, alternative scenarios were developed by a research and foresight team. The scenarios built the backdrop for workshops in which a multidisciplinary innovation team developed new concept ideas for passenger cars. One of the concept ideas that fit well with the future scenarios was a two-seater vehicle concept for urban, lifestyle-oriented target groups. With an entrepreneurial decision to create a new car brand the innovative car concept was developed and introduced to the market as the today well known "smart", a brand of DaimlerChrysler. The case study demonstrates that foresight-based innovation projects are not just an intellectual exercise but that they can initiate, accompany and reframe large-scale innovation and thus play a decisive role in shaping new realities.