本文引入贝叶斯网络分析的主要目的在于确定风险衰减系数。说明如何借助数学工具-贝叶斯网络分析确定了风险衰减系数的基本分析方法,同时也可得到有毒重气扩散条件下风险的衰减系数,最终完成了风险叠加模型。

<正>一、项目介绍"社会重大活动安全风险评价技术研究"是"十一五"科技攻关项目—"社会治安风险、动态预警、综合防控体系效能评估研究"的子课题。本子课题主要研究和分析影响社会重大活动安全风险的主要因素,根据主要风险类型确定社会重大活动的确定原则及其可接受风险基准及安全风险分析评价方

Taking the emergency event that tens of thousands passengers were delayed at Beijing West Railway Station during the spring transportation of 2006 as an example, the causes, developing process as well as the response of the governor to it are analyzed in detail. Through the summary and analyses of the existing emergence management measure in Beijing West Railway Station, main problems is pointed out, such as lack of overall risk assessment, less preparation for the new emergency events, ineffective emergency management measures and lack of emphasis during recovery. Based on these problems, countermeasures are proposed, such as building up the mechanism of long-term risk assessment, strengthening the cooperation between railway companies and local government, rebuilding and innovating hardware facilities, perfecting emergency plan and intensifying the training and emergency rehearsal.

北京西站是全国最大的客运枢纽站,西站地区管委对大规模、高密度人群的管控具有丰富的经验。我们对2007年西站地区春运工作进行了详细调查,与相关部门工作人员进行了广泛交流,结合计算机模拟,研究分析了针对密集人群管控的经验和部分现行的管控措施,总结了一些有关人员在特定场合、位置的参数,使对密集人群管控的经验、措施能够更广泛地应用。