Modern ground motion prediction equations used in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies are now almost exclusively expressed as a function of moment magnitude MW. Yet, earthquake catalogues produced by seismic observatories often provide local magnitude ML only. It is for instance the case for the Laboratoire de Détection Géophysique (LDG) catalogue recently published by Duverger et al. (2021) for mainland France. A conversion relationship was proposed by Cara et al. (2015) from ML (LDG) to MW. It appears however that this relationship does not result in a good fit when compared to recently compiled MW values for France and neighboring areas (Laurendeau et al., 2020). In this work, we propose a new conversion relationship based on the inversion of ML-MW couples for events present in both the LDG catalogue and the compilation of Laurendeau et al. (2021). In order to avoid the choice of an arbitrary number of segments to model the MW=f(ML) relationship, the inverse problem is solved in a Bayesian framework by means of the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (rj-McMC) algorithm (Green, 1995; Bodin et al., 2012). The number of segments, as well as their respective slopes and intercepts, are jointly invert for. As moment magnitude uncertainty is not known, it is also considered as an unknown, while the ML uncertainties provided in the LDG catalogue are fully accounted for by random sampling during the McMC process. We observe a geographical dependence of the differences between the available MW values and those obtained from calculation so a location-dependent term is also modeled. This allows to account for the regional attenuation variations that can affect ML estimates. The new conversion law is then applied to the full LDG catalogue and its impact on seismic hazard assessment is explored.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) requires the definition of seismic source models (SSM) that describe the spatial variations of the seismic activity over the region of interest. They can include and combine active faults, seismotectonic area source polygons as well as zoneless, continuous descriptions of the seismicity. In this contribution, we present the different components of the source model we developed to update the probabilistic seismic hazard model for continental France that was published by Drouet et al. (2020).Particular effort was dedicated to produce a new historical and instrumental catalogue, homogenized in moment magnitude, with location and magnitude uncertainty estimates. The three area source models used in the previous study were also revised in order to extend them up to 300 km away from the political borders so as to allow seismic hazard calculations at longer return periods. The recently published SSM of the ESHM20 was used to that end. We also explored new methodologies to build zoneless models with less arbitrary choices. Whenever possible, we involved Bayesian methodologies for the estimation of model parameters. Finally, a new feature for the updated seismic hazard map calculations is the introduction of active faults in the source model.We present preliminary depth distributions, style of faulting, maximum magnitude and frequency magnitude estimates for the various elements of this source model. Location, but more importantly magnitude uncertainties are carefully taken into account and propagated at each stage to properly honor epistemic uncertainties in the subsequent seismic hazard calculations.

ABSTRACT We present an analytical solution for the evaluation of timing errors at seismological stations. The method makes use of differential P- and S-wave arrival time measurements demeaned over a network that recorded a set of densely located seismic events. In this configuration, one can assume coincident P and S ray paths between sources and receivers, and cancel out dependencies associated with absolute event origin times, event locations, and P- or S-wave velocities in the problem. Relative timing errors can be obtained by linear inversion, using only a limited amount of input data: differential P- and S-wave arrival times, and a local VP/VS ratio. By setting at least one reference station in the network, supposed to be devoid of any timing error, one can retrieve reliable timing errors for other stations. We validate the approach against synthetic and real data. We also analyze the sensitivity of results on errors in the input data. Although picking uncertainties do affect the variability of estimates, we also identified a significant bias when an incorrect VP/VS ratio is used. However, this bias can be reduced if one uses the optimal VP/VS value that minimizes the root mean square of travel-time residuals. Application of the method to a collection of manually picked arrival times for the 2002–2003 Tricastin, France, earthquake, swarm allowed us to identify nonstationary timing errors from tenth to tens of seconds during the monitoring campaign.

<p>In this work, we present a new earthquake catalogue for metropolitan France (i.e. the part of France located in Europe), which can be used to derive parameters of interest for seismic hazard modeling in that region. The catalogue is built from the amalgamation of existing catalogues for France but also neighboring countries, for both historical (here, ante-1965) and instrumental times. It covers a period ranging from 250 to 2020. Magnitudes are homogenized as moment magnitudes (Mw) using adequate conversion laws when needed. Uncertainties on location and magnitude are also provided so they can be used to realistically quantify epistemic uncertainties in hazard models. This catalogue somehow represents an updated version of the catalogue used in Drouet et al. (2020), augmented from recently published information. It extends from -8.1°E to 11.°E in longitude and from 38°N to 51°N in order to encompass the three area source models that were used in that study. The core of this catalogue is FCAT-17 (Manchuel et al., 2018), completed using the most recent ESHM2020 catalogue, FCAT-17 being given priority on the French territory plus a 20 km buffer beyond its borders and exclusive economic zone. Then, national catalogues for neighboring countries (Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy) are also incorporated and are given full priority over their territory. The final model contains more than 45,000 events with magnitudes as low as Mw=2.0. Such low magnitudes were considered in order to provide as much constraint as possible to recurrence models, despite the fact low magnitude events are -<em>per se</em>- of little interest for seismic hazard models.</p>

Seismic event locations are usually performed by means of iterative, linearized arrival time inversion considering 1D velocity models with fixed data errors. Both the use of inaccurate velocity structure or data error estimates may however affect the quality of event location and uncertainty evaluation. Here, we test a 3D P- and S-wave velocity model built in a previous work for Metropolitan France (the part of France located in Europe) and we compare it with the “Auvergne” 1D velocity model used by BCSF-RéNaSS (Bureau Central Sismologique Français - Réseau National de Surveillance Sismique) using quarry blast data. The reason for using quarry blast data is that, to some extent, their epicentral location and depth are known, which is not the case for earthquakes. We first identify potential active quarries over the territory of Metropolitan France by comparing catalog quarry blast locations with those from quarries visible from satellite images. Relocation is achieved by means of a Hierarchical Bayesian inversion procedure in which not only the hypocentral parameters (longitude, latitude, depth, origin time) are inverted for, but also P- and S-wave arrival time errors. The area of interest is a 1° by 1° zone located between 4°E and 5°E in longitude and 44°N and 45°N in latitude, the region where the Le Teil earthquake occurred (Mw 4.9, 2019/11/11). We first demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to properly determine hypocentral parameters and data noise using two simple synthetic experiments. Then we apply it to real data and relocate 147 quarry blasts that occurred in the region between 1980 and 2020 and that were located wit the “Auvergne” 1D velocity model. Relocations obtained with the 1D and 3D model are rather similar. Estimated data errors are larger, in both cases, than the amplitude of picking uncertainties, meaning that both models could be improved, by seismic arrival time tomography for instance. They are larger in the 3D case, suggesting that, from that point of view, the 1D model is in better agreement with the data. Distances between relocated hypocenters and the closest known quarry are comparable but relocations with the 3D model are characterized by shallower hypocenters than those obtained with the 1D model, so they appear more consistent with the fact that events are quarry blasts. In both cases, some events are quite far away from the closest quarry, suggesting that some of them might be natural events.

Locating earthquakes has been a longterm problem in seismology that depends on multiple parameters like station density and spacing, azimuthal gap, velocity models, and phase pick precision. Here, we analyze the current state of the earthquake French catalog for the time period between 2010 until 2018, which we divide into different regions: the Alps, Massif Central, the West, the Pyrenees, the Grand-East and the North. We perform multiple location synthetic tests using as benchmark the earthquake catalog and the evolution of the French seismic network to quantify the improvements in 1) earthquake location through time and 2) the error locations and their uncertainties. For such endeavors, we use NonLinLoc to perform the synthetic tests varying, as input, the stations, the number of stations and phase picks, 1D velocity models and 3D velocity models, and to understand the changes in 1) earthquake hypocenters, 2) ellipsoidal errors and 3) posterior density functions. Then, we relocate the entire catalog using NonLinLoc including 3D velocity models (where available) and compare the hypocentral location differences when we relocate the catalog with 1D velocity models. Additionally, we estimate a quality factor for each of the located earthquakes and report the changes on the quality factor with the temporal evolution of the national seismic network. The resulting catalog and its associated error location will help future seismic hazard estimations in the Metropolitan French area.

In this contribution we discuss the dynamic development of hydraulic fractures, their evolution and the resulting seismicity during fluid injection in a coupled numerical model. The model describes coupling between a solid that can fracture dynamically and a compressible fluid that can push back at the rock and open fractures. With a series of numerical simulations we show how the fracture pattern and seismicity change depending on changes in depth, injection rate, Young's Modulus and breaking strength. Our simulations indicate that the Young's Modulus has the largest influence on the fracture dynamics and the related seismicity. Simulations of rocks with a Young's modulus smaller than 10 GPa show dominant mode I failure and a growth of fracture aperture with a decrease in Young's modulus. Simulations of rocks with a Young's modulus higher than 10 GPa show fractures with a constant aperture and fracture growth that is mainly governed by a growth in crack length and an increasing amount of mode II failure. These results are very important for the prediction of fracture dynamics and seismicity during fluid injection, especially since we see a transition from one failure regime to another at around 10 GPa, a Young's modulus that lies in the middle of possible values for natural shale rocks.

Localization of signals is a widely applied technique used in different areas of science telecommunication, medicine, or seismology. In this work, we study microseismic emissions due to stick-slip events during pneumatic fracture in a transparent setup at laboratory scale and apply a localization method "Estimated Source Energy Homogeneity." The seismic location results are compared with the image correlation results for displacement maps corresponding to the event times. We have observed (using optics and acoustics) that the movement starts inside the porous medium and progresses toward the channel tips, eventually causing channels to grow further. This finding could be of interest in understanding fluid-induced earthquake nucleation processes. Similar to in-site applications of pneumatic or fluid-related fracturing, it shows that the area influenced extends beyond the fracture tips. This also shows why even after the end of pumping, we may get earthquakes, such as in the Basel case (Haring et al., 2008, ). Plain Language Summary An uncompacted granular medium having a fixed grain size is placed between two glass plates as a very thin layer. Using air injection, this porous medium is compacted and fractured. This system is monitored using a camera capable of recording more than 100 images per second and accelerometers which can record vibrations in high frequencies. During this injection, earthquake-like vibrations are generated by the system. Sources of these vibrations are located using acoustic recordings and image processing. We have observed that the channeling starts with a compaction inside the medium; this compaction propagates toward the channel tips and cause them to advance further inside the medium.

Modeling of fluid injection processes into a deformable porous medium is a challenging area of physics that has a wide range of applications like the food, construction, and petroleum industries. In this research, we investigate pneumatic fracturing of a porous medium experimentally and numerically in a Hele-Shaw cell. In the experiments, we inject air into the porous medium (initially random loose packed) to create compaction, channeling, and fracturing while monitoring the cell with accelerometers and a high-speed camera. Furthermore, we develop a numerical model in two steps: (1) a poroelastoplasticity-based model to explain dynamic fluid pressure variations and (2) a solid stress model based on Janssen's theory. The contributions of the different pressure sources air in channels and solid stress in the experiments, and the simulations are compared with respect to amplitude and frequency. Afterward, the variations of the normal stress exerting on the plates are convolved with a Lamb Wave green function to generate acoustic emissions numerically. The physics behind the evolution of the experimentally recorded power spectrum of the out-of-plane plate vibrations are explained using numerical models. The frequency bands (in the simulated power spectra) are influenced by the size of the opened channels and the Hele-Shaw cell and are in the same range with the experimentally measured peaks of the acoustic emissions.

Long-period long-duration (LPLD) seismic events are low-amplitude tremor-like seismic signals that have been observed in some microseismic monitoring data sets acquired during hydraulic fracturing operations. The LPLD events have been interpreted to be associated with slow slip along preexisting fractures presumed to either have high clay content or be misaligned with respect to the current-day principal stress directions. However, a recent study indicates that regional earthquakes, when recorded on vertical down-hole monitoring arrays, have similar signal characteristics to LPLD events and that care must be taken when analyzing and interpreting such signals. Using data from a hydraulic fracturing microseismic data set in which LPLD events have previously been identified and well documented, together with data from the EarthScope Transportable USArray, we have investigated the hypothesis that the documented LPLD events were regional earthquakes. We have determined that the LPLD events corresponded with signals recorded on the USArray at distances of up to 350 km away from the injection well, although they were not listed in any regional earthquake catalog. The spatial coverage of the USArray allows the sources of many of the LPLD events to be relocated outside of the treatment well area and thus suggests that they are regional earthquakes of magnitude smaller than M2.5 rather than locally sourced events related to the hydraulic fracturing stimulation process.

Fluid induced brittle deformation of porous medium is an event commonly present in everyday life. From an espresso machine to volcanoes, from food industry to construction, it is possible to see traces of this phenomenon. In this work, analogue models are developed (similar to the previous work of Johnsen [1]) in a linear geometry, with confinement and at low porosity to study the instabilities that occur during fast motion of fluid in dense porous materials: fracturing, fingering, channeling (Figure 1a). We study these complex fluid/solid mechanical systems using two imaging techniques: optical imaging using a high speed camera (1000 fps), high frequency resolution accelerometers and piezoelectrical sensors. Additionally, we develop physical models rendering for the fluid mechanics (similar to the work of Niebling [2,3]) in the channels and the propagation of microseismic waves [4] around the fracture (Figure 2). We then compare a numerical resolution of this physical system with the observed experimental system.

Acoustic signal localization is a complex problem with a wide range of industrial and academic applications. Herein, we propose a localization method based on energy attenuation and inverted source amplitude comparison (termed estimated source energy homogeneity, or ESEH). This inversion is tested on both synthetic (numerical) data using a Lamb wave propagation model and experimental 2D plate data (recorded with 4 accelerometers sensitive up to 26 kHz). We compare the performance of this technique with classic source localization algorithms: arrival time localization, time reversal localization, and localization based on energy amplitude. Our technique is highly versatile and out-performs the conventional techniques in terms of error minimization and cost (both computational and financial).

Clay formations are present in reservoirs and earthquake faults, but questions remain on their mechanical behavior, as they can vary from ductile (aseismic) to brittle (seismic). An experiment, at a scale of 10 m, aims to reactivate a natural fault by fluid pressure in shale materials. The injection area was surrounded by a dense monitoring network comprising pressure, deformation, and seismicity sensors, in a well-characterized geological setting. Thirty-two microseismic events were recorded during several injection phases in five different locations within the fault zone. Their computed magnitude ranged between -4.3 and -3.7. Their spatiotemporal distribution, compared with the measured displacement at the injection points, shows that most of the deformation induced by the injection is aseismic. Whether the seismicity is controlled by the fault architecture, mineralogy of fracture filling, fluid, and/or stress state is then discussed. The fault damage zone architecture and mineralogy are of crucial importance, as seismic slip mainly localizes on the sealed-with-calcite fractures which predominate in the fault damage zone. As no seismicity is observed in the close vicinity of the injection areas, the presence of fluid seems to prevent seismic slips. The fault core acts as an impermeable hydraulic barrier that favors fluid confinement and pressurization. Therefore, the seismic behavior seems to be strongly sensitive to the structural heterogeneity (including permeability) of the fault zone, which leads to a heterogeneous stress response to the pressurized volume.

Summary Recent studies have identified and characterized a type of seismic event, known as an LPLD event, which have been detected in microseismic data sets acquired during hydraulic fracturing operations (e.g. Das and Zoback, 2011 ; 2013a ; 2013b ; Mitchell et al., 2013 ; Kwietniak, 2015 ). These events have been interpreted to be manifestations of slow-slip along preexisting fractures which are presumed to either be misaligned with respect to the current day principal stress directions or have high clay content ( Das & Zoback, 2013a ; 2013b ). A study by Caffagni et al. (2015) advise that care must be undertaken when analyzing and interpreting such events as regional earthquakes could be misinterpreted as LPLD events in vertical downhole seismic monitoring array data sets. We here show that signals associated in time with such LPLD events could be observed on many Earthscope USArray stations, even at distances up to 350 km from the injection well. The spatial coverage of the USArray enabled all of the LPLD events to be relocated in the North Texas-Oklahoma region, outside of the stimulated reservoir volume. We conclude that these LPLD events are not directly related to the hydraulic fracture stimulation process or the induced reservoir deformation process.

The characterization and comprehension of irreversible rock deformation processes due to fluid flow is a challenging problem with numerous applications in many fields. This phenomenon has received an ever-increasing attention in Earth Science, Physics, with many applications in natural hazard understanding, mitigation or forecast (e.g. earthquakes, control the mechanical stability of rock and soil formations during the injection or extraction of fluids, landslides with hydrological control, volcanic eruptions), or in the industry, as CO2 sequestration. In this study, analogue models are developed (similar to the previous work of Johnsen[1] but in rectangular shape) to study the instabilities developing during motion of fluid in dense porous materials: fracturing, fingering, channelling. . . We study these complex fluid/solid mechanical systems using two imaging techniques: fast optical imaging and high frequency resolution of acoustic emissions. Additionally, we develop physical models rendering for the fluid mechanics (similar to the work of Niebling[2] but with injection of fluid) in the channels and the propagation of microseismic waves around the fracture. We then confront a numerical resolution of this physical system with the observed experimental system. The experimental setup consists in a rectangular Hele-Shaw cell with three closed boundaries and one semipermeable boundary which enables the flow of the fluid but not the solid particles. During the experiments, the fluid is injected into the system with a constant injection pressure from the point opposite to the semi-permeable boundary. The fluid penetrates into the solid using the pore network. At the large enough injection pressures, the fluid also makes its way via creating channels, fractures to the semi-permeable boundary. During the experiments acoustic signals are recorded using different sensors then, those signals are compared and investigated further in both time and frequency domains. Furthermore, during the experiments pictures of the Hele-Shaw cell are taken using a high speed camera. Thus, it is possible to visualize the solid-fluid interaction and to process images to gather information about the mechanical properties of the solid partition. The link between the visual and the mechanical wave signals is investigated. The peaks and the variation of the peaks over time on frequency domain are investigated. Those peaks are developing initially then decaying with establishing channelling network and relaxation period. These peaks are strongly influenced by the size and branching of the channels, compaction of the media, vibration of air in the pores and the fundamental frequency of the plate.