This paper presents a probabilistic and scalable methodology for areal seismic vulnerability mapping during volcanic unrest, applied in the densely urbanized Campi Flegrei area (Southern Italy), within the framework of recent national seismic mitigation policies. Over 12,700 residential buildings were surveyed using the PLINVS first-level survey form, and 8671 ordinary buildings were classified into seismic vulnerability classes (A-D). On a 250 & times; 250 m grid, two vulnerability indices were computed: an absolute index (weighted and density-sensitive) and a relative index (mean building vulnerability per cell). This spatial representation supports large-scale prioritization of mitigation actions and strategic risk planning. The method integrates GIS-based field data collection (via QField), validation through post-event inspections (AeDES), comparison with second-level assessments (CARTIS), and probabilistic damage modelling using empirical fragility curves. It also quantifies classification uncertainty (entropy, variance, consistency probability) to assess confidence in the assigned vulnerability classes. By combining typological classification with spatial aggregation, the approach provides a robust estimate of seismic exposure to inform risk modelling and emergency preparedness. About 50% of buildings fall into the highest vulnerability classes (A and B), and the method shows statistically significant agreement with post-event damage observations, as verified through a chi-square test of independence and Spearman's rank correlation analysis between assigned vulnerability class and observed usability outcome. The PLINIVS methodology has proven effective in Campi Flegrei and represents a cost-efficient, transferable screening tool for anticipatory Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in multi-hazard volcanic environments, supporting broader Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) strategies under conditions of persistent unrest and high urban exposure.

Climate-resilient land-use planning increasingly requires methods that can translate heterogeneous climate-risk knowledge into actionable territorial recommendations. This study develops the Hazard–Sector Translation Framework, a planning-oriented method for linking regional hazard pathways with affected territorial systems, land-use domains, recommendation families, planning instruments, and resilience functions. The framework was developed through a qualitative cross-regional synthesis of five Southern European regions: Sicily, Costa del Sol, Osijek-Baranja County, Central Greece, and the Troodos Mountain Range. The analysis identifies how diverse hazard pathways, including heat, drought, water scarcity, pluvial flooding, wildfire, hail, frost risk, and tourism climate-suitability pressures, become actionable through recurring land-use domains. Results show that heterogeneous regional risks converge around five main land-use resilience domains: buildings, agriculture, blue-green infrastructure, transportation, and protected-area conservation, while governance and capacity are treated separately as cross-cutting implementation conditions. The operational matrix demonstrates how region-specific hazard pathways can be converted into traceable recommendation structures without reducing local complexity. The framework does not replace detailed hazard modeling or climate-risk assessment; rather, it provides an intermediate methodological bridge between climate-risk evidence and land-use planning action. The approach is transferable to other regions seeking to organize stakeholder-derived needs and adaptation recommendations into coherent, sector-specific planning responses.

The risk/impact assessment of climate-related extreme events has been historically addressed through single-hazard approaches that so far limited the development of a comprehensive, harmonized and integrated multi-hazard modelling framework capable of holistically understanding the weight of climate impacts on complex socio-eco-technological systems, as well as the definition of possible climate-resilient development pathways (IPCC, 2022). The expected increase in frequency and magnitude of meteorological hazards aggravated by climate change often manifests itself through the occurrence of complex interactions, characterised by compound events (e.g., floods and landslides, triggered by heavy rainfalls) and cascading effects (e.g., forest fires fuelled by persistent drought, triggered by heat wave conditions).Depending on how the combination of these events occurs over time and space, the impacts resulting from multi-hazard conditions might be greater than the sum of the effects of individual hazards, and the nature of the damage will vary depending on both the complexity and interdependencies between hazards and/or impacts involved. Understanding the implications of compound events (whether coincident or consecutive) on specific categories of risk receptors – and of cascading effects arising from the propagation of impacts across assets and services – is the starting point to develop an asset-level modelling framework that effectively supports and orients decision-making processes towards the identification of strategies and measures to improve resilience.In this perspective, a paradigm shift towards an effective multi-hazard impact modelling approach requires that 1) the possible interactions between hazards, and their dependence on global warming and climate change trends are taken into account, 2) the multi-sectoral consequences of complex impact scenarios leading to cascading effects are identified, and 3) the effect of possible organizational, spatial, functional and physical resilience measures targeting multiple hazards are evaluated.This contribution presents the holistic multi-hazard impact modelling framework developed within the EU-funded Horizon Europe ICARIA Project (Improving ClimAte Resilience of crItical Assets, www.icaria-project.eu, GA: 101093806). The framework aims at ensuring consistency in the analysis across different hazard categories (heat waves, forest fires, droughts, floods, storm surges, and wind gusts, including compound events), a harmonized evaluation of exposure and vulnerability of critical assets (buildings, open spaces and infrastructures) and services (water, transport, energy, waste, natural areas, and tourism sectors) potentially at risk, and the potential tangible direct and indirect impacts of complex multi-hazard scenarios, including cascading effects across interconnected service networks and systems. The modelling framework is also designed to quantify the benefits of resilience strategies and measures and to define suitable, sustainable and cost-effective solutions for climate resilience.The methodological approach is grounded on interconnected “elementary bricks”, namely Hazard, (H) Exposure (E), Vulnerability (V), Dynamic Vulnerability (DV), and Damage (D), framed with respect to time and space interdependencies and interacting with local Coping Capacity (CC), Adaptive Capacity (AC) and Transformative Capacity (TC) as main resilience components. The contribution introduces relevant taxonomies, replicable modelling workflows, and quantifiable impacts and resilience metrics applicable in different geographical contexts, proposing a service-oriented implementation approach aimed at maximising the exploitation of existing models and data while introducing specific methods to address uncertainties and data/knowledge gaps.

Addressing the intertwined challenges of climate change requires embedding principles of climate-resilient development — carbon neutrality, adaptation, and well-being — into sectoral and cross-sectoral transformations. However, conventional approaches often fail to deliver the systemic change required to meet these goals at regional and local levels. This paper presents findings from the CLIMEMPOWER project, a Horizon Project that applies science-driven methodologies with community priorities to support climate-resilient development in five South European regions (Andalusia, Central Greece, Sicily, Cyprus, Osijek-Baranja County).The paper presents the process of establishing the Community of Practice in Sicily, a region particularly vulnerable to climate-induced risks such as heatwaves, pluvial flooding, and drought. The CoP (established by the Sicilian Region with the support of Plinivs) engaged policymakers, public officials at regional and metropolitan levels, and researchers in a collaborative effort to address these pressing challenges. Through the co-design process, a key priority emerged: the development of tools to assess and ensure the climate-proofing of investments to be submitted for EU funding under the 2021–2027 financial programs.To achieve this objective, the collaborative efforts can be viewed from a dual perspective: on one hand, climate models, based on detailed analyses of hazards and expected impacts, provide science-driven insights that help institutions in making informed decisions to enhance regional resilience. On the other hand, to address the priorities of local governments and institutions in allocating resources for new infrastructure or the renovation of existing ones, the models identify vulnerabilities and offer recommendations to identify the climate benefits and social, economic co-benefits that can be achieved based on the proposed actions.This process ensures that investments align with long-term climate resilience goals and that climate risks are considered early in the development and design stages.These initiatives aim to improve the region's ability to allocate resources efficiently, prioritizing actions that are capable of simultaneously delivering significant social, economic, and environmental co-benefits for local communities. The study emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and stakeholder engagement to achieve equitable and effective climate transitions, providing actionable insights for researchers, policymakers, public officials and practitioners striving to operationalize climate resilience and enhance regional adaptive capacities.

This study presents the ClimEmpower framework, a user-driven approach to enhancing climate resilience across five climate-vulnerable regions in Southern Europe: Costa del Sol (Spain), Central Greece, the Troodos Mountains (Cyprus), Osijek-Baranja County (Croatia), and Sicily (Italy). The project employs a region-specific methodology that integrates climate risk assessments, stakeholder engagement through Communities of Practice (CoPs), and the development of innovative climate services tailored to local needs. These regions, characterized by unique environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities, face shared hazards such as droughts, heatwaves, and floods, alongside region-specific challenges like salinization and biodiversity loss. ClimEmpower identifies critical gaps in high-resolution data, cross-sectoral collaboration, and capacity-building efforts, underscoring barriers to effective adaptation. This work aims to provide a foundational resource, offering a comprehensive overview of the current situation, including needs, gaps, priorities, and expectations across the target regions. By establishing this baseline, it facilitates future research and comparative analyses, contributing to the development of robust, region-specific resilience strategies. The ClimEmpower framework offers scalable and replicable solutions aligned with the European Green Deal’s climate resilience goals, advancing adaptation planning and providing actionable insights for broader European initiatives.

Arid and semi-arid regions, including Cyprus, are increasingly experiencing severe weather events due to climate change. These events, characterized by prolonged droughts and flash floods, pose significant challenges to the environment, economy, and societal well-being. This paper aims to analyze the challenges of Flood Risk Management (FRM) in dry areas, focusing on Cyprus as a case study. It reviews historical data on temperature and rainfall patterns, flood types, and severity to propose effective, nature-based mitigation measures. The study examines temperature and rainfall trends over the last 30 years in Cyprus, categorizes floods since 1859 based on severity, and identifies prevalent flood types. The investigation reveals a decrease in annual rainfall and an increase in average temperatures in Cyprus, leading to heightened flood risks. The study categorizes floods into fluvial, pluvial, flash, and coastal types, with pluvial floods being the most common due to urbanization. The paper underscores the role of community and individual participation in adopting nature-based solutions such as permeable materials, rain gardens, tree planting, and roof gardens. Addressing flood risks in Cyprus requires a combined effort of government initiatives and community engagement. The adoption of sustainable, eco-friendly practices can significantly mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on flood hazards. This holistic approach is imperative for enhancing resilience against future climate-related challenges in Cyprus and similar arid regions.

This research work provides a stability study for a double masonry dome during its construction process and, a consideration of the possible effects that the procedure followed for building the structure has on its current mechanical behaviour. In particular, the analysis is carried out on the Baroque dome of Santa Maria alla Sanita in Naples, a relatively small dome with a span of 12 m. The main contribution of the paper consists of making a hypothesis about the different phases of construction and demonstrating that the dome was in equilibrium during these different phases. This aspect has been rarely considered when analysing historical structures. The theoretical framework assumed refers to Limit Analysis in which the masonry is modelled as composed of rigid-unilateral material. To assess the stability of the dome, the study proposes an equilibrium analysis performed both graphically and analytically, by using the graphic statics and the membrane analysis. The results obtained from the two methods are also compared, at each stage of construction. Besides the classical graphical methodology based on the slicing technique, the membrane equilibrium solution provides a wider repertoire of equilibrium states, since it allows for biaxial stress fields and is here implemented with a new method for which the surface and the stress potential are both approximated through simplicial surfaces based on the same triangulation. This more refined analysis confirms the results obtained through graphic statics giving wider geometrical safety margins and a more detailed interpretation of the non-axisymmetric loading cases

The study of the behaviour of masonry structure is of large relevance for the preservation of architectural heritage, especially in areas subjected to seismic actions.This contribution provides a methodology for the evaluation of the maximum sustainable pseudo-static horizontal load, representative of a seismic action, under the framework of the Static Theorem of Limit Analysis.In particular, we adopt the Continuous Airy-based for Stress Singularities (CASS) method, consisting in the discretization of a domain in plate-type finite elements, for the identification of admissible stress fields in equilibrium with given external and internal loads, under the Heyman hypotheses of a normal, rigid, no tension material.In particular, the limit horizontal force is the maximum load for which an equilibrated solution still exists.The considered application show the effectiveness of the method in dealing with the proposed problem, and is the base for the development of fragility curves for seismic curves at different local scales.

Large-scale risk assessments relevant to natural hazards are commonly based on very poor exposure and vulnerability data, often drawn from census data. In fact, obtaining a detailed knowledge of the built heritage is a very hard task especially for those countries, like Italy, characterized by very high urban density and large variety of building typologies, where a building-by-building knowledge can sound as a utopian ambition. Nevertheless, exposure and vulnerability are two of the four factors governing, along with hazard and capacity, risk convolution, and hence their uncertainties yield to corresponding uncertainties in the resulting expected losses. The lack of suitable information on building typologies is responsible of very strong simplifications in risk analyses, like the assumption of the same building typologies, indistinctly scattered all over the Country territory, without distinctions at a local or at a regional level. With the goal of improving exposure description and reducing such uncertainties, since 2014 the Italian Civil Protection Department (ICPD) has undertaken a new research branch in the framework of ReLUIS (Network of University Laboratories in Earthquake Engineering) projects, dedicated to territorial analyses, by funding also the CARTIS project. The project has the goal to characterize the building structural typologies trough a data collection at a local and an extensive scale in Italy, with the final aim to improve the reliability of seismic risk analyses. The paper describes the method and some first statistics so far elaborated.

Campi Flegrei (Italy) is among the areas with the greatest volcanic explosive risk in the world due to the dangerousness of the expected hazards, the high exposed value (about 500,000 people will be evacuated during the “alarm phase”), and the vulnerability of the urban settlements under the effect of the volcanic phenomena. The last two dramatic bradyseism phases occurred in 1969–1972 and 1982–1984 when Pozzuoli town was affected by rapid ground inflation, which brought an overall higher level of about 3.5 m and caused numerous earthquakes (M ≤ 4.2), with severe damage to buildings. During 1984, the seismicity was intense, with 33 events with 0.5 < M ≤ 3 and six with 3 < M ≤ 3.8. Subsequently, the Campi Flegrei caldera was characterized by general subsidence for about 20 years until 2005, when a new inflation period started and is still ongoing (∼1 m). The areal distribution of the recent uplift is characterized by the maximum vertical displacement in the town of Pozzuoli, with a radial decrease from the caldera center outwards. The need to better understand Campi Flegrei volcanic activity is fundamental to protecting the population from hazards linked to explosive volcanic eruptions and understanding the role of seismicity as a possible precursor of a potential eruption. In this perspective, as part of the activities of the PLINIVS Study Centre (Centre of Competence of Italian Civil Protection Department for Volcanic Risk), the authors developed a procedure, implemented in a web application, that relates the monitoring of the ground deformation with the behavior of buildings to evaluate the level of progressive damage to the ordinary Phlegraean buildings due to bradyseism in near real time. This study describes the models adopted for the three impact/risk factors (hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) used to estimate building damage.

The paper presents a mechanical-based framework for the evaluation of local-scale seismic fragility curves. The approach is oriented to a seismic vulnerability assessment of unreinforced masonry buildings and makes use of basic exposure data easily obtained from survey or available in existing database. An efficient finite element model and static nonlinear analyses are employed to assess the structural behaviour. The mechanical-based fragility curves are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations that allow to account for the uncertainties propagation. The proposed approach is tested on a case-study regarding the city centre of Cosenza, in southern Italy, using exposure information available from CARTIS database.

Seismic mitigation measures are becoming increasingly important in order to support the sustainable development of cities around the world. Disaster Risk Reduction is a consolidated field of study and an integral part of civil protection and construction practices. The definition of strategies aiming at reducing the risk requires two fundamental steps: the first consists of the evaluation of the impact in the current state while for the second, the impact is estimated having adopted appropriate mitigation strategies. The comparison between the losses (of buildings, human lives, and economic) calculated in the two steps defines the effectiveness of the mitigation measures considered. The impact is defined through the consideration of three factors: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The hazard is the probability that a fixed event occurs in a fixed period of time; the vulnerability is the probability that an element at risk reach a fixed level of damage; the exposure represents the vulnerability distribution on the invested area. Vulnerability and exposure are strictly connected: with respect to the buildings, the vulnerability depends on their typological and structural characteristics, so the exposure represents the distribution on the investigated area of these building’s features. This paper presents a procedure to define the exposure of the current state of an investigated area through the buildup of a structured database to facilitate the knowledge of the area. The database is populated using the ISTOS survey form, developed and customized by the ISTOS research center on the basis of previous works of the PLINIVS study center. Aim of the build-up of the database is the knowledge on the vulnerability distribution on the territory at the current state to have a start point for considerations on mitigation assumptions.

Ischia is a quiescent volcanic complex, characterized by several periods of activity, also of explosive typology. Each year, seismic stations detect few low-energy events, although in the past severe earthquakes occurred, causing extensive damage. The last significant seismic event, with a magnitude of 3.91, occurred on 21st August 2017, again in the municipality of Casamicciola. The hazard constituted by seismic phenomena is compounded by a high exposed value, in terms of population and buildings. From 1861 to today, the resident population has increased considerably, from 23,511 to 62,831 units, to which are added 4 million tourists a year. The high risk of the Ischia territory highlights the need to bring the sustainable planning at the centre of the debate, considering the vulnerability of the area. In this perspective, an application aimed at assessing the seismic impact scenario induced by a single seismic event is illustrated below. The aim is to show a methodological approach able to quantify the resources necessary for emergency planning and organization of operational intervention.

This article introduces the "Pre-seismic Survey Form for Masonry" (PRISM), a simplified tool for evaluating masonry structures. It aims to be user-friendly for both experienced surveyors and beginners. The primary objective is to develop PRISM as an efficient means of gathering relevant data that influences the diverse behaviors exhibited by masonry structures, covering both structural and non-structural aspects. PRISM's development involves a parametric method for identifying critical parameters by analyzing drift results from the response spectrum and horizontal static analyses. These analyses are performed on common masonry structures in European Mediterranean nations. The study investigates various factors, including facade openings, materials around openings, wall thickness, ground type, ground acceleration (g), and principal structural material. By examining 300 2D models created in SAP2000, correlations in structural responses are established. The findings of the parametric analysis significantly enrich the qualitative and quantitative comprehension of structural responses. This advancement contributes to the contemporary knowledge of prevalent masonry structures within European Mediterranean regions. The PRISM survey form employs a numeric rating scale format. Notably, PRISM enables surveyors to access field results, minimizing reliance on computers quickly. The form's design also ensures accessibility and data reliability, making it universally applicable while maintaining simplicity. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-10-015 Full Text: PDF

The numerical modeling of compressible multiphase flows is of high interest for several engineering applications. In this work, we focus on the study of pyroclastic flows arising from volcanic eruptive events. An accurate evaluation of the effects of this multiphase flow is of crucial importance for the Civil Protection for the preservation of urban settlements in volcanic areas. In this work, we propose a Finite Element formulation for the simulation of pyroclastic flows at conditions of thermal and kinetic equilibrium. This analysis belongs to the class of advection dominated problems, which are known to suffer from numerical instabilities. The required stabilization is provided by using a Variational Multiscale Method, typically used for monophase compressible flows and extended here for the first time to multiphase flows. The stabilized formulation is validated with benchmark problems for compressible flows, which are solved for both monophase and multiphase cases. A throughout comparison of the numerical results of the two different flows is also presented. Moreover, the numerical formulation is applied to the simulation of representative cases of pyroclastic flows considering large-scale computational domains and realistic material properties and initial thermal-kinematic conditions. The numerical analyses presented show the accuracy of the proposed method for the simulation of compressible multiphase flows and its suitability for risk assessment studies of urban settlements prone to be affected by pyroclastic gravity currents.

Long-lasting volcanic eruptions involving a variety of hazards have significant implications on the emergency response and on the final impact on the exposed elements. The eruption of Cumbre Vieja (La Palma, Spain), started on 19 September and ended on 13 December 2021. It was associated with earthquakes, gas emissions, lava flows, lava fountains, and tephra fallout (including large volcanic bombs) that significantly impacted the southwest of the island, caused the evacuation of more than 7,000 people and affected 1,676 buildings. In particular, the total extension of about 12 km2 of lava flows, from the fissural source to the western coast, affected 3 municipalities and cut the island in two, generating a significant disruption of transportation. A comprehensive and systematic survey of about 300 buildings affected by tephra south of the lava flow was carried out during two weeks in October 2021 in order to assess the typology of affected buildings and the associated structural and non-structural damages. Structural damage was associated with partial or total roof collapse of secondary buildings (small independent constructions for warehouse, farming and garage) and annexes (small dependent constructions annexed to the main buildings). The most common non-structural damages include clamping vertical and horizontal cracks, partial or total overturning of walls (in case of clamping or thrust of the stressed roofs), and partial damage of several elements (tiles, plaster, curbs, canopies, parapets, windows, corrugate and fretted sheets and tarps). No major structural damage was observed on main buildings. The reason is due to the fact that primary residential and commercial buildings were considered necessary to meet basic needs of the local population; therefore, roofs were regularly cleaned as part of the emergency management and the daily volcanic response activity on the island. This was not the case for secondary buildings and annexes. This emphasizes the important role of clean-up operations on the resilience of buildings during long-lasting volcanic eruptions that can lapse for weeks or months. Even though structural damage has been observed only on secondary structures and annexes, the detailed impact assessment of those conducted in La Palma provides the first insights into the consequences of tephra loads on medium to weak quality buildings or constructions made with light materials (e.g., corrugated metallic tiles), which can be very common on other volcanic settings.

Long-lasting volcanic eruptions involving a variety of hazards have significant implications on the emergency response and on the final impact on the exposed elements. The eruption of Cumbre Vieja (La Palma, Spain), started on 19 September and ended on 13 December 2021. It was associated with earthquakes, gas emissions, lava flows, lava fountains, and tephra fallout (including large volcanic bombs) that significantly impacted the southwest of the island, caused the evacuation of more than 7,000 people and affected 1,676 buildings. In particular, the total extension of about 12 km2 of lava flows, from the fissural source to the western coast, affected 3 municipalities and cut the island in two, generating a significant disruption of transportation. A comprehensive and systematic survey of about 300 buildings affected by tephra south of the lava flow was carried out during two weeks in October 2021 in order to assess the typology of affected buildings and the associated structural and non-structural damages. Structural damage was associated with partial or total roof collapse of secondary buildings (small independent constructions for warehouse, farming and garage) and annexes (small dependent constructions annexed to the main buildings). The most common non-structural damages include clamping vertical and horizontal cracks, partial or total overturning of walls (in case of clamping or thrust of the stressed roofs), and partial damage of several elements (tiles, plaster, curbs, canopies, parapets, windows, corrugate and fretted sheets and tarps). No major structural damage was observed on main buildings. The reason is due to the fact that primary residential and commercial buildings were considered necessary to meet basic needs of the local population; therefore, roofs were regularly cleaned as part of the emergency management and the daily volcanic response activity on the island. This was not the case for secondary buildings and annexes. This emphasizes the important role of clean-up operations on the resilience of buildings during long-lasting volcanic eruptions that can lapse for weeks or months. Even though structural damage has been observed only on secondary structures and annexes, the detailed impact assessment of those conducted in La Palma provides the first insights into the consequences of tephra loads on medium to weak quality buildings or constructions made with light materials (e.g., corrugated metallic tiles), which can be very common on other volcanic settings.

Italy is a country with high seismic hazard, however since the delay in the seismic classification of the national territory, most of the existing building heritage does not comply with the current technical standards for buildings. The seismic events that have hit different Italian regions in recent years have highlighted the complexity of the challenge for the public bodies both in the emergency management and post-event reconstruction and in the planning of effective risk prevention and mitigation measures to be implemented in ‘peacetime’. These difficulties concern, in particular, the capacity to properly manage the financial and technical resources available and to identify the intervention priorities throughout the entire emergency cycle. For correct management, the priority is to quantify and localize, through simulations, the quantification of probable damages and to evaluate in terms of cost-benefits the possible alternative strategies for mitigation, also taking into account the potential, in terms of cost-effectiveness, of integrated measures for seismic and energy retrofitting. In this framework, the project CAESAR II (Complementary Analyses for Emergency planning based on Seismic Risks impact evaluations) has been developed as a Decision Support System for Public Authorities in charge of developing Disaster Risk Reduction plans, with the possibility of programming mid to long-term investments for public and private properties, as well as defining custom financial support mechanisms and tax incentives.