Long-term magma ocean phases on rocky exoplanets orbiting closer to their star than the runaway greenhouse threshold - the inner edge of the classical habitable zone - may offer insights into the physical and chemical processes that distinguish potentially habitable worlds from others. Thermal stratification of runaway planets is expected to significantly inflate their atmospheres, potentially providing observational access to the runaway greenhouse transition in the form of a "habitable zone inner edge discontinuity" in radius-density space. Here, we use Bioverse, a statistical framework combining contextual information from the overall planet population with a survey simulator, to assess the ability of ground- and space-based telescopes to test this hypothesis. We find that the demographic imprint of the runaway greenhouse transition is likely detectable with high-precision transit photometry for sample sizes $\gtrsim 100$ planets if at least ~10 % of those orbiting closer than the habitable zone inner edge harbor runaway climates. Our survey simulations suggest that in the near future, ESA's PLATO mission will be the most promising survey to probe the habitable zone inner edge discontinuity. We determine survey strategies that maximize the diagnostic power of the obtained data and identify as key mission design drivers: 1. A follow-up campaign of planetary mass measurements and 2. The fraction of low-mass stars in the target sample. Observational constraints on the runaway greenhouse transition will provide crucial insights into the distribution of atmospheric volatiles among rocky exoplanets, which may help to identify the nearest potentially habitable worlds.

Planet formation is expected to be severely limited in disks of low metallicity, owing to both the small solid mass reservoir and the low-opacity accelerating the disk gas dissipation. While previous studies have found a weak correlation between the occurrence rates of small planets (≲4 R ⊕ ) and stellar metallicity, so far no studies have probed below the metallicity limit beyond which planet formation is predicted to be suppressed. Here, we constructed a large catalog of ∼110,000 metal-poor stars observed by the TESS mission with spectroscopically derived metallicities, and systematically probed planet formation within the metal-poor regime ([Fe/H] ≤−0.5) for the first time. Extrapolating known higher-metallicity trends for small, short-period planets predicts the discovery of ∼68 super-Earths around these stars (∼85,000 stars) after accounting for survey completeness; however, we detect none. As a result, we have placed the most stringent upper limit on super-Earth occurrence rates around metal-poor stars (−0.75 < [Fe/H] ≤ −0.5) to date, ≤ 1.67%, a statistically significant ( p -value = 0.000685) deviation from the prediction of metallicity trends derived with Kepler and K2. We find a clear host star metallicity cliff for super-Earths that could indicate the threshold below which planets are unable to grow beyond an Earth-mass at short orbital periods. This finding provides a crucial input to planet-formation theories, and has implications for the small planet inventory of the Galaxy and the galactic epoch at which the formation of small planets started.

Studying planetary habitability has become a major emerging research area, with critical implications for future exoplanet exploration and ambitious ground- and space-based telescopes. Efforts to design and optimize these missions have been focusing on maximizing the planet yield – the number of exoplanets a survey will be able to characterize – which is not necessarily equivalent to science return. We present Bioverse, a framework to quantify the diagnostic power of nextgeneration exoplanet surveys Bioverse allows to assess the detectability of population-level trends injected in simulated planet populations. Here, we apply Bioverse to explore the requirements for a mission to probe and characterize the inner edge of the habitable zone. We show that, through probing a discontinuity in the distribution of planetary radii and bulk densities caused by the runaway greenhouse transition, the PLATO mission will likely be able to constrain this demographic feature. This will constitute the first empirical test of the habitable zone concept.We further use Bioverse to demonstrate how contextual information about a planet with a biosignature detection, such as its orbit or properties of its host star, lend or take away credibility from competing models of abiogenesis. We demonstrate that planet sample sizes ≥100 enable a strong test of a predicted correlation between past received nearultraviolet flux and the occurrence of biosignatures in the cyanosulfidic scenario for the origin of life.Probabilistic assessments that take into account the population context will be critical for an effective search for extraterrestrial life in the Universe and to constrain the origin of life.Figure 1. Detection of the Habitable Zone Inner Edge Discontinuity. We fit a population-level runaway greenhouse model (red posterior draws) to simulated radius measurements and test this hypothesis against the null hypothesis of an irradiation-independent distribution. In a large (N = 500) planet sample, the discontinuity is detected with high confidence.References:Bixel, A., & Apai, D. 2021, The Astronomical Journal, 161, 228, doi: 10.3847/1538-3881/abe042Dorn, C., & Lichtenberg, T. 2021, ApJL, 922, L4, doi: 10.3847/2041-8213/ac33afRanjan, S., Wordsworth, R., & Sasselov, D. D. 2017, Astrobiology, 17, 687, doi: 10.1089/ast.2016.1596Schlecker, M., Apai, D., Lichtenberg, T., et al., The Planetary Journal, in press. [arXiv:2309.04518]Turbet, M., Bolmont, E., Chaverot, G., et al. 2021, Nature, 598, 276, doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03873-w

We present a spectroscopic analysis of a sample of 48 M-dwarf stars (0.2 M _⊙ < M < 0.6 M _⊙ ) from the Hyades open cluster using high-resolution H -band spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey/Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) survey. Our methodology adopts spectrum synthesis with LTE MARCS model atmospheres, along with the APOGEE Data Release 17 line list, to determine effective temperatures, surface gravities, metallicities, and projected rotational velocities. The median metallicity obtained for the Hyades M dwarfs is [M/H] = 0.09 ± 0.03 dex, indicating a small internal uncertainty and good agreement with optical results for Hyades red giants. Overall, the median radii are larger than predicted by stellar models by 1.6% ± 2.3% and 2.4% ± 2.3%, relative to a MIST and DARTMOUTH isochrone, respectively. We emphasize, however, that these isochrones are different, and the fractional radius inflation for the fully and partially convective regimes have distinct behaviors depending on the isochrone. Using a MIST isochrone there is no evidence of radius inflation for the fully convective stars, while for the partially convective M dwarfs the radii are inflated by 2.7% ± 2.1%, which is in agreement with predictions from models that include magnetic fields. For the partially convective stars, rapid rotators present on average higher inflation levels than slow rotators. The comparison with SPOTS isochrone models indicates that the derived M-dwarf radii can be explained by accounting for stellar spots in the photosphere of the stars, with 76% of the studied M dwarfs having up to 20% spot coverage, and the most inflated stars with ∼20%–40% spot coverage.

Molecular oxygen is a strong indicator of life on Earth and may indicate biological processes on exoplanets too. Recent studies proposed that Earth-like O 2 levels might be detectable on nearby exoplanets using high-resolution spectrographs on future extremely large telescopes (ELTs). However, these studies did not consider constraints like relative velocities, planet occurrence rates, and target observability. We expanded on past studies by creating a homogeneous catalog of 286,391 main-sequence stars within 120 pc using Gaia DR3 and used the Bioverse framework to simulate the likelihood of finding nearby transiting Earth analogs. We also simulated a survey of M dwarfs within 20 pc accounting for η ⊕ estimates, transit probabilities, relative velocities, and target observability to determine how long ELTs and theoretical 50–100 m ground-based telescopes need to observe to probe for Earth-like O 2 levels with an R = 100,000 spectrograph. This would only be possible within 50 yr for up to ∼21% of nearby M-dwarf systems if a suitable transiting habitable-zone Earth analog was discovered, assuming signals from every observable partial transit from each ELT can be combined. If so, Earth-like O 2 levels could be detectable on TRAPPIST-1 d–g within 16–55 yr, respectively, and about half that time with an R = 500,000 spectrograph. These results have important implications for whether ELTs can survey nearby habitable-zone Earth analogs for O 2 via transmission spectroscopy. Our work provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of the ground-based capabilities to search for life beyond the solar system.

The NASA K2 mission obtained high-precision time-series photometry for four young clusters, including the near-twin 600–800 Myr old Praesepe and Hyades clusters. Hot sub-Neptunes are highly prone to mass-loss mechanisms, given their proximity to the host star and the weakly bound gaseous envelopes, and analyzing this population at young ages can provide strong constraints on planetary evolution models. Using our automated transit detection pipeline, we recover 15 planet candidates across the two clusters, including 10 previously confirmed planets. We find a hot sub-Neptune occurrence rate of 79%–107% for GKM stars in the Praesepe cluster. This is 2.5–3.5 σ higher than the occurrence rate of 16.54 − 0.98 + 1.00 % for the same planets orbiting the ∼3–9 Gyr old GKM field stars observed by K2, even after accounting for the slightly supersolar metallicity ([Fe/H] ∼ 0.2 dex) of the Praesepe cluster. We examine the effect of adding ∼100 targets from the Hyades cluster and extending the planet parameter space under examination, and we find similarly high occurrence rates in both cases. The high occurrence rate of young, hot sub-Neptunes could indicate either that these planets are undergoing atmospheric evolution as they age, or that planetary systems that formed when the Galaxy was much younger are substantially different than from today. Under the assumption of the atmospheric mass-loss scenario, a significantly higher occurrence rate of these planets at the intermediate ages of Praesepe and Hyades appears more consistent with the core-powered mass-loss scenario for the origin of the planet radius valley, compared to the photoevaporation scenario.

The demographics of young exoplanets can shed light on their formation and evolution processes. Exoplanet properties are derived from the properties of their host stars. As such, it is important to accurately characterize the host stars since any systematic biases in their derivation can negatively impact the derivation of planetary properties. Here we present a uniform catalog of photometrically derived stellar effective temperatures, luminosities, radii, and masses for 4865 young (<1 Gyr) stars in 31 nearby clusters and moving groups within 200 pc. We compared our photometrically derived properties to a subset of those derived from spectra and found them to be in good agreement. We also investigated the effect of stellar properties on the detection efficiency of transiting short-period young planets with TESS as calculated in Fernandes et al. (2022) and found an overall increase in the detection efficiency when the new photometrically derived properties were taken into account. Most notably, there is a 1.5 × increase in the detection efficiencies for sub-Neptunes/Neptunes (1.8–6 R ⊕ ) implying that, for our sample of young stars, better characterization of host star properties can lead to the recovery of more small transiting planets. Our homogeneously derived catalog of updated stellar properties, along with a larger unbiased stellar sample and more detections of young planets, will be a crucial input to the accurate estimation of the occurrence rates of young short-period planets.

Reliable detections of Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone remain elusive in the Kepler sample, even for M dwarfs. The Kepler sample was once thought to contain a considerable number of M-dwarf stars ( T eff < 4000 K), which hosted enough Earth-sized ([0.5, 1.5] R ⊕ ) planets to estimate their occurrence rate ( η ⊕ ) in the habitable zone. However, updated stellar properties from Gaia have shifted many Kepler stars to earlier spectral type classifications, with most stars (and their planets) now measured to be larger and hotter than previously believed. Today, only one partially reliable Earth-sized candidate remains in the optimistic habitable zone, and zero in the conservative zone. Here we performed a new investigation of Kepler's Earth-sized planets orbiting M-dwarf stars, using occurrence rate models with considerations of updated parameters and candidate reliability. Extrapolating our models to low instellations, we found an occurrence rate of η ⊕ = 8.58 − 8.22 + 17.94 % for the conservative habitable zone (and 14.22 − 12.71 + 24.96 % for the optimistic one), consistent with previous works when considering the large uncertainties. Comparing these estimates to those from similarly comprehensive studies of Sun-like stars, we found that the current Kepler sample does not offer evidence to support an increase in η ⊕ from FGK to M stars. While the Kepler sample is too sparse to resolve an occurrence trend between early and mid- to late M dwarfs for Earth-sized planets, studies including larger planets and/or data from the K2 and TESS missions are well suited to this task.

We explore atmospheric escape from close-in exoplanets with the highest mass-loss rates. First, we locate the transition from stellar X-ray and UV-driven escape to rapid Roche lobe overflow, which occurs once the 10–100 nbar pressure level in the atmosphere reaches the Roche lobe. Planets enter this regime when the ratio of the substellar radius to the polar radius along the visible surface pressure level, which aligns with a surface of constant Roche potential, is X/Z ≳ 1.2 for Jovian planets ( M p ≳ 100 M ⊕ ) and X/Z ≳ 1.02 for sub-Jovian planets ( M p ≈ 10–100 M ⊕ ). Around a Sun-like star, this regime applies to orbital periods of less than two days for planets with radii of about 3–14R ⊕ . Our results agree with the properties of known transiting planets and can explain parts of the sub-Jovian desert in the population of known exoplanets. Second, we present detailed numerical simulations of atmospheric escape from a planet like Uranus or Neptune orbiting close to a Sun-like star that support the results above and point to interesting qualitative differences between hot Jupiters and sub-Jovian planets. We find that hot Neptunes with solar-metallicity hydrogen and helium envelopes have relatively more extended upper atmospheres than typical hot Jupiters, with a lower ionization fraction and higher abundances of escaping molecules. This is consistent with existing ultraviolet transit observations of warm Neptunes, and it might provide a way to use future observations and models to distinguish solar-metallicity atmospheres from higher-metallicity atmospheres.

Understanding the occurrence of Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars is essential to the search for Earth analogues. Yet a lack of reliable Kepler detections for such planets has forced many estimates to be derived from the close-in ($2

Kepler’s short-period exoplanet population has revealed evolutionary features such as the Radius Valley and the Hot Neptune desert that are likely sculpted by atmospheric loss over time. These findings suggest that the primordial planet population is different from the Gyr-old Kepler population, and motivates exoplanet searches around young stars. Here, we present pterodactyls, a data reduction pipeline specifically built to address the challenges in discovering exoplanets around young stars and to work with TESS Primary Mission 30-minute cadence photometry, since most young stars were not preselected TESS two-minute cadence targets. pterodactyls builds on publicly available and tested tools in order to extract, detrend, search, and vet transiting young planet candidates. We search five clusters with known transiting planets: the Tucana–Horologium Association, IC 2602, Upper Centaurus Lupus, Ursa Major, and Pisces–Eridani. We show that pterodactyls recovers seven out of the eight confirmed planets and one out of the two planet candidates, most of which were initially detected in two-minute cadence data. For these clusters, we conduct injection-recovery tests to characterize our detection efficiency, and compute an intrinsic planet occurrence rate of 49% ± 20% for sub-Neptunes and Neptunes (1.8–6 R ⊕) within 12.5 days, which is higher than Kepler’s Gyr-old occurrence rates of 6.8% ± 0.3%. This potentially implies that these planets have shrunk with time due to atmospheric mass loss. However, a proper assessment of the occurrence of transiting young planets will require a larger sample unbiased to planets already detected. As such, pterodactyls will be used in future work to search and vet for planet candidates in nearby clusters and moving groups.

Present and upcoming NASA missions will be intensively observing a selected, partially overlapping set of stars for exoplanet studies. Key physical and chemical information about these stars and their systems is needed for planning observations and interpreting the results. A target star archive of such data would benefit a wide cross-section of the exoplanet community by enhancing the chances of mission success and improving the efficiency of mission observatories. It would also provide a common, accessible resource for scientific analysis based on standardized assumptions, while revealing gaps or deficiencies in existing knowledge of stellar properties necessary for exoplanetary system characterization.

Integrated light spectroscopy from galaxies can be used to study the stellar populations that cannot be resolved into individual stars. This analysis relies on stellar population synthesis (SPS) techniques to study the formation history and structure of galaxies. However, the spectral templates available for SPS are limited, especially in the near-infrared (near-IR). We present A-LIST (APOGEE Library of Infrared SSP Templates), a new set of high-resolution, near-IR SSP spectral templates spanning a wide range of ages (2–12 Gyr), metallicities ( − 2.2 < [M/H] < + 0.4) and α abundances ( − 0.2 < [ α /M] < + 0.4). This set of SSP templates is the highest resolution ( R ∼ 22, 500) available in the near-IR, and the first such based on an empirical stellar library. Our models are generated using spectra of ∼300,000 stars spread across the Milky Way, with a wide range of metallicities and abundances, from the APOGEE survey. We show that our model spectra provide accurate fits to M31 globular cluster spectra taken with APOGEE, with best-fit metallicities agreeing with those of previous estimates to within ∼0.1 dex. We also compare these model spectra to lower-resolution E-MILES models and demonstrate that we recover the ages of these models to within ∼1.5 Gyr. This library is available in https://github.com/aishashok/ALIST-library .