Most of the PCB body burden in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) of the Great Lakes is from their food. PCB concentrations were determined in lake trout from three different locations in Lake Michigan during 1994–1995, and lake trout diets were analyzed at all three locations. The PCB concentrations were also determined in alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax), bloater (Coregonus hoyi), slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus), and deepwater sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsoni), five species of prey fish eaten by lake trout in Lake Michigan, at three nearshore sites in the lake. Despite the lack of significant differences in the PCB concentrations of alewife, rainbow smelt, bloater, slimy sculpin, and deepwater sculpin from the southeastern nearshore site near Saugatuck (Michigan) compared with the corresponding PCB concentrations from the northwestern nearshore site near Sturgeon Bay (Wisconsin), PCB concentrations in lake trout at Saugatuck were significantly higher than those at Sturgeon Bay. The difference in the lake trout PCB concentrations between Saugatuck and Sturgeon Bay could be explained by diet differences. The diet of lake trout at Saugatuck was more concentrated in PCBs than the diet of Sturgeon Bay lake trout, and therefore lake trout at Saugatuck were more contaminated in PCBs than Sturgeon Bay lake trout. These findings were useful in interpreting the long-term monitoring series for contaminants in lake trout at both Saugatuck and the Wisconsin side of the lake.

We compared predatory demand by pelagic planktivorous prey fish with invertebrate production in Lake Michigan during 1987 and in Lake Ontario during 1990. Predation by the planktivores in Lake Ontario was nearly fourfold higher than in Lake Michigan (approx. 87 g wet weight∙m−2∙year−1). Predation rates on Mysis were comparable in Lakes Michigan and Ontario (approx. 21 g∙m−2∙year−1), while predation on Diporeia was markedly higher in Lake Michigan than in Lake Ontario (21.3 vs. 8.5 g wet weight∙m−2∙year−1). In Lake Ontario, predatory demand on zooplankton exceeded our best estimate of production by a factor of 1.7. Similarly, predation estimates on Mysis in Lake Ontario were 1.2–2.0 times the estimated rate of production, depending on the production model used. Lake Michigan planktivores consumed approximately 55% of available zooplankton production in 1987, indicating that competition for prey resources, if operating, was not as intense as that in Lake Ontario in 1990. It is unclear how to resolve the paradox that predation could markedly exceed available prey production in some cases. There could be sources of error in the estimates of both the supply and demand sides of these trophic relationships.

Progress toward lake trout restoration in Lake Michigan is described through 1993. Extinction of the native lake trout fishery by sea lamprey predation, augmented by exploitation and habitat destruction, resulted in an extensive stocking program of hatchery-reared lake trout that began in 1965. Sea lamprey abundance was effectively controlled using selective chemical toxicants. The initial stocking produced a measurable wild year class of lake trout by 1976 in Grand Traverse Bay, but failed to continue probably due to excessive exploitation. The overall lack of successful reproduction lakewide by the late 1970s led to the development and implementation in 1985 of a focused inter-agency lakewide restoration plan by a technical committee created through the Lake Committee structure of the Great Lakes Fishery Commission. Strategies implemented in 1985 by the plan included setting a 40% total mortality goal lakewide, creating two large refuges designed to encompass historically the most productive spawning habitat and protect trout stocked over their home range, evaluating several lake trout strains, and setting stocking priorities throughout the lake. Target levels for stocking in the 1985 Plan have never been reached, and are much less than the estimated lakewide recruitment of yearlings by the native lake trout stocks. Since 1985, over 90% of the available lake trout have been stocked over the best spawning habitat, and colonization of the historically productive offshore reefs has occurred. Concentrations of spawning lake trout large enough for successful reproduction, based on observations of successful hatchery and wild stocks, have developed at specific reefs. Continued lack of recruitment at these specific sites suggests that something other than stotk abundance has limited success. Poor survival of lake trout eggs, assumed to be related to contaminant burden, occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s, but survival has since increased to equal survival in the hatchery. A recent increase in lamprey wounding rates in northern Lake Michigan appears to be related to the uncontrolled build-up of lampreys in the St. Marys River a tributary of Lake Huron. If left uncontrolled, further progress toward restoration in the Northern Refuge may be limited.

We examine evidence that biotic factors, particularly predation, may be limiting early survival of wild lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) juveniles in many areas of the Great Lakes. The Great Lakes contain numerous potential predators of lake trout eggs and fry, some of which are recent invaders, and most of which were probably absent when lake trout most recently re-invaded the Great Lakes after the last ice age. Simple quantitative models of predation suggest that plausible assumptions about prey densities, predator feeding rates, and duration of exposure of predator to prey can lead to very high estimates of predation mortality, in some instances approaching 100%. Indirect evidence from inter-Great Lake comparisons and inland lake examples also suggest that biotic factors may impede successful lake trout colonization. Our synthesis of the evidence leads to recommendations for research to better define field feeding rates of lake trout egg and fry predators and comparative studies of densities of potential egg and fry predators on lake trout spawning reefs. Management options should be designed to provide useful information as well as achieve short-term goals. From a management standpoint we recommend that: newly constructed lake trout reefs should be placed well away from concentrations of potential predators; offshore spawning reefs should be stocked; salmonine stocking, nutrient abatement, and commercial harvest of alewives should all be considered as options to enhance survival of young lake trout; hatchery lake trout should not be stocked at sites where wild lake trout are showing signs of recovery; and exotic species expansions or introductions must be curtailed to maintain or improve on our recent successes in lake trout rehabilitation.

To explain the variation in growth and in concentration of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) among individual fish, an individual-based model (IBM) was applied to the lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) population in Lake Michigan. The IBM accurately represented the variation in growth exhibited by the different age classes of lake trout. Uncertainty analysis of the IBM revealed that mean PCB concentration for the lake trout population was most sensitive to PCB concentration in their prey. The variability in PCB concentration among lake trout individuals was not adequately explained by the IBM, unless variation in prey fish PCBs was included in the model. To accomplish this, the simulated lake trout population was divided into subsets subjected to different levels of PCB concentration in the prey fish. Thus, model results indicated that variability in prey fish PCB concentration was an important component of the variation in PCB concentration observed among individual lake trout comprising the Lake Michigan population.

Description of information needs for management of Great Lakes fisheries is complicated by recent changes in biology and management of the Great Lakes, development of new analytical methodologies, and a transition in management from a traditional unispecies approach to a multispecies/community approach. A number of general problems with the collection and management of data and information for fisheries management need to be addressed (i.e. spatial resolution, reliability, computerization and accessibility of data, design of sampling programs, standardization and coordination among agencies, and the need for periodic review of procedures). Problems with existing data collection programs include size selectivity and temporal trends in the efficiency of fishing gear, inadequate creel survey programs, bias in age estimation, lack of detailed sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) wounding data, and data requirements for analytical techniques that are underutilized by managers of Great Lakes fisheries. The transition to multispecies and community approaches to fisheries management will require policy decisions by the management agencies, adequate funding, and a commitment to develop programs for collection of appropriate data on a long-term basis.

Major changes in fish populations occurred in Lake Michigan between the early 1970s and 1984. The abundance of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and several nonnative species of salmonines increased greatly as a result of intensive stocking. The exotic alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), which had proliferated to extremely high levels of abundance in the mid-1960s, declined, particularly in the early 1980s. We believe that the sharp decline in alewives in the 1980s was caused primarily by poor recruitment during the colder than normal years of 1976–82. Several of Lake Michigan's endemic species of fish appeared to be adversely affected by alewives: bloater (Coregonus hoyi), lake herring (C. artedii), emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides), yellow perch (Perca flavescens), and deepwater sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsoni), and possibly spoonhead sculpin (Cottus ricei). All declined when alewives were abundant, and those that did not become rare, i.e. the bloater, perch, and deepwater sculpin recovered when alewives declined. We present evidence suggesting that the mechanism by which alewives affect native species is not by competition for food, as has often been hypothesized, and discuss the possibility that it is predation on early life stages. Despite the decreased availability of alewives in the early 1980s, salmonines continued to eat mainly alewives. The highly abundant alternate prey species were eaten only sparingly, but alewives still may have been abundant enough to meet the forage requirements of salmonines. Two new exotics, the pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), increased in abundance in the 1980s, and could become detrimental (particularly the salmon) to other species.

Lake trout were collected in graded-mesh gill nets and forage fishes were collected in trawls in mid December 1981 and late March 1982. The length ranges of 317 lake trout caught in December and 138 in March were 280–767 and 286–857 mm, and the age ranges I–XI and II–XIV, respectively. Three year classes (1977–79) made up almost 80% of the catches of lake trout in both sampling periods. Lake trout were most abundant at depth of 18 to 37 m in December (water temperatures, 5.5–6.8°C) and at 28–64 m in March (water temperatures, 1.0–1.3°C). Fish of the 1977–79 year classes completed 9 to 24% of their annual growth in length, and 14 to 39% of their growth in weight, between mid December and late March. Lake trout ate mainly alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus) especially young-of-the-year, in December, but primarily slimy sculpins (Cottus cognatus) in March, when alewives were mainly at depths of greater than those occupied by most lake trout. Other important food items were rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and, in deeper water, deepwater sculpins (Myoxocephalus thompsoni) Bloaters (Coregonus hoyi) were eaten only sparingly, although they were abundantly available in both sampling periods. Perhaps this species, which coevolved with the lake trout in Lake Michigan and was important in the native trout's diet, is better able to avoid capture by the trout than are the exotic alewife and rainbow smelt. It may not again become a major forage species unless the other food sources become scarce.

We used a mass balance equation relating total mortality of age II and older alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus) to their removals by predatory fish and other sources of mortality as the basis for estimating that the forage base in Lake Michigan could support an additional 13 000 to 21 000 t of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) or a total lake trout biomass between 15 000 and 23 000 t. This biomass estimate is projected with biomasses of other trout and salmon held at 1979 levels. Major premises of this approach are that (1) the sustained availability of age II and older alewives to salmonines will ultimately limit the expansion of salmonine stocks, (2) the alewife population was oscillating without trend during 1973–80, and (3) additional limited predation on alewives would be compensated by a reduction in natural mortality caused by physiological stress and disease.

Although few biological data exist on the now extinct native lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush, of Lake Michigan, historical records and interviews with former commercial fishermen strongly suggest that this once widespread resource was composed of a number of discrete spawning populations or stocks. A natural division of the resource into distinct stocks is consistent with the size of Lake Michigan and its varied physiography. The native trout may have undergone subtle genetic changes over the millennia, although we cannot determine whether the physical and behavioral differences represented different genotypes or only temporary effects of the local environment. Because of physiographic similarities among the upper Great Lakes and probable interchanges of lake trout during the last glacial period, we recommend that progeny of extant wild stocks, particularly from Lake Superior, are genetically most suitable for recolonizing Lake Michigan. Moreover, the hatchery-held parents of such fish should be infused periodically with genes of the wild or feral donor populations. Despite the sound historical basis for these recommendations, we also recognize that sufficiently high stocking rates coupled with a reduction of heavy exploitation may be even more important than heritability in obtaining self-sustaining populations.Key words: lake trout, discrete stocks, Lake Michigan, historical changes, phenotype, homing, extinction, planted strains, rehabilitation