Abstract The U.S. Sentencing Guidelines are of pivotal importance to what are collectively some of the most consequential drug policy decisions made by the federal government. As a result, they receive considerable scrutiny. Two recurring themes in recent years have been the balancing—or lack of balancing—between weight and role, and the basis for judging what relative weights of different drugs should be treated similarly. This article proposes approaches to these questions that, while surely imperfect, may prove to be important constructive steps that do not require jettisoning the overall approach.

While the criminological decision-making literature has primarily focused on risk in terms of detection or apprehension, it is merely one component of an individuals risk calculus. Making money in the illicit market carries more inherent risks than making money in the legal market, including mortality, injury and other types of victimization. Using panel data on individuals who report both illicit earnings and incidence of violent victimization and arrest, we first calculate monetary premiums associated with increased victimization risks to illicit activities. Second, we test if this depends on perceived opportunities. We hypothesize that this level of acceptability in risk in terms of violent victimization is related to ones perceived legitimate opportunities.

Despite the attention generated by high-profile cases of police violence against Black Americans, the impact of these events on citizen and police decision-making remains unsettled. Although existing studies document general effects of police violence on crime and policing, research has not adequately examined how these effects compound existing neighborhood inequalities. We examine the impact of Freddie Gray's death while in police custody in Baltimore in 2015 on violent crime, the decision to call the police and arrest clearance rates. Both violent crimes and citywide 911 calls for violent crimes significantly increased following Gray's death while arrest clearance rates for violent crimes significantly declined. Further, these changes were limited mostly to structurally disadvantaged neighborhoods. Our results demonstrate that the effects of high-profile police violence vary significantly by neighborhood disadvantage, with the largest increases in crime and decreases in police effectiveness concentrated in the most disadvantaged areas.

We propose a novel method to measure the spatial extent of cocaine flows in the US using data on the price and purity of cocaine observed in drug seizures or undercover drug purchases. We then compare the cocaine trafficking network extracted using this method to anecdotal knowledge about cocaine flows using network analytic methods. Based on the network analysis, the trafficking networks inferred from price and purity data appear to be more elaborate in their geographic extent than prior anecdotal evidence suggests. The analysis uncovers previously unrecognized flows, notably identifying multiple possible cocaine source points along the US-Canadian border, challenging the traditional and likely incomplete narrative focused on the southern border. This study demonstrates that variation in cocaine purity across space and over time can help detect unconventional patterns of cocaine flows, complementing the conventional understanding of the extent of cocaine flows.

Objectives: To provide an analysis of state-level variation in how alcohol and adult-use cannabis regulatory agencies articulate their involvement in, and pursuit of, public health goals. Methods: An important slogan in state-level campaigns to legalize adult-use cannabis was to regulate cannabis "like alcohol." We conducted a content analysis of annual reports produced by state cannabis and alcohol regulatory agencies in the United States where adult-use cannabis has been legalized to compare the reported public health orientations of each agency. Our coding domains capture references to (1) stated public health goals, (2) data collaboration with public health agencies, (3) public health efforts, and (4) law enforcement efforts. Results: Adult-use cannabis regulatory agencies reported all public health indicators more often, while alcohol regulatory agencies reported engaging in law enforcement efforts more often than cannabis regulators. Compared to states that legalized adult-use cannabis through ballot initiatives, states that legalized through their legislatures reported more public health indicators for both cannabis and alcohol regulators. We find a positive correlation within states between the public health engagement of alcohol and cannabis regulators. Conclusions: Cannabis regulatory agencies largely outperform alcohol regulatory agencies in terms of their articulated public health goals, activities, and policies. US states adopting adult-use cannabis legalization more recently, have predominantly legalized through their state legislatures and have cannabis regulators that report on a greater number of cannabis-related public health issues. More research is needed to assess whether public health-related actions reported by cannabis agencies translate into tangible public health benefits among cannabis using and affected populations.

Research SummaryTwo perceptions drive interest in finding ways of diverting more 911 calls from police to civilian first responders: (1) police responses can result in inadvertent harm to citizens and (2) many calls to which police respond require services that police often cannot provide. Thus, using other personnel may improve police-citizen relations and strengthen crime fighting by reducing extraneous police burden. Using a case study design, we conducted formative evaluations of programs that have developed beyond pilots in three large U.S. cities: Albuquerque, Atlanta, and Houston. In each city, we interviewed officials, program operators, and other stakeholders and reviewed program documents and statistics. We detail the events and forces that led to the establishment of each program, the way in which the programs have been institutionalized, and the way they interact with the Police Department. We then discuss key lessons learned for these jurisdictions.Policy ImplicationsMany U.S. cities are considering diverting some emergency calls for service from police to civilian first responders. This analysis provides evidence to aid policy makers, researchers, and other stakeholders in the development and evaluation of community responder programs. In all respects, we find that cities' unique experiences inform program design. For example, in Albuquerque, a City Hall-driven initiative established a new city agency parallel to the Police Department. In Atlanta, decarceration activists drove the initiative; the program is a city/county-funded nonprofit, more fragile in its funding. Risk aversion among call takers and dispatchers has led to low call diversion rates across all sites, but training and collaboration have shown promise to resolve this problem. Public safety officials external to the diversion programs commonly expressed concerns about first responder safety and perceptions that police are expected when 911 is called. This risk aversion has led to slower-than-expected expansion of the program within each city.

Reforms to deploy civilian responders to non-criminal emergency calls may reduce demands on police departments and reduce negative interactions between police and civilians, but there is presently little empirical evidence on the feasibility of these proposals. We develop a model to evaluate which calls could be transitioned to civilian responders based on their crime risk. We use a rich dataset of community-initiated emergency calls to Baltimore Police Department to evaluate the effect of re-tasking based on three call diversion design scenarios. We find that 22 to 57 percent of 911 calls could be assigned to civilians. We then apply Monte Carlo methods to estimate the financial and time use implications of transferring low risk calls to civilians. Under the most conservative scenario, re-tasking frees police officer time equivalent to 59 additional full-time officers (95% CI: 43 – 75 officers), about nine percent of the Department’s current patrol personnel.

This article applies analytical approaches to map illegal psychostimulant (cocaine and methamphetamine) trafficking networks in the US using purity-adjusted price data from the System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence. We use two assumptions to build the network: (i) the purity-adjusted price is lower at the origin than at the destination and (ii) price perturbations are transmitted from origin to destination. We then adopt a two-step analytical approach: we formulate the data aggregation problem as an optimization problem, then construct an inferred network of connected states and examine its properties.We find, first, that the inferred cocaine network created from the optimally aggregated dataset explains 46% of the anecdotal evidence, compared with 28.4% for an over-aggregated and 14.5% for an under-aggregated dataset. Second, our network reveals a number of phenomena, some aligning with what is known and some previously unobserved. To demonstrate the applicability of our method, we compare our cocaine data analysis results with parallel analysis of methamphetamine data. These results likewise align with prior knowledge, but also present new insights. Our findings show that an optimally aggregated dataset can provide a more accurate picture of an illicit drug network than can suboptimally aggregated data.

24/7 Sobriety programs largely focus on reducing alcohol consumption among justice-involved individuals whose alcohol use has led them to repeatedly threaten public safety. Participants are ordered to abstain from alcohol use and subject to frequent alcohol testing (e.g., twice daily breathalyzers, remote alcohol monitoring); those testing positive face an immediate sanction, typically a night or two in jail. Unlike drug courts and other forms of coerced substance use disorder treatment, 24/7 does not require participants to enter a treatment program or attend self-help group meetings; however, these approaches are not necessarily mutually exclusive. The empirical evidence suggests that participants largely abstain from heavy drinking while in the program and that 24/7 participation is associated with lower probability of criminal legal involvement and mortality. This evidence is largely based on research in the Great Plains states with large rural populations. Several questions remain about these programs (e.g., optimal program length, possible benefits of incorporating positive incentives, efficacy of different alcohol testing technologies), many of which can best be answered in an experimental setting. In addition to reviewing the existing research on 24/7, this paper highlights additional research questions and ideas for conducting randomized controlled trials with the program, especially in more urban areas.

This study examines the associations of 24/7 sobriety programs with reduced alcohol-involved offenses.

OBJECTIVE:Our goal was to develop a framework to test for implicit racial bias in discretionary decisions made by community supervision agents in conditions with increasing information ambiguity.HYPOTHESES:We reasoned that as in-person contact decreases, community supervision officers' specific knowledge of clients would be replaced by heuristics that lead to racially disproportionate outcomes in higher discretion events. Officers' implicit biases would lead to disproportionately higher technical violation rates among Black community corrections' clients when they have less personal contact, but we expected no analogous increase in nondiscretionary decisions.METHOD:Using data from Black and White clients entering probation and postrelease supervision in North Carolina from 2012 through 2016, we estimated the difference in racial disparities in discretionary versus nondiscretionary decisions across five levels of supervision. We evaluated the robustness of our main fixed-effects model using an alternative regression discontinuity design.RESULTS:Racial disparities in discretionary decisions grew as supervision intensity decreased, and the bias was larger for women than men. There was no similar pattern of increased disparity for nondiscretionary decisions.CONCLUSIONS:Criminal justice system actors have a great deal of discretion, particularly in how they deal with less serious criminal behavior. Although decentralized decisions are foundational to the function of the criminal justice system, they provide an opportunity for implicit bias to seep in. Shortcuts and mental heuristics are more influential when the decision-maker's mental resources are already strained-for instance, if someone is tired, distracted, or overworked. Therefore, limiting discretion and increasing oversight and accountability may reduce the impact of implicit bias on criminal justice system outcomes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

This chapter provides a brief review of criminal justice drug policy in the United States and describes the evidence base on the impact of incarceration. Three promising interventions on drug use and crime among persons in the criminal justice system are reviewed. Punitive carceral policies alone are found to have little effect on drug crime recidivism or drug use beyond the temporary effects of incapacitation. Therapeutic communities, medication-assisted treatment, and cognitive behavioral therapies in institutional and community corrections settings are associated with meaningful reductions in recidivism or drug use. Drug courts are a promising means to reduce drug consumption and future criminal justice involvement. Programs that enforce sobriety through the threat of moderate sanctions reduce drug consumption and may reduce misconduct. Evidence from drug legalization is too early and diverse to interpret. Across all evidence-based interventions considered, effectiveness appears to be driven by implementation choices and program fidelity. In many cases, the core determinants of success are often not yet well understood.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS:The US state of South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program (24/7) requires individuals charged or convicted of alcohol-involved offenses to avoid alcohol and submit to twice-daily or continuous alcohol testing. We evaluated the impact of the 24/7 program in the US state of Montana.METHODS:Using data from everyone in Montana who was convicted of their second driving under the influence (DUI) offense from 2009 to August 2013, we described program violations among 24/7 participants and then estimated the effect of 24/7 participation on the probability of DUI re-arrest. To address potential selection issues related to individual-level 24/7 participation, we used an instrumental variables approach that exploits county-level variation in program adoption.RESULTS:Among 2768 people convicted of a second DUI in our analytical sample, 356 participated in 24/7 and were monitored for an average of 173 days (median = 112 days). Among the 332 participants monitored by breath test, 95.5% of scheduled alcohol breath tests were completed and did not lead to a program violation. After controlling for individual- and community-level covariates as well as year and county fixed effects, our instrumental variable models suggested that participation in 24/7 reduced the 1-year DUI re-arrest probability by at least 80% (preferred model: 86% decrease; 8.9 percentage points) compared with a counterfactual group of people convicted of a second DUI over the same period but not assigned to the program.CONCLUSIONS:South Dakota USA's 24/7 Sobriety Program appears to work in Montana as well. Certain delivery of immediate but modest sanctions for repeat driving under the influence (DUI) arrestees who violate alcohol abstinence orders appears to be able to reduce future DUI arrests.

All three commentaries affirm the importance of improving the quality of information informing drug policy decisions, and the opportunities for doing so by synthesizing ('triangulating') multiple data sets. McKetin's story of discordant trends in Australian methamphetamine series is a great example of the type of paradox that motivated us to write the original paper [1, 2]. Hospitalization, treatment admissions, seizures and arrests all rose even as prevalence estimates from Australia's National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NHS) fell. Efforts to harmonize all of that dissonant evidence led to the plausible but potentially spurious assumption that a smaller number of people were consuming a more dangerous form of the drug. There was minimal consideration of the possibility that the consumer base grew or changed in ways that the NHS missed. Triangulation needs to be brutally unsentimental about the limitations of the various indicators, in this case a general population survey's (GPS's) weakness at describing stigmatized, low-prevalence activities such as methamphetamine use. Radhakrishnan's [3] concerns that describing specific flaws in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) may erode faith in the survey as a whole, and that skepticism towards GPS should be communicated appropriately, needs qualification. We do not want to be the reason that babies are thrown out with the bathwater. Nevertheless, there are downsides to encouraging people to mistake bathwater for clear, distilled drinking water, so we repeat our agreement that NSDUH is essential for public health policy. For example, GPS contribute to understanding of cannabis use, a highly prevalent and increasingly socially accepted behavior, but we also repeat our statement that NSDUH (alone) is not appropriate to estimate the prevalence of frequent heroin use or characterize people who use heroin, and that is primarily because of under-reporting and selective non-response. The respondents who report use probably differ from non-responding users. We are delighted that the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA)'s Center for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality is investigating how to complement NSDUH with data on emergency department mentions, treatment services and surveillance of populations excluded from NSDUH's sampling frame. We look forward to when SAMHSA releases reports organized around a topic or question, integrating data from all sources, rather than organizing reports around specific data collections, with each report drawing upon only one type of data. Van Hasselt [4] identified opportunities and challenges in such triangulation. In particular, he notes that while new data sources and improving methods offer opportunities to improve descriptions of levels and trends, much work remains to produce reliable estimates from a set of varied indicators. He wisely cautions that triangulation is hard; there is no silver bullet algorithm for synthesizing data from different sources. We might characterize van Hasselt's commentary as encouraging a formal, rigorous and statistical approach to triangulation. It is hard to argue against rigor. However, we note that drug use is just one-half of a complex market phenomenon that also involves supply. Hence (as McKetin also observes), entirely different indicators pertaining to production, purity, price, arrests and seizures, as well as intelligence data, e.g. on smuggling routes and methods, can also shed light on consumption. That makes drug use fundamentally different than most health conditions. There is no supply chain for depression or asthma, so there may be a tension between rigorously combining various data that all come from the demand side and less rigorously stirring in additional information on supply-side activities. Time may tell whether stressing rigor or the inclusion of diverse data ultimately offers a more comprehensive basis for policymaking. For now, we would encourage investment in both. None.

Research SummaryWe investigated whether higher rates of random drug testing lower substance use among people who are incarcerated and improve prison safety. To answer this question, we estimated linear panel two‐way fixed effects models using naturally varying monthly rates of random drug testing across all Pennsylvania state prisons over a 45‐month period during 2016–2019. Overall, we find that the testing rate is not related to any of the variables we consider, including our key measure of interest, positive drug tests.Policy ImplicationsOur analyses of historical monthly data find that higher levels of randomized testing did not yield more positive drug tests among incarcerated persons. Further and importantly, we did not find that lower testing rates was associated with negative consequences on other outcomes, suggesting that marginal increases in testing rates do not generate commensurate benefits. In this sense, our findings provide preliminary evidence that “a little testing goes a long way.” Replication and expansion of our study is required for stronger conclusions.

Research SummaryCriminal justice practitioners increasingly seek out efficient means of community supervision supplanting face‐to‐face interactions with practices that are less onerous to administrators and clients. We examined the differential impact of remote supervision for low‐risk probationers by race. Remote reporting greatly reduces or eliminates in‐person meetings where race would be salient; however, it also creates conditions where an officer may rely more heavily on heuristics. We found the program drastically reduced violations, but also exacerbated the racial discrepancy in reporting high discretion violations.Policy ImplicationThe study illustrates how integrating an empirical test of racial discrepancies into program evaluation can illuminate conditions that amplify implicit bias. Our findings illustrate how a program with unequivocally positive outcomes for low‐risk probationers overall can further amplify racial disparities, particularly when the probation officer has more discretion. By creating a statistically equivalent group of clients who receive probation‐as‐usual, our evaluation strategy measures this bias by comparing consequences for which an agent has high discretion against those for which they have low or no discretion for program participants. This approach is replicable across many criminal justice practices.