The incidence and spread of dengue virus (DENV) have increased rapidly in recent decades.Dengue is underreported in Africa, but recent outbreaks and seroprevalence data suggest that DENV is widespread there.A lack of ongoing surveillance limits knowledge about its spatial reach and hinders disease control planning.We sought to add data on dengue distribution in Kenya through diagnostic testing of serum specimens from persons with an acute febrile illness (AFI) attending an outpatient clinic in rural western Kenya (Asembo) during rainy seasons.Patients with symptoms not likely to be misclassified as dengue (e.g., diarrhea and anemia), those with a positive diagnostic laboratory results which explained their febrile illness, or those with serum collected more than 5 days after fever onset were excluded.However, febrile patients with a positive malaria smear were included in the study.We used reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to test for DENV and IgM anti-DENV to test for recent infection.Of the 615 serum specimens available for testing, none were dengue positive by either RT-PCR or IgM anti-DENV testing.Dengue did not appear to be a cause of febrile illness in this area of western Kenya, although our relatively small sample size may not have identified DENV infections occurring at low incidence.A more widespread AFI surveillance system that includes dengue diagnostic testing by RT-PCR and antibody-based methods is required to more definitively gauge the size and geographic distribution of DENV infection in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND:Public health responses to outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus have been stymied by the inability to control the primary vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitos. Consequently, the need for novel approaches to Aedes vector control is urgent. Placement of three autocidal gravid ovitraps (AGO traps) in ~85% of homes in a community was previously shown to sustainably reduce the density of female Ae. aegypti by >80%. Following the introduction of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) to Puerto Rico, we conducted a seroprevalence survey to estimate the prevalence of CHIKV infection in communities with and without AGO traps and evaluate their effect on reducing CHIKV transmission.METHODS AND FINDINGS:Multivariate models that calculated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) showed that among 175 and 152 residents of communities with and without AGO traps, respectively, an estimated 26.1% and 43.8% had been infected with CHIKV (aPR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.37-0.91). After stratification by time spent in their community, protection from CHIKV infection was strongest among residents who reported spending many or all weekly daytime hours in their community:10.3% seropositive in communities with AGO traps vs. 48.7% in communities without (PR = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.11-0.41). The age-adjusted rate of fever with arthralgia attributable to CHIKV infection was 58% (95% CI: 46-66%). The monthly number of CHIKV-infected mosquitos and symptomatic residents were diminished in communities with AGO traps compared to those without.CONCLUSIONS:These findings indicate that AGO traps are an effective tool that protects humans from infection with a virus transmitted by Ae. aegypti mosquitos. Future studies should evaluate their protective effectiveness in large, urban communities.

Dengue was first reported in Puerto Rico in 1899 and sporadically thereafter. Following outbreaks in 1963 and 1969, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has worked closely with the Puerto Rico Department of Health to monitor and reduce the public health burden of dengue. During that time, evolving epidemiologic scenarios have provided opportunities to establish, improve, and expand disease surveillance and interventional research projects. These initiatives have enriched the tools available to the global public health community to understand and combat dengue, including diagnostic tests, methods for disease and vector surveillance, and vector control techniques. Our review serves as a guide to organizations seeking to establish dengue surveillance and research programs by highlighting accomplishments, challenges, and lessons learned during more than a century of dengue surveillance and research conducted in Puerto Rico.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral illness that causes a variety of health outcomes, from a mild acute febrile illness to potentially fatal severe dengue. Between 2005 and 2010, the annual number of suspected dengue cases reported to the Passive Dengue Surveillance System (PDSS) in Puerto Rico ranged from 2,346 in 2006 to 22,496 in 2010. Like other passive surveillance systems, PDSS is subject to under-reporting. To estimate the degree of under-reporting in Puerto Rico, we built separate inpatient and outpatient probability-based multiplier models, using data from two different surveillance systems-PDSS and the enhanced dengue surveillance system (EDSS). We adjusted reported cases to account for sensitivity of diagnostic tests, specimens with indeterminate results, and differences between PDSS and EDSS in numbers of reported dengue cases. In addition, for outpatients, we adjusted for the fact that less than 100% of medical providers submit diagnostic specimens from suspected cases. We estimated that a multiplication factor of between 5 (for 2010 data) to 9 (for 2006 data) must be used to correct for the under-reporting of the number of laboratory-positive dengue inpatients. Multiplication factors of between 21 (for 2010 data) to 115 (for 2008 data) must be used to correct for the under-reporting of laboratory-positive dengue outpatients. We also estimated that, after correcting for underreporting, the mean annual rate, for 2005-2010, of medically attended dengue in Puerto Rico to be between 2.1 (for dengue inpatients) to 7.8 (for dengue outpatients) per 1,000 population. These estimated rates compare to the reported rates of 0.4 (dengue outpatients) to 0.1 (dengue inpatients) per 1,000 population. The multipliers, while subject to limitations, will help public health officials correct for underreporting of dengue cases, and thus better evaluate the cost-and-benefits of possible interventions.

Dengue is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Laboratory diagnosis is often expensive or unavailable in some endemic areas, making clinical diagnosis important for case management. In order to develop and validate the Mahidol dengue clinical score (MDCS), a predictive of dengue among children who present with acute febrile illness without localizing signs in a dengue endemic area, data on clinical and laboratory findings in a cohort study of children with acute febrile illness without localizing signs identified prospectively were analyzed and compared between those with and without laboratory-confirmed dengue. MDCS was then developed using independent clinical risk factors associated with dengue. The validity of MDCS was further evaluated by comparison to WHO dengue diagnostic criteria. In children who had acute febrile illness without localizing signs, MDCS-A version comprising of mucosal bleeding, facial flush, absence of rhinorrhea, positive tourniquet test, leucopenia, and thrombocytopenia had a diagnostic value comparable to WHO 1997 criteria, while MDCS-B version that excludes data on leukopenia and thrombocytopenia, making it more feasible in laboratory-limited settings, had a diagnostic value comparable to WHO 2009 criteria. Thus, MDCS can be used as a screening diagnostic tool for dengue infection in children in a dengue endemic area.

Identifying etiologies of acute febrile illnesses (AFI) is challenging due to non-specific presentation and limited availability of diagnostics. Prospective AFI studies provide a methodology to describe the syndrome by age and etiology, findings that can be used to develop case definitions and multiplexed diagnostics to optimize management. We conducted a 3-year prospective AFI study in Puerto Rico. Patients with fever ≤7 days were offered enrollment, and clinical data and specimens were collected at enrollment and upon discharge or follow-up. Blood and oro-nasopharyngeal specimens were tested by RT-PCR and immunodiagnostic methods for infection with dengue viruses (DENV) 1-4, chikungunya virus (CHIKV), influenza A and B viruses (FLU A/B), 12 other respiratory viruses (ORV), enterovirus, Leptospira spp., and Burkholderia pseudomallei. Clinical presentation and laboratory findings of participants infected with DENV were compared to those infected with CHIKV, FLU A/B, and ORV. Clinical predictors of laboratory-positive dengue compared to all other AFI etiologies were determined by age and day post-illness onset (DPO) at presentation. Of 8,996 participants enrolled from May 7, 2012 through May 6, 2015, more than half (54.8%, 4,930) had a pathogen detected. Pathogens most frequently detected were CHIKV (1,635, 18.2%), FLU A/B (1,074, 11.9%), DENV 1-4 (970, 10.8%), and ORV (904, 10.3%). Participants with DENV infection presented later and a higher proportion were hospitalized than those with other diagnoses (46.7% versus 27.3% with ORV, 18.8% with FLU A/B, and 11.2% with CHIKV). Predictors of dengue in participants presenting <3 DPO included leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, headache, eye pain, nausea, and dizziness, while negative predictors were irritability and rhinorrhea. Predictors of dengue in participants presenting 3-5 DPO were leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, facial/neck erythema, nausea, eye pain, signs of poor circulation, and diarrhea; presence of rhinorrhea, cough, and red conjunctiva predicted non-dengue AFI. By enrolling febrile patients at clinical presentation, we identified unbiased predictors of laboratory-positive dengue as compared to other common causes of AFI. These findings can be used to assist in early identification of dengue patients, as well as direct anticipatory guidance and timely initiation of correct clinical management.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW:By all measures, the morbidity and mortality due to dengue are continuing to worsen worldwide. Although both early and recent studies have demonstrated regional differences in how dengue affects local populations, these findings were to varying extents related to disparate surveillance approaches.RECENT FINDINGS:Recent studies have broadened the recognized spectrum of disease resulting from DENV infection, particularly in adults, and have also demonstrated new mechanisms of DENV spread both within and between populations. New results regarding the frequency and duration of homo- and heterotypic anti-DENV antibodies have provided important insights relevant to vaccine design and implementation.SUMMARY:These observations and findings as well as difficulties in comparing the epidemiology of dengue within and between regions of the world underscore the need for population-based dengue surveillance worldwide. Enhanced surveillance should be implemented to complement passive surveillance in countries in the tropics to establish baseline data in order to define affected populations and evaluate the impact of dengue vaccines and novel vector control interventions.

Background. Prior to 2010, the clinical management of dengue in Puerto Rico was inconsistent with World Health Organization guidelines. A 4-hour classroom-style course on dengue clinical management was developed in 2009 and mandated for Puerto Rico medical licensure in 2010. Fifty physicians were trained as "master trainers" and gave this course to 7638 physicians. This study evaluated the effect of the course on the clinical management of hospitalized dengue patients.Methods. Pre- and post-course test responses were compared. Changes in physician practices were assessed by reviewing medical records of 430 adult and 1075 pediatric dengue patients at the 12 hospitals in Puerto Rico that reported the most cases during 2008-2009 (pre-intervention) and 2011 (post-intervention). Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to compare key indicators of dengue management.Results. Physician test scores increased from 48% to 72% correct. Chart reviews showed that the percentage of adult patients who did not receive corticosteroids increased from 30% to 68% (odds ratio [OR], 5.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.7-9.5) and from 91% to 96% in pediatric patients (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.5-4.9). Usage of isotonic intravenous saline during the critical period increased from 57% to 90% in adult patients (OR, 6.2; 95% CI, 1.9-20.4) and from 25% to 44% in pediatric patients (OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 2.2-5.3).Conclusions. Management of dengue inpatients significantly improved following implementation of a classroom-style course taught by master trainers. An online version of the course was launched in 2014 to expand its reach and sustainability.

BACKGROUND Anti-dengue virus (DENV) immunoglobulin M (IgM) seroconversion has been the reference standard for dengue diagnosis. However, paired specimens are rarely obtained, and the interval for this testing negates its usefulness in guiding clinical case management. The presence of DENV viremia and appearance of IgM during the febrile phase of dengue provides the framework for dengue laboratory diagnosis by using a single serum specimen. METHODS Archived paired serum specimens (n = 1234) from patients with laboratory-confirmed dengue from 2005 through 2011 were used to determine the diagnostic performance of real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), for detection of DENV serotypes 1-4, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs), for detection of DENV nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) antigen and anti-DENV IgM. RESULTS During 1-3 days after illness onset, real-time RT-PCR and NS1 antigen testing detected 82%-69% and 90%-84% of cases, respectively, as viremia levels declined, while anti-DENV IgM ELISA detected 5%-41% of cases as antibody appeared. Over the 10-day period of the febrile phase of dengue, the cumulative effect of using these 3 types of tests in a diagnostic algorithm confirmed ≥90% of dengue cases. CONCLUSIONS The use of molecular or NS1 antigen tests to detect DENV and one to detect anti-DENV IgM in a single serum specimen collected during the first 10 days of illness accurately identified ≥90% of dengue primary and secondary cases.

Dengue is major public health problem, globally. Timely verification of suspected dengue outbreaks allows for public health response, leading to the initiation of appropriate clinical care. Because the clinical presentation of dengue is nonspecific, dengue diagnosis would benefit from a sensitive rapid diagnostic test (RDT). We evaluated the diagnostic performance of an RDT that detects dengue virus (DENV) nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) and anti-DENV IgM during suspected acute febrile illness (AFI) outbreaks in four countries. Real-time reverse transcription-PCR and anti-DENV IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay were used to verify RDT results. Anti-DENV IgM RDT sensitivity and specificity ranged from 55.3 to 91.7% and 85.3 to 98.5%, respectively, and NS1 sensitivity and specificity ranged from 49.7 to 92.9% and 22.2 to 89.0%, respectively. Sensitivity varied by timing of specimen collection and DENV serotype. Combined test results moderately improved the sensitivity. The use of RDTs identified dengue as the cause of AFI outbreaks where reference diagnostic testing was limited or unavailable.

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral illness caused by dengue virus types (DENV)-1 to DENV-4, is endemic in Puerto Rico. Severe dengue usually occurs in individuals previously infected with DENV or among infants born to previously infected mothers. To describe clinical features of dengue in infants, we retrospectively characterized dengue patients aged < 18 months reported to the Passive Dengue Surveillance System (PDSS) during 1999-2011. To determine frequency of signs, symptoms, and disease severity, case report forms and medical records were evaluated for patients who tested positive for dengue by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction or anti-DENV immunoglobulin Menzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Of 4,178 reported patients aged < 18 months, 813 (19%) were laboratory positive. Of these, most had fever (92%), rash (53%), bleeding manifestations (52%), and thrombocytopenia (52%). Medical records were available for 145 (31%) of 472 hospitalized patients, of which 40% had dengue, 23% had dengue with warning signs, and 33% had severe dengue. Mean age of patients with severe dengue was 8 months. Anti-DENV immunoglobulin G (IgG) titers were not statistically different in patients with (50%) and without (59%) severe dengue. In this study, one-third of DENV-infected infants met the severe dengue case definition. The role of maternal anti-DENV IgG in development of severe disease warrants further study in prospective cohorts of mother-infant pairs.

BACKGROUNDInternational travel can expose travellers to pathogens not commonly found in their countries of residence, like dengue virus. Travellers and the clinicians who advise and treat them have unique needs for understanding the geographic extent of risk for dengue. Specifically, they should assess the need for prevention measures before travel and ensure appropriate treatment of illness post-travel. Previous dengue-risk maps published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Yellow Book lacked specificity, as there was a binary (risk, no risk) classification. We developed a process to compile evidence, evaluate it and apply more informative risk classifications.METHODSWe collected more than 839 observations from official reports, ProMED reports and published scientific research for the period 2005-2014. We classified each location as frequent/continuous risk if there was evidence of more than 10 dengue cases in at least three of the previous 10 years. For locations that did not fit this criterion, we classified locations as sporadic/uncertain risk if the location had evidence of at least one locally acquired dengue case during the last 10 years. We used expert opinion in limited instances to augment available data in areas where data were sparse.RESULTSInitial categorizations classified 134 areas as frequent/continuous and 140 areas as sporadic/uncertain. CDC subject matter experts reviewed all initial frequent/continuous and sporadic/uncertain categorizations and the previously uncategorized areas. From this review, most categorizations stayed the same; however, 11 categorizations changed from the initial determinations.CONCLUSIONSThese new risk classifications enable detailed consideration of dengue risk, with clearer meaning and a direct link to the evidence that supports the specific classification. Since many infectious diseases have dynamic risk, strong geographical heterogeneities and varying data quality and availability, using this approach for other diseases can improve the accuracy, clarity and transparency of risk communication.

Background Dengue is a leading cause of morbidity throughout the tropics; however, accurate population- based estimates of mortality rates are not available. Methods/Principal Findings We established the Enhanced Fatal Acute Febrile Illness Surveillance System (EFASS) to estimate dengue mortality rates in Puerto Rico. Healthcare professionals submitted serum and tissue specimens from patients who died from a dengue-like acute febrile illness, and death certificates were reviewed to identify additional cases. Specimens were tested for markers of dengue virus (DENV) infection by molecular, immunologic, and immunohistochemical methods, and were also tested for West Nile virus, Leptospira spp., and other pathogens based on histopathologic findings. Medical records were reviewed and clinical data abstracted. A total of 311 deaths were identified, of which 58 (19%) were DENV laboratory-positive. Dengue mortality rates were 1.05 per 100,000 population in 2010, 0.16 in 2011 and 0.36 in 2012. Dengue mortality was highest among adults 19-64 years and seniors >= 65 years (1.17 and 1.66 deaths per 100,000, respectively). Other pathogens identified included 34 Leptospira spp. cases and one case of Burkholderia pseudomallei and Neisseria meningitidis. Conclusions/Significance EFASS showed that dengue mortality rates among adults were higher than reported for influenza, and identified a leptospirosis outbreak and index cases of melioidosis and meningitis.

After chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission was detected in Puerto Rico in May 2014, multiple surveillance systems were used to describe epidemiologic trends and CHIKV-associated disease. Of 28 327 cases reported via passive surveillance, 6472 were tested for evidence of CHIKV infection, and results for 4399 (68%) were positive. Of 250 participants in household cluster investigations, 70 (28%) had evidence of recent CHIKV infection. Enhanced surveillance for chikungunya at 2 hospitals identified 1566 patients who tested positive for CHIKV, of whom 10.9% were hospitalized. Enhanced surveillance for fatal cases enabled identification of 31 cases in which CHIKV was detected in blood or tissue specimens. All surveillance systems detected a peak incidence of chikungunya in September 2014 and continued circulation in 2015. Concomitant surveillance for dengue demonstrated low incidence, which had decreased before CHIKV was introduced. Multifaceted chikungunya surveillance in Puerto Rico resolved gaps in traditional passive surveillance and enabled a holistic description of the spectrum of disease associated with CHIKV infection.

Autochthonous dengue virus transmission has occurred in the continental United States with increased frequency during the last decade; the principal vector, Aedes aegypti, has expanded its geographic distribution in the southern United States. Dengue, a potentially fatal arboviral disease, is underreported, and US clinicians encountering patients with acute febrile illness consistent with dengue are likely to not be fully familiar with dengue diagnosis and management. Recently, investigators suggested that an outbreak of dengue likely occurred in Houston during 2003 based on retrospective laboratory testing of hospitalized cases with encephalitis and aseptic meningitis. Although certain aspects of the Houston testing results and argument for local transmission are doubtful, the report highlights the importance of prospective surveillance for dengue in Aedes-infested areas of the United States, the need for clinical training on dengue and its severe manifestations, and the need for laboratory testing in domestic patients presenting with febrile neurologic illness in these regions to include dengue.