The evaluation of genomic selection (GS) efficiency in forestry has primarily relied on cross-validation schemes that split the same population within a single generation for both training and validation. While useful, this approach may not be reliable for multigenerational breeding. To our knowledge, this is the first study to assess genomic prediction in Norway spruce using a large dataset spanning two generations in two environments. We trained pedigree-based (ABLUP) and marker-based (GBLUP) prediction models under three approaches: forward prediction, backward prediction, and across-environment prediction. The models were evaluated for ring-width, solid-wood and tracheid characteristics, using 6,000 phenotyped and 2,500 genotyped individual. Predictive ability (PA) and prediction accuracy (ACC) were estimated using an independent validation method, ensuring no individuals were shared between training and validation datasets. To assess the trade-off between comprehensive radial history and practical direct methods, we compared GBLUP models trained with cumulative area-weighted density (AWE-GBLUP) and single annual-ring density (SAD-GBLUP) from mother plus-trees. These models were validated using early and mature-stage progeny density measurements across two trials. Despite the smaller number of individuals used in the GBLUP models, both PA and ACC were generally comparable to those of the ABLUP model, particularly for cross-environment predictions. Overall, forward and backward predictions were significantly higher for density-related and tracheid properties, suggesting that across-generation predictions are feasible for wood properties but may be challenging for growth and low-heritability traits. Notably, SAD-GBLUP provided comparable prediction accuracies to AWE-GBLUP, supporting the use of more practical and cost-effective phenotyping methods in operational breeding programs. Our findings highlight the need for context-specific models to improve the accuracy and reliability of genomic prediction in forest tree breeding. Future efforts might aim to expand training populations, incorporate non-additive genetic effects, and validate model performance across cambial ages while accounting for climatic variability during the corresponding growth years. Overall, this study offers a valuable foundation for implementing GS in Norway spruce breeding programs.

Drought has been identified as one of the important environmental factors in the context of climate change due to its interaction with other biotic and abiotic stresses. However, only a few studies have reported the effect of breeding on forest adaptability to climate change. Using a common garden experiment with seedlings from families of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) from northern Sweden, we have found differences in drought tolerance between seedlings from breeding stands and those from natural forests. We performed a genetic analysis including high-throughput image-based phenotyping of seedling canopy and root traits and conducted metabolomic and hormone analyses with the aerial parts of the seedlings. Our results indicate that root architecture traits associated with drought tolerance exhibit moderate to high heritability. Analyses of seedling architecture reveal that families from breeding stands have higher drought resistance but lower genetic variation than the ones from natural forests, especially in the case of canopy traits. Metabolomic and hormone analyses of the aerial parts of the seedlings also support that the breeding stands may have a higher capacity to withstand or deal with drought conditions as compared to the natural forests. For example, increase in abscisic acid along with increase in tryptophan and auxin conjugates in the breeding stands compared to the natural forests under drought conditions may contribute to alleviation of drought response in the breeding stands. The methodology employed to evaluate drought tolerance and plant architecture in this study might be useful for future research and forest management focused on climate change adaptability.

BACKGROUND:Forest geneticists typically use provenances to account for population differences in their improvement schemes; however, the historical records of the imported materials might not be very precise or well-aligned with the genetic clusters derived from advanced molecular techniques. The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of marker-based population structure on genetic parameter estimates related to growth and wood properties and their trade-offs in Norway spruce, by either incorporating it as a fixed effect (model-A) or excluding it entirely from the analysis (model-B). RESULTS:Our results indicate that models incorporating population structure significantly reduce estimates of additive genetic variance, resulting in substantial reduction of narrow-sense heritability. However, these models considerably improve prediction accuracies. This was particularly significant for growth and solid-wood properties, which showed to have the highest population genetic differentiation (QST) among the studied traits. Additionally, although the pattern of correlations remained similar across the models, their magnitude was slightly lower for models that included population structure as a fixed effect. This suggests that selection, consistently performed within populations, might be less affected by unfavourable genetic correlations compared to mass selection conducted without pedigree restrictions. CONCLUSION:We conclude that the results of models properly accounting for population structure are more accurate and less biased compared to those neglecting this effect. This might have practical implications for breeders and forest managers where, decisions based on imprecise selections can pose a high risk to economic efficiency.

Purpose of Review In this review, we synthesise current knowledge on trade-offs among traits in key fitness dimensions and identify major research gaps with the intention of laying the groundwork for a rapid advance in tree breeding for multiple objectives as a key contribution to the sustainability of planted forests in the future. Recent Findings Trade-offs among growth, reproduction, defence, stress tolerance and product quality predicted theoretically have been reported experimentally in many breeding programmes. Among these trade-offs, the genetic linkage between resistance against biotic threats and growth (or other relevant traits) is particularly critical for the current and future management of forest genetic resources. Maintaining tree growth and wood quality in the novel environments of the future requires the assessment of genetic correlations of target traits with phenology, closely linked to survival to temperature extremes. Improving our current knowledge on the genetic trade-offs of drought tolerance as a breeding objective in forest trees obligates a more precise definition of both the specific traits and the experimental conditions. Published evidence suggests that common target traits in breeding programmes may trade-off with reproductive success and fire-adaptation, and the simultaneous improvement of growth and wood quality traits still remains as a constraint in traditional tree breeding. Summary Changing environments combined with pests and diseases are challenging plantation forestry worldwide, which implies an urgent need to develop new improvement strategies to build the resilience of forestry for our future environments. It is essential to have a better understanding of how traits interact, especially those important for production, climate and biotic threat resilience, but much of the information is still missing. Since many key trade-offs are affected by the environment, we need new studies under novel environments to forecast levels of multi-trait integration in breeding populations.

Climate change possess a threat to forests and forestry. Drought has been identified as a one of the main issues due to its interaction with other biotic and abiotic stresses. Few studies have been done regarding breeding effect on the adaptability to climate change. After a common garden experiment with seedling families of Scots pine from northern Sweden, we have found differences in drought tolerance between families of breeding and natural origin. We performed a high throughput analysis-based phenotyping on both canopy and root traits. Root architecture traits might be related to drought tolerance and show moderate to high heritability values. The heritability of root architecture traits can be useful not only for drought but also for adaptability to other abiotic stresses. Analysis on architecture traits show that, especially on canopy-traits, families from breeding origins show less phenotypic variance than the ones from natural origins. The methodology employed to evaluate drought tolerance and plant architecture might be useful for future research and forest management focused on climate change adaptability.

The summer drought of 2018 was one of the most climatically severe events in Europe that led to record-breaking temperatures and wildfires in many parts of Europe. The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of the 2018 drought on the phenotypic and genetic response of Norway spruce height growth using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). To achieve this, the total cumulative height growth of about 6000 clones from 2016 to 2019 in four full-sib trials in Sweden, aged 6–7 years, and from 2017 to 2019 in two half-sib trials in Finland, aged 8–9 years, were measured. The results indicate that the 2018 drought caused reductions in the increment of trees. Although heritability estimates were similar to other reports for Norway spruce, the additive genetic variance was highly inflated in one of the visibly drought-damaged trials in Southern Sweden. Similarly, the genotype by environment (G × E) interaction was highly significant in the drought-damaged Southern Swedish trials. Both additive genetic and phenotypic correlations obtained between height increments in 2019 and final heights were the weakest in all studied trials, implying that the drought legacies might have influenced the recovery of trees in 2019. We may conclude that the severe drought can be an underlying factor for a strong G × E interaction and changes in the ranking of genotypes. Therefore, a selection of drought-resistant genotypes with a good growth capacity tested in variables sites should be considered as an important criterion for future breeding of Norway spruce.

We used a regression model approach to examine transferability of the 1.5-generation Swedish Scots pine orchard plus trees using the estimated coefficients of the transfer models recently developed for growth and survival of unimproved Scots pine in Sweden and Finland. Differences between observed and predicted values obtained for height and survival of 3214 plus tree progenies, tested at 58 progeny trials, were regressed on latitudinal transfers (∆LAT). In order to evaluate rates of improvement in height and survival of selected progenies over unimproved trees, average percentage differences in performances (∆g%) between the tree groups were calculated. Results indicate that the adopted models can further predict performances of more advanced-generation orchard trees, as there was no evidence of any systematic pattern in the slope of regression functions. Overall, ∆g% estimates obtained for height of progenies were greater than those of survival, suggesting Swedish Scots pine breeding activities are generating gain in the height growth. Moreover, ∆g% estimates obtained for height and survival of half-sib progenies were higher than those of full-sib ones, as a result of response to higher selection intensity applied in the reselection of their parents. This indicates that, in addition to the gain in growth, a gain in survival is also achievable from 1.5-generation seed orchards, depending on the intensity of selection and intended deployment site.

Quantitative genetic variation of fiber-dimension traits and their relationship with diameter at breast height (DBH) and solid-wood traits (i.e., density and modulus of elasticity (MOE)) was investigated in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.). A total of 823 increment cores were sampled from 207 half-sib families at two independent progeny trials, aged 34–35 years, located in northern Sweden. High-resolution pith-to-bark profiles were obtained for radial fiber width (RFW), tangential fiber width (TFW), fiber wall thickness (FWT), and fiber coarseness (FC) using SilviScan. Heritabilities ranged from 0.29 to 0.74, and inheritance increased with cambial maturity. Estimated age–age genetic correlations indicate that early selection between ages 5 and 8 years is highly efficient. Our results indicate that selection for a 1% increase in DBH or MOE incurs a negligible effect on fiber-dimension traits and maximum genetic gains are reached when DBH and MOE are considered jointly. Moreover, simultaneous improvement of growth and stiffness is achievable when a selection index with 7 to 10 economical weights for MOE relative to 1 for DBH is incorporated. However, the unfavorable relationship between solid-wood traits and pulp and paper related traits suggests that breeding strategies must be implemented to improve wood quality of lodgepole pine for multiple uses.

Genetic parameters, performance of provenances, and genotype by environment interaction (GxE) for diameter at breast height (DBH), survival, and modulus of elasticity of time-of-flight (MOEtof) (an indirect measure of stiffness), were investigated in six lodgepole pine progeny trials, aged 33-36 years, within three breeding zones in northern Sweden. Provenances of Yukon origin had the highest growth but lowest stiffness at higher latitude, while those of British Columbia (BC) origin grew faster at lower latitudes and had highest stiffness within zone 5.Combined-site heritability estimates ranged from 0.09 to 0.19 for DBH, from 0.19 to 0.27 for MOEtof, and from 0.13 to 0.26 for survival. Type-B genetic correlations () were generally high for all studied traits, except for DBH and survival in zone 4 (=0.74 and 0.40, respectively) and for MOEtof in zone 2 (=0.46). On the basis of the results obtained in this study, GxE for stiffness in northern Sweden and unfavourable growth-stiffness genetic correlation should be considered in selective breeding programmes of lodgepole pine. To achieve the highest stiffness for lodgepole pine, provenances of Yukon origin should be planted at lower latitudes and those of BC origin should be planted at lower elevations within the tested breeding zones.

Genetic control of microfibril angle (MFA) transition from juvenile wood to mature wood was evaluated in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon). Increment cores were collected at breast height (1.3 m) from 5664 trees in two 21-year-old Norway spruce progeny trials in southern Sweden and from 823 trees in two lodgepole pine progeny trials, aged 34–35 years, in northern Sweden. Radial variations in MFA from pith to bark were measured for each core using SilviScan. To estimate MFA transition from juvenile wood to mature wood, a threshold level of MFA 20° was considered, and six different regression functions were fitted to the MFA profile of each tree after exclusion of outliers, following three steps. The narrow-sense heritability estimates (h2) obtained for MFA transition were highest based on the slope function, ranging from 0.21 to 0.23 for Norway spruce and from 0.34 to 0.53 for lodgepole pine, while h2 were mostly non-significant based on the logistic function, under all exclusion methods. Results of this study indicate that it is possible to select for an earlier MFA transition from juvenile wood to mature wood in Norway spruce and lodgepole pine selective breeding programs, as the genetic gains (ΔG) obtained in direct selection of this trait were very high in both species.

Potential improvement of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) solid-wood properties was examined by estimating age trends of inheritance, age–age genetic correlations, and the efficiency of early selection using 823 increment cores sampled from 207 half-sib families at two independent progeny trials, aged 34–35 years, located in northern Sweden. High-resolution radial variation of annual ring width, wood density, microfibril angle (MFA), and modulus of elasticity (clearwood stiffness; MOES) was measured using SilviScan. The dynamic stiffness (MOEtof) of standing trees was also obtained using Hitman ST300. Heritabilities ranged from 0.10 to 0.64 for growth and earlywood, transition-wood, and latewood proportions, from 0.29 to 0.77 for density traits, and from 0.13 to 0.33 for MFA and stiffness traits. Genetic correlations between early age and the reference age (26 years) suggested that early selection is efficient at age 4 years for MFA and between ages 5 to 8 years for density and MOES. Unfavorable diameter–stiffness genetic correlations and correlated responses indicate that breeding for a 1% increase in diameter would confer 5.5% and 2.3% decreases in lodgepole pine MOES and MOEtof, respectively. Index selection with appropriate economical weights for growth and wood stiffness is highly recommended for selective breeding.