Global climate change has profound impacts on the habitats of marine organisms, and predicting the habitat changes of species under climate change conditions is crucial for species sustainability. Boleophthalmus pectinirostris is an intertidal fish species that holds significant ecological and economic value. To better protect and manage its resources, this study aimed to predict its current potential distribution and habitat changes under different climate scenarios in the future. This study firstly quantified the hypervolume niches of the three lineages (AE1, AE2, and AES lineages) and compared the niche differentiation among them. Furthermore, this study constructed species-level and lineage-level species distribution models (SDMs) to assess the impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of B. pectinirostris. The result of the niche differentiation assessment showed that there was marked differentiation in niches among the three lineages. The responses of different lineages to environmental variables were different, suggesting that lineage-level models may provide more accurate prediction results. According to the model predictions, the AES may have greater resilience to climate change and may experience habitat expansion in the future, while the AE1 and the AE2 may face habitat loss in some regions. Climate change-driven shifts in oceanic conditions were anticipated to affect the distribution and community structure of marine organisms. This study assessed the impact of climate change on the suitable habitat range of three lineages of B. pectinirostris using SDMs. Consistent with previous studies, the results of our study indicated that lineage-level SDMs may be more reliable than species-level SDMs for species with population differentiation in terms of the accuracy of predictions. In addition, considering the vulnerability of the AE1 and AE2 lineages to climate change, conserving these two lineages should be given a higher priority. The results of this study will provide important information for the future management and conservation of this species.

The Northwest Pacific Ocean is the most productive fishing ground in the Pacific Ocean, with a continuous rise in water temperature since 1990. We developed stacked species distribution models (SSDMs) to estimate the impacts of climate change on the distribution dynamics of economically significant species under three climate change scenarios for the periods 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. Overall, water temperature is the most important factor in shaping the distribution patterns of species, followed by water depth. The predictive results indicate that all the species show a northward migration in the future, and the migration distance varies greatly among species. Most pelagic species will expand their habitats under climate change, implying their stronger adaptability than benthic species. Tropical fishes are more adaptable to climate change than species in other climate zones. Though limitations existed, our study provided baseline information for designing a climate-adaptive, dynamic fishery management strategy for maintaining sustainable fisheries.

A false mussel Mytilopsis sallei has caused serious ecological and economic losses after invading in China. In this research, we first assessed the niche differentiation between its native range and invasive range in China and then predicted the habitat suitability along the southern coast of China under present and future climatic circumstances. Distance to shore and water depth were the first two important factors in affecting the distribution of M. sallei, followed by minimum chlorophyll concentration and salinity. The niche of M. sallei shows significant expansion and unfilling. The ensemble of small models can account for few occurrences and presents high predictive performance. A general reduction and northward movement of suitable areas were found in the southern coast of China in the future. This study furnished significant insights regarding the areas under invasive risks, and provided valuable information for preventing the further invasion of M. sallei in China.