What are the likely implications of Donald Trump’s second term in office? Many of the foundational policies from Trump’s first term– such as tax reductions, deregulation, demands that allies increase their military budgets, and increased tariffs on foreign products — are likely to persist, alongside the establishment of a new Department of Government Efficiency to reduce government staffing and expenditures. Trump will confront a divided Congress, a polarized public, potential divisions within his administration, and the emergence of the Global South, with its grievances against the developed North. In addition, the geopolitical landscape is characterized by increased competition and conflict, reflecting the tensions and uncertainties produced by the imbalanced interdependence of global economies and the rise of new international coalitions with different goals and values, raising concerns about Trump’s capacity to effectively navigate these multifaceted challenges.

Since 1949, there have been three major shifts in American policy towards Taiwan: first, placing Taiwan outside the American defence perimeter in the Western Pacific; second, a reversal of the first which was the extension of a formal security commitment to Taiwan; and third, the U.S.'s normalisation of relations with China from 1972 to 1979 and the de-recognition of Taiwan. This chapter explores how each of these changes defined the broad parameters of American policy towards Taiwan, providing essential continuity until the next major shift. Within all three policy frameworks, with the exception of the original temporary exclusion of Taiwan from American security commitments, there were often smaller changes as the United States adjusted its policy to meet changing circumstances. This chapter explores how this pattern of big paradigmatic shifts followed by smaller adjustments and variations has produced the blend of change and continuity in policy evident in the American approach to Taiwan.

This chapter provides a history and interpretation of an important segment of this debate: the five years between the Tenth Party Congress in August 1973 and the Fifth National People's Congress in February 1978. It offers a general overview of the domestic politics of China's global posture between 1973 and early 1978. The chapter deals with each of the four policymaking rounds in turn, attempting to show the complex interrelations among them. It considers the implications of the events of the mid-1970s for a more general understanding of the Chinese foreign policymaking process. The combination of threat and opportunity produced strong pressures in China for a reassessment of Peking's policy toward the Soviet Union. Advocates of the first position proposed that China demonstrate its flexibility toward the Soviet Union by restating Peking's negotiating position in ways that might prove attractive to Moscow, and by initiating limited but symbolic unilateral gestures of good will.

Previous articleNext article No AccessReviewsWinning the Third World: Sino-American Rivalry during the Cold War, by Gregg A. Brazinsky. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2017. xi+425 pp. US$39.95 (cloth).Harry HardingHarry HardingUniversity of Virginia and National Cheng Chi University, Taiwan Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by The China Journal Volume 81January 2019 Published on behalf of the Australian Centre on China in the World at the Australian National University Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/700346 Views: 74Total views on this site For permission to reuse, please contact [email protected]PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

The probability of Taiwan's inclusion in a politically reunified China is lowest of all. Unlike Hong Kong, whose fate was determined by the expiration of the lease of the New Territories in 1997, there is no deadline forcing Taiwan to return to Chinese sovereignty. Given the uncertain prospects for the emergence of Greater China, and for Taiwan's involvement in it, the implications for the United States and the rest of the world need to be drawn with considerable care. Taiwan's involvement in a global Cultural China will have implications for the United States, albeit largely indirect. The best way to explore Taiwan's role in Greater China is to organize the discussion around the three main aspects of the phenomenon: cultural, economic, and political. The chapter shows that Taiwan's involvement in a transnational Chinese economy is significantly more likely than its full incorporation into an integrated Cultural China, which is more likely yet than Taiwan's inclusion in a unified Chinese state.

Previous articleNext article No AccessReviewsThe Dictator’s Dilemma: The Chinese Communist Party’s Strategy for Survival, by Bruce J. Dickson. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016. vii+352 pp. £18.99 (cloth).Harry HardingHarry HardingUniversity of Virginia and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by The China Journal Volume 78July 2017 Published on behalf of the Australian Centre on China in the World at the Australian National University Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/691671 Views: 412Total views on this site For permission to reuse, please contact [email protected]PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

The United States is immersed in its most intense China policy debate in decades, which will almost certainly get more heated and public in 2016. For a variety of reasons, reviewed here, dissatisfaction with China's domestic and international evolution has become widespread as has pessimism about the future of U.S.-China relations, leading to a growing debate over three broad ways to revise U.S. policy.

The history of China's foreign relations is an interesting and controversial topic in its own right, as the essays in this special issue so amply demonstrate. But it is also central to an understanding of China's contemporary international relations. The history of China's foreign relations is not just a chronicle of the past, but also a set of facts and ideas and images that are alive in the minds of policy-makers and the public today, thereby shaping the present and future of China's relationship with the rest of the world.

American strategy in the Far Eastor, as we are increasingly accustomed to calling it, East Asia or the Asia-Pacific regionis an extremely complex topic that is difficult to summarize in a balanced and comprehensive way in a brief lecture.The difficulty of the subject stems first of all from the complexity of the Asia-Pacific region.As commonly defined in the United States, East Asia includes more than thirty countries and regions, of diverse size, location, population, level of development, and political system.Geographically, the region extends from Siberia in the north to New Zealand in the south, and from Tibet in the west to Samoa in the east.In size, the nations of East Asia range from vast continental nations such as the Soviet Union, to large island archipelagos like Japan and Indonesia, to small city states such as Singapore.In population, they include both China, with its billion people, and the island nations of the South Pacific, with populations of only several thousands.The Asia-Pacific region comprises not only the postindustrial economy of Japan and the newly-industrialized economies of South Korea and Taiwan, but also dynamic exporters of primary products, such as Indonesia and Thailand, and some of the poorest nations in the world, including Laos and Burma.Politically, the countries of the region range from industrial democracies (such as Japan) to some of the most despotic totalitarian systems (such as North Korea), as well as quasi-democracies, military authoritarian systems, and even a few colonies (such as Hong Kong, Macao, and New Caledonia).In short, compared with Europeor even with Africa or Latin America -East Asia is a more diverse and expansive region.Accordingly, American policy there must also be differentiated and complex.Secondly, the complexity of the subject of this lecture results from the fact that American policy toward the Asia-Pacific region is increasingly multidimensional.In the past, an assessment of American relations with East Asia could reasonably focus exclusively on matters of diplomacy, politics, and strategy, setting economic questions safely aside.Such an approach would be unthinkable today.Although there are still important political and strategic elements in American relations with the Asia-Pacific nations, economics has

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Foreword, by Winston Lord and Frank G. Wisner Part 1. Historical Overview 1. Introduction, by Francine R. Frankel 2. Perception and China Policy in India, by Steven A. Hoffman 3. One-Sided Rivalry: China's Perceptions and Policies toward India, by Susan Shirk Part 2. Dimensions of the India-China Relationship 4. India and China: Border Issues, Domestic Integration, and International Security, by Sumit Ganguly 5. China and India in Asia, by Ashley J. Tellis 6. The Nuclear and Security Balance, by George Perkovich 7. Economic Reforms and Global Integration, by T. N. Srinivasan 8. Convergent Chinese and Indian Perspectives on the Global Order, by James Clad 9. Quiet Competition and the Future of Sino-Indian Relations, by Mark W. Frazier Part 3. Implications for the United States 10. The Evolution of the Strategic Triangle among China, India, and the United States, by Harry Harding Contributors

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According to Zhu Wenli, Chinese scholars of political economy have been examining many of the same issues as their American counterparts, but have reached quite different conclusions. Chinese scholars accept the importance of globalization, but do not believe that globalization is making the nation-state less relevant or international regimes more powerful. They concede that economic and other transnational issues are becoming increasingly salient in international affairs, but conclude that they are simply altering the ways in which nations compete for power rather than making the international system more cooperative. They agree that much of today's world order is rooted in American hegemony, but do not consider that US foreign policy can be characterized as 'benign'. These conclusions have troubling implications for US‐China relations. They suggest that China will not agree to be integrated into an international community led by the United States, and that the relationship between Beijing and Washington is more likely to be competitive than cooperative.