The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) over the last 200 years has largely been mitigated by the ocean’s function as a carbon sink. However, this continuous absorption of CO2 by seawater triggers ocean acidification (OA), a process in which water becomes more acidic and more depleted in carbonate ions that are essential for calcifiers. OA is well-studied in open ocean environments; however, understanding the unique manifestation of OA in coastal ecosystems presents myriad challenges due to considerable natural variability resulting from concurrent and sometimes opposing coastal processes—e.g. eutrophication, changing hydrological conditions, heterogeneous biological activity, and complex water mass mixing. Developing a mechanistic understanding of carbonate chemistry variability and its drivers across different time scales is a critical first step in identifying the anthropogenic OA signal against background variability and predicting future OA in coastal systems. This study analyzed high temporal resolution pH data collected during 2022 and 2023 from Narragansett Bay, RI—a mid-sized, urban estuary that since 2005 has undergone a 50% reduction in nitrogen loading—with weekly, discrete bottle samples to verify sensor data. Over a year’s worth of data revealed a distinct diurnal cycle of pH, with pH increasing during the day and decreasing during the night, with an average daily range between 0.05 and 0.1 pH units. Further, we observed a strong seasonal cycles with higher mean pH in winter (8.07 ± 0.15) and lower mean pH in summer (7.72 ± 0.07). By separating the drivers of pH variability into effects from temperature, salinity, water mass mixing, biological activity, and air-sea gas flux, we determined that biological production has the most significant influence on pH from daily to annual timescales and in episodic pH changes. To a lesser extent, the seasonal air-sea CO2 exchange and temperature cycle further modified pH on monthly to seasonal timescales. The dominant influence of biological activity in modulating pH has allowed Narragansett Bay’s nutrient reductions, which have been successful in increasing bottom water DO and pH conditions, to modestly reduce summertime surface pH through reduced primary production. This study offers an in-depth understanding of Narragansett Bay’s natural carbonate variability and highlights the sensitivity of an estuary to water management policy. These findings will benefit future OA prediction and will ultimately assist in making environmental management decisions in coastal estuaries with implications for multiple coastal stakeholders.

To assess the consequences of nutrient reduction strategies on water quality under climate change, we investigated the long-term dynamics of dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH in Narragansett Bay (NB), a warming urbanized estuary in Rhode Island, where nitrogen loads have declined due to extensive wastewater treatment plant upgrades. We use 15 years (January 2005-December 2019) of measurements from the Narragansett Bay Fixed Site Monitoring network. Nutrient-enhanced phytoplankton growth can increase DO in the upper water column while subsequent respiration can reduce water column DO and enhance bottom water acidification, and vice-versa. We observed significant decreases in surface DO levels, concurrent with a significant increase in bottom DO, associated with the nitrogen load reduction. Surface DO decline was primarily attributed to reduced intensity of primary productivity, supported by a concurrent decrease in surface chlorophyll concentrations. Meanwhile, the influence of reduced organic matter respiration led to the increase of bottom DO levels by 9 µmol kg-1 (approximately 0.2 mg L-1 for typical summer temperature and salinity) over a 15-year period, which overcame the opposite influence of oxygen reduction from solubility decreases due to warming temperatures. In contrast, long-term changes in surface pH have not exhibited discernible trends beyond natural variability, likely due to the complex and sometimes opposing influences of biological activity and changing river flow conditions. We observed a slight increase in bottom pH, associated with the increase in DO in bottom water. Notably, future variations in freshwater discharge, particularly linked to extreme precipitation events, may further influence water carbonate chemistry and thereby impact pH dynamics. This study highlights the necessity of long-term time series measurements in helping understand the impacts of environmental management practices in improving water quality in coastal regions during a changing climate.

We explore how anomalously strong winter storms, superposed with managed nitrogen reduction, impacted the 2010 and 2018 spring blooms in the Narragansett Bay (41.62° N, 71.35° W). Anomalously strong winter storms preceding spring of 2010 and 2018 increased annual nutrient inputs above the long-term average annual values for the year, causing a large phytoplankton bloom in spring 2010 and a massive winter-spring bloom in 2018. Flooding from the stronger storm in 2010 caused a smaller increase in primary productivity than the smaller storms prior to spring 2018, probably due to increased flushing rates during the 2010 storm. Neither storm enhanced hypoxia the following summer. During both summers, hypoxia was typical of minimal-hypoxia years, indicating that managed nitrogen reduction which is strongest during summer, remained adequate even in the aftermath of organic inputs from large storms during the colder months. Additionally, some commercially fished species appeared to increase after the storm events. Storm nutrient impacts on commercial species suggest that increasing nitrogen inputs from treatment facilities in colder months might enhance Bay fisheries for squid and hard clam without diminishing summer water quality.

Many urban estuaries worldwide suffer from excess phytoplankton and hypoxia (low oxygen) due to high nutrient loads. A common water quality management strategy is to require wastewater treatment facility upgrades. This case study examines Narragansett Bay, a warming temperate mid-latitude urban estuary with seasonal periodic hypoxia, during June through September from 2005 to 2019. Within this period, numerous facilities were upgraded to nitrogen removal over several years. The response of the bay is more consistent with “textbook” expectations for reduced chlorophyll and hypoxia than what was seen in many other systems—despite its complex coastline geometry, numerous river inputs, and widely-distributed treatment facilities. River flow drives inter-annual variability with increased load, density stratification, chlorophyll, and hypoxia in wet years. Mean 2013-2019 bay-wide total nitrogen load was 34% less than the 2005-2012 mean, a reduction of about 10 6 kg yr-1, comparable to the range of flow-driven inter-annual variations. Chlorophyll Index and Hypoxia Index event-based metrics applied to high-frequency time series observations at eight sites quantify exceedances of severe and moderate thresholds. Relatively steady 33% and 16% Chlorophyll Index declines, for severe and moderate thresholds, occurred from about 2007 to 2019. The Hypoxia Index declined markedly by 2009 and 2014 for severe and moderate thresholds, respectively, and remained at or near zero from 2014 to 2019. The load reduction explains chlorophyll and hypoxia declines better than physical processes including river flow, stratification, tidal variations, winds, sea level differences, and temperatures. River flow about 55% higher than the 2005-2019 mean would increase non-treatment facility loads by an amount comparable to the managed load decrease, so future wet summers could partially reverse the improvements. Long-term trends include warming of about 0.5°C decade -1 , which reduces oxygen saturation by 0.1 mg l -1 decade -1 . This rate is likely a lower bound for temperature-driven oxygen decreases, because warming can also accelerate phytoplankton growth and bacterial consumption. Without warming, the managed load decrease would have curtailed hypoxia more effectively. Climate trends should be at least as important to future eutrophication as the managed load decline because, in addition to warming influences, long-term increases in river flow would increase load and stratification.

Oxygen depletion in estuaries and coastal waters is often associated with reduced biodiversity, coastal dead zones, and the loss of important ecosystem services. However, some species can benefit from low oxygen conditions due to the indirect effects these conditions have on trophic relationships. In Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, U.S.A., northern quahogs (Mercenaria mercenaria) reach their highest densities in the areas of the Bay most prone to oxygen depletion. One line of evidence suggests that suboxic events (hypoxia and anoxia) can aid quahogs by excluding predators. Here, we analyze data from long-term surveys of water quality and quahog abundances to test whether a hypoxia-induced predation refuge is strong enough to explain quahog population dynamics in Narragansett Bay. We found that quahog cohorts were larger when they had been exposed to low oxygen conditions as juveniles, consistent with the predation refuge hypothesis. However, cohort size was also strongly associated with location and year settled, suggesting that a predation refuge is but one of a suite of factors influencing M. mercenaria populations.

Except for the Providence River and side embayments like Greenwich Bay, Narragansett Bay can no longer be considered eutrophic. In summer 2012 managed nitrogen treatment in Narragansett Bay achieved a goal of reducing effluent dissolved inorganic nitrogen inputs by over 50%. Narragansett Bay represents a small northeast US estuary that had been heavily loaded with sewage effluent nutrients since the late 1800s. The input reduction was reflected in standing stock nutrients resulting in a statistically significant 60% reduction in concentration. In the Providence River estuary, total nitrogen decreased from 100 pm to about 40 gm, for example. We tested four environmental changes that might be associated with the nitrogen reduction. System apparent production was significantly decreased by 31% and 45% in the upper and mid Bay. Nutrient reductions resulted in statistically improved water clarity in the mid and upper Bay and in a 34% reduction in summer hypoxia. Nitrogen reduction also reduced the winter spring diatom bloom; winter chlorophyll levels after nutrient reduction have been significantly lower than before the reduction. The impact on the Bay will continue to evolve over the next few years and be a natural experiment for other temperate estuaries that will be experiencing nitrogen reduction. To provide perspective we review factors effecting hypoxia in other estuaries with managed nutrient reduction and conclude that, as in Narragansett Bay, physical factors can be as important as nutrients. On a positive note managed nutrient reduction has mitigated further deterioration in most estuaries. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low dissolved oxygen events were characterized in Narragansett Bay (NB), a moderate-size (370 km2) temperate estuary with a complex passage/embayment geometry, using time series from 2001 to 2006 at nine fixed-site monitoring stations. Metrics for event intensity and severity were the event-mean deficit relative to a threshold (mg O2 l−1) and the deficit-duration (mg O2 l−1 day; product of deficit and duration [day]). Hypoxia (threshold 2.9 mg O2 l−1) typically occurred intermittently from late June through August at most stations, as multiple (two to five per season) events each 2 to 7 days long with deficit-duration 2 to 5 mg O2 l−1 day. Conditions were more severe to the north and west, a pattern attributed to a north–south nutrient/productivity gradient and east–west structure of residual circulation. Spatial patterns for suboxic and severely hypoxic events (thresholds 4.8 and 1.4 mg O2 l−1) were similar. The view that different processes govern event variability in different regions, each influenced by local hydrodynamics, is supported by both weak spatial synchronicity (quantified using overlap of event times at different sites) and multiple linear regressions of biological and physical parameters against event severity. Interannual changes were prominent and season-cumulative hypoxia severity correlated with June-mean river runoff and June-mean stratification. Benthic ecological implications for areas experiencing events include: NB hypoxia classifies as periodic/episodic on a near-annual basis; highest direct mortality risk is to sensitive and moderately sensitive sessile species in the northern West Passage and western Greenwich Bay, with some risk to Upper Bay; direct risk to mobile species may be ameliorated by weak spatial synchronicity; and indirect impacts, including reduced growth rates and shifts in predator–prey balances, are very likely throughout the sampled area due to observed suboxic and hypoxic conditions.