SummaryThis article develops the international aspects of the two-handed growth strategy. Both the supply and demand side measures are reviewed. The need to work on both sides simultaneously is stressed, even if the specific topic of cooperation privileges the demand side. The report argues that inflation, while always a risk, should not be currently seen as a major issue. Accordingly, it concentrates on the fiscal and external constraints. These two constraints are strongly interrelated. Openness makes fiscal policy significantly less cost-efficient: the case for cooperative action stems from the possibility of internalizing the income flow leakages which may deter governments from working on the demand side of the economy as they make progress on the supply side.The benefits from cooperation are directly related to openness. In practice, this means that Europe can act autonomously, as it is relatively closed: the two-handed strategy does not need to be made contingent on cooperation with the US and Japan. On the contrary, cooperation within Europe is crucial. Yet cooperation is not synonymous with synchronisation and, in particular, different conditions across countries (inflation, public and external debts) warrant different policies. Flexible cooperation must rely on Germany, France and the UK taking the lead in staging a fiscal expansion to match advances on the supply side.

This article develops the international aspects of the two-handed growth strategy. Both the supply and demand side measures are reviewed. The need to work on both sides simultaneously is stressed, even if the specific topic of cooperation privileges the demand side. The report argues that inflation, while always a risk, should not be currently seen as a major issue. Accordingly, it concentrates on the fiscal and external constraints. These two constraints are strongly interrelated. Openness makes fiscal policy significantly less cost-efficient: the case for cooperative action stems from the possibility of internalizing the income flow leakages which may deter governments from working on the demand side of the economy as they make progress on the supply side. The benefits from cooperation are directly related to openness. In practice, this means that Europe can act autonomously, as it is relatively closed: the two-handed strategy does not need to be made contingent on cooperation with the US and Japan. On the contrary, cooperation within Europe is crucial. Yet cooperation is not synonymous with synchronisation and, in particular, different conditions across countries (inflation, public and external debts) warrant different policies. Flexible cooperation must rely on Germany, France and the UK taking the lead in staging a fiscal expansion to match advances on the supply side.

The purpose and the scope of the present paper are roughly indicated by its title and by its place among the papers dealing with the process of industrialization. It centres around the following questions:

Four decades ago, Hayek and Schumpeter – two giants among the social philosophers of this century – foresaw an irreversible shift towards centralization and bureaucracy. Five decades ago, the American Keynesians, notably Alvin Hansen, predicted secular stagnation. They envisaged a saturation of consumer wants, declining population growth, and a dearth of opportunities for autonomous investments that arise from inventions and innovations and from the existence of a geographic frontier. Both predictions turned out to be wrong. A cyclical decline was mistaken for a trend, similar to the Communist Manifesto which, a century before, had misjudged a period of relative stagnation as an indicator of the inevitable breakdown of the market system…