Livestock production is an integral part of the global food system and the livelihoods of local people, but it also raises questions of environmental sustainability due to issues such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biodiversity decline, land degradation, and water use. Further challenges to extensive livestock systems may arise from changes in climate and the global economy (particularly variation in prices for livestock and carbon). However, significant potential exists for both mitigating these impacts and adapting to change via altering stocking rates, managing fire, and supplementing cattle diets to reduce methane emissions. We developed an integrated, spatio-temporal modelling approach to assess the effectiveness of these options for land management in northern Australia’s tropical savanna under different global change scenarios. Performance was measured against a range of sustainability indicators, including environmental (GHG emissions, biodiversity, water intake, and land condition) and agricultural (profit, beef production) outcomes. Our model shows that maintaining historical stocking rates is not environmentally sustainable due to the accelerated land degradation exacerbated by a changing climate. However, planned early dry season burning substantially reduced emissions, and in our simulations was profitable under all global change scenarios that included a carbon price. Overall, the balance between production and environmental outcomes could be improved by stocking below modelled carrying capacity and implementing fire management. This management scenario was the most profitable (more than double the profit from maintaining historical stocking rates), prevented land degradation, and reduced GHG emissions by 23%. By integrating the cumulative impacts of climate change, external economic drivers, and management actions across a range of sustainability indicators, we show that the future of rangelands in Australia’s savannas has the potential to balance livestock production and environmental outcomes.

Chapter 19 Development in the Northern Rivers of Australia Ian Watson, Ian Watson Agriculture and Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia Search for more papers by this authorAndrew Ash, Andrew Ash Agriculture and Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia Search for more papers by this authorCuan Petheram, Cuan Petheram Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia Search for more papers by this authorMarcus Barber, Marcus Barber Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia Search for more papers by this authorChris Stokes, Chris Stokes Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia Search for more papers by this author Ian Watson, Ian Watson Agriculture and Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia Search for more papers by this authorAndrew Ash, Andrew Ash Agriculture and Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia Search for more papers by this authorCuan Petheram, Cuan Petheram Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia Search for more papers by this authorMarcus Barber, Marcus Barber Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia Search for more papers by this authorChris Stokes, Chris Stokes Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia Search for more papers by this author Book Editor(s):Robert Ferrier, Robert FerrierSearch for more papers by this authorAlan Jenkins, Alan JenkinsSearch for more papers by this author First published: 09 July 2021 https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119531241.ch19 AboutPDFPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShareShare a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Summary This chapter explores the potential for development of new or ‘greenfield’ areas of agriculture in undeveloped catchments of northern Australia and the way in which this will be managed. The rivers of northern Australia which flow into the Timor Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria present a unique case of catchment management. The chapter focuses on development of water resources, such as for irrigated agriculture, which is the most likely way that agriculture will be intensified in the region. Many Australians see a need for Indigenous-driven economic development to provide livelihood benefits to their people but are constrained both by human capacity and investment funding. The chapter provides some background context and describes the biophysical and governance features of catchments in the region. Community groups also play an active role in catchment management. Access to water was critical to the existence and distribution of Indigenous people throughout the course of their habitation of northern Australia. Handbook of Catchment Management 2e, Second Edition RelatedInformation

Advances in open data, big data and data linkage allow us to analyse more data and on a larger scale than ever before. However, this brings with it the challenge of ensuring that Indigenous data sets are used in a way that protects Indigenous rights to that data and maximises benefits for Indigenous peoples. The CARE principles for Indigenous data governance-Collective Benefit, Authority to Control, Responsibility and Ethics-were developed to protect Indigenous data sovereignty, but there are few examples of how to translate these principles into practice. In this paper, we show how these CARE principles can be applied to data collection, integration, analysis and translation practices. Our case study is a project that used data reported by Indigenous ranger groups to capture the multiple benefits of Indigenous land and water management activities. Through this case study, we offer a framework for the design and use of CARE-informed data practices, which can be embedded into project design to enable the ethical and responsible use of Indigenous data to improve Indigenous policies and services. Such practices are critical in the context of ongoing demand for Indigenous data for bureaucratic purposes, and Indigenous interest in using that data to influence management and policy decisions affecting their estates and resources.

This paper reviews information about field observations of vegetation productivity in Australia’s rangeland systems and identifies the need to establish a national initiative to collect net primary productivity (NPP) and biomass data for rangeland pastures. Productivity data are needed for vegetation and carbon model parameterisation, calibration and validation. Several methods can be used to estimate pasture productivity at various spatial and temporal scales, ranging from in situ measurements to satellite-based approaches and biogeochemical modelling. However, there is a barrier to implementing national vegetation and carbon modelling schemes because of the lack of digitised and readily available data derived from field observations, not because of the lack of modelling expertise. Our main goal in this paper is to explore the potential for consolidation of existing NPP and biomass databases for Australian rangelands. A protocol structure was proposed to establish a productivity database for Australia. The TERN (Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Network) national field data network for rangeland pasture productivity monitoring and modelling team could potentially coordinate the database. Government agencies and national and international research institutions could use the outputs from productivity models to inform greenhouse gas emissions and in measuring mitigation activities relevant for reporting against the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and other international obligations. Other applications include monitoring fire danger, tracking ecological restoration and protection, and estimating fodder availability. Australian researchers have the tools needed to succeed in creating such a national database and a robust community of practice to curate it, enhance it and benefit from its availability.

Innovation platforms (IPs) are a way of organizing multistakeholder interactions, marshalling ideas, people and resources to address challenges and opportunities embedded in complex settings. The approach has its roots in theories of complexity, the concept of innovation systems and practices of participatory action research. IPs have been widely adopted across Africa and beyond in recent years as a "must have" tool in a range of "for development" modes of agricultural research. Our experiences with establishing and facilitating nine IPs in local settings in west and central Africa contribute to understanding factors that impact on their effectiveness. The nine IPs were variously focused on developing dairy, crop and/or meat value chains by strengthening mixed crop-livestock production systems or seed systems. Using case study methods, we identified variables that contribute to explaining the performance of these IPs in relation to six domains of change in the agricultural system and the sustainability of changes. Thematic analysis was guided by a conceptual framework which grouped variables into four categories (context, structure, conduct, and process) that interact to influence IP performance. Stronger market connections and value chains were generated through some of these IPs but the most prevalent changes overall were in farm productivity and technical knowledge of producers. The structures evolved in some IPs, akin to those of producer collectives, suggested they were filling an institutional gap locally. The effect of the IPs on deeper level institutions that influence agricultural systems and food security was modest, constraining prospects for the IPs to generate impact at scale. Impacts from the IPs on research and development organisations were uncommon but had transformative significance. Our conceptual framework did not offer optimal guidance to understanding how the many variables that contributed to performance of these IPs combined and sequenced, but the pattern of interactions was consistent with increased social capital being the prime mediator for change. Achieving greater prospects for transformational change and impact at scale warrants at least equal attention to three other interconnected change pathways: through markets, institutions and innovation capacity. Important factors for increased impact are individuals and organisations with capacity to purposefully build and manage inter-organisational and cross-scale networks, early diagnostic studies of the institutional landscape, and adaptive processes of critical reflection and learning that continue beyond the short term. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The development of northern Australia has been a policy ambition for over a century and the desire to do so continues unabated. Attempts to develop the north, especially for more intensive forms of agriculture are not new. In this paper we explore past agricultural developments, including some that persist today and those that have failed, to determine critical factors in success or failure. This was done with the aim of identifying where most effort should focus in supporting contemporary agricultural developments. Although climatic and environmental constraints, including pests and diseases, remain a challenge for agricultural development in these largely tropical rangelands, it is mainly factors associated with finances and investment planning, land tenure and property rights, management, skills, and supply chains, which provide the critical challenges. In particular, the desire to scale-up too rapidly and the associated failure to invest sufficient time and resources in management to learn how to develop appropriate farming systems that are sustainable and economically viable is a recurrent theme through the case study assessment. Scaling up in a more measured way, with a staged approach to the investment in physical capital, should better allow for the inevitable set-backs and the unexpected costs in developing tropical rangelands for agriculture. There are two notable differences from the historical mandate to develop. First is the acknowledgement that development should not disadvantage Indigenous people, that Indigenous people have strong interests and rights in land and water resources and that these resources will be deployed to further Indigenous economic development. Second, assessing environmental impacts of more intensive development is more rigorous than in the past and the resources and timeframes required for these processes are often underestimated.

The objective of this study was to provide a standardised high-level assessment of non-urban water infrastructure proposals, in a manner that assists in prioritisation of non-urban water infrastructure in the Queensland Bulk Water Opportunities Statement whole of government review process. The prioritised list of projects can then be used to guide further assessment of the highest ranked projects on a whole of government basis, or by individual agencies. From a list of 69 potential water storage developments that have had some level of assessment by government or been subject to public discourse, 13 developments were short-listed and then appraised using multi-criteria analysis (MCA). MCA was selected because it allows for the evaluation of decision problems beyond the reach of traditional benefit cost analysis (BCA). MCA is able to consider a broader set of tangible and intangible criteria than BCA. It has a track record of successful applications in water management in Australia and internationally. The approach undertaken was intentionally rapid, and involved assessing existing proposals rather than generating alternative ones. Where there was insufficient detail to assess a proposal, assumptions were made based on the best available information. Seven broad categories were evaluated as part of the MCA: i) water demands; ii) project costs; iii) project benefits; iv) project impacts; v) project risks; vi) project readiness; and vii) project commerciality. Based on a set of basic principles, each category was further disaggregated into a series of criteria groups, resulting in a total of 27 criteria across the seven categories. Importantly each criterion was independent of all others. Categories and criteria were selected in conjunction with representatives from key Queensland Government Departments. Methods were devised for each criterion for consistently assigning scores across the 13 water development options. For consistency in this analysis, each option was assessed primarily for supplying water to agricultural areas, although potential demand from other nearby industries was also considered. As part of the MCA process, criteria are typically assigned weights to indicate the relative importance of different criteria and categories. In this project criteria weights were not assigned, rather the criteria weights will be subsequently assigned by the user according to key stakeholder’s explicit objectives. Importantly, this prioritisation does not constitute a ‘pre-feasibility assessment’ and does not replace the need to develop a business case or to undertake regulatory requirements for approval (such as environmental impact assessment). Rather, its purpose is as an exploratory tool to facilitate discussion about the relative merits of alternative water development proposals and how they may be modified so as to achieve better proposals or better regional economic outcomes. The MCA was performed using the Multi Criteria Analysis Tool (MCAT). This report provides the technical documentation explaining the criteria used to populate the MCA and the assumptions and rationale for assigning ratings to each criterion, for each of the short-listed water storage developments.

On-ground investment in developing northern Australia's agriculture has not fully matched the level of on-going interest in the subject. On-ground investment requires that both investors and regulators have confidence in resource availability; uncertainty inevitably leads regulators to make conservative resource allocation decisions which, in turn, erode investor confidence. One way of increasing the confidence of investors and regulators is to provide information at a finer scale than is currently available. In January 2012 the Office of Northern Australia commissioned CSIRO to undertake a comprehensive agricultural assessment of the Flinders and the Gilbert catchments in the gulf region of northern Australia, an area two thirds the size of Victoria, and to do so in less than 2 years. This paper provides an overview of the findings of the Assessment and highlights the development of new methods for the rapid acquisition of data in vast and remote landscapes, such as northern Australia, and for quantifying uncertainty in soil parameter and hydrological predictions. It was found that, despite their close proximity, the Flinders and the Gilbert catchments varied considerably, highlighting that northern Australia is not one homogenous area and that to properly understand the scale and nature of development opportunities - and the risks that attend them - a detailed understanding of catchment resources is necessary. For the Flinders catchment it was found that farm scale off-stream storages could enable 10,000 to 20,000 ha of irrigation in 70-80% of years. For the Gilbert catchment it was found that in-stream dams could enable 20,000 to 30,000 ha of irrigation in 85% of years. Significant water use would amplify the ecological challenges of the dry years but at these scales of development has a moderate impact in the 'normal' and wet years.

The financial health of beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia has declined markedly over the last decade due to an escalation in production and marketing costs and a real decline in beef prices. Historically, gains in animal productivity have offset the effect of declining terms of trade on farm incomes. This raises the question of whether future productivity improvements can remain a key path for lifting enterprise profitability sufficient to ensure that the industry remains economically viable over the longer term. The key objective of this study was to assess the production and financial implications for north Australian beef enterprises of a range of technology interventions (development scenarios), including genetic gain in cattle, nutrient supplementation, and alteration of the feed base through introduced pastures and forage crops, across a variety of natural environments. To achieve this objective a beef systems model was developed that is capable of simulating livestock production at the enterprise level, including reproduction, growth and mortality, based on energy and protein supply from natural C4 pastures that are subject to high inter-annual climate variability. Comparisons between simulation outputs and enterprise performance data in three case study regions suggested that the simulation model (the Northern Australia Beef Systems Analyser) can adequately represent the performance beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia. Testing of a range of development scenarios suggested that the application of individual technologies can substantially lift productivity and profitability, especially where the entire feedbase was altered through legume augmentation. The simultaneous implementation of multiple technologies that provide benefits to different aspects of animal productivity resulted in the greatest increases in cattle productivity and enterprise profitability, with projected weaning rates increasing by 25%, liveweight gain by 40% and net profit by 150% above current baseline levels, although gains of this magnitude might not necessarily be realised in practice. While there were slight increases in total methane output from these development scenarios, the methane emissions per kg of beef produced were reduced by 20% in scenarios with higher productivity gain. Combinations of technologies or innovative practices applied in a systematic and integrated fashion thus offer scope for providing the productivity and profitability gains necessary to maintain viable beef enterprises in northern Australia into the future.

Extensive cattle grazing is the dominant land use in northern Australia. It has been suggested that grazing intensity and rainfall have profound effects on the dynamics of soil nutrients in northern Australia’s semi-arid rangelands. Previous studies have found positive, neutral and negative effects of grazing pressure on soil nutrients. These inconsistencies could be due to short-term experiments that do not capture the slow dynamics of some soil nutrients and the effects of interannual variability in rainfall. In a long-term cattle grazing trial in northern Australia on Brown Sodosol–Yellow Kandosol complex, we analysed soil organic matter and mineral nitrogen in surface soils (0–10 cm depth) 11, 12 and 16 years after trial establishment on experimental plots representing moderate stocking (stocked at the long-term carrying capacity for the region) and heavy stocking (stocked at twice the long-term carrying capacity). Higher soil organic matter was found under heavy stocking, although grazing treatment had little effect on mineral and total soil nitrogen. Interannual variability had a large effect on soil mineral nitrogen, but not on soil organic matter, suggesting that soil nitrogen levels observed in this soil complex may be affected by other indirect pathways, such as climate. The effect of interannual variability in rainfall and the effects of other soil types need to be explored further.

The factors affecting the adoption of irrigation by landholders, using a case study of a government-managed irrigation water release in north-west Queensland, Australia, where current land use is dominated by extensive beef-cattle production, were investigated. The study was based on multiple data sources – interview data from family-owned agricultural enterprises, historical and contemporary documents and contemporary media analysis, workshop participation and field work. The study revealed multiple drivers and constraints, which affect the rate, timing and location of adoption of irrigation by family-owned grazing enterprises. The key finding was that there are individual, group and regional interests in irrigation development but that considerable social and individual learning is required for adoption of irrigation to occur. It was found that there is a prominent role for knowledge brokers — as individuals, irrigator groups, and trusted brokers of science information — in facilitating learning and change. An insight, relevant to governments that support irrigation developments is that interventions that aid and support learning can play a role in facilitating the land-use transition for individual grazing properties to irrigated agriculture.