To further implement an ecosystem approach to management of the small pelagic fishery in South Africa, we attempted to develop functional relationships between spatialised time-series of the biomass of three small pelagic fish species and the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of four linefish species (i.e. species caught on hook and line, excluding longlines) that could be used to account for the forage needs of dependent predators. Granger causality tests indicated significant effects of anchovyEngraulis encrasicolusbiomass on silver kobArgyrosomus inodorusand yellowtailSeriola lalandiCPUE, significant effects of sardineSardinops sagaxbiomass on geelbekAtractoscion aequidensCPUE, but no significant effects of biomass of west coast redeye round herringEtrumeus whiteheadiand east coast redeye round herringEtruemus wongratanaion any linefish CPUE. Sequentialt-test analysis of regime shift (STARS) indicated temporal matching in regimes between anchovy biomass east of Cape Agulhas (EoCA) and yellowtail west coast (west of Cape Point) CPUE, and between sardine biomass EoCA and geelbek southwest coast (Cape Point to Cape Infanta) CPUE. Convergent cross mapping found no causality for anchovy biomass EoCA on yellowtail west coast CPUE but causality in the reverse direction. A high degree of causality in both directions for sardine biomass EoCA and geelbek southwest coast CPUE was observed, indicating strong predator-prey interaction, and a highly significant linear relationship between sardine biomass EoCA in year(n-1)and geelbek southwest coast CPUE in yearnwas obtained. This functional relationship should be considered for inclusion as a proxy for ecosystem state in management procedures that adopt the ecosystem approach to fisheries for the South African small pelagic fishery.

 PLUME consists of a curvilinear, pie-shaped grid located at the southwestern portion of South Africa from 28°S to 40°S and from 9°E to 24°E.  Horizontal model resolution ranges from 9 km along the coast and increases linearly to 16 km offshore, and there are 20 vertical levels, with high resolution near the surface and a gradually decreasing resolution towards the bottom.  The PLUME grid has three open (seaward) boundaries and an active open boundary scheme to estimate horizontal velocities in the vicinity of the boundaries; features produced within the model are transferred to the open ocean following a radiation condition and inputs from the surrounding ocean are forced by seasonal time-averaged outputs of the Agulhas As Primitive Equations (AGAPE) basin-scale ocean model.  The model itself is forced by heat and salinity fluxes from the COADS ocean surface monthly climatology and the ERS1/2 wind stress scheme, a real weekly wind field with 1°×1° resolution from the actual years simulated by the PLUME model (8 years representing the period July 1991 to June 1999).  Output data for each grid point were stored every two simulated days.  Although the model is forced by repeated climatology (i.e. no interannual variability in the forcing fields) there are pronounced interannual differences between individual years, with intrinsic mesoscale activity considered to be the major contributor to interannual variability.  The model was qualitatively validated via comparison of outputs with observed data both at the surface (e.g. SST) and at deeper levels.

Off South Africa, anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax are the main prey of African penguins Spheniscus demersus. The combined spawner biomass of these fish increased from less than one million t in 1996 to more than nine million t in 2001 and then decreased to four million t in 2005. The combined biomass of young-of-the-year of these species increased from 0.2 million t in 1996 to 3.2 million t in 2001 before failing to 0.4 million t in 2005. There was a large eastward shift in the distribution of sardine between 1999 and 2005. The number of African penguins breeding in the Western Cape Province increased from 18 000 pairs in 1996 to more than 30 000 pairs from 2001 to 2005 before failing to 21 000 pairs in 2006, as the availability of fish decreased near breeding localities. Numbers of penguins breeding and numbers of birds in adult plumage moulting were significantly correlated with the young-of-the-year biomass of anchovy and sardine and with the available biomass of spawning sardine. The increase in the number of penguins breeding was mainly attributable to a greater proportion of birds breeding and improved breeding success. The decrease probably resulted from high mortality. Delayed first breeding and abstinence from breeding during periods of food shortage may both increase survivorship when food is scarce and enable seabirds rapidly to take advantage of improved feeding conditions. Although long-lived seabirds are buffered against short-term variability in food supplies, environmental change that influences the abundance and availability of prey can have severe consequences for central-place foragers, such as penguins, if there is long-term displacement of prey to regions where no suitable breeding localities occur.

Cape anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus spawners in the southern Benguela showed an eastward shift in their distribution on the Agulhas Bank that occurred abruptly in 1996 and has since persisted. We assessed whether this shift was environmentally mediated by examining sea surface temperature data from different regions of the Agulhas Bank, which showed that in 1996 the inner shelf of the Agulhas Bank to the east of Cape Agulhas abruptly became 0.5 degrees C colder than in previous years and has since remained that way. In addition, signals, coherent with the 1996 shift recorded in sea surface temperatures, were also found in atmospheric surface pressure and zonal wind data for that region; interannual coastal SST variability is also shown to be correlated with zonal wind-stress forcing. As a result, increased wind-induced coastal upwelling east of Cape Agulhas is proposed as the main driver of the observed cooling in the coastal region. The synchrony between the environmental and biological signals suggests that the eastward shift in anchovy spawner distribution was environmentally mediated and arose from a change in environmental forcing that altered the relative favourability for spawning between regions to the west and east of Cape Agulhas. The results highlight how a relatively minor change in environmental conditions can lead to a drastic spatial reorganisation of the life history of one species in an ecosystem.

Human amniotic fluid was compared with Ham's F-10 culture medium as a possible alternative for use in in vitro fertilisation. The cleavage success of mouse embryos in human amniotic fluid (experimental group) was 92% compared with 86% in Ham's F-10 medium. It is concluded that human amniotic fluid is a viable alternative culture medium for mouse embryos.